UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Dricus Du Plessis defeats Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Du Plessis vs Usman — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Du Plessis established the jab and leg kicks early, then landed a hard right hand to the temple that visibly wobbled Usman in round one.
Knees up the middle were the recurring weapon as Du Plessis hurt Usman repeatedly across the opening two rounds.
Usman found stretches of success as the fight wore on, but Du Plessis hurt him again in the fourth and managed the fifth to close out the decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Du Plessis
Du Plessis wins on pressure, pace and finishing. He took the middleweight title off Israel Adesanya and defended it twice against Sean Strickland, and his 87% finish rate — 11 of his 23 wins by submission — comes from an awkward, relentless volume that drowns opponents into the championship rounds. Against a 39-year-old climbing up in weight, five rounds of that pace is the great equalizer.
Case for Usman
Usman wins if his wrestling still fires at 185. One of the most dominant welterweight champions the division has seen, he is built on suffocating top control and a jab — a single submission against eleven decisions tells you he grinds rather than gambles. Du Plessis's one clear vulnerability is exactly Usman's best weapon: Khamzat Chimaev out-wrestled DDP, and if Usman can put him on the mat and hold him there, the pressure never gets going.
What We Were Watching For
- The wrestling exchanges: Chimaev exposed Du Plessis's takedown defense — can a 39-year-old Usman still shoot and hold top position at a new, heavier weight?
- Pace vs age: Du Plessis's five-round pressure against Usman moving up a division at 39 — does the tank empty late?
- The shared Chimaev loss: both men were beaten by Khamzat Chimaev; whose loss looks more fixable in this matchup?
- Usman's output: he is 2-3 in his last five and hasn't finished a fight in years — can he win rounds without banking control time?
Records & career stats
- 5.21 4.13
- 54% 55%
- 4.24 2.86
- 50% 90%
- 87% 48%
- 23-3-0
- Record
- 21-4-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- South Africa
- Nationality
- Nigeria
- 32
- Age
- 39
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 15:48
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 18:12
- CIT MMA
- Team
- Blackzilians - Boca Raton, FL
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Picks Dricus Du Plessis by decision.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 82.6% (19 hit, 4 miss, across 23 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 23 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Dricus Du Plessis as its pick over Kamaru Usman.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Takes Du Plessis by knockout, believing he has enough left to handle Usman with power and pressure.
“Kamar Usman in a big way. So we're going Drius Duplexie by knockout UFC Oklahoma”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Picks Du Plessis' five-round pace, body and leg kicking, and youth to produce a third-round TKO over Usman.
“I've got Dricus Du Plessis getting this one done, and I think he's going to TKO Kamaru Usman in round three”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Takes Du Plessis in a competitive matchup, expecting the layoff to have addressed his defensive wrestling.
“It's a great fight, but I got to side with DDP by a competitive decision here”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Backs Du Plessis to produce the bigger striking moments and doubts Usman can sustain control.
“it looked awful in the Shawn Brady fight. It looked awful against Usman. We”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Livid Larry MMA leans to Dricus Du Plessis for a close decision victory over Kamaru Usman.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.0% 34 20
- Method Accuracy 79.2% 19 5
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
MMA JOEY picks Dricus Du Plessis to win by decision.
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Lucrative James makes Dricus Du Plessis his official UFC Oklahoma City prediction by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Takes Du Plessis to finish Usman after the late rounds, expecting his pressure to make Usman's wrestling harder to sustain.
“and put him down for good. So, I got Dricus Du Plessis to come out here, get”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
Picks Dricus Du Plessis by a third-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dricus Du Plessis · Dec
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City preview has Jesse Holland picking Dricus Du Plessis by unanimous decision.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Kamaru Usman
Fight result: Dricus Du Plessis · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Kamaru Usman.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: UFC GamblingAddicts Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; James Blissett Hit; Half The Battle Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Jesse Holland Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
12 of 13 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 7 sportsbooks
Favoured: Du Plessis (65%) Called it
Du Plessis defeats Usman · Dec
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