Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

David Martinez defeats Dan Ige by unanimous decision

Win David Martinez 15-1-0
Loss Dan Ige 19-12-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Martinez vs Ige — Bantamweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Martinez vs Ige
Martinez Ige
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.50 3.51
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 69% 56%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.65 3.56
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 100% 55%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 67% 63%
14-1-0
Record
19-11-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Mexico
Nationality
United States
28
Age
35
5′5″165 cm
Height — Ige leads
5′7″170 cm
67″171 cm
Reach — Ige leads
71″180 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
67%
Finish rateFinish % — Martinez leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
63%
10
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Martinez leads
7
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Ige leads
5
4.50
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Martinez leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.51
2.65
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Martinez leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.56
69%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Martinez leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
56%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Martinez leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
12:56
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:34
Bantamweight
Weight classWeight
Featherweight (moving down)

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 19:46 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by Decision.

“We're going to go with Martinez to win that by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 23:18 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Martinez decisioning Dan Ige.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists David Martinez as its pick over Dan Ige.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 8:46 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by decision.

“his highlight reel because he's a made puss. So, give me David Martinez by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 3:08 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by decision; the caption renders Dan Ige as Dan Ege.

“Martinez to outpoint Dan Ege on route to a decision victory.”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 22:33 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by Decision.

“I can see David Martinez winning a 30-27 decision.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 20:36 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by decision.

“I'm going David Martinez to win this fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 105:15 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez to win.

“I think David Martinez wins here. I think speed, youth, athleticism, all that is just very clearly on his side. So, David Martinez is the pick.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 20:01 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by decision.

“I'm going to go David Martinez, 30-27 decision win.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 17:46 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by decision.

“I'm going to go with David Martinez to win this one by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 39:42 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez to win.

“Martinez gets the job done.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 14:22 Kunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · KO/TKO

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by knockout.

“Give me David Martinez by knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 22:03 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: David Martinez · Dec

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

Picks David Martinez by Decision.

“David Martinez is most likely a unanimous decision.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dan Ige

Fight result: David Martinez · Decision

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Dan Ige.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Kunath Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

13 of 14 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Martinez · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT put 75% on Martinez.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
75% Martinez
25% Ige
PickMartinez · DecisionActualMartinez · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
68% Martinez
32% Ige
PickMartinez · DecisionActualMartinez · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
74% Martinez
26% Ige
PickMartinez · DecisionActualMartinez · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Martinez

    Most likely: Martinez by decision, about 44 in 100

    Win chance: Martinez 75%, Ige 25%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Martinez

    Most likely: Martinez by decision, about 35 in 100

    Win chance: Martinez 68%, Ige 32%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Martinez

    Most likely: Martinez by decision, about 52 in 100

    Win chance: Martinez 74%, Ige 26%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Martinez.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Ige: 25%.

  • Claude

    Martinez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Ige: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Ige: 26%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    Martinez by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Martinez by decision (44%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Ige by decision (15%)

  • Claude

    1. Martinez by decision (35%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Ige by KO/TKO (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Martinez by decision (52%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (19%); 3. Ige by decision (14%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Martinez's 75% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 68% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 74% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 41%. Decision: 59%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

How does Martinez win?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez wins 75%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

  • Claude

    Martinez wins 68%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 35%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez wins 74%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 52%.

How does Ige win?

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 12%.

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Ige's most likely upset: Ige by decision (15%).

  • Gemini

    Ige's most likely upset: Ige by decision (14%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Martinez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • All models

    Result: Martinez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    52% (about 52 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 59%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 18%, decision 47%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 5%, decision 66%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31%, against 10% for Ige.

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33%, against 20% for Ige.

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22%, against 12% for Ige.

Can Martinez get the finish? Can Ige?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%). Ige: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%). Ige: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%). Ige: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Martinez is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Ige is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 13%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: 44%. Ige by decision: 15%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: 52%. Ige by decision: 14%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

  • Claude

    47%.

  • Gemini

    66%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 25%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 26%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 79%, Ige 21%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Martinez by decision, 35% here against 48% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Martinez by decision, 52% here against 40% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (75%).

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (68%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (74%).

Which model is most confident on Martinez, and which on Ige?

  • All models

    On Martinez: ChatGPT (75%). On Ige: Claude (32%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Martinez by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 52% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • All models

    The MMA Guru (Martinez by decision), TheWeasle (Martinez by decision), Half The Battle (Martinez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Martinez by decision), MMA JOEY (Martinez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Martinez by decision), HopperMMA (Martinez by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Martinez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Martinez by decision) and FightIQ (Martinez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Martinez, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 52%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Martinez

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Martinez by decision, about 44 in 100

Win chance: Martinez 75%, Ige 25%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Martinez by decision44%
  2. Martinez by KO/TKO30%
  3. Ige by decision15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Martinez 30%, Ige 8%.
  2. Submission: Martinez 1%, Ige 2%.
  3. Decision: Martinez 44%, Ige 15%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Ige: 25%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Martinez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Ige: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Ige: 26%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Martinez by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Martinez by decision (44%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Ige by decision (15%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Martinez by decision (35%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Ige by KO/TKO (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Martinez by decision (52%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (19%); 3. Ige by decision (14%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Martinez's 75% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 68% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 74% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 41%. Decision: 59%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

How does Martinez win?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez wins 75%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Martinez wins 68%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 35%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez wins 74%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 52%.

How does Ige win?

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 12%.

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Ige's most likely upset: Ige by decision (15%).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Ige's most likely upset: Ige by decision (14%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Martinez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Martinez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    52% (about 52 in 100).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 59%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 18%, decision 47%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 5%, decision 66%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31%, against 10% for Ige.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33%, against 20% for Ige.

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22%, against 12% for Ige.

Can Martinez get the finish? Can Ige?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%). Ige: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%). Ige: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%). Ige: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Martinez is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Ige is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 13%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: 44%. Ige by decision: 15%.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: 52%. Ige by decision: 14%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    47%.

  • Gemini

    66%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 25%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 26%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 79%, Ige 21%.

Compared with others 4 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (75%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (68%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (74%).

Which model is most confident on Martinez, and which on Ige?

  • ChatGPT

    On Martinez: ChatGPT (75%). On Ige: Claude (32%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 52% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    The MMA Guru (Martinez by decision), TheWeasle (Martinez by decision), Half The Battle (Martinez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Martinez by decision), MMA JOEY (Martinez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Martinez by decision), HopperMMA (Martinez by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Martinez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Martinez by decision) and FightIQ (Martinez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Martinez, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 52%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Martinez

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Martinez by decision, about 35 in 100

Win chance: Martinez 68%, Ige 32%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Martinez by decision35%
  2. Martinez by KO/TKO20%
  3. Ige by KO/TKO15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Martinez 20%, Ige 15%.
  2. Submission: Martinez 13%, Ige 5%.
  3. Decision: Martinez 35%, Ige 12%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Martinez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Ige: 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Ige: 25%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Ige: 26%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Martinez by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Martinez by decision (35%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Ige by KO/TKO (15%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Martinez by decision (44%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Ige by decision (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Martinez by decision (52%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (19%); 3. Ige by decision (14%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 68% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Martinez's 75% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 74% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 41%. Decision: 59%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

How does Martinez win?

  • Claude

    Martinez wins 68%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez wins 75%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez wins 74%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 52%.

How does Ige win?

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 12%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Martinez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Martinez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    35% (about 35 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Gemini

    52% (about 52 in 100).

More questions (19)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 18%, decision 47%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 59%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 5%, decision 66%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33%, against 20% for Ige.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31%, against 10% for Ige.

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22%, against 12% for Ige.

Can Martinez get the finish? Can Ige?

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%). Ige: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%). Ige: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%). Ige: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Martinez is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Ige is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 13%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 1%.

  • Gemini

    Martinez is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    47%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

  • Gemini

    66%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 26%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 25%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 79%, Ige 21%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Martinez by decision, 35% here against 48% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Martinez by decision, 52% here against 40% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (68%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (75%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (74%).

Which model is most confident on Martinez, and which on Ige?

  • Claude

    On Martinez: ChatGPT (75%). On Ige: Claude (32%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Martinez by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 52% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    The MMA Guru (Martinez by decision), TheWeasle (Martinez by decision), Half The Battle (Martinez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Martinez by decision), MMA JOEY (Martinez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Martinez by decision), HopperMMA (Martinez by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Martinez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Martinez by decision) and FightIQ (Martinez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Martinez, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 52%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Martinez

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Martinez by decision, about 52 in 100

Win chance: Martinez 74%, Ige 26%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Martinez by decision52%
  2. Martinez by KO/TKO19%
  3. Ige by decision14%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Martinez 19%, Ige 10%.
  2. Submission: Martinez 3%, Ige 2%.
  3. Decision: Martinez 52%, Ige 14%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Ige: 26%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 75% (about 75 in 100 fights). Ige: 25%.

  • Claude

    Martinez: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Ige: 32%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    Martinez by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Martinez by decision (52%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (19%); 3. Ige by decision (14%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Martinez by decision (44%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Ige by decision (15%)

  • Claude

    1. Martinez by decision (35%); 2. Martinez by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Ige by KO/TKO (15%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 74% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    8 of 10, based on Martinez's 75% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Martinez's 68% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 41%. Decision: 59%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

How does Martinez win?

  • Gemini

    Martinez wins 74%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 52%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez wins 75%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

  • Claude

    Martinez wins 68%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 35%.

How does Ige win?

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 12%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Ige's most likely upset: Ige by decision (14%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Ige's most likely upset: Ige by decision (15%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Martinez.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Martinez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    52% (about 52 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    35% (about 35 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 5%, decision 66%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 38%, submission 3%, decision 59%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 18%, decision 47%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22%, against 12% for Ige.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31%, against 10% for Ige.

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33%, against 20% for Ige.

Can Martinez get the finish? Can Ige?

  • Gemini

    Martinez: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%). Ige: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez: 31% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 1%). Ige: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).

  • Claude

    Martinez: 33% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%). Ige: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Martinez is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Ige is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Martinez is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Ige is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 13%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 75% vs 25%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: 52%. Ige by decision: 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Martinez by decision: 44%. Ige by decision: 15%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Ige wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Ige wins 25% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Ige wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    66%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

  • Claude

    47%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 79%, Ige 21%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 25%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Martinez 75%, Ige 26%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Martinez by decision, 52% here against 40% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Martinez by decision, 35% here against 48% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (74%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (75%).

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 13 back Martinez and 1 backs Ige. This model picks Martinez (68%).

Which model is most confident on Martinez, and which on Ige?

  • Gemini

    On Martinez: ChatGPT (75%). On Ige: Claude (32%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Martinez by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 52% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    The MMA Guru (Martinez by decision), TheWeasle (Martinez by decision), Half The Battle (Martinez by decision), Bedtime MMA (Martinez by decision), MMA JOEY (Martinez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Martinez by decision), HopperMMA (Martinez by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Martinez by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Martinez by decision) and FightIQ (Martinez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Martinez, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 52%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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