UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Dione Barbosa defeats Anna Melisano by Submission
Round 1 · 4:04
Barbosa vs Melisano — Women's Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Barbosa closed distance early and took Melisano down inside the opening exchanges.
She advanced through dominant positions, mixing ground-and-pound with submission attempts.
As Melisano came up, Barbosa leapt to the back and finished with a rear-naked choke at 4:04.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City preliminary results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Barbosa
Barbosa is the more proven grappler and the only fighter here with UFC wins — judo entries and top control that beat Belbita, Gatto and Kareckaite. Against a short-notice debutant, her Octagon experience and ability to turn the fight into a grappling test are the safest edges in the matchup.
Case for Melisano
Melisano arrives unbeaten in her last five and finishing at will on the regional scene — a knockout, a rear-naked choke and a doctor stoppage among them. On short notice against a UFC Performance Institute grappler the ask is steep, so her path is to keep it standing and swing the debut nerves onto a Barbosa who has stopped only four of nine opponents.
What We Were Watching For
- Debut on short notice: can Melisano handle Barbosa's grappling pressure without a full camp?
- Barbosa's judo against Melisano's power: does the fight live in the clinch or in open-space exchanges?
- Barbosa's finishing drought: a 44% finish rate — does she have the pop to stop a durable debutant, or is this a decision?
- Experience gap: Barbosa has UFC rounds banked, Melisano has none — how much does that tell late?
Records & career stats
- 2.15 0.49
- 64% 29%
- 2.29 1.23
- 64% 50%
- 44% 50%
- 9-4-0
- Record
- 6-1-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
- 34
- Age
- 29
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 10:25
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 04:04
- UFC Performance Institute
- Team
- Spartan Fitness MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dione Barbosa · Dec
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
FightIQ's public record lists Dione Barbosa as its pick over Anna Melisano.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dione Barbosa
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
Takes Barbosa to outgrapple Melisano, citing the physical flyweight matchup and Barbosa's top-control advantage.
“prediction on him most likely and I'll go Barbosa to outgrapple her. Let's keep”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dione Barbosa · Sub
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
Picks Barbosa's experience and tested level over Melisano's inexperience, calling a submission win.
“She'd probably put hands on Melissano, or probably sub her. I'm going to go”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dione Barbosa
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
Takes Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling over the debuting Melisano.
“So, I'm going to side with Barbosza by a decision, but I definitely see a world”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dione Barbosa
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
Takes Barbosa to use her physical grappling edge against the short-notice newcomer.
“going Donnie Barbosa to win this fight. I'm going to take her to win this fight”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dione Barbosa
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
Expects Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling to overwhelm the debuting Melisano on the mat.
“I think Dion Barbosa is gonna be able to take her down, mount her, take her back,”
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.4% 31 23
- Method Accuracy 68.2% 15 7
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dione Barbosa
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
Picks Barbosa to finish Melisano, emphasizing Barbosa's experience and well-roundedness at the price.
“dominantly. So, I'm going to pick Deonna Barbosa to come out here and finish Anna”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Anna Melisano
Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Anna Melisano.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Mike Finch Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
7 of 8 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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