UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez 1 Aug 2026 · Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia, RS

Robert Valentin defeats Duško Todorović by Submission

Win Robert Valentin View profile 12-6-0

Loss Thunder Duško Todorović View profile 13-7-0

Submission · guillotine choke

Round 1 · 4:14

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks12 analysts✓ Correct 33%4 picks 67%8 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The first round was a series of scrambles, and Valentin repeatedly found the dominant position. Todorovic tried to reverse position.

Todorovic left his neck exposed while attempting the reversal. Valentin locked up a high-elbow guillotine.

Todorovic tapped immediately at 4:14 of round one.

Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade main card results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Todorović

Todorović fights at home in Belgrade and finishes 92% of his wins, most recently choking out Jose Medina in round one. He is the busier striker at 4.73 strikes a minute, which matters against a man whose striking defence sits at 33%.

Case for Valentin

Valentin is the more dangerous submission threat by a wide margin — a 1.78 submission average against Todorović's 0.35 — and he choked out Julien Leblanc inside one round in April. He does not need long stretches of offence; one scramble is enough.

What We Were Watching For

Ground position — Valentin averages 1.78 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.
Todorović's output against a 33% striking defence.
Whether this reaches round two at all; both men finish over 90% of their wins.
The home crowd behind Todorović on the first UFC card in Serbia.

Records & career stats

Todorović vs Valentin

Todorović Valentin

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.52 1.15
Striking def.Striking defense 48% 33%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.20 2.37
Takedown def.Takedown defense 40% 52%
FinishingFinish rate 92% 91%

13-6-0
Record: 11-6-0; 2-3 last 5
Recent form: 2-3 last 5; Serbia
Nationality: Switzerland; 31
Age: 31; 1.85 m
Height — Valentin leads: 1.88 m; 188 cm
Reach — Valentin leads: 196 cm; Orthodox
Stance: —; 92%
Finish rateFinish %: 91%; 8
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Todorović leads: 3; 4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Valentin leads: 8; 4.52
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Todorović leads: 1.15; 4.20
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Valentin leads: 2.37; 48%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Todorović leads: 33%; 40%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Valentin leads: 52%; 07:24
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 05:55; Thunder Top Team
Team: Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(4) 33%

LTodorović

67% (8)

ValentinW

Analyst prediction scorecards

Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · Sub	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Calls Valentin the more dynamic and dangerous fighter and expects him to hurt Todorovic with a combination and then find a guillotine off a panic shot or take the back. “gets is you're getting a middleweight prospect sliming you out cold on a prospect sliming you out cold on a pay-per-view prelim. Uh I am going to go pay-per-view prelim. Uh I am going to go with Robert Valentine. I think he's with Robert Valentine. I think he's going to win this one by submission. I going to win this one by submission. I feel like overall he's just a little bit feel like overall he's just a little bit more dynamic. I feel like both of these more dynamic. I feel like both of thes” Hear it — 23:43 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
AJ Devito237 resolved calls AJ DevitoView full track record Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72 Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42 Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2 Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Started leaning Todorovic then flipped live on air, citing Valentin's speed, kicks, elbows and jiu-jitsu edge and his low opinion of Todorovic. “going to chop that lead leg down. That's what I'm thinking. The Valentine low what I'm thinking. The Valentine low kicks are going to cause problems for kicks are going to cause problems for Dooo. We're going Robert Valentine. My Dooo. We're going Robert Valentine. My confidence as I talked about it with you confidence as I talked about it with you guys here is actually growing on guys here is actually growing on Valentine. The Zinc can told me my Valentine. The Zinc can told me my internal feel” Hear it — 55:10 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗ AJ Devito’s track record → Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
KennyOkoyeMMA53 resolved calls KennyOkoyeMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17 Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 62.5% 5 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · to win	Valentin · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Frames it as a battle of two limited fighters and says Todorovic is the less bad one — he hits harder, kicks better and lets his hands go more, and Valentin loses his usual reach edge here. “who's less worse. I think I think Dusko might be less worse or less bad Dusko might be less worse or less bad than Robert Valentine. So, I'm going than Robert Valentine. So, I'm going Dusko Todorovic to get it done. The Dusko Todorovic to get it done. The Serbian gets it done in Serbia. This is Serbian gets it done in Serbia. This is my lock of the card. It's not an my lock of the card. It's not an underdog lock cuz of course it's not an underdog lock cuz of course it's not an underdog, but it's” Hear it — 13:00 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗ KennyOkoyeMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls JakeGerberMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39 Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18 Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · Dec	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Rates Valentin the more durable and dangerous striker with jiu-jitsu good enough to neutralise Todorovic's wrestling, and questions Todorovic's chin. “Medina, man. Yeah. I don't know. I I really don't Yeah. I don't know. I I really don't know with this fight, but I am going to know with this fight, but I am going to side with Robert Valentine. I like him. side with Robert Valentine. I like him. I like Robert Valentine. I like Dusco as I like Robert Valentine. I like Dusco as well, but I like Robert Valentine. I you well, but I like Robert Valentine. I you know, he was emotional after this. You know, he was emotional after this. You know, I thi” Hear it — 54:49 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Hit
Says Todorovic is repeatedly KO-able, especially to elbows in tight and on clinch breaks with his chin up, and that Valentin is the nastier finisher with an early submission edge. “but yeah, Vlasto Cepo's getting this one done. I reckon he'll find a KO blow. We done. I reckon he'll find a KO blow. We move on. move on. Darko Stosic versus Robert Valentin I'm going to go with Robert Valentin. I'm going to go with Robert Valentin. I've I've been a believer in Robert I've I've been a believer in Robert Valentin. Sometimes incorrectly, you Valentin. Sometimes incorrectly, you know, he had a fight where he lost his know, he had a fight where he lost his mom and then he has to go” Hear it — 20:30 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · KO/TKO · R2	Valentin · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Takes the underdog: says Valentin has poor striking defence, roughly 50% takedown defence and looks bad off his back, while Todorovic is the more skilled fighter whose only real flaw is his chin. “and get a TKO. But yeah, I mean, I think somebody's probably getting served. I somebody's probably getting served. I think that somebody's going to be think that somebody's going to be Valentin. Give me Dusko Todorovic to win Valentin. Give me Dusko Todorovic to win this fight by second round TKO. this fight by second round TKO. Let's go. It's going to It's going to be Let's go. It's going to It's going to be good. We got Vlasenko Chepko going good. We got Vlasenko Chepko going against Gilbert U” Hear it — 32:15 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
We Want Picks145 resolved calls We Want PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Calls Valentin the more durable man and expects his forward pressure, grinding and takedown mixing to get him on top — while saying he could not bet the fight either way. “Robert Valentine is the pick.” Hear it — 33:24 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
HopperMMA120 resolved calls HopperMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44 Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23 Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19 Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · Sub · R1	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Sees Todorovic as very beatable with never-great grappling, and expects the newly locked-in Valentin to skip the striking war, shoot a takedown and hunt a finish on the mat. “I'm going to go with Robert Valentin by some in the first round.” Hear it — 13:45 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Half The Battle87 resolved calls Half The BattleView full track record Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34 Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Says Todorovic is trending downward after knee injuries and is phoning in his camps, while Valentin is now training with elite guys in Vegas and can find an opening off a Todorovic mistake. “I'm going to pick Robert Valentine to win this fight.” Hear it — 18:30 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)View full track record Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7 Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · to win	Valentin · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Dismisses both records but gives Todorovic the wrestling edge, thinks he can nullify Valentin on the ground and win the cardio battle, with his takedown threat opening up the striking. “I expect that his wrestling could open up some striking and I just think he's up some striking and I just think he's the more well-rounded guy. the more well-rounded guy. So I'm going to go with Dusko Todorovic So I'm going to go with Dusko Todorovic here in this fight. here in this fight. And another really random fight here, And another really random fight here, Marcin Tybura Aleksandar Rakic. And both Marcin Tybura Aleksandar Rakic. And both these guys just trying to hang on for these guys ju” Hear it — 54:45 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗ MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record → Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Andrew Richardson52 resolved calls Andrew RichardsonView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.7% 30 22 Method Accuracy 70.0% 21 9 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · KO/TKO	Valentin · Sub R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
MMA Mania's UFC Belgrade X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Robert Valentin by knockout. Read source Andrew Richardson’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Bookie Beatdown26 resolved calls Bookie BeatdownView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 13 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 1 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · to win	Valentin · Sub R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Treats it as a 50/50 fight where Valentin is KO-or-bust with almost no volume, so he takes the home fighter on the grappling edge and the plus-money price. “And so, he's KO or bust. Valentin is KO or bust, and at minus 160, I'm just not or bust, and at minus 160, I'm just not loving it, so I got Dusko. loving it, so I got Dusko. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Uh moving on down, if you want question Uh moving on down, if you want question marks, you want a high volatility fight, marks, you want a high volatility fight, >> I got >> I got >> you're in the right place here, cuz >> you're in the right place here, cuz Velasco Seppo,” Hear it — 39:31 Bookie Beatdown on YouTube ↗ Bookie Beatdown’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

8 of 12 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.