Fiorot vs Grasso — Women's Flyweight · Silva vs. Delgado

Scheduled · 12 Sep 2026 Silva vs. Delgado · Women's Flyweight · Main Card · 3 rounds · Glendale, Arizona
The Beast
Manon
Fiorot
Record Record: 13-2-0
Wins
13
Losses
2
Draws
0
7KO/TKO
0Sub
6Dec

Red corner

13-2-0
Record
17-5-1
36
Age
32
1.70 m
Height — Fiorot leads
1.65 m
165 cm
Reach — Grasso leads
168 cm
4.61
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / min — Fiorot leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.11
69%
Finish rateFinish % — Fiorot leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
41%
Alexa Grasso, head-and-shoulders portrait
Alexa
Grasso
Record Record: 17-5-1
Wins
17
Losses
5
Draws
1
5KO/TKO
2Sub
10Dec

Blue corner

Expectations

69%
Market — red corner favoredMarket expectations6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 14:23. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice.
31%
65%
AI prediction — red corner favoredAI predictionAverage of eligible published AI model predictions. This is an editorial signal, not betting advice.
35%

6-book vig-stripped consensus as of 2026-09-11 14:23. Percentages are an informational market signal, not betting advice. Average of eligible published AI model predictions.

Full Tale of the Tape · +10 more stats · radar
13-2-0
Record
17-5-1
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-2-1 last 5
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Fiorot leads
5
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Grasso leads
2
3.26
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Fiorot leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.71
—
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
62%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Fiorot leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
—
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
14:56
—
Nationality
Mexico

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

What to expect

Case for Fiorot

The current UFC event card lists Manon Fiorot second at women's flyweight. Her athlete page records a 74-second stoppage of Jasmine Jasudavicius in her most recent listed bout.

Case for Grasso

Alexa Grasso enters as the No. 3 contender and a former UFC women's flyweight champion. UFC also notes that this will be her third Noche UFC appearance, giving the booking added event history.

What to Watch

  • Whether Fiorot can carry the pace of her recent 74-second finish into another top contender fight.
  • How Grasso's championship experience shapes a matchup between current Nos. 2 and 3.
  • The adjustments each contender makes against an elite women's flyweight opponent.
  • Which fighter gains the clearer position in UFC's evolving flyweight picture.

AI Predictions

Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.

The Read

Latest snapshot · T-7

Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.

ChatGPT
68% 32%
Claude
63% 37%
Gemini
65% 35%

3 of 3 models favour Fiorot. The combined forecast puts 67% on Decision as the likeliest finish.

Where the models differ

The models agree on the winner, finish method, round call, and confidence. The full model calls are below.

  • ChatGPTFiorot · Decision · medium confidence
  • ClaudeFiorot · Decision · medium confidence
  • GeminiFiorot · Decision · medium confidence

Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Fiorot.

Method outlook KO/TKO 24% · Submission 9% · Decision 67%.

Model spread 63%–68% Fiorot · 32%–37% Grasso.

Vs the market Market 69% Fiorot · 31% Grasso · as of 2026-09-11. AI mean 65% Fiorot · 35% Grasso.

Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

ChatGPT

gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-09-05

Overall win probability

68% Fiorot
32% Grasso

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

13%
5%
18% · KO/TKO: Fiorot 13%, Grasso 5%
1%
5%
6% · Submission: Fiorot 1%, Grasso 5%
54%
22%
76% · Decision: Fiorot 54%, Grasso 22%

Pick

Manon Fiorot

Decisionmedium · ●●○

Forecast

Fiorot is the pick at 68%, with Decision as the forecast result.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

Claude

claude-sonnet-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-09-05

Overall win probability

63% Fiorot
37% Grasso

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

27%
10%
37% · KO/TKO: Fiorot 27%, Grasso 10%
3%
7%
10% · Submission: Fiorot 3%, Grasso 7%
33%
20%
53% · Decision: Fiorot 33%, Grasso 20%

Pick

Manon Fiorot

Decisionmedium · ●●○

Forecast

Fiorot is the pick at 63%, with Decision as the forecast result.

11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent

Gemini

provider-default-unreported · via AGY CLI · 2026-09-05

Overall win probability

65% Fiorot
35% Grasso

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

12%
4%
16% · KO/TKO: Fiorot 12%, Grasso 4%
1%
9%
10% · Submission: Fiorot 1%, Grasso 9%
52%
22%
74% · Decision: Fiorot 52%, Grasso 22%

Pick

Manon Fiorot

Decisionmedium · ●●○

Forecast

Fiorot is the pick at 65%, with Decision as the forecast result.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

Analyst picks: The MMA Guru picks Fiorot; TheWeasle picks Fiorot; Half The Battle picks Fiorot; Bedtime MMA picks Grasso; MMA JOEY picks Fiorot; DFS By The Numbers picks Fiorot; HopperoMMA picks Grasso; MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Fiorot.

All 8 see it go the distance.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Full analyst picks ↓
The MMA Guru Analyst called 66 of 99 The MMA Guru: picks Fiorot — Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“I can see her edging out a 29-28 decision here.”
Hear it — 29:49 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.

TheWeasle Analyst called 45 of 61 TheWeasle: picks Fiorot — Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot decisioning Alexa Grasso.”
Hear it — 27:31 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗ TheWeasle’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.

Half The Battle Analyst called 40 of 60 Half The Battle: picks Fiorot — Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“As a pure pick, I'll take Manon Fiorot to come out here and win this decision.”
Hear it — 17:36 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.

MMA JOEY Analyst called 18 of 27 MMA JOEY: picks Fiorot — Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I think Manon Fiorot gets it done. Probably decision.”
Hear it — 25:35 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗ MMA JOEY’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 18 of 27 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.

DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 77 of 112 DFS By The Numbers: picks Fiorot — Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot to win this fight by decision.”
Hear it — 25:36 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks, 30 a perfect call.

MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 22 of 38 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: picks Fiorot — to win

Picks Manon Fiorot to win.

“I'm switching my pick to Manon.”
Hear it — 45:38 MMAPREDICTIONGURU on YouTube ↗ MMAPREDICTIONGURU’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks, 12 a perfect call.

Bedtime MMA Analyst called 83 of 126 Bedtime MMA: picks Grasso — Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso by decision.”
Hear it — 27:36 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks, 37 a perfect call.

HopperoMMA Analyst called 58 of 92 HopperoMMA: picks Grasso — Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso to win this one by decision.”
Hear it — 24:03 HopperoMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperoMMA’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks, 22 a perfect call.

We Want Picks Betting desk on the fence We Want Picks: on the fence — made no pick

The We Want Picks hosts split the desk call: Angelo picked Manon Fiorot, while Jacob picked Alexa Grasso.

Hear it — 119:24 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record →

Odds

What the markets imply for this fight — percentages are a vig-stripped consensus across the sportsbooks, not a forecast or betting advice.

Sportsbook consensus · Who wins

69% Manon Fiorot Money moved toward Manon Fiorot since the market opened: ▲ 3 since open
31% Alexa Grasso

Favoured: Fiorot

All 6 books consensus 69%

  • BetOnline.ag70%+1
  • BetRivers68%−1
  • BetUS69%0
  • Bovada70%+1
  • DraftKings69%0
  • FanDuel68%−1

6 books within 2 points

Vig-stripped win probability for Fiorot at each book — the chance implied once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. The consensus is the median across books. The small bar under each book is its gap from the consensus, on a fixed ±5-point scale; a hatched bar is off that scale.

6 sportsbooks as of 11 Sep 14:23 UTC · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab)

Fighters

Manon Fiorot
13-2-0 · Women's Flyweight · The Beast
View profile →
Alexa Grasso
17-5-1 · Women's Flyweight
View profile →

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Independent fan-made fight preview. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Privacy · Terms.