McMillen vs Rahiki — Featherweight · Silva vs. Delgado
Red corner
- 11-0-0
- Record
- 9-0-0
- 90%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
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Blue corner
Expectations
- 58%
- Market — red corner favoredMarket expectations6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice.
- 42%
- 57%
- AI prediction — red corner favoredAI predictionAverage of eligible published AI model predictions. This is an editorial signal, not betting advice.
- 43%
6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 13:11. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice. Average of eligible published AI model predictions.
Full Tale of the Tape · +10 more stats · radar
- 11-0-0
- Record
- 9-0-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 58%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 09:29
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- United States
- Nationality
- —
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for McMillen
UFC lists Tommy McMillen unbeaten at 11-0 and describes him as an undefeated featherweight prospect. His UFC feature credits him with two UFC knockout wins and two Performance Bonuses entering this card.
Case for Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki is also unbeaten, with a 9-0 UFC profile that lists eight knockout wins. UFC's fight preview identifies both Rahiki and McMillen as DWCS season-nine graduates, framing this as a meeting of emerging featherweights.
What to Watch
- Whether McMillen can extend the UFC finishing run highlighted by the promotion.
- How Rahiki's knockout-heavy record translates against another unbeaten prospect.
- Which DWCS season-nine graduate controls the matchup's momentum.
- The value of an unbeaten main-card result for either featherweight.
AI Predictions
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-7
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
3 of 3 models favour McMillen. The combined forecast puts 65% on KO/TKO as the likeliest finish.
Where the models differ
The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTMcMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2 · medium confidence
- ClaudeMcMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2 · low confidence
- GeminiMcMillen · Decision · low confidence
Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick McMillen.
Method outlook KO/TKO 65% · Submission 9% · Decision 26%.
Model spread 55%–58% McMillen · 42%–45% Rahiki.
Vs the market Market 58% McMillen · 42% Rahiki · as of 2026-09-11. AI mean 57% McMillen · 43% Rahiki.
Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
ChatGPT
gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Tommy McMillen
Forecast
McMillen is the pick at 58%, with KO/TKO · Round 2 as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
Claude
claude-sonnet-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Tommy McMillen
Forecast
McMillen is the pick at 55%, with KO/TKO · Round 2 as the forecast result.
11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
Gemini
provider-default-unreported · via AGY CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Tommy McMillen
Forecast
McMillen is the pick at 57%, with Decision as the forecast result.
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
Analyst picks: The MMA Guru picks McMillen; TheWeasle picks McMillen; Half The Battle picks McMillen; Bedtime MMA picks McMillen; MMA JOEY picks McMillen; DFS By The Numbers picks McMillen; HopperoMMA picks Rahiki; MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Rahiki.
5 of 8 see a finish — 5 by KO/TKO, 2 by decision.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
The MMA Guru Analyst called 66 of 99 The MMA Guru: picks McMillen — KO/TKO
Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO.
“I'm going to go McMillen. TKO second or third round is what I think is going to happen here.”
Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 45 of 61 TheWeasle: picks McMillen — KO/TKO · R2
Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO in round 2.
“I'm going with Tommy McMillen TKO'ing Marwan Rahiki in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 40 of 60 Half The Battle: picks McMillen — to win
Picks Tommy McMillen to win.
“Give me Tommy McMillen to come out here and hand Marwan Rahiki his first loss.”
Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 83 of 126 Bedtime MMA: picks McMillen — Decision
Picks Tommy McMillen by Decision.
“I think Tommy McMillen's going to win this by 29-28 decision.”
Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks, 37 a perfect call.
MMA JOEY Analyst called 18 of 27 MMA JOEY: picks McMillen — Decision
Picks Tommy McMillen by decision.
“Tommy McMillen gets it done. Decision win over Marwan Rahiki.”
Track record: winner called in 18 of 27 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 77 of 112 DFS By The Numbers: picks McMillen — KO/TKO · R2
Picks Tommy McMillen by knockout in round 2.
“Give me Tommy McMillen by second-round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks, 30 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 58 of 92 HopperoMMA: picks Rahiki — KO/TKO · R1
Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 1.
“I'm going to go with Marwan Rahiki by KO in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks, 22 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 22 of 38 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: picks Rahiki — KO/TKO · R2
Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 2.
“I'm going to go with round two KO/TKO for Marwan Rahiki.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks, 12 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk on the fence We Want Picks: on the fence — made no pick
Angelo picks Tommy McMillen; Jacob picks Marwan Rahiki. The hosts disagree, so no channel-level winner is recorded.
Odds
What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.
Sportsbook consensus · Who wins
Favoured: McMillen
All 6 books consensus 58%
- BetOnline.ag58%0
- BetRivers58%0
- BetUS58%0
- Bovada59%+1
- DraftKings56%−2
- FanDuel60%+2
6 books within 4 points
Vig-stripped win probability for McMillen at each book — the chance implied once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. The consensus is the median across books. The small bar under each book is its gap from the consensus, on a fixed ±5-point scale; a hatched bar is off that scale.
Fan Picks
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