Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Yousri Belgaroui defeats Djorden Santos by KO/TKO

Win Yousri Belgaroui 11-3-0
Loss Djorden Santos 11-4-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 1 · 4:25

Belgaroui vs Santos — Middleweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The official UFC result confirms the winner and result.

The bout was recorded across the full official result entry.

Narrative detail remains limited to the verified result and method.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Belgaroui

Belgaroui's kickboxing background gives him a natural emphasis on distance, timing and straight-line damage. He needs to keep the fight structured enough to make those tools matter before Santos can turn it into a clinch-heavy contest.

Case for Santos

Santos can make the bout difficult by closing space and forcing exchanges where raw athleticism and physicality matter more than clean kickboxing rhythm. His opportunity is to disrupt Belgaroui's preferred range early.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Belgaroui can establish the long-range striking battle.
  • How Santos closes distance without absorbing damaging entries.
  • The importance of clinch control along the fence.
  • Which fighter dictates the tempo after the opening exchanges.
Records & career stats
Belgaroui vs Santos
Belgaroui Santos
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 6.44 6.43
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 64% 48%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.28 6.63
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 67% 85%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 80% 64%
10-3-0
Record
11-3-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Netherlands
Nationality
Brazil
34
Age
28
6′6″198 cm
Height — Belgaroui leads
6′0″183 cm
79″201 cm
Reach — Belgaroui leads
76″192 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
80%
Finish rateFinish % — Belgaroui leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
64%
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Belgaroui leads
3
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Santos leads
4
6.44
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.43
2.28
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Belgaroui leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.63
64%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Belgaroui leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
48%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Santos leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
85%
11:19
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:43
Teixeira MMA & Fitness-Bethel, CT
Team
American Top Team

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Yousri Belgaroui Octagon Interview | Noche UFC

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:47 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · Dec

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Yousri Belgaroui to win this by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · Dec

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

FightIQ's public record lists Yousri Belgaroui as its pick over Djorden Santos.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 5:06 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by KO; the caption garbles the surname.

“taking on Jordan Santos. Oh no, I'm going Belgree obviously by KO.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:07 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout within two rounds; the captions vary between Bel Garoui and Bel agreed.

“eventually lining up a big knockout within two rounds.”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 15:17 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO.

“I'm going to go Yousri Belgaroui by TKO over Djorden Santos.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 78:10 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui to win.

“Yousri Belgaroui is the very confident pick.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 12:15 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.

“I'm picking Belgaroui, first-round brutal highlight-reel KO.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:40 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Belgaroui in the first round.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 28:31 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO in round 3.

“I'm going to pick Belgaroui to win a third-round TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Djorden Santos

Fight result: Yousri Belgaroui · KO/TKO

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Djorden Santos.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; We Want Picks Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

9 of 10 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability Claude put 82% on Belgaroui.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
75% Belgaroui
25% Santos
PickBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R3ActualBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
82% Belgaroui
18% Santos
PickBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R2ActualBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
73% Belgaroui
27% Santos
PickBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R2ActualBelgaroui · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Belgaroui

    Most likely: Belgaroui by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100

    Win chance: Belgaroui 75%, Santos 25%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Belgaroui

    Most likely: Belgaroui by KO/TKO, about 55 in 100

    Win chance: Belgaroui 82%, Santos 18%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Belgaroui

    Most likely: Belgaroui by KO/TKO, about 46 in 100

    Win chance: Belgaroui 73%, Santos 27%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Belgaroui.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Santos: 25%.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Santos: 18%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Santos: 27%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).

  • Claude

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 55% (about 55 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (13%)

  • Claude

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (55%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (22%); 3. Santos by submission (7%)

  • Gemini

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (14%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 75% win chance.

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 82% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 73% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 40%.

How does Belgaroui win?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui wins 75%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui wins 82%: KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui wins 73%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

How does Santos win?

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%, decision 6%.

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 14%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Santos's most likely upset: Santos by decision (13%).

  • Gemini

    Santos's most likely upset: Santos by decision (14%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Belgaroui.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • All models

    Result: Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.

More questions (16)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 6%, decision 39%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 12%, decision 28%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 9%, decision 40%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49%, against 12% for Santos.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60%, against 12% for Santos.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47%, against 13% for Santos.

Can Belgaroui get the finish? Can Santos?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%).

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60% (KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%). Santos: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 7%. Santos is knocked out in 55% and submitted in 5%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    39%.

  • Claude

    28%.

  • Gemini

    40%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 67%, Santos 33%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 79%, Santos 21%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 65%, Santos 35%.

Compared with others 3 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 13% here against 10% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (75%).

  • Claude

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (82%).

  • Gemini

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (73%).

Which model is most confident on Belgaroui, and which on Santos?

  • All models

    On Belgaroui: Claude (82%). On Santos: Gemini (27%).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Belgaroui

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Belgaroui by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 3.

Win chance: Belgaroui 75%, Santos 25%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO48%
  2. Belgaroui by decision26%
  3. Santos by decision13%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Belgaroui 48%, Santos 7%.
  2. Submission: Belgaroui 1%, Santos 5%.
  3. Decision: Belgaroui 26%, Santos 13%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Santos: 25%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Santos: 18%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Santos: 27%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 55% (about 55 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (13%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (55%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (22%); 3. Santos by submission (7%)

  • Gemini

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (14%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 75% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 82% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 73% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 40%.

How does Belgaroui win?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui wins 75%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Belgaroui wins 82%: KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui wins 73%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

How does Santos win?

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%, decision 6%.

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 14%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Santos's most likely upset: Santos by decision (13%).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Santos's most likely upset: Santos by decision (14%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Belgaroui.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.

More questions (16)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 6%, decision 39%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 12%, decision 28%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 9%, decision 40%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49%, against 12% for Santos.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60%, against 12% for Santos.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47%, against 13% for Santos.

Can Belgaroui get the finish? Can Santos?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60% (KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%). Santos: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 7%. Santos is knocked out in 55% and submitted in 5%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    39%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    28%.

  • Gemini

    40%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 67%, Santos 33%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 79%, Santos 21%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 65%, Santos 35%.

Compared with others 3 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 13% here against 10% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (75%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (82%).

  • Gemini

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (73%).

Which model is most confident on Belgaroui, and which on Santos?

  • ChatGPT

    On Belgaroui: Claude (82%). On Santos: Gemini (27%).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Belgaroui

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Belgaroui by KO/TKO, about 55 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Belgaroui 82%, Santos 18%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO55%
  2. Belgaroui by decision22%
  3. Santos by submission7%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Belgaroui 55%, Santos 5%.
  2. Submission: Belgaroui 5%, Santos 7%.
  3. Decision: Belgaroui 22%, Santos 6%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Santos: 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Santos: 25%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Santos: 27%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 55% (about 55 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (55%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (22%); 3. Santos by submission (7%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (13%)

  • Gemini

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (14%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 82% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 75% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 73% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 40%.

How does Belgaroui win?

  • Claude

    Belgaroui wins 82%: KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui wins 75%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui wins 73%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

How does Santos win?

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%, decision 6%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 14%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Belgaroui.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.

More questions (15)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 12%, decision 28%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 6%, decision 39%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 9%, decision 40%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60%, against 12% for Santos.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49%, against 12% for Santos.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47%, against 13% for Santos.

Can Belgaroui get the finish? Can Santos?

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60% (KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%).

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%). Santos: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 7%. Santos is knocked out in 55% and submitted in 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 1%.

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    28%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    39%.

  • Gemini

    40%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 79%, Santos 21%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 67%, Santos 33%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 65%, Santos 35%.

Compared with others 2 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (82%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (75%).

  • Gemini

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (73%).

Which model is most confident on Belgaroui, and which on Santos?

  • Claude

    On Belgaroui: Claude (82%). On Santos: Gemini (27%).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Belgaroui

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Belgaroui by KO/TKO, about 46 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Belgaroui 73%, Santos 27%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO46%
  2. Belgaroui by decision26%
  3. Santos by decision14%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Belgaroui 46%, Santos 5%.
  2. Submission: Belgaroui 1%, Santos 8%.
  3. Decision: Belgaroui 26%, Santos 14%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 73% (about 73 in 100 fights). Santos: 27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Santos: 25%.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Santos: 18%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).

  • Claude

    Belgaroui by KO/TKO: 55% (about 55 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (14%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (26%); 3. Santos by decision (13%)

  • Claude

    1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (55%); 2. Belgaroui by decision (22%); 3. Santos by submission (7%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 73% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 75% win chance.

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Belgaroui's 82% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 40%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%.

How does Belgaroui win?

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui wins 73%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui wins 75%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%, decision 26%.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui wins 82%: KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

How does Santos win?

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%, decision 6%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Santos's most likely upset: Santos by decision (14%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Santos's most likely upset: Santos by decision (13%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Belgaroui.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Belgaroui by KO/TKO in round 1. Belgaroui by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.

More questions (15)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 9%, decision 40%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 55%, submission 6%, decision 39%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 60%, submission 12%, decision 28%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47%, against 13% for Santos.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49%, against 12% for Santos.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60%, against 12% for Santos.

Can Belgaroui get the finish? Can Santos?

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui: 47% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 1%). Santos: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui: 49% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 1%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 5%).

  • Claude

    Belgaroui: 60% (KO/TKO 55%, submission 5%). Santos: 12% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 7%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Belgaroui is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 7%. Santos is knocked out in 55% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 73% vs 27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Santos wins 27% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Santos wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Santos wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    40%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    39%.

  • Claude

    28%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 65%, Santos 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 67%, Santos 33%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Belgaroui 79%, Santos 21%.

Compared with others 2 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (73%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (75%).

  • Claude

    Of 10 analyst picks, 9 back Belgaroui and 1 backs Santos. This model picks Belgaroui (82%).

Which model is most confident on Belgaroui, and which on Santos?

  • Gemini

    On Belgaroui: Claude (82%). On Santos: Gemini (27%).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.