No way Jose 🐕🗣️@JeanSilvamma96 finds the submission in RD3 to close out #NocheUFC! [ @ParamountPlus ]
View video on X ↗Jean Silva defeats Jose Miguel Delgado by Submission
Watch the fight
Submission · rear-naked choke
Round 3 · 2:57
Silva vs Delgado — Featherweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(16) 94%
6% (1)
AI Predictions
79%
21%
Polymarket · historical
78%
22%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Delgado created early danger with forward pressure, but Silva stayed composed through the exchanges.
Silva recovered his position and turned the fight toward the ground as the main event developed.
Silva secured the rear-naked choke at 2:57 of round three for the official submission win.
- Official UFC results and recapNoche UFC main card results: Silva vs Delgado
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Silva
UFC lists Jean Silva sixth at featherweight. His current UFC record includes a unanimous-decision win over Arnold Allen in January, giving him recent five-round main-event stakes against a new opponent.
Case for Delgado
UFC bills Jose Miguel Delgado as Arizona's own for the Glendale card. His athlete profile lists a unanimous-decision win over Austin Bashi in July, adding recent momentum to his first UFC main event.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Silva can use his ranked experience across a five-round main event.
- How Delgado handles the first UFC headliner of his career in Arizona.
- The effect of Delgado's recent decision win over Austin Bashi on this booking.
- Which featherweight leaves Glendale with the stronger current case in the division.
Records & career stats
- 17-3-0
- Record
- 12-2-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
- 29
- Age
- 28
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 91%
- —
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- 4
- 09:46
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:41
- The Fighting Nerds
- Team
- The MMA Lab
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (5)
Fight-week fighter interview▶
Jean Silva previews Noche UFC main event vs Jose Delgado: "I'm going to knock him out"
Fighter interview▶
Jose Miguel Delgado interview | Noche UFC
Fight-week fighter interview▶
Jose Delgado Calls Jean Silva A 'COWARD' Ahead of UFC Noche, Emotional Life Journey to Main Event
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(16) 94%
WSilva
6% (1)
DelgadoL
Live Dogs MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva; the transcript first names decision and later names submission, so method is left unspecified.
“I am picking Silva and I’m picking by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 76.9% (10 hit, 3 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Dissection Of Violence
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva to win.
“My pick will be Silva.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 72.7% (8 hit, 3 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · Sub · Round 3
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva by Submission in round 3.
“I think Jean turns it up in the third and gets the submission. I'm going to go with Jean Silva by submission.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
TheWeasle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva by KO in round 1.
“I'm going to go with Silva by a first-round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
FightIQ's public record lists Jean Silva as its pick over Jose Miguel Delgado.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva by TKO; the caption renders Jean as John and omits Delgado's middle name, while the canonical matchup is clear.
“John Silva should be able to muster up a TKO win within the second or third round.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · Round 2
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva to win.
“Silva is going to finish Jose Miguel Delgado in round two.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva by knockout in round 2.
“I'll take Jean Silva to win this fight by second round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva to win.
“Jean Silva is going to be the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva by knockout in round 1.
“I'm going to say Jean Silva highlight reel, devastating KO, late first round.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
HopperMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva by TKO.
“Gets the ground and pound TKO finish. So I'm going to go with Jean Silva to win.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 60:18
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva to win.
“Jean Silva in the main event is going to be the prediction for me.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Kunath
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva by KO.
“The pick for this fight will be Jean Silva to win by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Andrew Richardson
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Jean Silva by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Chris Schweppe explicitly picks Silva by second-round knockout.
“Silva by 2nd round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Half The Battle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jean Silva
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
Picks Jean Silva to win.
“I'll pick Jean Silva as a pure pick.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jose Miguel Delgado
Fight result: Jean Silva · Submission
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Jose Miguel Delgado.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Live Dogs MMA Hit; Dissection Of Violence Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Kunath Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
16 of 17 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Silva · Submission · R3
Closest probability ChatGPT and Claude put 80% on Silva.
80%
Silva
20%
Delgado
PickSilva · KO/TKO · R3ActualSilva · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundHitHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
80%
Silva
20%
Delgado
PickSilva · KO/TKO · R2ActualSilva · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
76%
Silva
24%
Delgado
PickSilva · KO/TKO · R2ActualSilva · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite callAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Silva
Most likely: Silva by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100
Win chance: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%.
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Silva
Most likely: Silva by KO/TKO, about 45 in 100
Win chance: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%.
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Silva
Most likely: Silva by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100
Win chance: Silva 76%, Delgado 24%.
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Silva.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Silva: 80% (about 80 in 100 fights). Delgado: 20%.
Claude
Silva: 80% (about 80 in 100 fights). Delgado: 20%.
Gemini
Silva: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Delgado: 24%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Silva by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Claude
Silva by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).
Gemini
Silva by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (24%); 3. Delgado by decision (10%)
Claude
1. Silva by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Silva by decision (25%); 3. Silva by submission (10%)
Gemini
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (20%); 3. Delgado by KO/TKO (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Silva's 80% win chance.
Claude
8 of 10, based on Silva's 80% win chance.
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Silva's 76% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.
How does Silva win?
ChatGPT
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
Claude
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Silva wins 76%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
How does Delgado win?
ChatGPT
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 10%.
Claude
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 3%.
Gemini
Delgado wins 24%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 8%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Delgado's most likely upset: Delgado by decision (10%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Silva.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (48%).
Claude
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (45%).
Gemini
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (48%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 56%, submission 10%, decision 34%.
Claude
KO/TKO 55%, submission 17%, decision 28%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 62%, submission 10%, decision 28%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Silva: 56%, against 10% for Delgado.
Claude
Silva: 55%, against 17% for Delgado.
Gemini
Silva: 56%, against 16% for Delgado.
Can Silva get the finish? Can Delgado?
ChatGPT
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Claude
Silva: 55% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%). Delgado: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).
Gemini
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Silva is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
Claude
Silva is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Delgado is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Silva is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 80% vs 20%.
Claude
Lopsided: 80% vs 20%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Delgado wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Delgado wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Delgado wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
34%.
Claude
28%.
Gemini
28%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Silva 71%, Delgado 29%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Silva 89%, Delgado 11%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Silva 71%, Delgado 29%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Delgado by decision, 10% here against 6% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Delgado by decision, 3% here against 9% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (80%).
Claude
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (80%).
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (76%).
Which model is most confident on Silva, and which on Delgado?
All models
On Silva: ChatGPT and Claude, tied (80%). On Delgado: Gemini (24%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Delgado by decision: from 3% (Claude) to 10% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Claude
Yes.
Gemini
No.
ChatGPT
Pick
Silva
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Most likely: Silva by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 3.
Win chance: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%.
Most likely outcomes
- Silva by KO/TKO48%
- Silva by decision24%
- Delgado by decision10%
- KO/TKO: Silva 48%, Delgado 8%.
- Submission: Silva 8%, Delgado 2%.
- Decision: Silva 24%, Delgado 10%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Silva: 80% (about 80 in 100 fights). Delgado: 20%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Silva: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Delgado: 24%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Silva by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Silva by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (24%); 3. Delgado by decision (10%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Silva by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Silva by decision (25%); 3. Silva by submission (10%)
Gemini
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (20%); 3. Delgado by KO/TKO (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Silva's 80% win chance.
Other models' answers
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Silva's 76% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.
How does Silva win?
ChatGPT
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Silva wins 76%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
How does Delgado win?
ChatGPT
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 10%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 3%.
Gemini
Delgado wins 24%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 8%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Delgado's most likely upset: Delgado by decision (10%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Silva.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (48%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (45%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 56%, submission 10%, decision 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 55%, submission 17%, decision 28%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 62%, submission 10%, decision 28%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Silva: 56%, against 10% for Delgado.
Other models' answers
Claude
Silva: 55%, against 17% for Delgado.
Gemini
Silva: 56%, against 16% for Delgado.
Can Silva get the finish? Can Delgado?
ChatGPT
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Silva: 55% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%). Delgado: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).
Gemini
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Silva is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Silva is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Delgado is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Silva is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 80% vs 20%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Delgado wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Delgado wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
28%.
Gemini
28%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Silva 71%, Delgado 29%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Silva 89%, Delgado 11%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Delgado by decision, 10% here against 6% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Delgado by decision, 3% here against 9% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (80%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (76%).
Which model is most confident on Silva, and which on Delgado?
ChatGPT
On Silva: ChatGPT and Claude, tied (80%). On Delgado: Gemini (24%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Delgado by decision: from 3% (Claude) to 10% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes.
gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Silva
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Most likely: Silva by KO/TKO, about 45 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Silva 80%, Delgado 20%.
Most likely outcomes
- Silva by KO/TKO45%
- Silva by decision25%
- Silva by submission, tied for number 310%
- KO/TKO: Silva 45%, Delgado 10%.
- Submission: Silva 10%, Delgado 7%.
- Decision: Silva 25%, Delgado 3%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Silva: 80% (about 80 in 100 fights). Delgado: 20%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Silva: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Delgado: 24%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Silva by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Gemini
Silva by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Silva by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Silva by decision (25%); 3. Silva by submission (10%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (24%); 3. Delgado by decision (10%)
Gemini
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (20%); 3. Delgado by KO/TKO (14%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
8 of 10, based on Silva's 80% win chance.
Other models' answers
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Silva's 76% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
How does Silva win?
Claude
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Silva wins 76%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
How does Delgado win?
Claude
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 3%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 10%.
Gemini
Delgado wins 24%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 8%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Silva.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (45%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (48%).
Gemini
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (48%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 55%, submission 17%, decision 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 56%, submission 10%, decision 34%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 62%, submission 10%, decision 28%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Silva: 55%, against 17% for Delgado.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva: 56%, against 10% for Delgado.
Gemini
Silva: 56%, against 16% for Delgado.
Can Silva get the finish? Can Delgado?
Claude
Silva: 55% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%). Delgado: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Gemini
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Silva is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Delgado is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Silva is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Lopsided: 80% vs 20%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Delgado wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Delgado wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
34%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Silva 89%, Delgado 11%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Silva 71%, Delgado 29%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Silva 71%, Delgado 29%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Delgado by decision, 3% here against 9% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Delgado by decision, 10% here against 6% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (80%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (76%).
Which model is most confident on Silva, and which on Delgado?
Claude
On Silva: ChatGPT and Claude, tied (80%). On Delgado: Gemini (24%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Delgado by decision: from 3% (Claude) to 10% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
No.
Gemini
No.
claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Silva
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Most likely: Silva by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Silva 76%, Delgado 24%.
Most likely outcomes
- Silva by KO/TKO48%
- Silva by decision20%
- Delgado by KO/TKO14%
- KO/TKO: Silva 48%, Delgado 14%.
- Submission: Silva 8%, Delgado 2%.
- Decision: Silva 20%, Delgado 8%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Silva: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Delgado: 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva: 80% (about 80 in 100 fights). Delgado: 20%.
Claude
Silva: 80% (about 80 in 100 fights). Delgado: 20%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Silva by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Silva by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (20%); 3. Delgado by KO/TKO (14%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Silva by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Silva by decision (24%); 3. Delgado by decision (10%)
Claude
1. Silva by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Silva by decision (25%); 3. Silva by submission (10%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
8 of 10, based on Silva's 76% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Silva's 80% win chance.
Claude
8 of 10, based on Silva's 80% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
How does Silva win?
Gemini
Silva wins 76%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
Claude
Silva wins 80%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
How does Delgado win?
Gemini
Delgado wins 24%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 8%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 10%.
Claude
Delgado wins 20%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 3%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Silva.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (48%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Silva by submission in round 3. Silva by submission was the model's joint number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Silva by KO/TKO (45%).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 62%, submission 10%, decision 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 56%, submission 10%, decision 34%.
Claude
KO/TKO 55%, submission 17%, decision 28%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Silva: 56%, against 16% for Delgado.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva: 56%, against 10% for Delgado.
Claude
Silva: 55%, against 17% for Delgado.
Can Silva get the finish? Can Delgado?
Gemini
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva: 56% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 8%). Delgado: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Claude
Silva: 55% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%). Delgado: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Silva is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Silva is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Delgado is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 8%.
Claude
Silva is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Delgado is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 80% vs 20%.
Claude
Lopsided: 80% vs 20%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Delgado wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Delgado wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Delgado wins 20% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
34%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Silva 71%, Delgado 29%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Silva 89%, Delgado 11%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (76%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (80%).
Claude
Of 17 analyst picks, 16 back Silva and 1 backs Delgado. This model picks Silva (80%).
Which model is most confident on Silva, and which on Delgado?
Gemini
On Silva: ChatGPT and Claude, tied (80%). On Delgado: Gemini (24%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Delgado by decision: from 3% (Claude) to 10% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
No.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes.
Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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