UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez 1 Aug 2026 · Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia, RS

Navajo Stirling defeats Jan Błachowicz by KO/TKO

Win Navajo Stirling View profile 11-0-0

Loss Jan Błachowicz View profile 29-12-2

KO/TKO · elbows and punches

Round 1 · 2:56

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks15 analysts✓ Correct 33%5 picks 67%10 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Blachowicz’s stiff jab forced Stirling to a knee in the opening exchanges. Stirling answered with a clean right hand.

The right hand sent Blachowicz backwards, and Stirling chased him to the mat. Stirling then worked with ground-and-pound.

Heavy ground-and-pound opened Blachowicz until the referee stepped in at 2:56 of round one.

Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade main card results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Błachowicz

Błachowicz has seen every situation this division offers, and his power carries late — he still lands at 3.55 strikes a minute with 52% striking defence. Stirling took this on less than three weeks' notice, and a former champion who fights at range is the worst possible short-notice assignment.

Case for Stirling

Stirling is undefeated at 10-0 with six knockouts and lands 6.24 significant strikes a minute — nearly double Błachowicz's output. He came back from genuine adversity against Ion Cutelaba in June, and at 28 against a 43-year-old whose last win came in May 2022, the physical gap is real.

What We Were Watching For

Round one output — Stirling's 6.24 strikes per minute against a veteran who tends to start slowly.
Whether Błachowicz can drag it into the third round — six of Stirling's ten wins ended inside the distance.
Short-notice conditioning — Stirling accepted this bout on under three weeks' notice.
Whether Błachowicz looks to grapple — nine of his wins are submissions and he averages 0.36 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, against a 10-0 opponent who has never recorded a submission win, and no attempt in UFC-tracked competition.

Records & career stats

Błachowicz vs Stirling

29-11-2
Record: 10-0-0; 1-2-2 last 5
Recent form: 5-0 last 5; Poland
Nationality: New Zealand; 43
Age: 28; 1.88 m
Height — Stirling leads: 1.93 m; 198 cm
Reach — Stirling leads: 201 cm; Orthodox
Stance: —; 62%
Finish rateFinish %: 60%; 9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Błachowicz leads: 7; 9
Wins by submissionSub wins — Błachowicz leads: 0; 3.53
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Stirling leads: 6.47; 3.23
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min: —; 52%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Stirling leads: 58%; 70%
Takedown defenseTD def.: 71%; 12:49
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: —; Ankos MMA - Zapaśniczy 67, Warszawa
Team: City Kickboxing · Auckland

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(5) 33%

LBłachowicz

67% (10)

StirlingW

Analyst prediction scorecards

Chael Sonnen1 resolved call Chael SonnenView full track record Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1 Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · to win	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Framed it as Stirling's speed against Blachowicz's power and noted that in four-ounce gloves power often beats speed, but closed by saying the rankings have this matchup wrong and the oddsmakers closer to right, siding with them on Stirling. “get to 40-plus years. I don't know that the rankings room has this right. I the rankings room has this right. I THINK THE ODDS MAKERS are the one that THINK THE ODDS MAKERS are the one that are a little closer here, and I do favor are a little closer here, and I do favor with them Sterling. with them Sterling. >> Sterling jumping at every opportunity to >> Sterling jumping at every opportunity to just his second fight in 42 days. I just his second fight in 42 days. I should say his s” Hear it — 5:08 Chael Sonnen on YouTube ↗ Chael Sonnen’s track record → Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Argues Blachowicz has not actually declined — competitive against Ulberg, Guskov and Pereira — and that Stirling lacks Ulberg's one-shot power, especially on short notice. “[ __ ] believe me, gang. I picked Yanlohovich to beat Israel Adosana and Yanlohovich to beat Israel Adosana and after reviewing the tape I think I'm after reviewing the tape I think I'm going to pick Yanlohic to beat Navajo going to pick Yanlohic to beat Navajo Sterling. I think that he's going to win Sterling. I think that he's going to win a crafty decision. I could weirdly see a crafty decision. I could weirdly see Navajo Sterling just destroying him. I Navajo Sterling just destroyi” Hear it — 28:58 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
AJ Devito237 resolved calls AJ DevitoView full track record Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72 Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42 Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2 Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · to win	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Agonised over picking against Stirling, one of his favourite prospects, but decided the short-notice step up is too much too soon and backed the former champion's veteran savvy as a big underdog. “Sterling. I'm excited to see what's up, man. I think that Yamlhovich is going to man. I think that Yamlhovich is going to get this win. So, I'm picking Yamlhovich get this win. So, I'm picking Yamlhovich to beat Navajo Sterling in the co-main to beat Navajo Sterling in the co-main event. I'm going with the underdog. I'm event. I'm going with the underdog. I'm going with the former champion. We're going with the former champion. We're going Yamlhovich for the W. going Yamlhovich for the W. Let's ” Hear it — 67:50 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗ AJ Devito’s track record → Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
KennyOkoyeMMA53 resolved calls KennyOkoyeMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17 Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 62.5% 5 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · to win	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Calls Stirling the younger, more athletic fighter whose low kicks and movement will force the older Blachowicz to chase, while stressing he is not confident. “going to be a walk in the park. I just can't do it. I think Aljamain Sterling can't do it. I think Aljamain Sterling gets it done though. So, I'm going to go gets it done though. So, I'm going to go Aljamain Sterling to defeat Jan Aljamain Sterling to defeat Jan Błachowicz. Which brings me to the main Błachowicz. Which brings me to the main event of the evening with Duško event of the evening with Duško Todorović versus D Rod and it's going to Todorović versus D Rod and it's going to take foreve” Hear it — 17:00 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗ KennyOkoyeMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls Michael ChiesaView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20 Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Picked Stirling because he does not think Blachowicz, carrying injuries and age, can find his rhythm if it is disrupted, and sees no plan B for him. Explicitly said he does not expect a finish. “We will see. Aljamain Sterling's a big boy, big young athletic guy from New boy, big young athletic guy from New Zealand with a lot of promise. Zealand with a lot of promise. Taking Aljamain Sterling. All right, Taking Aljamain Sterling. All right, guys, it is time for our main event. guys, it is time for our main event. It's time to get in the weeds and talk It's time to get in the weeds and talk about Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez. about Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez. And listen, guys, I a” Hear it — 33:46 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗ Michael Chiesa’s track record → Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls JakeGerberMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39 Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18 Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
A self-described Blachowicz fan, he says Jan has slowed enough that Stirling catches him at the right time, staying a step ahead behind the jab and leg kicks. “slowed down enough for Navajo to just be a little bit ahead the entire fight. So a little bit ahead the entire fight. So I'm going to favor Navajo Sterling I'm going to favor Navajo Sterling 29-28. I think this is going to be 29-28. I think this is going to be another fight to where we're going, oh, another fight to where we're going, oh, maybe on one. maybe on one. I feel like that's where we're at, man. I feel like that's where we're at, man. I feel like that's where we're at with I feel like ” Hear it — 68:18 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Calls the odds wrong, arguing Blachowicz is still at the top of his game and too hard to catch on the chin, and that he out-jabs and out-low-kicks Stirling at range on short notice. “him coming in at about 235 240. And piecing up Tybura with ease. We move And piecing up Tybura with ease. We move on. on. Jan Blachowicz versus Navajo Sterling. Jan Blachowicz versus Navajo Sterling. Are these odds having a [ __ ] laugh? +240 Jan Blachowicz -300 +240 Jan Blachowicz -300 Navajo Sterling. The odds on the weight Navajo Sterling. The odds on the weight I think it's wrong. I think it's wrong. The odds on the weight and still have The odds on the weight and still have Jan Bl” Hear it — 25:35 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Not in love with Stirling and criticises his fight IQ against Cutelaba, but the 15-year age gap, higher volume, speed, cardio and takedown defence beat a 43-year-old, damaged Blachowicz. “probably leaning the other way potentially, but um yeah, as of now, 15 potentially, but um yeah, as of now, 15 years younger, you I think you got to go years younger, you I think you got to go Sterling here. I'll go Sterling to win Sterling here. I'll go Sterling to win this fight by decision. Blachowicz still this fight by decision. Blachowicz still at 43 is is super tough. So Sterling and at 43 is is super tough. So Sterling and Sterling by decision. Sterling by decision. All right, next we go” Hear it — 37:16 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
We Want Picks145 resolved calls We Want PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · to win	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Says he would rather fade Stirling, but takes him anyway on Blachowicz being 43 and coming off a fight he nearly lost in the second round. “us the matchup where it was very obvious to fade him. He's a 43-year-old man. to fade him. He's a 43-year-old man. I'd love to fade Navaho. The guy's 43. I'd love to fade Navaho. The guy's 43. Unfortunately, Navaho's the pick. Unfortunately, Navaho's the pick. Then we have the main event of the Then we have the main event of the evening. We have Uros Medic, who this evening. We have Uros Medic, who this card was built around, taking on Daniel card was built around, taking on Daniel Rodriguez. No” Hear it — 38:06 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
HopperMMA120 resolved calls HopperMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44 Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23 Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19 Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Says Blachowicz has had close fights with every monster at 205 and still has it at 43, while Stirling's record flatters him. Calls the step up on short notice too much too soon. “fight that Jan Blachowicz gets it done. He's in Europe, he's going to have the He's in Europe, he's going to have the home crowd an I'm going to go with Jan home crowd an I'm going to go with Jan Błachowicz by decision. Błachowicz by decision. Nawaz Sterling had a close fight with Nawaz Sterling had a close fight with two Khalil Rountree, Ivan Erslan, and two Khalil Rountree, Ivan Erslan, and Rodolfo Beltran, and only now has he Rodolfo Beltran, and only now has he started finishing fights. He o” Hear it — 21:06 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Half The Battle87 resolved calls Half The BattleView full track record Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34 Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · to win	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Has been fading Blachowicz for years and thinks Stirling's range, speed, timing and wrestling defence catch the 43-year-old at the perfect time. Explicitly refuses to call the method. “I've fallen and can't get up. So, don't be surprised if Nabaho Sterling mixes in be surprised if Nabaho Sterling mixes in a takedown or two, but ultimately, I a takedown or two, but ultimately, I don't know if it's going to be a don't know if it's going to be a knockout or a decision, but I am going knockout or a decision, but I am going to pick Nabaho Sterling to come out here to pick Nabaho Sterling to come out here and get the biggest win of his career and get the biggest win of his career an” Hear it — 10:31 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)View full track record Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7 Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Rates Blachowicz the better overall fighter but thinks he is slowing, keeps losing close calls with the judges, and that Stirling's range, leg kicks and clinch work win a competitive decision. “wrestling and clinch battle to get him tired and then win a decision in this tired and then win a decision in this fight. So, I see it being competitive fight. So, I see it being competitive once again, but I'm going to go with once again, but I'm going to go with Nalvo Sterling via decision. Nalvo Sterling via decision. And then last but not least, we got the And then last but not least, we got the main event, which is going to be a barn main event, which is going to be a barn burner with Earle” Hear it — 62:34 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗ MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record → Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Andrew Richardson52 resolved calls Andrew RichardsonView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.7% 30 22 Method Accuracy 70.0% 21 9 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
MMA Mania's UFC Belgrade X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Navajo Stirling by decision. Read source Andrew Richardson’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Bookie Beatdown26 resolved calls Bookie BeatdownView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 13 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 1 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Miss	Not called
Blachowicz is 43 and a step slow, while Stirling is 28, 6'4" and still improving; expects Stirling to be quicker to the punch and win at range, but thinks Blachowicz is too durable to finish. “out of there. Even if he's long in the tooth, everything like that, he's tooth, everything like that, he's slower. slower. Uh Sterling by decision would be the Uh Sterling by decision would be the official pick. But uh I'm just I feel official pick. But uh I'm just I feel like this fight like this fight on paper and everything that we kind of on paper and everything that we kind of said, like said, like everything points towards the 6'4 young, everything points towards the 6'4 young, improving k” Hear it — 20:05 Bookie Beatdown on YouTube ↗ Bookie Beatdown’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Jesse Holland53 resolved calls Jesse HollandView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.1% 26 27 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec	Stirling · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Mania's UFC Belgrade preview has Jesse Holland picking Jan Blachowicz by unanimous decision. Read source Jesse Holland’s track record → Track record: winner called in 26 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

10 of 15 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.