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MMAPREDICTIONGURU on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 22 of 38 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 22 16
- Method 13 5
- Round 1 3
- Underdog 2 6
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
MMAPREDICTIONGURU scored 68.2 after 5 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1), Mike Finch (#14), We Want Picks (#16). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 8.4 below, from 7.4 below at Gamrot vs. Salkilld.
68.2 now, across 5 cards. The first 3 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
22 of 38 — 58% now, from 60% at their first scored card.
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Method
72% 13 of 18 correct winners that named a method
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Round
1 of 4 correct winners that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
25% 2 of 8 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 68.2 7 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 70.7 5 hit · 5 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 77.9 5 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 329 88.3 2 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 328 78.6 3 hit · 2 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Silva vs. Delgado
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrich vs Tarin | Aldrich · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| King vs Rosas | King · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Garcia vs Rongzhu | Rongzhu · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Klose vs Gantt | Gantt · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Belgaroui vs Santos | Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R3 | Upcoming | |||
| Bahamondes vs Salikhov | Bahamondes · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Elliott vs Chairez | Elliott · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Martinez vs Ige | Martinez · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Cortes-Acosta vs Blaydes | Cortes-Acosta · to win | Upcoming | |||
| Fiorot vs Grasso | Fiorot · to win | Upcoming | |||
| McMillen vs Rahiki | Rahiki · KO/TKO · R2 | Upcoming | |||
| Moreno vs Morales | Morales · Dec | Upcoming | |||
| Silva vs Delgado | Silva · to win | Upcoming | |||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 6
- Method 5
- RoundNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asakura · KO/TKO | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Kai Asakura by knockout. “Kai Asakura is going to get the knockout win here.” | |||||
| Lima · Sub | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima by submission. “Give me Andre Lima via submission.” | |||||
| Ce · KO/TKO | Ce · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Liu Ce for a knockout, allowing either of the opening two rounds. “Liu Ce is going to get the knockout win, either round one or round two.” | |||||
| Hasan · to win | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Bilal Hasan while leaving the final result between a late stoppage and decision unresolved. “So my prediction is going to be Bilal Hasan via decision, but Bilal Hasan either TKO late or dominant decision win.” | |||||
| Woodson · Dec | Woodson · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sean Woodson by decision. “Sean Woodson by decision.” | |||||
| Jingnan · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiong Jingnan to win on the scorecards. “Jing Nan Jong picks up a decision victory.” | |||||
| Lui · Sub · R2 | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lawrence Lui by second-round rear-naked-choke submission. “Lawrence will win via submission, second-round rear choke victory.” | |||||
| Meng · Dec | Nelson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ding Meng's experience to carry him to a decision. “For my prediction, I'm going to take Ming Ding to win via decision here.” | |||||
| Nurmagomedov · Dec | Yadong · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to dominate and win a decision. “I think that Umar has him beat in all levels and is going to win via decision.” | |||||
| Sumudaerji · to win | Sumudaerji · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji while leaving the exact result between decision and knockout unresolved. “Going to go Sumudaerji, either dominant decision or KO-TKO victory.” | |||||
| Tsuruya · Sub | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya by submission, allowing either of the opening two rounds. “Rei Tsuruya for me in this fight to win via submission.” | |||||
| Long · to win | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiao Long while leaving the choice between a late finish and decision unresolved. “I'm going to pick Long Xiao to win either by a late finish or decision.” | |||||
| Xiaonan · to win | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan to win at home. “I expect her to get the victory here. Yan Xiaonan getting the win.” | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 5
- Method 3 1
- Round 1
- Underdog 4
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Salkilld · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Backs Salkilld on the cards while allowing that a knockout is also live. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Quarantillo · KO/TKO · R3 | Ferreira · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes to Quarantillo for a third-round stoppage. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 12.5%. Elkins · Dec | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes against the grain, doubting del Valle's finishing equity and durability, and backs Elkins to win a decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 12.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · to win | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller without a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls a Thainara decision, either 30-27 or 29-28. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Sutherland to win. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 40.5%. Lopes · Sub | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Lopes on a submission, while noting low confidence in the pick. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · Dec | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Asplund on the scorecards. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to win | Sousa · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans Miranda without a firm method. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Miller · Sub · R2 | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Takes Miller by second-round submission. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 3
- Method 2 3
- Round 2
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Says he would have picked Rodriguez if not for the prison layoff and the fight being in Serbia, but Medic's speed, front kicks and one-shot power tip it. Would not commit to a single round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Blachowicz the better overall fighter but thinks he is slowing, keeps losing close calls with the judges, and that Stirling's range, leg kicks and clinch work win a competitive decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · KO/TKO · R1 | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Thinks Rakic has every base covered against an aging, fading Tybura — far faster at range, with no realistic takedown threat against him — and calls a quick blitz finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Dismisses both records but gives Todorovic the wrestling edge, thinks he can nullify Valentin on the ground and win the cardio battle, with his takedown threat opening up the striking. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · KO/TKO · R1 | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Notes all 14 of Cepo's wins are finishes and says Urbina's defence and chin are not good enough to bang with him, leaving Urbina only an outside wrestling-based path. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2 | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Grants Elliott heart, cardio and the only grappling path, but expects him to press forward and run into Oliveira's left hook from a much longer, more damaging striker. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Openly calls it a 50/50 with little insight to offer, but leans Klein as the longer, younger, crisper striker who out-volumes Musayev over three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls Buzukja more technical but Grad more explosive and powerful, says Grad looks hungrier and has had longer to recover from his knockout loss, with control time the difference. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 2
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Costa inside the distance while respecting Durden's wrestling path. He argues Costa is sharper, should be able to defend enough takedowns, and can make Durden desperate before landing the damaging shot or club-and-sub sequence. “Costa inside the distance is the prediction for me in that fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · Dec | Basharat · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Rates Garza as UFC level and dangerous with pressure boxing, but sees Basharat as too experienced, more diverse and harder to trap into a brawl. He expects Basharat's volume, wrestling and gas tank to control enough of the fight for a clear decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner 3 2
- Method 2 1
- Round 1
- Underdog 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 19.5%. Strickland · KO/TKO · R4 | Strickland · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Makes Strickland the value upset pick, arguing he has a clear striking edge, can punish Chimaev if the fight gets extended, and could finish late if Chimaev gets desperate. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 19.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.61 — (50% − 19.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub · R3 | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Taira by third-round submission, expecting the grappling and back-take threat to take over if Van cannot keep the fight at boxing range. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Brady · Dec | Brady · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Brady by decision after weighing Buckley's power, expecting Brady's grappling and control to be enough over three rounds. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.25 — (50% − 37.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ochoa · Dec | Ochoa · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Ochoa to keep the fight standing, use his length and dynamic striking, and land the better shots over three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 12.5%. Santos · Dec | Susurkaev · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Santos as a major upset by decision, arguing Susurkaev had underwhelmed as a heavy favorite and Santos could steal the hype if he handled the step up. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 12.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind MMAPREDICTIONGURU's logged calls.