Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Tim Elliott defeats Edgar Chairez by unanimous decision

Win Tim Elliott 22-14-1
Loss Edgar Chairez 14-7-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Elliott vs Chairez — Catchweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Elliott vs Chairez
21-14-1
Record
14-6-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Mexico
39
Age
30
5′7″170 cm
Height
5′7″170 cm
66″168 cm
Reach — Chairez leads
71″180 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
—
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
93%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Chairez leads
4
8
Wins by submissionSub wins — Chairez leads
9
3.55
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Chairez leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.78
3.05
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Elliott leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.64
56%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Elliott leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
59%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Elliott leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
12:23
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:45

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 16:14 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.

“I think Tim Elliott's going to win this by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 19:54 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.

“Tim Elliott by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 6:46 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by KO; the caption garbles the surname.

“And honestly, I have a hot take here. I'm picking Edgar Shyz by KO.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 36:02 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by decision.

“I'm going to go with the veteran Tim Elliott.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Tim Elliott.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists Edgar Chairez as its pick over Tim Elliott.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:46 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission.

“Chairez sinking in a submission and forcing the tap.”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 20:53 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by TKO.

“I'm going to say that Edgar Chairez catches Tim Elliott by TKO here.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 17:41 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 2.

“I think Chairez wins. I'll take him by second-round submission.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 17:53 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 1.

“I think he subs Elliott, first-round sub.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:58 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez to win.

“I'm going to go Edgar Chairez.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 15:54 Kunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission.

“Give me Edgar Chairez by submission.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 27:04 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez to win.

“I'm going to pick Edgar Chairez to win.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Miss; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Kunath Miss; Half The Battle Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.

5 of 13 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Elliott · Decision · R3

Closest probability Gemini put 35% on Elliott.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
31% Elliott
69% Chairez
PickChairez · Submission · R2ActualElliott · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
32% Elliott
68% Chairez
PickChairez · Submission · R1ActualElliott · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
35% Elliott
65% Chairez
PickChairez · Submission · R2ActualElliott · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Chairez

    Most likely: Chairez by submission, about 30 in 100

    Win chance: Elliott 31%, Chairez 69%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Chairez

    Most likely: Chairez by submission, about 35 in 100

    Win chance: Elliott 32%, Chairez 68%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Chairez

    Most likely: Chairez by submission, about 28 in 100

    Win chance: Elliott 35%, Chairez 65%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Chairez.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 69% (about 69 in 100 fights). Elliott: 31%.

  • Claude

    Chairez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Elliott: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Elliott: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez by submission: 30% (about 30 in 100).

  • Claude

    Chairez by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Chairez by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chairez by submission (30%); 2. Chairez by decision (27%); 3. Elliott by decision (18%)

  • Claude

    1. Chairez by submission (35%); 2. Chairez by decision (20%); 3. Elliott by decision (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Chairez by submission (28%); 2. Elliott by decision (23%); 2. Chairez by decision (23%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 69% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 68% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.

How does Elliott win?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%, decision 18%.

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 15%.

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%, decision 23%.

How does Chairez win?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez wins 69%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%, decision 27%.

  • Claude

    Chairez wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%, decision 20%.

  • Gemini

    Chairez wins 65%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%, decision 23%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (18%).

  • Claude

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (15%).

  • Gemini

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (23%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chairez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (30%).

  • Claude

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (35%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (28%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    18% (about 18 in 100).

  • Claude

    15% (about 15 in 100).

  • Gemini

    23% (about 23 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 15%, submission 40%, decision 45%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 47%, decision 35%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 17%, submission 37%, decision 46%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 42%, against 13% for Elliott.

  • Claude

    Chairez: 48%, against 17% for Elliott.

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 42%, against 12% for Elliott.

Can Elliott get the finish? Can Chairez?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott: 13% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%).

  • Claude

    Elliott: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%). Chairez: 48% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%).

  • Gemini

    Elliott: 12% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 30%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 10%.

  • Claude

    Elliott is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 35%. Chairez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%.

  • Gemini

    Elliott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 28%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 9%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 69% vs 31%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

  • Claude

    35%.

  • Gemini

    46%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 40%, Chairez 60%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 43%, Chairez 57%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 50%, Chairez 50%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Chairez by decision, 27% here against 22% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Elliott by decision, 23% here against 17% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (69%).

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (68%).

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (65%).

Which model is most confident on Elliott, and which on Chairez?

  • All models

    On Elliott: Gemini (35%). On Chairez: ChatGPT (69%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Elliott by decision: from 15% (Claude) to 23% (Gemini).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 23%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Chairez

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Chairez by submission, about 30 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Elliott 31%, Chairez 69%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Chairez by submission30%
  2. Chairez by decision27%
  3. Elliott by decision18%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Elliott 3%, Chairez 12%.
  2. Submission: Elliott 10%, Chairez 30%.
  3. Decision: Elliott 18%, Chairez 27%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 69% (about 69 in 100 fights). Elliott: 31%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chairez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Elliott: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Elliott: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez by submission: 30% (about 30 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chairez by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Chairez by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chairez by submission (30%); 2. Chairez by decision (27%); 3. Elliott by decision (18%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Chairez by submission (35%); 2. Chairez by decision (20%); 3. Elliott by decision (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Chairez by submission (28%); 2. Elliott by decision (23%); 2. Chairez by decision (23%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 69% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 68% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.

How does Elliott win?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%, decision 18%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 15%.

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%, decision 23%.

How does Chairez win?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez wins 69%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%, decision 27%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chairez wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%, decision 20%.

  • Gemini

    Chairez wins 65%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%, decision 23%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (18%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (15%).

  • Gemini

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (23%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chairez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (30%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (35%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (28%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    18% (about 18 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    15% (about 15 in 100).

  • Gemini

    23% (about 23 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 15%, submission 40%, decision 45%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 47%, decision 35%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 17%, submission 37%, decision 46%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 42%, against 13% for Elliott.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Chairez: 48%, against 17% for Elliott.

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 42%, against 12% for Elliott.

Can Elliott get the finish? Can Chairez?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott: 13% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Elliott: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%). Chairez: 48% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%).

  • Gemini

    Elliott: 12% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 30%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 10%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Elliott is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 35%. Chairez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%.

  • Gemini

    Elliott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 28%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 9%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 69% vs 31%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    35%.

  • Gemini

    46%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 40%, Chairez 60%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 43%, Chairez 57%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 50%, Chairez 50%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Chairez by decision, 27% here against 22% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Elliott by decision, 23% here against 17% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (69%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (68%).

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (65%).

Which model is most confident on Elliott, and which on Chairez?

  • ChatGPT

    On Elliott: Gemini (35%). On Chairez: ChatGPT (69%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott by decision: from 15% (Claude) to 23% (Gemini).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 23%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Chairez

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Chairez by submission, about 35 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 1.

Win chance: Elliott 32%, Chairez 68%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Chairez by submission35%
  2. Chairez by decision20%
  3. Elliott by decision15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Elliott 5%, Chairez 13%.
  2. Submission: Elliott 12%, Chairez 35%.
  3. Decision: Elliott 15%, Chairez 20%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Chairez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Elliott: 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 69% (about 69 in 100 fights). Elliott: 31%.

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Elliott: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Chairez by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez by submission: 30% (about 30 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Chairez by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Chairez by submission (35%); 2. Chairez by decision (20%); 3. Elliott by decision (15%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chairez by submission (30%); 2. Chairez by decision (27%); 3. Elliott by decision (18%)

  • Gemini

    1. Chairez by submission (28%); 2. Elliott by decision (23%); 2. Chairez by decision (23%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 68% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 69% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.

How does Elliott win?

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 15%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%, decision 18%.

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%, decision 23%.

How does Chairez win?

  • Claude

    Chairez wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%, decision 20%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez wins 69%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%, decision 27%.

  • Gemini

    Chairez wins 65%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%, decision 23%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (15%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (18%).

  • Gemini

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (23%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chairez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (35%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (30%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (28%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    15% (about 15 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    18% (about 18 in 100).

  • Gemini

    23% (about 23 in 100).

More questions (17)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 47%, decision 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 15%, submission 40%, decision 45%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 17%, submission 37%, decision 46%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Chairez: 48%, against 17% for Elliott.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 42%, against 13% for Elliott.

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 42%, against 12% for Elliott.

Can Elliott get the finish? Can Chairez?

  • Claude

    Elliott: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%). Chairez: 48% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott: 13% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%).

  • Gemini

    Elliott: 12% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Elliott is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 35%. Chairez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 30%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 10%.

  • Gemini

    Elliott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 28%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 9%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 69% vs 31%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

  • Gemini

    46%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 43%, Chairez 57%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 40%, Chairez 60%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 50%, Chairez 50%.

Compared with others 3 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (68%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (69%).

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (65%).

Which model is most confident on Elliott, and which on Chairez?

  • Claude

    On Elliott: Gemini (35%). On Chairez: ChatGPT (69%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Elliott by decision: from 15% (Claude) to 23% (Gemini).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 23%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Chairez

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Chairez by submission, about 28 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Elliott 35%, Chairez 65%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Chairez by submission28%
  2. Elliott by decision, tied for number 223%
  3. Chairez by decision, tied for number 223%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Elliott 3%, Chairez 14%.
  2. Submission: Elliott 9%, Chairez 28%.
  3. Decision: Elliott 23%, Chairez 23%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Elliott: 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 69% (about 69 in 100 fights). Elliott: 31%.

  • Claude

    Chairez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Elliott: 32%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Chairez by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez by submission: 30% (about 30 in 100).

  • Claude

    Chairez by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Chairez by submission (28%); 2. Elliott by decision (23%); 2. Chairez by decision (23%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Chairez by submission (30%); 2. Chairez by decision (27%); 3. Elliott by decision (18%)

  • Claude

    1. Chairez by submission (35%); 2. Chairez by decision (20%); 3. Elliott by decision (15%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 65% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 69% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Chairez's 68% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

How does Elliott win?

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%, decision 23%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%, decision 18%.

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%, decision 15%.

How does Chairez win?

  • Gemini

    Chairez wins 65%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%, decision 23%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez wins 69%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%, decision 27%.

  • Claude

    Chairez wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%, decision 20%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (23%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (18%).

  • Claude

    Elliott's most likely upset: Elliott by decision (15%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Chairez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (28%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (30%).

  • Claude

    Result: Elliott by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Chairez by submission (35%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    23% (about 23 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    18% (about 18 in 100).

  • Claude

    15% (about 15 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 17%, submission 37%, decision 46%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 15%, submission 40%, decision 45%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 47%, decision 35%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Chairez: 42%, against 12% for Elliott.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chairez: 42%, against 13% for Elliott.

  • Claude

    Chairez: 48%, against 17% for Elliott.

Can Elliott get the finish? Can Chairez?

  • Gemini

    Elliott: 12% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 9%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 28%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott: 13% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 10%). Chairez: 42% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 30%).

  • Claude

    Elliott: 17% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 12%). Chairez: 48% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 35%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Elliott is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 28%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 9%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 30%. Chairez is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 10%.

  • Claude

    Elliott is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 35%. Chairez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 12%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 69% vs 31%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Elliott wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Elliott wins 31% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Elliott wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    46%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

  • Claude

    35%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 50%, Chairez 50%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 40%, Chairez 60%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Elliott 43%, Chairez 57%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Elliott by decision, 23% here against 17% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Chairez by decision, 27% here against 22% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (65%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (69%).

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 5 back Elliott and 8 back Chairez. This model picks Chairez (68%).

Which model is most confident on Elliott, and which on Chairez?

  • Gemini

    On Elliott: Gemini (35%). On Chairez: ChatGPT (69%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Elliott by decision: from 15% (Claude) to 23% (Gemini).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 23%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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