Final · 29 Aug 2026

Tsuruya def. Borjas

Sub · Round 1 · 4:14

Tsuruya vs Borjas — Flyweight · Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Tsuruya (11-1-0) vs Borjas (11-5-0)

Flyweight
3 rounds
Preliminary Card
Nurmagomedov vs. Song • 29 Aug 2026
Shanghai, China

Result verified. Full fight recap pending source verification.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Analyst picks: The MMA Guru Hit; AJ Hit; MMAPREDICTIONGURU Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; HopperoMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit.

All 8 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results8 scored · 8 hits · 0 misses
Predicted byPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Tsuruya · to winTsuruya · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
Tsuruya · SubTsuruya · Sub R1HitHitNot called
Tsuruya · SubTsuruya · Sub R1HitHitNot called
Tsuruya · KO/TKO · R2Tsuruya · Sub R1HitMissMiss
Tsuruya · Sub · R1Tsuruya · Sub R1HitHitHit
Tsuruya · to winTsuruya · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
Tsuruya · Sub · R1Tsuruya · Sub R1HitHitHit
Tsuruya · Sub · R2Tsuruya · Sub R1HitHitMiss

8 of 8 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions — Results

Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Tsuruya · Submission · R1

Closest probability Gemini put 85% on Tsuruya.

ChatGPT13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
72% Tsuruya
28% Borjas
PickTsuruya · Submission · R2ActualTsuruya · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMiss
Claude11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
82% Tsuruya
18% Borjas
PickTsuruya · DecisionActualTsuruya · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
Gemini13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
85% Tsuruya
15% Borjas
PickTsuruya · Submission · R1ActualTsuruya · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundHit
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
Tsuruya vs Borjas
11-1-0
Record
11-5-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
24
Age
28
1.68 m
Height — Tsuruya leads
1.65 m
173 cm
Reach
173 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
—
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
4
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Borjas leads
8
6
Wins by submissionSub wins — Tsuruya leads
0
2.40
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / min — Borjas leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.87
1.91
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Tsuruya leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.27
43%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Borjas leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
50%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Borjas leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
73%
09:56
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:59
Japan
Nationality
Peru

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Tsuruya

Five of Tsuruya's eleven wins are submissions, and the rates behind them are 5.03 takedowns and 2.01 submission attempts per 15 minutes. What he does not do is defend — 43% striking defence, 50% takedown defence — which is more survivable against an opponent who never shoots.

Case for Borjas

Borjas has recorded 0.00 takedowns and 0.00 submission attempts per 15 minutes: a striker who stays a striker, with eight knockouts among eleven wins and 73% takedown defence. The figure against him is 5.27 significant strikes absorbed a minute, more than the 3.87 he lands.

What We Were Watching For

  • Tsuruya's 5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes against Borjas's 73% takedown defence — and Borjas's own 0.00, which leaves Tsuruya nothing to defend.
  • Borjas has never recorded a submission attempt. Five of Tsuruya's eleven wins are submissions.
  • Tsuruya's 43% striking defence against a man who has stopped eight of his eleven opponents.
  • Borjas beat Andre Lima in June; Lima fights Namsrai Batbayar on this same card.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

The Read

Latest snapshot · T-7

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

ChatGPT
72% 28%
Claude
82% 18%
Gemini
85% 15%

3 of 3 models favour Tsuruya. The combined forecast puts 40% on Submission as the likeliest finish.

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Rei Tsuruya is favored because the locked distribution assigns him a 72% overall win probability, led by a 36% submission outcome. Kevin Borjas's strongest path is a KO/TKO at 18%, but the model's likeliest single outcome is a Tsuruya submission in round two.”

What to watch

  • Tsuruya holds a 72% overall win probability in the locked distribution.
  • Tsuruya by submission is the largest individual outcome at 36%.
  • Borjas by KO/TKO is the principal upset outcome at 18%.

Swing factor

Whether Borjas can keep the fight in the phase most favorable to his 18% KO/TKO path before Tsuruya can realize the model's submission-heavy advantage.

Where the models differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing. The full model calls are below.

  • ChatGPTTsuruya · Submission · Round 2 · high confidence
  • ClaudeTsuruya · Decision · high confidence
  • GeminiTsuruya · Submission · Round 1 · high confidence

Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Tsuruya.

Method outlook KO/TKO 26% · Submission 40% · Decision 34%.

Model spread 72%–85% Tsuruya · 15%–28% Borjas.

Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

ChatGPT

gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

72% Tsuruya
28% Borjas

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

7%
18%
25% · KO/TKO: Tsuruya 7%, Borjas 18%
36%
1%
37% · Submission: Tsuruya 36%, Borjas 1%
29%
9%
38% · Decision: Tsuruya 29%, Borjas 9%

Pick

Rei Tsuruya

Submission · Round 2high · ●●●

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Rei Tsuruya is favored because the locked distribution assigns him a 72% overall win probability, led by a 36% submission outcome. Kevin Borjas's strongest path is a KO/TKO at 18%, but the model's likeliest single outcome is a Tsuruya submission in round two.

Keys to victory

  • Tsuruya holds a 72% overall win probability in the locked distribution.
  • Tsuruya by submission is the largest individual outcome at 36%.
  • Borjas by KO/TKO is the principal upset outcome at 18%.

X-factor

Whether Borjas can keep the fight in the phase most favorable to his 18% KO/TKO path before Tsuruya can realize the model's submission-heavy advantage.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

Claude

claude-opus-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

82% Tsuruya
18% Borjas

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

12%
12%
24% · KO/TKO: Tsuruya 12%, Borjas 12%
34%
1%
35% · Submission: Tsuruya 34%, Borjas 1%
36%
5%
41% · Decision: Tsuruya 36%, Borjas 5%

Pick

Rei Tsuruya

Decisionhigh · ●●●

How Claude sees the fight

Rei Tsuruya should win by imposing a wrestling-first game: entries, control, back-take, choke. Tsuruya's UFC takedown completion is only ~25% (8/32) and his striking output is low (17/32/17 sig. strikes in three UFC bouts), so a grindy decision is at least as likely as a finish. Kevin Borjas has the output and pop edge standing (3.87 vs 2.40 SLpM) but absorbs 5.27/min, has 0 UFC takedowns and 73% TDD, and is on a 70-day turnaround in his third fight in six months after missing weight in June. The model prices Tsuruya ~82%, marginally under the ~85% no-vig market.

Keys to victory

  • Grappling gap: Rei Tsuruya's wrestling base and 2.01 subs/15min vs Kevin Borjas' 73% TDD; Borjas was taken down before Imanol Rodriguez finished him
  • Standing risk is real: Kevin Borjas has the volume (3.87 SLpM) and knockdown edge against Rei Tsuruya's 43% strike defense and 0.00 knockdown average
  • Load and weight: Borjas' 70-day turnaround, three fights in six months and a 3 lb miss in June vs Tsuruya's first 125 lb cut since March 2025

X-factor

Weigh-ins (Aug 28) were unknown at research close: Kevin Borjas missed weight last time after walking around 170, and Rei Tsuruya returns to 125 post-layoff — either bad cut reshapes the grappling.

11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent

Gemini

gemini-3.1-pro-high · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

85% Tsuruya
15% Borjas

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

20%
10%
30% · KO/TKO: Tsuruya 20%, Borjas 10%
45%
2%
47% · Submission: Tsuruya 45%, Borjas 2%
20%
3%
23% · Decision: Tsuruya 20%, Borjas 3%

Pick

Rei Tsuruya

Submission · Round 1high · ●●●

How Gemini sees the fight

Based on the provided records and inferred stylistic profiles from the assignment, Rei Tsuruya (11-1-0) enters as the clear favorite over Kevin Borjas (11-5-0). Model inference suggests that Tsuruya will effectively implement a dominant, likely grappling-heavy game plan, exploiting Borjas's statistical defensive gaps to secure a submission or TKO. Borjas's most viable path to victory relies on landing a concussive strike, which remains a low-probability outcome given the respective trajectories of both fighters.

Keys to victory

  • Rei Tsuruya's strong 11-1-0 record suggests a dominant stylistic advantage, inferred to be a high-level grappling skill set.
  • Kevin Borjas's 11-5-0 record indicates exploitable defensive vulnerabilities against top-tier prospects.
  • Model inference points to a likely early finish for Tsuruya via submission or ground strikes due to the notable disparity in their professional records.

X-factor

High-variance striking exchanges in the opening minutes representing Borjas's primary path to an upset.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Fighters

Rei Tsuruya
11-1-0 · Flyweight
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Kevin Borjas
11-5-0 · Flyweight
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