Aldrich vs Tarin — Women's Flyweight · Silva vs. Delgado
- Wins
- 15
- Losses
- 7
- Draws
- 0
Red corner
- 15-7-0
- Record
- 8-0-0
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
Blue corner
Expectations
- 29%
- Market — blue corner favoredMarket expectations5-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice.
- 71%
- 2
- Analyst picksAnalysts — blue corner favoredAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. The ALL marker appears only when three or more picks agree.
- 7
- 40%
- AI prediction — blue corner favoredAI predictionAverage of eligible published AI model predictions. This is an editorial signal, not betting advice.
- 60%
5-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice. Counts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. Average of eligible published AI model predictions.
Full Tale of the Tape · +11 more stats · radar
- 15-7-0
- Record
- 8-0-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 50%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- Flyweight (moving up)
- Weight classWeight
- Women's Flyweight
- —
- Nationality
- —
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Aldrich
Aldrich brings established UFC experience and should benefit if she can make the bout technically layered. Her route is to use clean entries and disciplined positioning to prevent Tarin from building confidence in open exchanges.
Case for Tarin
Tarin's opportunity is to make the fight unpredictable early and test Aldrich's reactions with initiative rather than waiting for a veteran-led rhythm. If she can keep the exchanges fresh, she can create the upset conditions this matchup offers.
What to Watch
- Whether Aldrich can impose veteran pace and positioning.
- How Tarin handles the first sustained exchange.
- Which fighter wins the transitions between striking and grappling.
- Whether the bout becomes more competitive as Tarin settles in.
AI Predictions
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-7
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
2 of 3 models favour Tarin. The combined forecast puts 68% on Decision as the likeliest finish.
Where the models differ
The models differ on winner, finish method, round timing, confidence. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTAldrich · Decision · low confidence
- ClaudeTarin · KO/TKO · Round 2 · medium confidence
- GeminiTarin · Decision · medium confidence
Agreement 2 of 3 models pick Tarin.
Method outlook KO/TKO 23% · Submission 9% · Decision 68%.
Model spread 32%–52% Aldrich · 48%–68% Tarin.
Vs the market Market 29% Aldrich · 71% Tarin · as of 2026-09-11. AI mean 40% Aldrich · 60% Tarin.
Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
ChatGPT
gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
JJ Aldrich
Forecast
Aldrich is the pick at 52%, with Decision as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
Claude
claude-sonnet-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Regina Tarin
Forecast
Tarin is the pick at 65%, with KO/TKO · Round 2 as the forecast result.
11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
Gemini
provider-default-unreported · via AGY CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Regina Tarin
Forecast
Tarin is the pick at 68%, with Decision as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
Analyst picks: The MMA Guru picks Tarin; TheWeasle picks Tarin; We Want Picks picks Tarin; Half The Battle picks Aldrich; Bedtime MMA picks Tarin; MMA JOEY picks Tarin; DFS By The Numbers picks Tarin; HopperoMMA picks Tarin; MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Aldrich.
All 9 see it go the distance.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Half The Battle Analyst called 40 of 60 Half The Battle: picks Aldrich — Decision
Picks JJ Aldrich by Decision.
“Give me JJ Aldrich to win this controversial split decision.”
Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 22 of 38 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: picks Aldrich — Decision
Picks JJ Aldrich by split decision.
“I'm going to pick JJ Aldrich to win this fight via split decision.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks, 12 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 66 of 99 The MMA Guru: picks Tarin — Decision
Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.
“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin getting this one done by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 45 of 61 TheWeasle: picks Tarin — Decision
Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.
“I'm going to go with Regina Tarin winning by a decision.”
Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 79 of 121 We Want Picks: picks Tarin — to win
Picks Regina Tarin to win.
“I'm going to pick Regina here.”
Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 83 of 126 Bedtime MMA: picks Tarin — Decision
Picks Regina Tarin by Decision.
“Honestly, I'm gonna go with Tarin to win this one by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks, 37 a perfect call.
MMA JOEY Analyst called 18 of 27 MMA JOEY: picks Tarin — Decision
Picks Regina Tarin by decision.
“I'm going to pick Tarin to get it done. I'll say 29-28 decision win.”
Track record: winner called in 18 of 27 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 77 of 112 DFS By The Numbers: picks Tarin — Decision
Picks Regina Tarin by decision.
“I'll take her to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks, 30 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 58 of 92 HopperoMMA: picks Tarin — Decision
Picks Regina Tarin by decision.
“I'm going to go Regina Tarin by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks, 22 a perfect call.
Odds
What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.
Sportsbook consensus · Who wins
Favoured: Tarin
All 5 books consensus 29%
- BetOnline.ag29%0
- BetUS30%+1
- Bovada29%0
- DraftKings30%+1
- FanDuel28%−1
5 books within 2 points
Vig-stripped win probability for Aldrich at each book — the chance implied once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. The consensus is the median across books. The small bar under each book is its gap from the consensus, on a fixed ±5-point scale; a hatched bar is off that scale.
Fan Picks
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