Aleksandar Rakić defeats Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Round 3 · 5:00
Rakić vs Tybura — Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Rakic took the first round with better output and cleaner blows in his heavyweight debut. The contest then moved into the second round.
Tybura pushed back through the second and third rounds. Rakic had already taken the opening round.
The contest went the full fifteen minutes and Rakic took the unanimous verdict.
- Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade main card results
Watch
More from this fight.
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Signature moments
Signature moments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: We Want Picks called it; The MMA Guru called it; Michael Chiesa called it; Half The Battle called it; DFS By The Numbers perfect call; AJ called it; MMAPREDICTIONGURU called it; Bedtime MMA perfect call; HopperoMMA called it; JakeGerberMMA perfect call; James Lynch perfect call; Bookie Beatdown called it; KennyOkoyeMMA called it.
13 of 13 nailed it · 4 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Rakić · to win. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Backs Rakic’s footwork, striking and takedown defence despite a suspect chin, while calling the price risky money on a fighter coming off four straight losses.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 44 of 65 The MMA Guru: predicted Rakić · KO/TKO. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Expects Rakic's size, movement and leg kicks to break down the plodding Tybura, then finish him on top after sprawling on a desperation takedown.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks, 16 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 29 of 42 Michael Chiesa: predicted Rakić · to win. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Likes the move to heavyweight for Rakic, who he says is oversized for 205 and will perform better without the cut, with a clear athleticism, speed and power edge over the 40-year-old Tybura.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 42 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 33 of 48 Half The Battle: predicted Rakić · to win. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Calls Rakic a fraud he has no long-term confidence in, but says the move to heavyweight is right and the speed and athleticism edge over a slow 40-year-old Tybura should get him back on track.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 48 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 60 of 88 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Rakić · Decision. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Perfect call.
Frames it as the battle of who is least washed — Rakic has not won in five years, but he is the more skilled striker with better takedown defence against a Tybura who looks horrible.
Track record: winner called in 60 of 88 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 52 of 71 AJ: predicted Rakić · to win. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Thinks Rakic's speed, footwork and kicks at his new heavyweight build are far too much for a fading 40-year-old Tybura, who has no real power to threaten him.
Track record: winner called in 52 of 71 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Rakić · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Thinks Rakic has every base covered against an aging, fading Tybura — far faster at range, with no realistic takedown threat against him — and calls a quick blitz finish.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 67 of 99 Bedtime MMA: predicted Rakić · Decision. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Perfect call.
Sees a clear striking and speed edge for Rakic plus leg kicks and takedowns, with Tybura fading badly into the later rounds. Openly flags Rakic's chin as the one way it goes wrong.
“I'm gonna go with [Rakic] by decision, but I'm not fully confident.”
Track record: winner called in 67 of 99 resolved picks, 28 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 41 of 65 HopperoMMA: predicted Rakić · KO/TKO · R3. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Calls Tybura a beatable gatekeeper who has looked awful in his last two, while Rakic is the far better, taller, more powerful striker who should suit heavyweight better.
Track record: winner called in 41 of 65 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Rakić · Decision. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Perfect call.
Calls Tybura slow, sloppy and washed and says Rakic should be faster and sharper even in his heavyweight debut, settling on a wide, coasting decision.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
James Lynch Analyst called 17 of 24 James Lynch: predicted Rakić · Decision. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Perfect call.
Thinks Rakic is on paper the better and smarter fighter and will not go for broke as he did against Prochazka, but flags real risk in a first heavyweight outing.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 24 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 14 of 24 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Rakić · to win. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Takes Rakic on speed and leg kicks moving up to heavyweight, while flatly refusing to bet him at the price because of the chin, the cardio and Tybura's grappling.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 24 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 22 of 28 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Rakić · to win. Actual Rakić · Dec R3. Result: Hit.
Calls it his lock of the card: Tybura's knees and mobility are shot, Rakic's low kicks are stylistically too much, and moving up may protect Rakic's chin by removing the weight cut.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 28 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
Chael Sonnen AnalystFighter on the fence Chael Sonnen: made no pick. Didn't call it.
Asked directly whether Tybura could pull the upset. Spent the answer on Rakic's overdue move to heavyweight and conceded the opponent is a hard fight, closing on Rakic being a player at heavyweight — a division verdict, not a stated winner for this bout.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 4.13 3.56
- 51% 55%
- 2.86 3.26
- 86% 71%
- 71% 63%
- 14-6-0
- Record
- 27-11-0
- 1-4 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 10:41
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 11:01
- Light Heavyweight (moving up)
- Weight classWeight
- Heavyweight
- Austria
- Nationality
- Poland
- American Top Team Zagreb
- Team
- S4 Warszawa
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rakić
Rakić remains the cleaner athlete and the harder single-shot puncher, with a 71% finish rate and an 86% takedown defence that should keep this standing. Tybura was knocked out by Ante Delija in just over two minutes in September 2025, so the finish is there even on Rakić's first trip to heavyweight.
Case for Tybura
Tybura is the more durable and more experienced man at 27-11, with a 1.30 takedown average that gives him a path Rakić has struggled to answer. Rakić has lost four in a row and been stopped by strikes twice in that run; if Tybura can make it a grinding, clinch-heavy fight, the older man has the better engine.
What We Were Watching For
- Rakić's leg kicks — historically his best weapon, and Tybura's base depends on his stance.
- Takedowns; Tybura lands 1.30 per fifteen minutes against Rakić's 86% takedown defence.
- Whether either man shows the chin damage of a combined six recent losses.
- Pace after round two — Rakić is 34, Tybura 40, and neither has finished a fight late recently.
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