Belgaroui vs Santos — Middleweight · Silva vs. Delgado
Red corner
- 10-3-0
- Record
- 11-3-0
Blue corner
Expectations
- 85%
- Market — red corner favoredMarket expectations6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice.
- 15%
- 6
- Analyst picksAnalysts — red corner unanimousAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. The ALL marker appears only when three or more picks agree.
- 0
- 77%
- AI prediction — red corner favoredAI predictionAverage of eligible published AI model predictions. This is an editorial signal, not betting advice.
- 23%
6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice. Counts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. Average of eligible published AI model predictions.
Full Tale of the Tape · +11 more stats · radar
- 10-3-0
- Record
- 11-3-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 13:02
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 14:48
- Netherlands
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Teixeira MMA & Fitness-Bethel, CT
- Team
- American Top Team
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Belgaroui
Belgaroui's kickboxing background gives him a natural emphasis on distance, timing and straight-line damage. He needs to keep the fight structured enough to make those tools matter before Santos can turn it into a clinch-heavy contest.
Case for Santos
Santos can make the bout difficult by closing space and forcing exchanges where raw athleticism and physicality matter more than clean kickboxing rhythm. His opportunity is to disrupt Belgaroui's preferred range early.
What to Watch
- Whether Belgaroui can establish the long-range striking battle.
- How Santos closes distance without absorbing damaging entries.
- The importance of clinch control along the fence.
- Which fighter dictates the tempo after the opening exchanges.
AI Predictions
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-7
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
3 of 3 models favour Belgaroui. The combined forecast puts 55% on KO/TKO as the likeliest finish.
Where the models differ
The models differ on round timing. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTBelgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 3 · high confidence
- ClaudeBelgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 2 · high confidence
- GeminiBelgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 2 · high confidence
Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Belgaroui.
Method outlook KO/TKO 55% · Submission 9% · Decision 36%.
Model spread 73%–82% Belgaroui · 18%–27% Santos.
Vs the market Market 85% Belgaroui · 15% Santos · as of 2026-09-11. AI mean 77% Belgaroui · 23% Santos.
Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
ChatGPT
gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Yousri Belgaroui
Forecast
Belgaroui is the pick at 75%, with KO/TKO · Round 3 as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
Claude
claude-sonnet-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Yousri Belgaroui
Forecast
Belgaroui is the pick at 82%, with KO/TKO · Round 2 as the forecast result.
11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
Gemini
provider-default-unreported · via AGY CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Yousri Belgaroui
Forecast
Belgaroui is the pick at 73%, with KO/TKO · Round 2 as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
Analyst picks: The MMA Guru picks Belgaroui; We Want Picks picks Belgaroui; Bedtime MMA picks Belgaroui; MMA JOEY picks Belgaroui; HopperoMMA picks Belgaroui; MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Belgaroui.
4 of 6 see a finish — 4 by KO/TKO, 1 by decision.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
The MMA Guru Analyst called 66 of 99 The MMA Guru: picks Belgaroui — KO/TKO
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO.
“I'm going to go Yousri Belgaroui by TKO over Djorden Santos.”
Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 79 of 121 We Want Picks: picks Belgaroui — to win
Picks Yousri Belgaroui to win.
“Yousri Belgaroui is the very confident pick.”
Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 83 of 126 Bedtime MMA: picks Belgaroui — Decision
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by Decision.
“I'm going to go with Yousri Belgaroui to win this by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks, 37 a perfect call.
MMA JOEY Analyst called 18 of 27 MMA JOEY: picks Belgaroui — KO/TKO · R1
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.
“I'm picking Belgaroui, first-round brutal highlight-reel KO.”
Track record: winner called in 18 of 27 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 58 of 92 HopperoMMA: picks Belgaroui — KO/TKO · R1
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.
“I'm going to go with Belgaroui in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks, 22 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 22 of 38 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: picks Belgaroui — KO/TKO · R3
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO in round 3.
“I'm going to pick Belgaroui to win a third-round TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks, 12 a perfect call.
Odds
What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.
Sportsbook consensus · Who wins
Favoured: Belgaroui
All 6 books consensus 85%
- BetOnline.ag85%0
- BetRivers84%−1
- BetUS84%−1
- Bovada86%+1
- DraftKings86%+1
- FanDuel85%0
6 books within 2 points
Vig-stripped win probability for Belgaroui at each book — the chance implied once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. The consensus is the median across books. The small bar under each book is its gap from the consensus, on a fixed ±5-point scale; a hatched bar is off that scale.
Fan Picks
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