Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Alexa Grasso defeats Manon Fiorot by unanimous decision

Loss Manon Fiorot 13-3-0
Win Alexa Grasso 18-5-1
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Fiorot vs Grasso — Women's Flyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Fiorot vs Grasso
Fiorot Grasso
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.61 4.19
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 50% 60%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.26 3.78
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 62% 55%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 69% 39%
13-2-0
Record
17-5-1
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-2-1 last 5
France
Nationality
Mexico
36
Age
32
5′7″170 cm
Height — Fiorot leads
5′5″165 cm
65″165 cm
Reach — Grasso leads
66″168 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
69%
Finish rateFinish % — Fiorot leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
39%
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Fiorot leads
5
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Grasso leads
2
4.61
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Fiorot leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.19
3.26
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Fiorot leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.78
50%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Grasso leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
62%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Fiorot leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
12:29
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
14:56

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

TheWeasle
Hear it — 27:31 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot decisioning Alexa Grasso.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists Manon Fiorot as its pick over Alexa Grasso.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 3:43 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 29:42 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“So, I'm going to go Manon Fiorot. Her movement, even like just things like her sidekick to the body on Grasso, I can see her edging out a 29-28 decision here.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 25:36 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot to win this fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 25:35 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I think Manon Fiorot gets it done. Probably decision.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 45:38 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot to win.

“I'm switching my pick to Manon.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Manon Fiorot by decision.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 17:36 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“As a pure pick, I'll take Manon Fiorot to come out here and win this decision.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 27:36 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 24:03 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso to win this one by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 10:50 Kunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by decision.

“Give me Alexa Grasso by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Alexa Grasso.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; FightIQ Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Kunath Hit; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.

Only 4 of 13 called the upset.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Grasso · Decision · R3

Closest probability Claude put 37% on Grasso.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
68% Fiorot
32% Grasso
PickFiorot · DecisionActualGrasso · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
63% Fiorot
37% Grasso
PickFiorot · DecisionActualGrasso · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
65% Fiorot
35% Grasso
PickFiorot · DecisionActualGrasso · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Fiorot

    Most likely: Fiorot by decision, about 54 in 100

    Win chance: Fiorot 68%, Grasso 32%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Fiorot

    Most likely: Fiorot by decision, about 33 in 100

    Win chance: Fiorot 63%, Grasso 37%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Fiorot

    Most likely: Fiorot by decision, about 52 in 100

    Win chance: Fiorot 65%, Grasso 35%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Fiorot.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Grasso: 32%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Grasso: 37%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Grasso: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54% (about 54 in 100).

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Fiorot by decision (54%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (13%)

  • Claude

    1. Fiorot by decision (33%); 2. Fiorot by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Grasso by decision (20%)

  • Gemini

    1. Fiorot by decision (52%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (12%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 68% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Fiorot's 63% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 76%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

How does Fiorot win?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 54%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot wins 63%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot wins 65%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 52%.

How does Grasso win?

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 20%.

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (22%).

  • Claude

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (20%).

  • Gemini

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (22%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Fiorot.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (54%).

  • Claude

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (33%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (52%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    22% (about 22 in 100).

  • Claude

    20% (about 20 in 100).

  • Gemini

    22% (about 22 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 76%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 10%, decision 53%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 16%, submission 10%, decision 74%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14%, against 10% for Grasso.

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30%, against 17% for Grasso.

  • Gemini

    Even: each finishes the other 13% of the time.

Can Fiorot get the finish? Can Grasso?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Grasso: 10% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%).

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%). Grasso: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%). Grasso: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 5%. Grasso is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Grasso is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%. Grasso is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33%. Grasso by decision: 20%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    76%.

  • Claude

    53%.

  • Gemini

    74%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 71%, Grasso 29%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 62%, Grasso 38%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 70%, Grasso 30%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 54% here against 43% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 33% here against 53% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 52% here against 44% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (68%).

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (63%).

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (65%).

Which model is most confident on Fiorot, and which on Grasso?

  • All models

    On Fiorot: ChatGPT (68%). On Grasso: Claude (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Fiorot by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 54% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • All models

    The MMA Guru (Fiorot by decision), TheWeasle (Fiorot by decision), Half The Battle (Fiorot by decision), Andrew Richardson (Fiorot by decision), MMA JOEY (Fiorot by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Fiorot by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Fiorot by decision) and FightIQ (Fiorot by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Fiorot, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    ChatGPT and Gemini, tied: each gave the actual result 22%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Fiorot

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Fiorot by decision, about 54 in 100

Win chance: Fiorot 68%, Grasso 32%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Fiorot by decision54%
  2. Grasso by decision22%
  3. Fiorot by KO/TKO13%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Fiorot 13%, Grasso 5%.
  2. Submission: Fiorot 1%, Grasso 5%.
  3. Decision: Fiorot 54%, Grasso 22%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Grasso: 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Grasso: 37%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Grasso: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54% (about 54 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Fiorot by decision (54%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (13%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Fiorot by decision (33%); 2. Fiorot by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Grasso by decision (20%)

  • Gemini

    1. Fiorot by decision (52%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (12%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 68% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Fiorot's 63% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 76%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

How does Fiorot win?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 54%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fiorot wins 63%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot wins 65%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 52%.

How does Grasso win?

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 20%.

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (22%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (20%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Fiorot.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (54%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (33%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (52%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    22% (about 22 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    20% (about 20 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 76%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 10%, decision 53%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 16%, submission 10%, decision 74%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14%, against 10% for Grasso.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30%, against 17% for Grasso.

  • Gemini

    Even: each finishes the other 13% of the time.

Can Fiorot get the finish? Can Grasso?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Grasso: 10% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%). Grasso: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%). Grasso: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 5%. Grasso is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fiorot is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Grasso is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%. Grasso is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33%. Grasso by decision: 20%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    76%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    53%.

  • Gemini

    74%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 71%, Grasso 29%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 62%, Grasso 38%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 70%, Grasso 30%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 54% here against 43% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 33% here against 53% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 52% here against 44% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (68%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (63%).

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (65%).

Which model is most confident on Fiorot, and which on Grasso?

  • ChatGPT

    On Fiorot: ChatGPT (68%). On Grasso: Claude (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 54% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    The MMA Guru (Fiorot by decision), TheWeasle (Fiorot by decision), Half The Battle (Fiorot by decision), Andrew Richardson (Fiorot by decision), MMA JOEY (Fiorot by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Fiorot by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Fiorot by decision) and FightIQ (Fiorot by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Fiorot, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    ChatGPT and Gemini, tied: each gave the actual result 22%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Fiorot

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Fiorot by decision, about 33 in 100

Win chance: Fiorot 63%, Grasso 37%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Fiorot by decision33%
  2. Fiorot by KO/TKO27%
  3. Grasso by decision20%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Fiorot 27%, Grasso 10%.
  2. Submission: Fiorot 3%, Grasso 7%.
  3. Decision: Fiorot 33%, Grasso 20%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Grasso: 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Grasso: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Grasso: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54% (about 54 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Fiorot by decision (33%); 2. Fiorot by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Grasso by decision (20%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Fiorot by decision (54%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (13%)

  • Gemini

    1. Fiorot by decision (52%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (12%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Fiorot's 63% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 68% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 76%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

How does Fiorot win?

  • Claude

    Fiorot wins 63%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 54%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot wins 65%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 52%.

How does Grasso win?

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 20%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (20%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (22%).

  • Gemini

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (22%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Fiorot.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (33%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (54%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (52%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    20% (about 20 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    22% (about 22 in 100).

  • Gemini

    22% (about 22 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 10%, decision 53%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 76%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 16%, submission 10%, decision 74%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30%, against 17% for Grasso.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14%, against 10% for Grasso.

  • Gemini

    Even: each finishes the other 13% of the time.

Can Fiorot get the finish? Can Grasso?

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%). Grasso: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Grasso: 10% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%).

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%). Grasso: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Fiorot is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Grasso is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 5%. Grasso is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%. Grasso is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33%. Grasso by decision: 20%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    53%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    76%.

  • Gemini

    74%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 62%, Grasso 38%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 71%, Grasso 29%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 70%, Grasso 30%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 33% here against 53% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 54% here against 43% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 52% here against 44% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (63%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (68%).

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (65%).

Which model is most confident on Fiorot, and which on Grasso?

  • Claude

    On Fiorot: ChatGPT (68%). On Grasso: Claude (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 54% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    The MMA Guru (Fiorot by decision), TheWeasle (Fiorot by decision), Half The Battle (Fiorot by decision), Andrew Richardson (Fiorot by decision), MMA JOEY (Fiorot by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Fiorot by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Fiorot by decision) and FightIQ (Fiorot by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Fiorot, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    ChatGPT and Gemini, tied: each gave the actual result 22%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Fiorot

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Fiorot by decision, about 52 in 100

Win chance: Fiorot 65%, Grasso 35%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Fiorot by decision52%
  2. Grasso by decision22%
  3. Fiorot by KO/TKO12%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Fiorot 12%, Grasso 4%.
  2. Submission: Fiorot 1%, Grasso 9%.
  3. Decision: Fiorot 52%, Grasso 22%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Grasso: 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Grasso: 32%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Grasso: 37%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54% (about 54 in 100).

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Fiorot by decision (52%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (12%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Fiorot by decision (54%); 2. Grasso by decision (22%); 3. Fiorot by KO/TKO (13%)

  • Claude

    1. Fiorot by decision (33%); 2. Fiorot by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Grasso by decision (20%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 65% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Fiorot's 68% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Fiorot's 63% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 76%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.

How does Fiorot win?

  • Gemini

    Fiorot wins 65%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 52%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot wins 68%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 54%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot wins 63%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

How does Grasso win?

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 20%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (22%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Grasso's most likely upset: Grasso by decision (20%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Fiorot.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (52%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (54%).

  • Claude

    Result: Grasso by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Fiorot by decision (33%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    22% (about 22 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    20% (about 20 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 16%, submission 10%, decision 74%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 76%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 10%, decision 53%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Even: each finishes the other 13% of the time.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14%, against 10% for Grasso.

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30%, against 17% for Grasso.

Can Fiorot get the finish? Can Grasso?

  • Gemini

    Fiorot: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%). Grasso: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Grasso: 10% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 5%).

  • Claude

    Fiorot: 30% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 3%). Grasso: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Fiorot is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%. Grasso is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 5%. Grasso is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Grasso is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: 52%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Fiorot by decision: 54%. Grasso by decision: 22%.

  • Claude

    Fiorot by decision: 33%. Grasso by decision: 20%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Grasso wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Grasso wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Grasso wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    74%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    76%.

  • Claude

    53%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 70%, Grasso 30%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 71%, Grasso 29%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Fiorot 62%, Grasso 38%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 52% here against 44% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 54% here against 43% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Fiorot by decision, 33% here against 53% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (65%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (68%).

  • Claude

    Of 13 analyst picks, 9 back Fiorot and 4 back Grasso. This model picks Fiorot (63%).

Which model is most confident on Fiorot, and which on Grasso?

  • Gemini

    On Fiorot: ChatGPT (68%). On Grasso: Claude (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Fiorot by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 54% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    The MMA Guru (Fiorot by decision), TheWeasle (Fiorot by decision), Half The Battle (Fiorot by decision), Andrew Richardson (Fiorot by decision), MMA JOEY (Fiorot by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Fiorot by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Fiorot by decision) and FightIQ (Fiorot by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Fiorot, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    ChatGPT and Gemini, tied: each gave the actual result 22%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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