Daniel Levy's long-running MMA podcast and YouTube channel covering UFC previews and full-card prediction shows.
Half The Battle on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 40 of 60 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 40 20
- Method 9 3
- Round 1
- Underdog 4 6
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Half The Battle scored 71.0 after 7 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), Michael Chiesa (#13). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 5.6 below, from 7.9 below at Du Plessis vs. Usman.
71.0 now, across 7 cards. The first 2 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
40 of 60 — 67% now, from 60% at their first scored card.
-
Method
75% 9 of 12 correct winners that named a method
-
Round
0 of 1 correct winner that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
-
Underdog
40% 4 of 10 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 71.0 7 hit · 5 miss
- UFC 330 73.1 6 hit · 5 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 77.2 8 hit · 1 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 71.2 6 hit · 2 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 68.4 7 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 329 65.8 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 65.0 3 hit · 2 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Silva vs. Delgado
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrich vs Tarin | Aldrich · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Bahamondes vs Salikhov | Bahamondes · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Cortes-Acosta vs Blaydes | Cortes-Acosta · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Elliott vs Chairez | Chairez · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Fiorot vs Grasso | Fiorot · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Garcia vs Rongzhu | Rongzhu · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Klose vs Gantt | Gantt · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Martinez vs Ige | Martinez · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| McMillen vs Rahiki | McMillen · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Moreno vs Morales | Morales · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Silva vs Delgado | Silva · to win | Upcoming | |||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 5
- Method 2 2
- Round 1
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurmagomedov · Dec | Yadong · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. “I'll take Umar Nagamemed off to win a decision here.” | |||||
| Xiaonan · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision. “I'm going to pick her to come out here and win this unanimous decision in China.” | |||||
| Asakura · KO/TKO · R1 | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Kai Asakura to stop Aori Qileng in the first round as the sharper striker. “Pick Kai Asakura ... knock out Aori in the first round.” | |||||
| Sumudaerji · KO/TKO | Sumudaerji · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji to stop Alex Perez, citing their prior meeting. “Sue is going to come out here and knock out Alex Perez.” | |||||
| Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO | Ce · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. to score an upset knockout in a standing brawl. | |||||
| Hasan · KO/TKO | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Bilal Hasan to exploit Nilson Rojas's striking openings for a knockout. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima by decision for cleaner, quicker counter work. “I suspect and I predict Andre Lima comes out here and wins a decision.” | |||||
| Nuzzi · to win | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Francesco Nuzzi as an underdog on activity and cleaner striking. | |||||
| Jenkins · to win | Woodson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Jack Jenkins for an upset through his leg kicks and game plan. | |||||
| Santiago · to win | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Hector Santiago as the live underdog in a standing fight. | |||||
| Polastri · to win | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Julia Polastri for her pressure, output, and possible takedowns. | |||||
| Meng · to win | Nelson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ding Meng for his first UFC win on experience. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 5
- Method 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Orolbai to put Wells through the grinder, without committing to a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · to win | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Brahimaj and expects an early finish, but does not give a committed type or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Pure pick is Fernando without a method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Gore · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Gore winner-only. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.01 — (50% − 49.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · KO/TKO | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Predicts Johnson probably knocks McConico out; the hedge is retained and no round is assigned. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · to win | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Fernandes winner-only. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Álvarez to break Njokuani down down the stretch, without a formal finish-method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Ribovics by knockout without a round call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Abdul-Malik winner-only. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · to win | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Dern but is unsure whether she finishes by submission or another route. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Makhachev but does not commit to a finish method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 1
- Method 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Salkilld · to win | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks the favourite to take the biggest win of his career, having just quoted the line at Salkilld -135. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · to win | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Ferreira to beat Quarantillo, without a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · KO/TKO | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees del Valle's grappling and striking plus his youth overwhelming a 42-year-old Elkins. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · to win | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Sees Miller's technique as clearly superior here. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Sees Thainara winning at least two rounds and taking the decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Montanha to upset Sutherland. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.30 — (50% − 35.0%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 40.5%. Lopes · to win | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes the upset, Lopes. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to win | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Asplund, hedging between a stoppage and a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller without a method. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 2
- Method 1
- RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · to win | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Says both men will engage but D-Rod is the one who gets dropped; Medic is in his prime and has fought three times since Rodriguez last fought, coming into camp already in shape. “I just see a lot of positives on the side of Medic here, and I think he gets the biggest win of his career in his first UFC main event.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · to win | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Has been fading Blachowicz for years and thinks Stirling's range, speed, timing and wrestling defence catch the 43-year-old at the perfect time. Explicitly refuses to call the method. “I don't know if it's going to be a knockout or a decision, but I am going to pick [Navajo Stirling].” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · to win | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls Rakic a fraud he has no long-term confidence in, but says the move to heavyweight is right and the speed and athleticism edge over a slow 40-year-old Tybura should get him back on track. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Says Todorovic is trending downward after knee injuries and is phoning in his camps, while Valentin is now training with elite guys in Vegas and can find an opening off a Todorovic mistake. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · KO/TKO · R1 | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Thinks Cepo is getting a deliberately favourable debut matchup, and that Urbina would need to weather a serious storm and drag Cepo into a fatigue state before the takedowns land. “I think [Cepo]'s going to come out here and knock Gilbert Urbina out in the very first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Names Oliveira his fighter to watch and a future top-10 guy — cerebral, technical, good takedown defence — while Elliott has fallen off since the Hafez win. “I think he's going to show that on Saturday when he comes out here and knocks out Oban Elliott.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · to win | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls this his fight to watch and defends Musayev over the Bahamondes fence-grab, but sees Klein as faster, hungrier and five years younger with fantastic takedown defence. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · to win | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Says Buzukja is coming off a bad knockout only three months ago with no real recovery time, while Grad took proper time off after his own KO loss and has the more functional, well-rounded game. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 3
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · to win | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Du Plessis to finish Usman after the late rounds, expecting his pressure to make Usman's wrestling harder to sustain. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Duncan to knock Cannonier out, contrasting Duncan's durability with Cannonier's age and recent decline. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Barbosa to finish Melisano, emphasizing Barbosa's experience and well-roundedness at the price. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · to win | Coria · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Coria to dominate Nicoll, citing Coria's clear standing in the matchup and Nicoll's lack of UFC success. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Rodrigues to knock out Franco, while noting the unanswered questions if the matchup stays on the mat. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Bashi · to win | Delgado · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Bashi as the underdog based on his takedown threat and a likely grappling advantage over Delgado. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · to win | Kline · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Kline to make a statement, praising her hunger, physicality and potential against Ricci. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.1%. Montes · to win | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Montes as the more technical all-around fighter and picks him to take the upset. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · to win | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Makes Hooper the pure pick because he has shown more than Ramirez, while calling the betting position dog-or-pass. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Lebosnoyani · to win | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Rolls the dice on underdog Lebosnoyani, believing the line underrates his grappling threat and ability to compete. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.21 — (50% − 39.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 2
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Mario Bautista to upset Cory Sandhagen in a close rematch. He expects a one-round-apiece type fight decided by a single takedown, strike or late moment, and favors Bautista's current form and hunger coming off his career-best win. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.15 — (50% − 42.5%) ÷ 50%. * Projects a close, split-decision-style fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · to win | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Makes Gable Steveson the straightforward pick in his UFC debut. He treats the wrestling pedigree and matchup dynamics as too wide a gap to back Elisha Ellison, while not committing to a specific finish method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Reese · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans slightly toward Zachary Reese in a volatile fight because he trusts Reese more once the early danger settles. He says Gandra's power and physicality could be a problem, but thinks Reese can take over if he finds range and survives the opening exchanges. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. * Low-confidence lean; he says either man winning would not surprise him. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Durden · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Cody Durden to outwork Alessandro Costa if he avoids the big power shots. He acknowledges Costa has the harder one-shot threat, but expects Durden's pace, wrestling and top control to carry enough of the fight. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. * Personal connection disclosed in the video; he says Durden is his friend and he would never pick against him. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · to win | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Damian Pinas as the younger, more explosive prospect with the athleticism to outgrow Cesar Almeida quickly. He thinks Pinas can strike with Almeida and may even show wrestling wrinkles against an opponent with takedown-defense concerns. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 2
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Levy favors Topuria as the much cleaner boxer and thinks Gaethje's tendency to get hurt makes him ripe for Topuria's combinations. He expects Topuria to knock Gaethje out and retain the lightweight belt. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Levy thinks Ruffy can weather Chandler's early wrestling threat, punish Chandler's calf-kick vulnerability and eventually land upstairs. He calls for Ruffy to beat Chandler and knock him out. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · to win | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Levy frames Lewis as live early for a knockout, but says that if Hokit survives the first round and a half, his pace, wrestling and pressure should break Lewis.
“I'm going to go Josh Hokit to continue the big streak.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · to win | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Levy sees Daukaus as a live opponent but thinks Nickal's RDR loss may sharpen him, and expects Nickal to get back on track against Daukaus.
“I'm going to pick Bo Nickal to win this fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 40.5%. Garcia · to win | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Levy likes Garcia as an underdog because he believes Garcia has better MMA boxing fundamentals, footwork and minute-winning tools, while Lopes relies more on opportunistic finishing moments.
“I'm going to pick Steve Garcia to come out here, defeat Diego Lopez.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Half The Battle's logged calls.