UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Chase Hooper defeats Mitch Ramirez by Submission
Round 1 · 2:15
Hooper vs Ramirez — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
A straight left hand created the opening Hooper needed to change levels and get the takedown.
Hooper transitioned to the back and locked in a body triangle to remove the escape.
The rear-naked choke forced the tap at 2:15 of round one.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Hooper
Hooper is the far more proven grappler and the fight's only real submission threat — eight of his wins are subs, and against Guida, Miller and Borshchev he dragged credible lightweights into his scramble-heavy chaos. If this hits the mat, it is his world.
Case for Ramirez
Ramirez's path is to keep it standing and violent. He finishes at an 88% clip with heavy kicks and forward pressure, and Hooper has just been stopped twice in a row by opponents who beat him to the punch before the grappling could start. Crack Hooper early and the takedown game never arrives.
What We Were Watching For
- Can Ramirez stuff the entry? Hooper lives on getting it to the floor — Ramirez's takedown defense is the hinge of the fight.
- Hooper's chin: two straight stoppage losses — does he still walk forward into range, or has caution crept in?
- Ramirez's UFC-level cardio: he is 0-2 in the Octagon and fades late regionally, and Hooper's pace punishes slow tanks.
- Scramble vs slug: the first clean exchange usually decides which fight this becomes.
Records & career stats
- 4.44 3.27
- 40% 38%
- 2.97 3.77
- 55% 33%
- 75% 88%
- 16-5-1
- Record
- 8-3-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- United States
- Nationality
- United States
- 26
- Age
- 33
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 08:48
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 06:58
- Combat Sport & Fitness
- Team
- Syndicate MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chase Hooper · Dec
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
FightIQ's public record lists Chase Hooper as its pick over Mitch Ramirez.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chase Hooper · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
Picks Hooper to find the back after Ramirez's guillotine attempts fail, calling a late first-round submission.
“I'll go Chase Hooper. I'm [ __ ] worried about it though. And I'm allowed”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chase Hooper
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
Gives Hooper another chance on the strength of his high-level jiu-jitsu edge over Ramirez.
“Chase Hooper to get this one done by submission. I know Ramirez is good”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chase Hooper
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
Takes Hooper if he uses the grappling advantage rather than lingering in striking exchanges.
“And I'm going with the minus300 favorite just because the path is so clear and so just because the path is so clear and so there. But I also have zero trust in the there. But I also have zero trust in the guy. And I will probably I'm not bad. guy. And I will probably I'm not bad. I'm not never laying minus 300 on Chase I'm not never laying minus 300 on Chase Hooper. But [snorts]”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chase Hooper · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
Picks Hooper by first-round submission, viewing the matchup as a chance for him to rebound.
“>> Yeah, I'm picking Trooper Chase Hooper here.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.5% (6 hit, 5 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chase Hooper · Sub
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Chase Hooper by submission.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chase Hooper
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
Makes Hooper the pure pick because he has shown more than Ramirez, while calling the betting position dog-or-pass.
“of the price, you know. If this is a pick'em, I'm going Chase Hooper all day.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mitch Ramirez · KO/TKO
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
Calls the upset for Ramirez by knockout, citing Hooper's recent stoppage losses and Ramirez's power-punching style.
“Ramirez to get the finish of Chase Hooper. So Mitch Ramirez by knockout”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mitch Ramirez
Fight result: Chase Hooper · Submission
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Mitch Ramirez.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Marcel Dorff Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
7 of 9 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 7 sportsbooks
Favoured: Hooper (75%) Called it
Hooper defeats Ramirez · Sub R1
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