UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Tommy McMillen defeats Alberto Montes by KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:29
McMillen vs Montes — Featherweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
McMillen was the aggressor throughout, pressing forward and setting a punishing pace.
Accumulated body and head strikes wore Montes down across the first two rounds.
McMillen hurt Montes late in round three and raised his output until the stoppage at 3:29.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for McMillen
McMillen is unbeaten and finishes 90% of the time, and the way he does it — turning ugly early collisions into front-headlock chokes and back-takes — travels well against anyone who panics in a scramble. His debut over Zecchini said the pace and composure scaled straight into the UFC.
Case for Montes
Montes is the more polished grappler and the harder man to rush. His lone loss is four years old, and he has since strung together submission wins capped by choking out Ricky Turcios — the kind of neck-hunting patience that can catch an aggressive McMillen diving in.
What We Were Watching For
- Two chokes hunting one neck: both want the front-headlock and back — whoever wins the first scramble likely finishes.
- McMillen's undefeated composure against Montes' veteran calm — who forces the other out of rhythm?
- Montes' one blemish was a knockout — is he vulnerable if McMillen's messy power lands clean early?
- Cardio into round three: both carry finishing gas, but this is the deepest either has been tested at UFC level.
Records & career stats
- 11.13 4.70
- 58% 53%
- 5.06 11.61
- 79% 78%
- 90% 67%
- 10-0-0
- Record
- 12-1-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- Venezuela
- 28
- Age
- 32
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 11:52
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 08:56
- Red Hawk Academy
- Team
- Goat Shed
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Tommy McMillen
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
Backs McMillen's pressure and toughness to pull out the win, while forecasting a stoppage without specifying its type.
“That's going to be my pick here. I'm going McMillan stoppage. I think he can”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
Picks McMillen's pressure, reach and wrestling to wear Montes down for a second-round TKO.
“And I think McMillan's going to put him away in round two by TKO, knees up”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Tommy McMillen
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
Takes McMillen to thrive in a chaotic, competitive matchup with Montes.
“McMillan. He thrives and lives in the chaos. Give me Tommy gun here, man.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Tommy McMillen by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Tommy McMillen
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Tommy McMillen.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alberto Montes · Dec
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Alberto Montes as its pick over Tommy Mcmillen.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alberto Montes
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
Takes Montes because one grappling exchange can expose his proven front-choke game.
“So, I'm going to go Montes by sub here. Um, that's his win condition. That's how”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alberto Montes
Fight result: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO
Rates Montes as the more technical all-around fighter and picks him to take the upset.
“MMA. And I think Montes is going to come out here and get this upset. Next up in”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Analyst picks: FightIQ Miss; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.
5 of 8 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 7 sportsbooks
Favoured: McMillen (65%) Called it
McMillen defeats Montes · KO/TKO R3
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