42%
Moreno
58%
Morales
PickMorales · Submission · R2ActualMoreno · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedBrandon Moreno defeats Joseph Morales by split decision
Split decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Moreno vs Morales — Flyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(5) 42%
58% (7)
AI Predictions
50%
50%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
Fight details
The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.
Records & career stats
- 23-10-2
- Record
- 14-2-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Mexico
- Nationality
- United States
- 32
- Age
- 32
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 70%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 16:57
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:05
- Team Moreno
- Team
- Team Alpha Male
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(5) 42%
WMoreno
58% (7)
MoralesL
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Brandon Moreno by Decision.
“I do think Moreno is going to win this by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidence
Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.
“Moreno out-striking Morales, winning this fight on the score cards.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.
“I'm going to go Moreno here by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
HopperMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.
“I'm going to go Moreno by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Brandon Moreno
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Brandon Moreno.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
TheWeasle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Joseph Morales by Decision.
“The pressure from Morales is going to be what ultimately wins this by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Joseph Morales as its pick over Brandon Moreno.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidence
Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Joseph Morales by Decision.
“I just think Morales is going to hurt him more and sting him and it only takes one shot on those eyebrows for Brandon Moreno and boom, he's bleeding. It's going to be a flyweight decision, three rounds, probably 29-28.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidence
Picked: Joseph Morales · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Joseph Morales by submission in round 2.
“Joseph Morales gets it done. Second-round rear-naked choke.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 56:24
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
Current pick evidence
Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Joseph Morales by decision.
“Going to pick Morales to win here via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Andrew Richardson
Current pick evidence
Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Joseph Morales by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Half The Battle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Joseph Morales
Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision
Picks Joseph Morales to win.
“I'm going to pick Joseph Morales to come out here and defeat Brandon Moreno.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; FightIQ Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.
5 of 12 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Moreno · Decision · R3
Closest probability Gemini put 60% on Moreno.
47%
Moreno
53%
Morales
PickMorales · Submission · R2ActualMoreno · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
60%
Moreno
40%
Morales
PickMoreno · DecisionActualMoreno · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Morales
Most likely: Moreno by decision, about 31 in 100
Win chance: Moreno 42%, Morales 58%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Morales
Most likely: Moreno by decision, about 26 in 100
Win chance: Moreno 47%, Morales 53%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Moreno
Most likely: Moreno by decision, about 38 in 100
Win chance: Moreno 60%, Morales 40%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
1 of 3 models pick Moreno; 2 of 3 models pick Morales.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Morales: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Moreno: 42%.
Claude
Morales: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Moreno: 47%.
Gemini
Moreno: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Morales: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Moreno by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).
Claude
Moreno by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Gemini
Moreno by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Moreno by decision (31%); 2. Morales by submission (26%); 3. Morales by decision (25%)
Claude
1. Moreno by decision (26%); 2. Morales by submission (24%); 3. Morales by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Moreno by decision (38%); 2. Morales by decision (18%); 3. Morales by submission (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Morales's 58% win chance.
Claude
5 of 10, based on Morales's 53% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Moreno's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
How does Moreno win?
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%, decision 31%.
Claude
Moreno wins 47%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Moreno wins 60%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
How does Morales win?
ChatGPT
Morales wins 58%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%, decision 25%.
Claude
Morales wins 53%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Morales wins 40%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 18%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (31%).
Claude
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (26%).
Gemini
Morales's most likely upset: Morales by decision (18%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Morales, Claude: Morales, Gemini: Moreno).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
All models
Result: Moreno by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
31% (about 31 in 100).
Claude
26% (about 26 in 100).
Gemini
38% (about 38 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 13%, submission 31%, decision 56%.
Claude
KO/TKO 18%, submission 37%, decision 45%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 20%, submission 24%, decision 56%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Morales: 33%, against 11% for Moreno.
Claude
Morales: 34%, against 21% for Moreno.
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 22% of the time.
Can Moreno get the finish? Can Morales?
ChatGPT
Moreno: 11% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%). Morales: 33% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%).
Claude
Moreno: 21% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%). Morales: 34% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%).
Gemini
Moreno: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Morales: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Moreno is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 26%. Morales is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
Moreno is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 24%. Morales is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 13%.
Gemini
Moreno is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Morales is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Moreno by decision: 38%. Morales by decision: 18%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Moreno wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Gemini
Morales wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
56%.
Claude
45%.
Gemini
56%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 55%, Morales 45%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 58%, Morales 42%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 68%, Morales 32%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Moreno by decision, 26% here against 35% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (58%).
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (53%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Moreno (60%).
Which model is most confident on Moreno, and which on Morales?
All models
On Moreno: Gemini (60%). On Morales: ChatGPT (58%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Moreno by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 38% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Bedtime MMA (Moreno by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Moreno by decision), HopperMMA (Moreno by decision) and MMA Lock of the Night (Moreno by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Moreno, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
All models
Gemini, which gave the actual result 38%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Morales
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Moreno by decision, about 31 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Moreno 42%, Morales 58%.
Most likely outcomes
- Moreno by decision31%
- Morales by submission26%
- Morales by decision25%
- KO/TKO: Moreno 6%, Morales 7%.
- Submission: Moreno 5%, Morales 26%.
- Decision: Moreno 31%, Morales 25%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Morales: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Moreno: 42%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Morales: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Moreno: 47%.
Gemini
Moreno: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Morales: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Moreno by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Moreno by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Gemini
Moreno by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Moreno by decision (31%); 2. Morales by submission (26%); 3. Morales by decision (25%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Moreno by decision (26%); 2. Morales by submission (24%); 3. Morales by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Moreno by decision (38%); 2. Morales by decision (18%); 3. Morales by submission (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Morales's 58% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
5 of 10, based on Morales's 53% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Moreno's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
How does Moreno win?
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%, decision 31%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Moreno wins 47%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Moreno wins 60%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
How does Morales win?
ChatGPT
Morales wins 58%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%, decision 25%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Morales wins 53%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Morales wins 40%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 18%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (31%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (26%).
Gemini
Morales's most likely upset: Morales by decision (18%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Morales, Claude: Morales, Gemini: Moreno).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Moreno by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
31% (about 31 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
26% (about 26 in 100).
Gemini
38% (about 38 in 100).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 13%, submission 31%, decision 56%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 18%, submission 37%, decision 45%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 20%, submission 24%, decision 56%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Morales: 33%, against 11% for Moreno.
Other models' answers
Claude
Morales: 34%, against 21% for Moreno.
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 22% of the time.
Can Moreno get the finish? Can Morales?
ChatGPT
Moreno: 11% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%). Morales: 33% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Moreno: 21% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%). Morales: 34% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%).
Gemini
Moreno: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Morales: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Moreno is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 26%. Morales is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Moreno is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 24%. Morales is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 13%.
Gemini
Moreno is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Morales is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Moreno wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Gemini
Morales wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
56%.
Other models' answers
Claude
45%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 55%, Morales 45%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 58%, Morales 42%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 68%, Morales 32%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (58%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (53%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Moreno (60%).
Which model is most confident on Moreno, and which on Morales?
ChatGPT
On Moreno: Gemini (60%). On Morales: ChatGPT (58%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Moreno by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 38% (Gemini).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
ChatGPT
Gemini, which gave the actual result 38%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Morales
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Moreno by decision, about 26 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Moreno 47%, Morales 53%.
Most likely outcomes
- Moreno by decision26%
- Morales by submission24%
- Morales by decision19%
- KO/TKO: Moreno 8%, Morales 10%.
- Submission: Moreno 13%, Morales 24%.
- Decision: Moreno 26%, Morales 19%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Morales: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Moreno: 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Morales: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Moreno: 42%.
Gemini
Moreno: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Morales: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Moreno by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).
Gemini
Moreno by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Moreno by decision (26%); 2. Morales by submission (24%); 3. Morales by decision (19%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Moreno by decision (31%); 2. Morales by submission (26%); 3. Morales by decision (25%)
Gemini
1. Moreno by decision (38%); 2. Morales by decision (18%); 3. Morales by submission (14%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
5 of 10, based on Morales's 53% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Morales's 58% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Moreno's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
How does Moreno win?
Claude
Moreno wins 47%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%, decision 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%, decision 31%.
Gemini
Moreno wins 60%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
How does Morales win?
Claude
Morales wins 53%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Morales wins 58%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Morales wins 40%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 18%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (26%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (31%).
Gemini
Morales's most likely upset: Morales by decision (18%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Morales, Claude: Morales, Gemini: Moreno).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Moreno by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Claude
26% (about 26 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
31% (about 31 in 100).
Gemini
38% (about 38 in 100).
More questions (18)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 18%, submission 37%, decision 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 13%, submission 31%, decision 56%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 20%, submission 24%, decision 56%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Morales: 34%, against 21% for Moreno.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Morales: 33%, against 11% for Moreno.
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 22% of the time.
Can Moreno get the finish? Can Morales?
Claude
Moreno: 21% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%). Morales: 34% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno: 11% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%). Morales: 33% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%).
Gemini
Moreno: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Morales: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Moreno is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 24%. Morales is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 13%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 26%. Morales is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Moreno is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Morales is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Moreno wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Morales wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
56%.
Gemini
56%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 58%, Morales 42%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 55%, Morales 45%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 68%, Morales 32%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Moreno by decision, 26% here against 35% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (53%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (58%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Moreno (60%).
Which model is most confident on Moreno, and which on Morales?
Claude
On Moreno: Gemini (60%). On Morales: ChatGPT (58%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Moreno by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 38% (Gemini).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Claude
Gemini, which gave the actual result 38%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Moreno
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Moreno by decision, about 38 in 100
Win chance: Moreno 60%, Morales 40%.
Most likely outcomes
- Moreno by decision38%
- Morales by decision18%
- Morales by submission14%
- KO/TKO: Moreno 12%, Morales 8%.
- Submission: Moreno 10%, Morales 14%.
- Decision: Moreno 38%, Morales 18%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Moreno: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Morales: 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Morales: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Moreno: 42%.
Claude
Morales: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Moreno: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Moreno by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).
Claude
Moreno by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Moreno by decision (38%); 2. Morales by decision (18%); 3. Morales by submission (14%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Moreno by decision (31%); 2. Morales by submission (26%); 3. Morales by decision (25%)
Claude
1. Moreno by decision (26%); 2. Morales by submission (24%); 3. Morales by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Moreno's 60% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Morales's 58% win chance.
Claude
5 of 10, based on Morales's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 44%. Decision: 56%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
How does Moreno win?
Gemini
Moreno wins 60%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%, decision 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%, decision 31%.
Claude
Moreno wins 47%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%, decision 26%.
How does Morales win?
Gemini
Morales wins 40%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 18%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Morales wins 58%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%, decision 25%.
Claude
Morales wins 53%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%, decision 19%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Morales's most likely upset: Morales by decision (18%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (31%).
Claude
Moreno's most likely upset: Moreno by decision (26%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Morales, Claude: Morales, Gemini: Moreno).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Moreno by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Gemini
38% (about 38 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
31% (about 31 in 100).
Claude
26% (about 26 in 100).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 20%, submission 24%, decision 56%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 13%, submission 31%, decision 56%.
Claude
KO/TKO 18%, submission 37%, decision 45%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 22% of the time.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Morales: 33%, against 11% for Moreno.
Claude
Morales: 34%, against 21% for Moreno.
Can Moreno get the finish? Can Morales?
Gemini
Moreno: 22% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 10%). Morales: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno: 11% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 5%). Morales: 33% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 26%).
Claude
Moreno: 21% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 13%). Morales: 34% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 24%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Moreno is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Morales is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 26%. Morales is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
Moreno is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 24%. Morales is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 13%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Moreno by decision: 38%. Morales by decision: 18%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Morales wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Moreno wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Moreno wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
56%.
Other models' answers
Claude
45%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 68%, Morales 32%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 55%, Morales 45%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Moreno 58%, Morales 42%.
Compared with others 4 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Moreno (60%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (58%).
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 5 back Moreno and 7 back Morales. This model picks Morales (53%).
Which model is most confident on Moreno, and which on Morales?
Gemini
On Moreno: Gemini (60%). On Morales: ChatGPT (58%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Moreno by decision: from 26% (Claude) to 38% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Bedtime MMA (Moreno by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Moreno by decision), HopperMMA (Moreno by decision) and MMA Lock of the Night (Moreno by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Moreno, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Gemini
Gemini, which gave the actual result 38%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
No current consensus line is saved on this page.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.