Elliott vs Chairez — Flyweight · Silva vs. Delgado
- Wins
- 21
- Losses
- 14
- Draws
- 1
Red corner
- 21-14-1
- Record
- 14-6-0
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- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
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Blue corner
Expectations
- 34%
- Market — blue corner favoredMarket expectations6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 14:23. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice.
- 66%
- 33%
- AI prediction — blue corner favoredAI predictionAverage of eligible published AI model predictions. This is an editorial signal, not betting advice.
- 67%
6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 14:23. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice. Average of eligible published AI model predictions.
Full Tale of the Tape · +10 more stats · radar
- 21-14-1
- Record
- 14-6-0
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- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Nationality
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Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Elliott
Elliott brings long UFC-level experience and a varied grappling game into the matchup. His route to victory is likely to involve forcing Chairez to work through changing positions rather than allowing a clean, single-phase fight.
Case for Chairez
Chairez has the opportunity to make the exchanges more direct and dangerous, particularly if he can keep the fight in striking range. A composed performance against Elliott would give him a meaningful step in the flyweight picture.
What to Watch
- Whether Elliott can turn the bout into a chain-wrestling and scrambling contest.
- How Chairez manages distance and the first clean striking exchanges.
- Which fighter wins the transitions after the first takedown attempt.
- Whether veteran experience or younger offensive momentum controls the later rounds.
AI Predictions
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-7
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
3 of 3 models favour Chairez. The combined forecast puts 42% on Decision as the likeliest finish.
Where the models differ
The models differ on round timing. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTChairez · Submission · Round 2 · medium confidence
- ClaudeChairez · Submission · Round 1 · medium confidence
- GeminiChairez · Submission · Round 2 · medium confidence
Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Chairez.
Method outlook KO/TKO 17% · Submission 41% · Decision 42%.
Model spread 31%–35% Elliott · 65%–69% Chairez.
Vs the market Market 34% Elliott · 66% Chairez · as of 2026-09-11. AI mean 33% Elliott · 67% Chairez.
Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
ChatGPT
gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Edgar Chairez
Forecast
Chairez is the pick at 69%, with Submission · Round 2 as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
Claude
claude-sonnet-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Edgar Chairez
Forecast
Chairez is the pick at 68%, with Submission · Round 1 as the forecast result.
11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
Gemini
provider-default-unreported · via AGY CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Edgar Chairez
Forecast
Chairez is the pick at 65%, with Submission · Round 2 as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
Analyst picks: The MMA Guru picks Chairez; TheWeasle picks Elliott; Half The Battle picks Chairez; Bedtime MMA picks Elliott; MMA JOEY picks Chairez; DFS By The Numbers picks Chairez; HopperoMMA picks Chairez; MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Elliott.
3 of 8 see a finish — 1 by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 3 by decision.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
TheWeasle Analyst called 45 of 61 TheWeasle: picks Elliott — Decision
Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.
“Tim Elliott by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 83 of 126 Bedtime MMA: picks Elliott — Decision
Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.
“I think Tim Elliott's going to win this by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks, 37 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 22 of 38 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: picks Elliott — Decision
Picks Tim Elliott by decision.
“I'm going to go with the veteran Tim Elliott.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks, 12 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 66 of 99 The MMA Guru: picks Chairez — KO/TKO
Picks Edgar Chairez by TKO.
“I'm going to say that Edgar Chairez catches Tim Elliott by TKO here.”
Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 40 of 60 Half The Battle: picks Chairez — to win
Picks Edgar Chairez to win.
“I'm going to pick Edgar Chairez to win.”
Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
MMA JOEY Analyst called 18 of 27 MMA JOEY: picks Chairez — Sub · R1
Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 1.
“I think he subs Elliott, first-round sub.”
Track record: winner called in 18 of 27 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 77 of 112 DFS By The Numbers: picks Chairez — Sub · R2
Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 2.
“I think Chairez wins. I'll take him by second-round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks, 30 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 58 of 92 HopperoMMA: picks Chairez — to win
Picks Edgar Chairez to win.
“I'm going to go Edgar Chairez.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks, 22 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk on the fence We Want Picks: on the fence — made no pick
The We Want Picks hosts split the desk call: Angelo picked Tim Elliott, while Jacob picked Edgar Chairez.
Odds
What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.
Sportsbook consensus · Who wins
Favoured: Chairez
Steady since open
All 6 books consensus 34%
- BetOnline.ag34%0
- BetRivers35%+1
- BetUS35%+1
- Bovada34%0
- DraftKings34%0
- FanDuel34%0
6 books within 1 point
Vig-stripped win probability for Elliott at each book — the chance implied once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. The consensus is the median across books. The small bar under each book is its gap from the consensus, on a fixed ±5-point scale; a hatched bar is off that scale.
Fan Picks
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