Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Ignacio Bahamondes defeats Muslim Salikhov by unanimous decision

Win Ignacio Bahamondes 18-7-0
Loss Muslim Salikhov 22-7-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Bahamondes vs Salikhov — Welterweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The official UFC result confirms the winner and result.

The bout was recorded across the full official result entry.

Narrative detail remains limited to the verified result and method.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Bahamondes

Bahamondes is at his most effective when he can use length, movement and varied kicking attacks to make opponents reset. The matchup asks whether he can maintain that space against a veteran who is comfortable countering at range.

Case for Salikhov

Salikhov's experience and kickboxing craft give him a clear path if he can read Bahamondes' entries and make the younger fighter pay for overextension. His best rounds should come from reducing the fight to disciplined counter exchanges.

What We Were Watching For

  • How Bahamondes manages range against Salikhov's counters.
  • Whether Salikhov can pressure without giving up the outside lane.
  • Which fighter lands the cleaner kicks at long range.
  • How the pace changes if the fight reaches the later rounds.
Records & career stats
Bahamondes vs Salikhov
Bahamondes Salikhov
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.90 3.31
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 56% 61%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.93 3.20
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 69% 72%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 72% 77%
17-7-0
Record
22-6-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Chile
Nationality
Russia
29
Age
41
6′3″191 cm
Height — Bahamondes leads
5′11″180 cm
76″192 cm
Reach — Bahamondes leads
70″178 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
72%
Finish rateFinish % — Salikhov leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
77%
11
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Salikhov leads
15
2
Wins by submissionSub wins
2
5.90
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Bahamondes leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.31
3.93
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Salikhov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.20
56%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Salikhov leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
61%
69%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Salikhov leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
72%
11:11
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:26
Lightweight (moving up)
Weight classWeight
Welterweight
Valle Flow Striking Academy
Team
Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov School

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Live Dogs MMA
Hear it — 2:43 Live Dogs MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes; the transcript expresses both a KO preference and a decision pick, so method is left unspecified.

“I like him by KO, but I took him by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 10 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 76.9% (10 hit, 3 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).

View full track record (13 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 13:13 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO in round 2.

“We're going with Ignacio Bahamondes by round-two knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 17:33 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · Dec

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision.

“Ultimately, Ignacio Bahamondes wins the fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists Ignacio Bahamondes as its pick over Muslim Salikhov.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 5:37 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes; the caption garbles the surname.

“weight class. I'm going to pick Bahamandez.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:25 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout.

“Bahamondes will find his angle to find that knockout win over Muslim Salikhov.”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 18:18 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by TKO.

“I'm going to go Bahamondes by TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 14:18 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout in round 1.

“Give me Ignacio Bahamondes by first-round knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 84:31 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win.

“Ignacio Bahamondes is the pick.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 15:26 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by TKO in round 3.

“I'm going to go third-round TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 10:24 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · Dec

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by decision.

“I'm going to go with Bahamondes by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 31:50 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout or TKO.

“I'm going Ignacio Bahamondes by first- or second-round KO/TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 17:14 Kunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.

“Give me Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 29:05 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by KO.

“I think Ignacio Bahamondes is going to come out here and knock Salikhov out.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Muslim Salikhov

Fight result: Ignacio Bahamondes · Decision

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Muslim Salikhov.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Live Dogs MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Kunath Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

14 of 15 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Bahamondes · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT and Gemini put 81% on Bahamondes.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
81% Bahamondes
19% Salikhov
PickBahamondes · KO/TKO · R2ActualBahamondes · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
76% Bahamondes
24% Salikhov
PickBahamondes · KO/TKO · R1ActualBahamondes · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
81% Bahamondes
19% Salikhov
PickBahamondes · KO/TKO · R2ActualBahamondes · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Bahamondes

    Most likely: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, about 43 in 100

    Win chance: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Bahamondes

    Most likely: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, about 45 in 100

    Win chance: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Bahamondes

    Most likely: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, about 46 in 100

    Win chance: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Bahamondes.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 19%.

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 24%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 19%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 43% (about 43 in 100).

  • Claude

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (32%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (12%)

  • Claude

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (22%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (30%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (10%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 81% win chance.

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 76% win chance.

  • Gemini

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 81% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

How does Bahamondes win?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Bahamondes wins 76%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%, decision 30%.

How does Salikhov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 6%.

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

  • Gemini

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 8%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Bahamondes.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%).

  • Claude

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    22% (about 22 in 100).

  • Gemini

    30% (about 30 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 7%, decision 38%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 11%, decision 29%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 56%, submission 6%, decision 38%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49%, against 13% for Salikhov.

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54%, against 17% for Salikhov.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51%, against 11% for Salikhov.

Can Bahamondes get the finish? Can Salikhov?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49% (KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%). Salikhov: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%). Salikhov: 17% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%).

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%). Salikhov: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 43% and submitted in 6%.

  • Claude

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 2%. Salikhov is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 9%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Salikhov wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Salikhov wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    38%.

  • Claude

    29%.

  • Gemini

    38%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 84%, Salikhov 16%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 79%, Salikhov 21%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Bahamondes by decision, 32% here against 26% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Bahamondes by decision, 22% here against 31% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (81%).

  • Claude

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (76%).

  • Gemini

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (81%).

Which model is most confident on Bahamondes, and which on Salikhov?

  • All models

    On Bahamondes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (81%). On Salikhov: Claude (24%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Bahamondes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 32%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Bahamondes

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, about 43 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO43%
  2. Bahamondes by decision32%
  3. Salikhov by KO/TKO12%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Bahamondes 43%, Salikhov 12%.
  2. Submission: Bahamondes 6%, Salikhov 1%.
  3. Decision: Bahamondes 32%, Salikhov 6%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 19%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 24%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 43% (about 43 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (32%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (12%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (22%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (30%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (10%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 81% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 76% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.

How does Bahamondes win?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%, decision 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bahamondes wins 76%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%, decision 30%.

How does Salikhov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 6%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

  • Gemini

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 8%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Bahamondes.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    22% (about 22 in 100).

  • Gemini

    30% (about 30 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 7%, decision 38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 11%, decision 29%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 56%, submission 6%, decision 38%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49%, against 13% for Salikhov.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54%, against 17% for Salikhov.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51%, against 11% for Salikhov.

Can Bahamondes get the finish? Can Salikhov?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49% (KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%). Salikhov: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%). Salikhov: 17% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%).

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%). Salikhov: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 43% and submitted in 6%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 2%. Salikhov is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 9%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Salikhov wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    29%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 84%, Salikhov 16%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 79%, Salikhov 21%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Bahamondes by decision, 32% here against 26% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Bahamondes by decision, 22% here against 31% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (81%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (76%).

Which model is most confident on Bahamondes, and which on Salikhov?

  • ChatGPT

    On Bahamondes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (81%). On Salikhov: Claude (24%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 32%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Bahamondes

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, about 45 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 1.

Win chance: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO45%
  2. Bahamondes by decision22%
  3. Salikhov by KO/TKO15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Bahamondes 45%, Salikhov 15%.
  2. Submission: Bahamondes 9%, Salikhov 2%.
  3. Decision: Bahamondes 22%, Salikhov 7%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 19%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 19%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 43% (about 43 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (22%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (15%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (32%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (12%)

  • Gemini

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (30%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (10%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 76% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 81% win chance.

  • Gemini

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 81% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

How does Bahamondes win?

  • Claude

    Bahamondes wins 76%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%, decision 32%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%, decision 30%.

How does Salikhov win?

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 6%.

  • Gemini

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 8%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Bahamondes.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    22% (about 22 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Gemini

    30% (about 30 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 11%, decision 29%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 7%, decision 38%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 56%, submission 6%, decision 38%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54%, against 17% for Salikhov.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49%, against 13% for Salikhov.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51%, against 11% for Salikhov.

Can Bahamondes get the finish? Can Salikhov?

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%). Salikhov: 17% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49% (KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%). Salikhov: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%). Salikhov: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 2%. Salikhov is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 9%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 43% and submitted in 6%.

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Salikhov wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Salikhov wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    29%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    38%.

  • Gemini

    38%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 84%, Salikhov 16%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 79%, Salikhov 21%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Bahamondes by decision, 22% here against 31% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Bahamondes by decision, 32% here against 26% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (76%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (81%).

  • Gemini

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (81%).

Which model is most confident on Bahamondes, and which on Salikhov?

  • Claude

    On Bahamondes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (81%). On Salikhov: Claude (24%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Bahamondes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 32%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Bahamondes

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, about 46 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Bahamondes 81%, Salikhov 19%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO46%
  2. Bahamondes by decision30%
  3. Salikhov by KO/TKO10%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Bahamondes 46%, Salikhov 10%.
  2. Submission: Bahamondes 5%, Salikhov 1%.
  3. Decision: Bahamondes 30%, Salikhov 8%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 81% (about 81 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 19%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 76% (about 76 in 100 fights). Salikhov: 24%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 43% (about 43 in 100).

  • Claude

    Bahamondes by KO/TKO: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (30%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (10%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (32%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (12%)

  • Claude

    1. Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%); 2. Bahamondes by decision (22%); 3. Salikhov by KO/TKO (15%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 81% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Bahamondes's 76% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.

How does Bahamondes win?

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%, decision 30%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes wins 81%: KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Bahamondes wins 76%: KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

How does Salikhov win?

  • Gemini

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%, decision 8%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Salikhov wins 19%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 6%.

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Bahamondes.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (46%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (43%).

  • Claude

    Result: Bahamondes by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bahamondes by KO/TKO (45%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    30% (about 30 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    22% (about 22 in 100).

More questions (17)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 56%, submission 6%, decision 38%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 7%, decision 38%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 11%, decision 29%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51%, against 11% for Salikhov.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49%, against 13% for Salikhov.

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54%, against 17% for Salikhov.

Can Bahamondes get the finish? Can Salikhov?

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes: 51% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 5%). Salikhov: 11% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 1%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes: 49% (KO/TKO 43%, submission 6%). Salikhov: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Bahamondes: 54% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 9%). Salikhov: 17% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Salikhov is knocked out in 43% and submitted in 6%.

  • Claude

    Bahamondes is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 2%. Salikhov is knocked out in 45% and submitted in 9%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 81% vs 19%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 76% vs 24%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Salikhov wins 19% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Salikhov wins 24% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    29%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 79%, Salikhov 21%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 84%, Salikhov 16%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Bahamondes 76%, Salikhov 24%.

Compared with others 3 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (81%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 15 analyst picks, 14 back Bahamondes and 1 backs Salikhov. This model picks Bahamondes (76%).

Which model is most confident on Bahamondes, and which on Salikhov?

  • Gemini

    On Bahamondes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (81%). On Salikhov: Claude (24%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Bahamondes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 32%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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