Back in the win column ✅@RazorBlaydes265 gets the UD win to become tied for 4th for most heavyweight wins in UFC history! [ #NocheUFC is LIVE NOW on @ParamountPlus ]
View video on X ↗Curtis Blaydes defeats Waldo Cortes Acosta by unanimous decision
Unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Cortes Acosta vs Blaydes — Heavyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(10) 83%
17% (2)
AI Predictions
63%
37%
Polymarket · historical
62%
38%
Fight details
The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.
Records & career stats
- 5.03 3.99
- 55% 55%
- 3.44 2.70
- 70% 35%
- 59% 68%
- 17-3-0
- Record
- 19-6-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Dominican Republic
- Nationality
- United States
- 34
- Age
- 35
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 11:00
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:29
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(10) 83%
LCortes Acosta
17% (2)
BlaydesW
TheWeasle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO in round 1.
“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta knocking out Curtis Blaydes in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Waldo Cortes Acosta as its pick over Curtis Blaydes.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout; the captions contain minor surname variants.
“land a knockout to get the win over Curtis Blaydes.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.
“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.
“Give me Waldo Cortes Acosta by second-round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.
“I'm going to Waldo Cortez Acosta.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.
“I'm going Waldo Cortes Acosta to get it done. Second-round KO.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 42:31
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.
“I'm going to go with Waldo.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Andrew Richardson
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · Dec
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Half The Battle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO.
“Waldo Cortes Acosta is going to come out here and knock out Curtis Blaydes.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Curtis Blaydes · Dec
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
Picks Curtis Blaydes by Decision.
“I trust him to win this by decision. I'm going with Curtis Blaydes.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Curtis Blaydes
Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Curtis Blaydes.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; FightIQ Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.
Only 2 of 12 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Blaydes · Decision · R3
Closest probability Claude put 40% on Blaydes.
66%
Cortes Acosta
34%
Blaydes
PickCortes Acosta · DecisionActualBlaydes · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
60%
Cortes Acosta
40%
Blaydes
PickCortes Acosta · KO/TKO · R2ActualBlaydes · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
62%
Cortes Acosta
38%
Blaydes
PickCortes Acosta · DecisionActualBlaydes · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite callAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Cortes Acosta
Most likely: Cortes Acosta by decision, about 34 in 100
Win chance: Cortes Acosta 66%, Blaydes 34%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Cortes Acosta
Most likely: Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO, about 38 in 100
Win chance: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Cortes Acosta
Most likely: Cortes Acosta by decision, about 33 in 100
Win chance: Cortes Acosta 62%, Blaydes 38%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Cortes Acosta.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 34%.
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 40%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 38%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Claude
Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (34%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (31%); 3. Blaydes by decision (23%)
Claude
1. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Blaydes by decision (25%); 3. Cortes Acosta by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (33%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Blaydes by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 66% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 60% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 62% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 56%. Decision: 44%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
How does Cortes Acosta win?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta wins 66%: KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%, decision 34%.
Claude
Cortes Acosta wins 60%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta wins 62%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%, decision 33%.
How does Blaydes win?
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 23%.
Claude
Blaydes wins 40%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 19%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (23%).
Claude
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (25%).
Gemini
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (19%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Cortes Acosta.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (34%).
Claude
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%).
Gemini
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (33%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
23% (about 23 in 100).
Claude
25% (about 25 in 100).
Gemini
19% (about 19 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 41%, submission 2%, decision 57%.
Claude
KO/TKO 52%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 45%, submission 3%, decision 52%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32%, against 11% for Blaydes.
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41%, against 15% for Blaydes.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29%, against 19% for Blaydes.
Can Cortes Acosta get the finish? Can Blaydes?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32% (KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%). Blaydes: 15% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%).
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 31% and submitted in 1%.
Claude
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Blaydes is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 1%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: 34%. Blaydes by decision: 23%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: 33%. Blaydes by decision: 19%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Blaydes wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
57%.
Claude
44%.
Gemini
52%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 43%, Blaydes 57%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 64%, Blaydes 37%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Cortes Acosta by decision, 34% here against 26% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Cortes Acosta by decision, 19% here against 34% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (66%).
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (60%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (62%).
Which model is most confident on Cortes Acosta, and which on Blaydes?
All models
On Cortes Acosta: ChatGPT (66%). On Blaydes: Claude (40%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Cortes Acosta by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 34% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Andrew Richardson (Cortes Acosta by decision): the same winner and method as this model; this model favours Cortes Acosta, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Andrew Richardson (Cortes Acosta by decision): the same winner and method as this model; this model favours Cortes Acosta, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
All models
Claude, which gave the actual result 25%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Cortes Acosta
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Cortes Acosta by decision, about 34 in 100
Win chance: Cortes Acosta 66%, Blaydes 34%.
Most likely outcomes
- Cortes Acosta by decision34%
- Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO31%
- Blaydes by decision23%
- KO/TKO: Cortes Acosta 31%, Blaydes 10%.
- Submission: Cortes Acosta 1%, Blaydes 1%.
- Decision: Cortes Acosta 34%, Blaydes 23%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 40%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 38%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (34%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (31%); 3. Blaydes by decision (23%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Blaydes by decision (25%); 3. Cortes Acosta by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (33%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Blaydes by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 66% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 60% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 62% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 56%. Decision: 44%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
How does Cortes Acosta win?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta wins 66%: KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%, decision 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Cortes Acosta wins 60%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta wins 62%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%, decision 33%.
How does Blaydes win?
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 23%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Blaydes wins 40%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 19%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (23%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (25%).
Gemini
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (19%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Cortes Acosta.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (34%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%).
Gemini
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (33%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
23% (about 23 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
25% (about 25 in 100).
Gemini
19% (about 19 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 41%, submission 2%, decision 57%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 52%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 45%, submission 3%, decision 52%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32%, against 11% for Blaydes.
Other models' answers
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41%, against 15% for Blaydes.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29%, against 19% for Blaydes.
Can Cortes Acosta get the finish? Can Blaydes?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32% (KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%). Blaydes: 15% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%).
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 31% and submitted in 1%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Blaydes is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 1%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: 34%. Blaydes by decision: 23%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: 33%. Blaydes by decision: 19%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Blaydes wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
57%.
Other models' answers
Claude
44%.
Gemini
52%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 43%, Blaydes 57%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 64%, Blaydes 37%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Cortes Acosta by decision, 34% here against 26% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Cortes Acosta by decision, 19% here against 34% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (66%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (60%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (62%).
Which model is most confident on Cortes Acosta, and which on Blaydes?
ChatGPT
On Cortes Acosta: ChatGPT (66%). On Blaydes: Claude (40%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 34% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Andrew Richardson (Cortes Acosta by decision): the same winner and method as this model; this model favours Cortes Acosta, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
ChatGPT
Claude, which gave the actual result 25%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Cortes Acosta
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO, about 38 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%.
Most likely outcomes
- Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO38%
- Blaydes by decision25%
- Cortes Acosta by decision19%
- KO/TKO: Cortes Acosta 38%, Blaydes 14%.
- Submission: Cortes Acosta 3%, Blaydes 1%.
- Decision: Cortes Acosta 19%, Blaydes 25%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 34%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 38%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Blaydes by decision (25%); 3. Cortes Acosta by decision (19%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (34%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (31%); 3. Blaydes by decision (23%)
Gemini
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (33%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Blaydes by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 60% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 66% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 62% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 56%. Decision: 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
How does Cortes Acosta win?
Claude
Cortes Acosta wins 60%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta wins 66%: KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%, decision 34%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta wins 62%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%, decision 33%.
How does Blaydes win?
Claude
Blaydes wins 40%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%, decision 25%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 23%.
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 19%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (25%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (23%).
Gemini
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (19%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Cortes Acosta.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (34%).
Gemini
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (33%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Claude
25% (about 25 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
23% (about 23 in 100).
Gemini
19% (about 19 in 100).
More questions (18)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 52%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 41%, submission 2%, decision 57%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 45%, submission 3%, decision 52%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41%, against 15% for Blaydes.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32%, against 11% for Blaydes.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29%, against 19% for Blaydes.
Can Cortes Acosta get the finish? Can Blaydes?
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%). Blaydes: 15% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32% (KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 3%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 31% and submitted in 1%.
Gemini
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Blaydes is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 1%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Blaydes wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
57%.
Gemini
52%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 43%, Blaydes 57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 64%, Blaydes 37%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Cortes Acosta by decision, 19% here against 34% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Cortes Acosta by decision, 34% here against 26% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (60%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (66%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (62%).
Which model is most confident on Cortes Acosta, and which on Blaydes?
Claude
On Cortes Acosta: ChatGPT (66%). On Blaydes: Claude (40%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Cortes Acosta by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 34% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Claude
Claude, which gave the actual result 25%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Cortes Acosta
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Cortes Acosta by decision, about 33 in 100
Win chance: Cortes Acosta 62%, Blaydes 38%.
Most likely outcomes
- Cortes Acosta by decision33%
- Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO28%
- Blaydes by decision19%
- KO/TKO: Cortes Acosta 28%, Blaydes 17%.
- Submission: Cortes Acosta 1%, Blaydes 2%.
- Decision: Cortes Acosta 33%, Blaydes 19%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 34%.
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Blaydes: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Claude
Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO: 38% (about 38 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (33%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Blaydes by decision (19%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Cortes Acosta by decision (34%); 2. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (31%); 3. Blaydes by decision (23%)
Claude
1. Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%); 2. Blaydes by decision (25%); 3. Cortes Acosta by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 62% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 66% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Cortes Acosta's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 48%. Decision: 52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 56%. Decision: 44%.
How does Cortes Acosta win?
Gemini
Cortes Acosta wins 62%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%, decision 33%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta wins 66%: KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%, decision 34%.
Claude
Cortes Acosta wins 60%: KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 19%.
How does Blaydes win?
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 23%.
Claude
Blaydes wins 40%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%, decision 25%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (19%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (23%).
Claude
Blaydes's most likely upset: Blaydes by decision (25%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Cortes Acosta.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (33%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by decision (34%).
Claude
Result: Blaydes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO (38%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Gemini
19% (about 19 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
23% (about 23 in 100).
Claude
25% (about 25 in 100).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 45%, submission 3%, decision 52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 41%, submission 2%, decision 57%.
Claude
KO/TKO 52%, submission 4%, decision 44%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29%, against 19% for Blaydes.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32%, against 11% for Blaydes.
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41%, against 15% for Blaydes.
Can Cortes Acosta get the finish? Can Blaydes?
Gemini
Cortes Acosta: 29% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta: 32% (KO/TKO 31%, submission 1%). Blaydes: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).
Claude
Cortes Acosta: 41% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%). Blaydes: 15% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Blaydes is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 1%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 31% and submitted in 1%.
Claude
Cortes Acosta is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 1%. Blaydes is knocked out in 38% and submitted in 3%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: 33%. Blaydes by decision: 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Cortes Acosta by decision: 34%. Blaydes by decision: 23%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Blaydes wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Blaydes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Blaydes wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
57%.
Claude
44%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 64%, Blaydes 37%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Cortes Acosta 43%, Blaydes 57%.
Compared with others 4 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (62%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (66%).
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 10 back Cortes Acosta and 2 back Blaydes. This model picks Cortes Acosta (60%).
Which model is most confident on Cortes Acosta, and which on Blaydes?
Gemini
On Cortes Acosta: ChatGPT (66%). On Blaydes: Claude (40%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Cortes Acosta by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 34% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Andrew Richardson (Cortes Acosta by decision): the same winner and method as this model; this model favours Cortes Acosta, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Gemini
Claude, which gave the actual result 25%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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