Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Tommy McMillen defeats Marwan Rahiki by unanimous decision

Win Tommy McMillen 12-0-0
Loss Marwan Rahiki 9-1-0
Watch the fight
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

McMillen vs Rahiki — Featherweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
McMillen vs Rahiki
McMillen Rahiki
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 11.13 6.69
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 58% 58%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 5.06 5.91
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 79% 38%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 90% 100%
11-0-0
Record
9-0-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Morocco
28
Age
24
6′0″183 cm
Height — McMillen leads
5′8″173 cm
74″188 cm
Reach — McMillen leads
72″183 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
90%
Finish rateFinish % — Rahiki leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
100%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Rahiki leads
8
5
Wins by submissionSub wins — McMillen leads
1
11.13
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — McMillen leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.69
5.06
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — McMillen leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.91
58%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
79%
Takedown defenseTD def. — McMillen leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
38%
11:52
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
08:45
Red Hawk Academy
Team
Lion’s Den Academy

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 28:36 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Dec

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by Decision.

“I think Tommy McMillen's going to win this by 29-28 decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 29:16 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO in round 2.

“I'm going with Tommy McMillen TKO'ing Marwan Rahiki in the second round.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 4:03 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO; the captions render the matchup surnames as McMillan and Rikiki/Rakhiki.

“lead to another McMillan TKO win.”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 37:42 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO.

“I'm going to go McMillen. TKO second or third round is what I think is going to happen here.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 27:53 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by knockout in round 2.

“Give me Tommy McMillen by second-round knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 29:57 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Dec

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by decision.

“Tommy McMillen gets it done. Decision win over Marwan Rahiki.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 8:42 Kunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Sub

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by submission.

“I think Tommy Mac Millan wins by submission.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 15:25 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen to win.

“Give me Tommy McMillen to come out here and hand Marwan Rahiki his first loss.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki · Dec

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists Marwan Rahiki as its pick over Tommy McMillen.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 15:01 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Marwan Rahiki by KO in the first round.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 52:29 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 2.

“I'm going to go with round two KO/TKO for Marwan Rahiki.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Marwan Rahiki.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Kunath Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

8 of 12 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual McMillen · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT put 58% on McMillen.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
58% McMillen
42% Rahiki
PickMcMillen · KO/TKO · R2ActualMcMillen · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
55% McMillen
45% Rahiki
PickMcMillen · KO/TKO · R2ActualMcMillen · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
57% McMillen
43% Rahiki
PickMcMillen · DecisionActualMcMillen · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick McMillen

    Most likely: a tie between McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO, about 34 in 100 each

    Win chance: McMillen 58%, Rahiki 42%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick McMillen

    Most likely: McMillen by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100

    Win chance: McMillen 55%, Rahiki 45%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick McMillen

    Most likely: McMillen by decision, about 28 in 100

    Win chance: McMillen 57%, Rahiki 43%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

3 of 3 models pick McMillen.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 42%.

  • Claude

    McMillen: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 45%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 43%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    A tie: McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO, 34% each (about 34 in 100 each).

  • Claude

    McMillen by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

  • Gemini

    McMillen by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (34%); 1. Rahiki by KO/TKO (34%); 3. McMillen by decision (16%)

  • Claude

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (35%); 3. McMillen by decision (12%)

  • Gemini

    1. McMillen by decision (28%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. McMillen by KO/TKO (24%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 58% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 55% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 57% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 79%. Decision: 21%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 81%. Decision: 19%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

How does McMillen win?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen wins 58%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%, decision 16%.

  • Claude

    McMillen wins 55%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen wins 57%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

How does Rahiki win?

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%, decision 5%.

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%, decision 7%.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%, decision 11%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick McMillen.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO (34% each).

  • Claude

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McMillen by KO/TKO (40%).

  • Gemini

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    16% (about 16 in 100).

  • Claude

    12% (about 12 in 100).

  • Gemini

    28% (about 28 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 68%, submission 11%, decision 21%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 75%, submission 6%, decision 19%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 10%, decision 39%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42%, against 37% for Rahiki.

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43%, against 38% for Rahiki.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki: 32%, against 29% for McMillen.

Can McMillen get the finish? Can Rahiki?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%). Rahiki: 37% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%).

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Rahiki: 38% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%). Rahiki: 32% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 8%.

  • Claude

    McMillen is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 5%. Rahiki is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    21%.

  • Claude

    19%.

  • Gemini

    39%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 76%, Rahiki 24%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 63%, Rahiki 37%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 72%, Rahiki 28%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: McMillen by decision, 28% here against 14% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (58%).

  • Claude

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (55%).

  • Gemini

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (57%).

Which model is most confident on McMillen, and which on Rahiki?

  • All models

    On McMillen: ChatGPT (58%). On Rahiki: Claude (45%).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    Bedtime MMA (McMillen by decision) and MMA JOEY (McMillen by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McMillen, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 28%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

McMillen

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: a tie between McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO, about 34 in 100 each

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: McMillen 58%, Rahiki 42%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. McMillen by KO/TKO, tied for number 134%
  2. Rahiki by KO/TKO, tied for number 134%
  3. McMillen by decision16%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: McMillen 34%, Rahiki 34%.
  2. Submission: McMillen 8%, Rahiki 3%.
  3. Decision: McMillen 16%, Rahiki 5%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    McMillen: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 45%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 43%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    A tie: McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO, 34% each (about 34 in 100 each).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    McMillen by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

  • Gemini

    McMillen by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (34%); 1. Rahiki by KO/TKO (34%); 3. McMillen by decision (16%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (35%); 3. McMillen by decision (12%)

  • Gemini

    1. McMillen by decision (28%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. McMillen by KO/TKO (24%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 58% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 55% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 57% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 79%. Decision: 21%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 81%. Decision: 19%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

How does McMillen win?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen wins 58%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%, decision 16%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    McMillen wins 55%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen wins 57%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

How does Rahiki win?

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%, decision 5%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%, decision 7%.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%, decision 11%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick McMillen.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO (34% each).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McMillen by KO/TKO (40%).

  • Gemini

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    16% (about 16 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    12% (about 12 in 100).

  • Gemini

    28% (about 28 in 100).

More questions (16)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 68%, submission 11%, decision 21%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 75%, submission 6%, decision 19%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 10%, decision 39%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42%, against 37% for Rahiki.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43%, against 38% for Rahiki.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki: 32%, against 29% for McMillen.

Can McMillen get the finish? Can Rahiki?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%). Rahiki: 37% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Rahiki: 38% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%). Rahiki: 32% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 8%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    McMillen is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 5%. Rahiki is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    21%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    19%.

  • Gemini

    39%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 76%, Rahiki 24%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 63%, Rahiki 37%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 72%, Rahiki 28%.

Compared with others 2 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (58%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (55%).

  • Gemini

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (57%).

Which model is most confident on McMillen, and which on Rahiki?

  • ChatGPT

    On McMillen: ChatGPT (58%). On Rahiki: Claude (45%).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 28%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

McMillen

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: McMillen by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: McMillen 55%, Rahiki 45%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. McMillen by KO/TKO40%
  2. Rahiki by KO/TKO35%
  3. McMillen by decision12%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: McMillen 40%, Rahiki 35%.
  2. Submission: McMillen 3%, Rahiki 3%.
  3. Decision: McMillen 12%, Rahiki 7%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    McMillen: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 45%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 42%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 43%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    McMillen by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A tie: McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO, 34% each (about 34 in 100 each).

  • Gemini

    McMillen by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (35%); 3. McMillen by decision (12%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (34%); 1. Rahiki by KO/TKO (34%); 3. McMillen by decision (16%)

  • Gemini

    1. McMillen by decision (28%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. McMillen by KO/TKO (24%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 55% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 58% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 57% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 81%. Decision: 19%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 79%. Decision: 21%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

How does McMillen win?

  • Claude

    McMillen wins 55%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen wins 58%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%, decision 16%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen wins 57%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

How does Rahiki win?

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%, decision 7%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%, decision 5%.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%, decision 11%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick McMillen.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McMillen by KO/TKO (40%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO (34% each).

  • Gemini

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    12% (about 12 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    16% (about 16 in 100).

  • Gemini

    28% (about 28 in 100).

More questions (16)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 75%, submission 6%, decision 19%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 68%, submission 11%, decision 21%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 10%, decision 39%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43%, against 38% for Rahiki.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42%, against 37% for Rahiki.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki: 32%, against 29% for McMillen.

Can McMillen get the finish? Can Rahiki?

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Rahiki: 38% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%). Rahiki: 37% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%). Rahiki: 32% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    McMillen is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 8%.

  • Gemini

    McMillen is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 5%. Rahiki is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    19%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    21%.

  • Gemini

    39%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 63%, Rahiki 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 76%, Rahiki 24%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 72%, Rahiki 28%.

Compared with others 2 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (55%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (58%).

  • Gemini

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (57%).

Which model is most confident on McMillen, and which on Rahiki?

  • Claude

    On McMillen: ChatGPT (58%). On Rahiki: Claude (45%).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 28%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

McMillen

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: McMillen by decision, about 28 in 100

Win chance: McMillen 57%, Rahiki 43%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. McMillen by decision28%
  2. Rahiki by KO/TKO27%
  3. McMillen by KO/TKO24%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: McMillen 24%, Rahiki 27%.
  2. Submission: McMillen 5%, Rahiki 5%.
  3. Decision: McMillen 28%, Rahiki 11%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 43%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 42%.

  • Claude

    McMillen: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Rahiki: 45%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    McMillen by decision: 28% (about 28 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A tie: McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO, 34% each (about 34 in 100 each).

  • Claude

    McMillen by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. McMillen by decision (28%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. McMillen by KO/TKO (24%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (34%); 1. Rahiki by KO/TKO (34%); 3. McMillen by decision (16%)

  • Claude

    1. McMillen by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Rahiki by KO/TKO (35%); 3. McMillen by decision (12%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 57% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 58% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on McMillen's 55% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 79%. Decision: 21%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 81%. Decision: 19%.

How does McMillen win?

  • Gemini

    McMillen wins 57%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen wins 58%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%, decision 16%.

  • Claude

    McMillen wins 55%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 12%.

How does Rahiki win?

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%, decision 11%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%, decision 5%.

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%, decision 7%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick McMillen.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were McMillen by KO/TKO and Rahiki by KO/TKO (34% each).

  • Claude

    Result: McMillen by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McMillen by KO/TKO (40%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    28% (about 28 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    16% (about 16 in 100).

  • Claude

    12% (about 12 in 100).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 51%, submission 10%, decision 39%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 68%, submission 11%, decision 21%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 75%, submission 6%, decision 19%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Rahiki: 32%, against 29% for McMillen.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42%, against 37% for Rahiki.

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43%, against 38% for Rahiki.

Can McMillen get the finish? Can Rahiki?

  • Gemini

    McMillen: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%). Rahiki: 32% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen: 42% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 8%). Rahiki: 37% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 3%).

  • Claude

    McMillen: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Rahiki: 38% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    McMillen is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 5%. Rahiki is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    McMillen is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 8%.

  • Claude

    McMillen is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 3%. Rahiki is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Rahiki wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Rahiki wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Rahiki wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    39%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    21%.

  • Claude

    19%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 72%, Rahiki 28%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 76%, Rahiki 24%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: McMillen 63%, Rahiki 37%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: McMillen by decision, 28% here against 14% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (57%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (58%).

  • Claude

    Of 12 analyst picks, 8 back McMillen and 4 back Rahiki. This model picks McMillen (55%).

Which model is most confident on McMillen, and which on Rahiki?

  • Gemini

    On McMillen: ChatGPT (58%). On Rahiki: Claude (45%).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    Bedtime MMA (McMillen by decision) and MMA JOEY (McMillen by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McMillen, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 28%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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