Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Regina Tarin defeats JJ Aldrich by unanimous decision

Loss JJ Aldrich 15-8-0
Win Regina Tarin 9-0-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Aldrich vs Tarin — Women's Flyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The official UFC result confirms the winner and result.

The bout was recorded across the full official result entry.

Narrative detail remains limited to the verified result and method.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Aldrich

Aldrich brings established UFC experience and should benefit if she can make the bout technically layered. Her route is to use clean entries and disciplined positioning to prevent Tarin from building confidence in open exchanges.

Case for Tarin

Tarin's opportunity is to make the fight unpredictable early and test Aldrich's reactions with initiative rather than waiting for a veteran-led rhythm. If she can keep the exchanges fresh, she can create the upset conditions this matchup offers.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Aldrich can impose veteran pace and positioning.
  • How Tarin handles the first sustained exchange.
  • Which fighter wins the transitions between striking and grappling.
  • Whether the bout becomes more competitive as Tarin settles in.
Records & career stats
Aldrich vs Tarin
Aldrich Tarin
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.93 6.37
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 62% 58%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.39 5.60
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 68% 83%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 20% 67%
15-7-0
Record
8-0-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Mexico
33
Age
21
5′5″165 cm
Height — Tarin leads
5′7″170 cm
67″171 cm
Reach — Aldrich leads
66″168 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
20%
Finish rateFinish % — Tarin leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
67%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Tarin leads
4
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Tarin leads
2
3.93
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Tarin leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.37
4.39
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Aldrich leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.60
62%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Aldrich leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
68%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Tarin leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
83%
13:55
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Flyweight (moving up)
Weight classWeight
Women's Flyweight
Tiger Beetle Martial Arts
Team
UFC Performance Institute Mexico City

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 7:47 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: JJ Aldrich · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks JJ Aldrich by split decision.

“I'm going to pick JJ Aldrich to win this fight via split decision.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 38:40 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: JJ Aldrich · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks JJ Aldrich by Decision.

“Give me JJ Aldrich to win this controversial split decision.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: JJ Aldrich

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: JJ Aldrich.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 0:37 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“Honestly, I'm gonna go with Tarin to win this one by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 5:19 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin winning by a decision.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists Regina Tarin as its pick over JJ Aldrich.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 0:50 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision; the caption renders the surname as Terran.

“Give me Terran by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 0:59 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision; the quick-picks captions render her as Irena Tadyan.

“which will lead to Tadyan winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 3:47 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin getting this one done by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 4:16 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'll take her to win this fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 33:30 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin to win.

“I'm going to pick Regina here.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 3:08 Livid Larry MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin; the speaker gives decision as most likely but retains TKO as an alternative.

“picking her to win this one most likely by decision win or could even see a TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 3:08 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'm going to pick Tarin to get it done. I'll say 29-28 decision win.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 1:38 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Regina Tarin · Dec

Fight result: Regina Tarin · Decision

Picks Regina Tarin by decision.

“I'm going to go Regina Tarin by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.

11 of 14 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Tarin · Decision · R3

Closest probability Gemini put 68% on Tarin.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
52% Aldrich
48% Tarin
PickAldrich · DecisionActualTarin · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
35% Aldrich
65% Tarin
PickTarin · KO/TKO · R2ActualTarin · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
32% Aldrich
68% Tarin
PickTarin · DecisionActualTarin · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Aldrich

    Most likely: Aldrich by decision, about 43 in 100

    Win chance: Aldrich 52%, Tarin 48%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Tarin

    Most likely: Tarin by KO/TKO, about 30 in 100

    Win chance: Aldrich 35%, Tarin 65%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Tarin

    Most likely: Tarin by decision, about 53 in 100

    Win chance: Aldrich 32%, Tarin 68%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

1 of 3 models pick Aldrich; 2 of 3 models pick Tarin.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Tarin: 48%.

  • Claude

    Tarin: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 35%.

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 32%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

  • Claude

    Tarin by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Tarin by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Aldrich by decision (43%); 2. Tarin by decision (32%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

  • Claude

    1. Tarin by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Tarin by decision (25%); 3. Aldrich by decision (24%)

  • Gemini

    1. Tarin by decision (53%); 2. Aldrich by decision (27%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Aldrich's 52% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 65% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 68% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 25%. Decision: 75%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 20%. Decision: 80%.

How does Aldrich win?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 24%.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 27%.

How does Tarin win?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Tarin wins 65%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 25%.

  • Gemini

    Tarin wins 68%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%, decision 53%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin's most likely upset: Tarin by decision (32%).

  • Claude

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (24%).

  • Gemini

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (27%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Aldrich, Claude: Tarin, Gemini: Tarin).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aldrich by decision (43%).

  • Claude

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tarin by KO/TKO (30%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    25% (about 25 in 100).

  • Gemini

    53% (about 53 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 7%, decision 75%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 13%, decision 49%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 14%, submission 6%, decision 80%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin: 16%, against 9% for Aldrich.

  • Claude

    Tarin: 40%, against 11% for Aldrich.

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 15%, against 5% for Aldrich.

Can Aldrich get the finish? Can Tarin?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Tarin: 16% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%).

  • Claude

    Aldrich: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Tarin: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).

  • Gemini

    Aldrich: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%). Tarin: 15% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 5%. Tarin is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Aldrich is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Tarin is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 4%. Tarin is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 48%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich by decision: 43%. Tarin by decision: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich by decision: 27%. Tarin by decision: 53%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    75%.

  • Claude

    49%.

  • Gemini

    80%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 57%, Tarin 43%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 49%, Tarin 51%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 34%, Tarin 66%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Aldrich by decision, 43% here against 26% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Tarin by decision, 53% here against 29% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Aldrich (52%).

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (65%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (68%).

Which model is most confident on Aldrich, and which on Tarin?

  • All models

    On Aldrich: ChatGPT (52%). On Tarin: Gemini (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Tarin by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 53% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Half The Battle (Aldrich by decision) and MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) (Aldrich by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Aldrich, most likely by decision.

  • Gemini

    The MMA Guru (Tarin by decision), TheWeasle (Tarin by decision), Bedtime MMA (Tarin by decision), MMA JOEY (Tarin by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Tarin by decision), HopperMMA (Tarin by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Tarin by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Tarin by decision) and FightIQ (Tarin by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Tarin, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 53%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Aldrich

Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Aldrich by decision, about 43 in 100

Win chance: Aldrich 52%, Tarin 48%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Aldrich by decision43%
  2. Tarin by decision32%
  3. Tarin by KO/TKO11%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Aldrich 7%, Tarin 11%.
  2. Submission: Aldrich 2%, Tarin 5%.
  3. Decision: Aldrich 43%, Tarin 32%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Tarin: 48%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tarin: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 35%.

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 32%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tarin by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Tarin by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Aldrich by decision (43%); 2. Tarin by decision (32%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Tarin by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Tarin by decision (25%); 3. Aldrich by decision (24%)

  • Gemini

    1. Tarin by decision (53%); 2. Aldrich by decision (27%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Aldrich's 52% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 65% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 68% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 25%. Decision: 75%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 20%. Decision: 80%.

How does Aldrich win?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 24%.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 27%.

How does Tarin win?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%, decision 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tarin wins 65%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 25%.

  • Gemini

    Tarin wins 68%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%, decision 53%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin's most likely upset: Tarin by decision (32%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (24%).

  • Gemini

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (27%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Aldrich, Claude: Tarin, Gemini: Tarin).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aldrich by decision (43%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tarin by KO/TKO (30%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    25% (about 25 in 100).

  • Gemini

    53% (about 53 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 7%, decision 75%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 13%, decision 49%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 14%, submission 6%, decision 80%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin: 16%, against 9% for Aldrich.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tarin: 40%, against 11% for Aldrich.

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 15%, against 5% for Aldrich.

Can Aldrich get the finish? Can Tarin?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Tarin: 16% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Aldrich: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Tarin: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).

  • Gemini

    Aldrich: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%). Tarin: 15% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 5%. Tarin is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Aldrich is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Tarin is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 4%. Tarin is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 48%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich by decision: 43%. Tarin by decision: 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Aldrich by decision: 27%. Tarin by decision: 53%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    75%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    49%.

  • Gemini

    80%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 57%, Tarin 43%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 49%, Tarin 51%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 34%, Tarin 66%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Aldrich by decision, 43% here against 26% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Tarin by decision, 53% here against 29% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Aldrich (52%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (65%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (68%).

Which model is most confident on Aldrich, and which on Tarin?

  • ChatGPT

    On Aldrich: ChatGPT (52%). On Tarin: Gemini (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 53% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Half The Battle (Aldrich by decision) and MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) (Aldrich by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Aldrich, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    The MMA Guru (Tarin by decision), TheWeasle (Tarin by decision), Bedtime MMA (Tarin by decision), MMA JOEY (Tarin by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Tarin by decision), HopperMMA (Tarin by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Tarin by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Tarin by decision) and FightIQ (Tarin by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Tarin, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 53%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Tarin

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Tarin by KO/TKO, about 30 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Aldrich 35%, Tarin 65%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Tarin by KO/TKO30%
  2. Tarin by decision25%
  3. Aldrich by decision24%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Aldrich 8%, Tarin 30%.
  2. Submission: Aldrich 3%, Tarin 10%.
  3. Decision: Aldrich 24%, Tarin 25%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Tarin: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Tarin: 48%.

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 32%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Tarin by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Tarin by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Tarin by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Tarin by decision (25%); 3. Aldrich by decision (24%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Aldrich by decision (43%); 2. Tarin by decision (32%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

  • Gemini

    1. Tarin by decision (53%); 2. Aldrich by decision (27%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 65% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Aldrich's 52% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 68% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 25%. Decision: 75%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 20%. Decision: 80%.

How does Aldrich win?

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 27%.

How does Tarin win?

  • Claude

    Tarin wins 65%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 25%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%, decision 32%.

  • Gemini

    Tarin wins 68%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%, decision 53%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (24%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin's most likely upset: Tarin by decision (32%).

  • Gemini

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (27%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Aldrich, Claude: Tarin, Gemini: Tarin).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tarin by KO/TKO (30%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aldrich by decision (43%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    25% (about 25 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Gemini

    53% (about 53 in 100).

More questions (17)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 13%, decision 49%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 7%, decision 75%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 14%, submission 6%, decision 80%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Tarin: 40%, against 11% for Aldrich.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin: 16%, against 9% for Aldrich.

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 15%, against 5% for Aldrich.

Can Aldrich get the finish? Can Tarin?

  • Claude

    Aldrich: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Tarin: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Tarin: 16% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%).

  • Gemini

    Aldrich: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%). Tarin: 15% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Aldrich is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Tarin is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 5%. Tarin is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 4%. Tarin is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 48%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    49%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    75%.

  • Gemini

    80%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 49%, Tarin 51%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 57%, Tarin 43%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 34%, Tarin 66%.

Compared with others 3 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (65%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Aldrich (52%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (68%).

Which model is most confident on Aldrich, and which on Tarin?

  • Claude

    On Aldrich: ChatGPT (52%). On Tarin: Gemini (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Tarin by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 53% (Gemini).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 53%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Tarin

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Tarin by decision, about 53 in 100

Win chance: Aldrich 32%, Tarin 68%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Tarin by decision53%
  2. Aldrich by decision27%
  3. Tarin by KO/TKO11%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Aldrich 3%, Tarin 11%.
  2. Submission: Aldrich 2%, Tarin 4%.
  3. Decision: Aldrich 27%, Tarin 53%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Tarin: 48%.

  • Claude

    Tarin: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Aldrich: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Tarin by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

  • Claude

    Tarin by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Tarin by decision (53%); 2. Aldrich by decision (27%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Aldrich by decision (43%); 2. Tarin by decision (32%); 3. Tarin by KO/TKO (11%)

  • Claude

    1. Tarin by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Tarin by decision (25%); 3. Aldrich by decision (24%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 68% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Aldrich's 52% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Tarin's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 20%. Decision: 80%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 25%. Decision: 75%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

How does Aldrich win?

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 24%.

How does Tarin win?

  • Gemini

    Tarin wins 68%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%, decision 53%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Tarin wins 65%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%, decision 25%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (27%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin's most likely upset: Tarin by decision (32%).

  • Claude

    Aldrich's most likely upset: Aldrich by decision (24%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Aldrich, Claude: Tarin, Gemini: Tarin).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aldrich by decision (43%).

  • Claude

    Result: Tarin by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tarin by KO/TKO (30%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    53% (about 53 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    25% (about 25 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 14%, submission 6%, decision 80%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 7%, decision 75%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 13%, decision 49%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Tarin: 15%, against 5% for Aldrich.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin: 16%, against 9% for Aldrich.

  • Claude

    Tarin: 40%, against 11% for Aldrich.

Can Aldrich get the finish? Can Tarin?

  • Gemini

    Aldrich: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%). Tarin: 15% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 4%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Tarin: 16% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 5%).

  • Claude

    Aldrich: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Tarin: 40% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 10%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 4%. Tarin is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 5%. Tarin is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Aldrich is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 10%. Tarin is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 48%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Aldrich by decision: 27%. Tarin by decision: 53%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Aldrich by decision: 43%. Tarin by decision: 32%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Aldrich wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tarin wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Claude

    Aldrich wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    80%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    75%.

  • Claude

    49%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 34%, Tarin 66%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 57%, Tarin 43%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Aldrich 49%, Tarin 51%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Tarin by decision, 53% here against 29% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Aldrich by decision, 43% here against 26% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (68%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Aldrich (52%).

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 3 back Aldrich and 11 back Tarin. This model picks Tarin (65%).

Which model is most confident on Aldrich, and which on Tarin?

  • Gemini

    On Aldrich: ChatGPT (52%). On Tarin: Gemini (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Tarin by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 53% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    The MMA Guru (Tarin by decision), TheWeasle (Tarin by decision), Bedtime MMA (Tarin by decision), MMA JOEY (Tarin by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Tarin by decision), HopperMMA (Tarin by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Tarin by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Tarin by decision) and FightIQ (Tarin by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Tarin, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Half The Battle (Aldrich by decision) and MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) (Aldrich by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Aldrich, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 53%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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