Cortes-Acosta vs Blaydes — Heavyweight · Silva vs. Delgado

Scheduled · 12 Sep 2026 Silva vs. Delgado · Heavyweight · Main Card · 3 rounds · Glendale, Arizona
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, head-and-shoulders portrait
Salsa Boy
Waldo
Cortes-Acosta
Record Record: 17-3-0
Wins
17
Losses
3
Draws
0
9KO/TKO
1Sub
7Dec

Red corner

17-3-0
Record
19-6-0
34
Age
35
1.93 m
Height
1.93 m
198 cm
Reach — Blaydes leads
203 cm
5.18
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / min — Cortes-Acosta leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.18
59%
Finish rateFinish % — Blaydes leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
68%
Curtis Blaydes, head-and-shoulders portrait
Razor
Curtis
Blaydes
Record Record: 19-6-0
Wins
19
Losses
6
Draws
0
13KO/TKO
0Sub
6Dec

Blue corner

Expectations

64%
Market — red corner favoredMarket expectations6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice.
36%
7
Analyst picksAnalysts — red corner favoredAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. The ALL marker appears only when three or more picks agree.
1
63%
AI prediction — red corner favoredAI predictionAverage of eligible published AI model predictions. This is an editorial signal, not betting advice.
37%

6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice. Counts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. Average of eligible published AI model predictions.

Full Tale of the Tape · +10 more stats · radar
17-3-0
Record
19-6-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Blaydes leads
13
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Cortes-Acosta leads
0
3.72
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Blaydes leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.76
54%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
74%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Cortes-Acosta leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
35%
11:16
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
Dominican Republic
Nationality
United States

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

What to expect

Case for Cortes-Acosta

UFC's current event card lists Waldo Cortes Acosta fifth at heavyweight. Its fight preview identifies him as a Contender Series graduate coming off a decision loss to Alexander Volkov.

Case for Blaydes

Curtis Blaydes is listed sixth at heavyweight on the current event card. UFC describes him as a longtime divisional presence who beat Josh Hokit earlier this year, bringing a recent win into the matchup.

What to Watch

  • How Cortes Acosta responds after the Volkov decision loss.
  • Whether Blaydes can build from his recent win over Josh Hokit.
  • The consequences of a meeting between the current Nos. 5 and 6 at heavyweight.
  • Which contender creates the stronger case for the next layer of heavyweight matchmaking.

AI Predictions

Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.

The Read

Latest snapshot · T-7

Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.

ChatGPT
66% 34%
Claude
60% 40%
Gemini
62% 38%

3 of 3 models favour Cortes-Acosta. The combined forecast puts 51% on Decision as the likeliest finish.

Where the models differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing. The full model calls are below.

  • ChatGPTCortes-Acosta · Decision · medium confidence
  • ClaudeCortes-Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 2 · medium confidence
  • GeminiCortes-Acosta · Decision · medium confidence

Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Cortes-Acosta.

Method outlook KO/TKO 46% · Submission 3% · Decision 51%.

Model spread 60%–66% Cortes-Acosta · 34%–40% Blaydes.

Vs the market Market 64% Cortes-Acosta · 36% Blaydes · as of 2026-09-11. AI mean 63% Cortes-Acosta · 37% Blaydes.

Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

ChatGPT

gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-09-05

Overall win probability

66% Cortes-Acosta
34% Blaydes

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

31%
10%
41% · KO/TKO: Cortes-Acosta 31%, Blaydes 10%
1%
1%
2% · Submission: Cortes-Acosta 1%, Blaydes 1%
34%
23%
57% · Decision: Cortes-Acosta 34%, Blaydes 23%

Pick

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Decisionmedium · ●●○

Forecast

Cortes-Acosta is the pick at 66%, with Decision as the forecast result.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

Claude

claude-sonnet-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-09-05

Overall win probability

60% Cortes-Acosta
40% Blaydes

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

38%
14%
52% · KO/TKO: Cortes-Acosta 38%, Blaydes 14%
3%
1%
4% · Submission: Cortes-Acosta 3%, Blaydes 1%
19%
25%
44% · Decision: Cortes-Acosta 19%, Blaydes 25%

Pick

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

KO/TKO · Round 2medium · ●●○

Forecast

Cortes-Acosta is the pick at 60%, with KO/TKO · Round 2 as the forecast result.

11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent

Gemini

provider-default-unreported · via AGY CLI · 2026-09-05

Overall win probability

62% Cortes-Acosta
38% Blaydes

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

28%
17%
45% · KO/TKO: Cortes-Acosta 28%, Blaydes 17%
1%
2%
3% · Submission: Cortes-Acosta 1%, Blaydes 2%
33%
19%
52% · Decision: Cortes-Acosta 33%, Blaydes 19%

Pick

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Decisionmedium · ●●○

Forecast

Cortes-Acosta is the pick at 62%, with Decision as the forecast result.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

Analyst picks: The MMA Guru picks Cortes-Acosta; TheWeasle picks Cortes-Acosta; We Want Picks picks Cortes-Acosta; Half The Battle picks Cortes-Acosta; Bedtime MMA picks Blaydes; MMA JOEY picks Cortes-Acosta; DFS By The Numbers picks Cortes-Acosta; MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Cortes-Acosta.

5 of 8 see a finish — 5 by KO/TKO, 1 by decision.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Full analyst picks ↓
The MMA Guru Analyst called 66 of 99 The MMA Guru: picks Cortes-Acosta — KO/TKO

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.

“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.”
Hear it — 27:29 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.

TheWeasle Analyst called 45 of 61 TheWeasle: picks Cortes-Acosta — KO/TKO · R1

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta knocking out Curtis Blaydes in the first round.”
Hear it — 25:31 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗ TheWeasle’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.

We Want Picks Betting desk called 79 of 121 We Want Picks: picks Cortes-Acosta — to win

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.

“I'm picking Waldo.”
Hear it — 109:32 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks.

Half The Battle Analyst called 40 of 60 Half The Battle: picks Cortes-Acosta — KO/TKO

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO.

“Waldo Cortes Acosta is going to come out here and knock out Curtis Blaydes.”
Hear it — 20:15 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.

MMA JOEY Analyst called 18 of 27 MMA JOEY: picks Cortes-Acosta — KO/TKO · R2

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.

“I'm going Waldo Cortes Acosta to get it done. Second-round KO.”
Hear it — 23:20 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗ MMA JOEY’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 18 of 27 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.

DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 77 of 112 DFS By The Numbers: picks Cortes-Acosta — KO/TKO · R2

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.

“Give me Waldo Cortes Acosta by second-round knockout.”
Hear it — 23:33 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks, 30 a perfect call.

MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 22 of 38 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: picks Cortes-Acosta — to win

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.

“I'm going to go with Waldo.”
Hear it — 42:31 MMAPREDICTIONGURU on YouTube ↗ MMAPREDICTIONGURU’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks, 12 a perfect call.

Bedtime MMA Analyst called 83 of 126 Bedtime MMA: picks Blaydes — Decision

Picks Curtis Blaydes by Decision.

“I trust him to win this by decision. I'm going with Curtis Blaydes.”
Hear it — 24:52 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks, 37 a perfect call.

Odds

What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.

Sportsbook consensus · Who wins

64% Waldo Cortes-Acosta Money moved toward Waldo Cortes-Acosta since the market opened: ▲ 1 since open
36% Curtis Blaydes

Favoured: Cortes-Acosta

All 6 books consensus 64%

  • BetOnline.ag63%−1
  • BetRivers64%0
  • BetUS63%−1
  • Bovada64%0
  • DraftKings66%+2
  • FanDuel64%0

6 books within 3 points

Vig-stripped win probability for Cortes-Acosta at each book — the chance implied once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. The consensus is the median across books. The small bar under each book is its gap from the consensus, on a fixed ±5-point scale; a hatched bar is off that scale.

6 sportsbooks as of 11 Sep 13:11 UTC · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab)

Fighters

Waldo Cortes-Acosta
17-3-0 · Heavyweight · Salsa Boy
View profile →
Curtis Blaydes
19-6-0 · Heavyweight · Razor
View profile →

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