UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Rei Tsuruya defeats Kevin Borjas by Submission

Win Rei Tsuruya 12-1-0
Loss Kevin Borjas 11-6-0
Submission

Round 1 · 4:14

Tsuruya vs Borjas — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Rei Tsuruya took Kevin Borjas down in less than a minute and punished him from top position.

When Borjas stood, Tsuruya took his back and dragged him down again before securing a first-round rear-naked choke.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Tsuruya

Five of Tsuruya's eleven wins are submissions, and the rates behind them are 5.03 takedowns and 2.01 submission attempts per 15 minutes. What he does not do is defend — 43% striking defence, 50% takedown defence — which is more survivable against an opponent who never shoots.

Case for Borjas

Borjas has recorded 0.00 takedowns and 0.00 submission attempts per 15 minutes: a striker who stays a striker, with eight knockouts among eleven wins and 73% takedown defence. The figure against him is 5.27 significant strikes absorbed a minute, more than the 3.87 he lands.

What We Were Watching For

  • Tsuruya's 5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes against Borjas's 73% takedown defence — and Borjas's own 0.00, which leaves Tsuruya nothing to defend.
  • Borjas has never recorded a submission attempt. Five of Tsuruya's eleven wins are submissions.
  • Tsuruya's 43% striking defence against a man who has stopped eight of his eleven opponents.
  • Borjas beat Andre Lima in June; Lima fights Namsrai Batbayar on this same card.
Records & career stats
Tsuruya vs Borjas
Tsuruya Borjas
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 2.85 3.70
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 43% 50%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 1.79 5.44
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 50% 70%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 83% 73%
11-1-0
Record
11-5-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Japan
Nationality
Peru
24
Age
28
5′6″168 cm
Height — Tsuruya leads
5′5″165 cm
68″173 cm
Reach
68″173 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
83%
Finish rateFinish % — Tsuruya leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
73%
4
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Borjas leads
8
6
Wins by submissionSub wins — Tsuruya leads
0
2.85
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Borjas leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.70
1.79
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Tsuruya leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.44
43%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Borjas leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
50%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Borjas leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
70%
09:07
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:54
The BLACKBELT Japan
Team
Pitbull Martial Arts Center

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 15:29 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya for a second-round ground-and-pound stoppage.

“Rei Tsuruya, TKO via ground and pound in the second round.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 11:45 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya by second-round submission; the captioned name is garbled but the opponent and card context resolve the bout.

“I'm going to go with Ray Seruya to win this fight by a second round submission.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya · Dec

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

FightIQ's public record lists Rei Tsuruya as its pick over Kevin Borjas.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 35:50 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya · Sub

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya by submission.

“Rei Tsuruya sub is the pick.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 13:55 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya without committing to a method.

“I'm gonna go with Ray Turia.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 30:15 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya for a first-round submission through his grappling advantage.

“First-round submission.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 6:17 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya and expects an early finish without committing to one exact outcome.

“I think it's Tsuruya here. I think it's done in rounds one or rounds two.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 9:52 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya by first-round submission.

“Rei Tsuruya by sub in the first round.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 31:42 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rei Tsuruya · Sub

Fight result: Rei Tsuruya · Submission

Picks Rei Tsuruya by submission, allowing either of the opening two rounds.

“Rei Tsuruya for me in this fight to win via submission.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit.

9 of 9 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Tsuruya · Submission · R1

Closest probability Gemini put 85% on Tsuruya.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
72% Tsuruya
28% Borjas
PickTsuruya · Submission · R2ActualTsuruya · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundMissHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
82% Tsuruya
18% Borjas
PickTsuruya · DecisionActualTsuruya · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
85% Tsuruya
15% Borjas
PickTsuruya · Submission · R1ActualTsuruya · Submission · R1
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundHitHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Tsuruya

    Most likely: Tsuruya by submission, about 36 in 100

    Win chance: Tsuruya 72%, Borjas 28%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Tsuruya

    Most likely: Tsuruya by decision, about 36 in 100

    Win chance: Tsuruya 82%, Borjas 18%.

    claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug

    Confidence 8 of 10 · High

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Tsuruya

    Most likely: Tsuruya by submission, about 45 in 100

    Win chance: Tsuruya 85%, Borjas 15%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Confidence 9 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Tsuruya.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Borjas: 28%.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Borjas: 18%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 85% (about 85 in 100 fights). Borjas: 15%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya by submission: 36% (about 36 in 100).

  • Claude

    Tsuruya by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya by submission: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Tsuruya by submission (36%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (29%); 3. Borjas by KO/TKO (18%)

  • Claude

    1. Tsuruya by decision (36%); 2. Tsuruya by submission (34%); 3. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (12%)

  • Gemini

    1. Tsuruya by submission (45%); 2. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (20%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 72% win chance.

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 82% win chance.

  • Gemini

    9 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 85% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 77%. Decision: 23%.

How does Tsuruya win?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya wins 72%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%, decision 29%.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya wins 82%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%, decision 36%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya wins 85%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%, decision 20%.

How does Borjas win?

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%, decision 9%.

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 5%.

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 3%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Tsuruya.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's most likely outcome.

  • Claude

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tsuruya by decision (36%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's most likely outcome.

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 25%, submission 37%, decision 38%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 24%, submission 35%, decision 41%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 47%, decision 23%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43%, against 19% for Borjas.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46%, against 13% for Borjas.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65%, against 12% for Borjas.

Can Tsuruya get the finish? Can Borjas?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%). Borjas: 19% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%). Borjas: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%). Borjas: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 36%.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 34%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Borjas is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 45%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 85% vs 15%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15% (about 1 in 7 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    38%.

  • Claude

    41%.

  • Gemini

    23%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 76%, Borjas 24%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 88%, Borjas 12%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 87%, Borjas 13%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Tsuruya by decision, 36% here against 25% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Tsuruya by decision, 20% here against 33% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (72%).

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (82%).

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (85%).

Which model is most confident on Tsuruya, and which on Borjas?

  • All models

    On Tsuruya: Gemini (85%). On Borjas: ChatGPT (28%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Tsuruya by decision: from 20% (Gemini) to 36% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    FightIQ (Tsuruya by decision): the same winner and method as this model; this model favours Tsuruya, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Tsuruya

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Tsuruya by submission, about 36 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Tsuruya 72%, Borjas 28%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Tsuruya by submission36%
  2. Tsuruya by decision29%
  3. Borjas by KO/TKO18%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Tsuruya 7%, Borjas 18%.
  2. Submission: Tsuruya 36%, Borjas 1%.
  3. Decision: Tsuruya 29%, Borjas 9%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Rei Tsuruya is favored because the locked distribution assigns him a 72% overall win probability, led by a 36% submission outcome. Kevin Borjas's strongest path is a KO/TKO at 18%, but the model's likeliest single outcome is a Tsuruya submission in round two.

Keys to victory

  • Tsuruya holds a 72% overall win probability in the locked distribution.
  • Tsuruya by submission is the largest individual outcome at 36%.
  • Borjas by KO/TKO is the principal upset outcome at 18%.

X-factor

Whether Borjas can keep the fight in the phase most favorable to his 18% KO/TKO path before Tsuruya can realize the model's submission-heavy advantage.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Borjas: 28%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Borjas: 18%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 85% (about 85 in 100 fights). Borjas: 15%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya by submission: 36% (about 36 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tsuruya by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya by submission: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Tsuruya by submission (36%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (29%); 3. Borjas by KO/TKO (18%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Tsuruya by decision (36%); 2. Tsuruya by submission (34%); 3. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (12%)

  • Gemini

    1. Tsuruya by submission (45%); 2. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (20%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 72% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 82% win chance.

  • Gemini

    9 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 85% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 77%. Decision: 23%.

How does Tsuruya win?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya wins 72%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%, decision 29%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tsuruya wins 82%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%, decision 36%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya wins 85%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%, decision 20%.

How does Borjas win?

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%, decision 9%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 5%.

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 3%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Tsuruya.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's most likely outcome.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tsuruya by decision (36%).

More questions (16)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 25%, submission 37%, decision 38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 24%, submission 35%, decision 41%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 47%, decision 23%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43%, against 19% for Borjas.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46%, against 13% for Borjas.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65%, against 12% for Borjas.

Can Tsuruya get the finish? Can Borjas?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%). Borjas: 19% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%). Borjas: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%). Borjas: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 36%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 34%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Borjas is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 45%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 85% vs 15%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15% (about 1 in 7 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    41%.

  • Gemini

    23%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 76%, Borjas 24%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 88%, Borjas 12%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 87%, Borjas 13%.

Compared with others 3 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (72%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (82%).

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (85%).

Which model is most confident on Tsuruya, and which on Borjas?

  • ChatGPT

    On Tsuruya: Gemini (85%). On Borjas: ChatGPT (28%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya by decision: from 20% (Gemini) to 36% (Claude).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Tsuruya

Confidence 8 of 10 · High

Most likely: Tsuruya by decision, about 36 in 100

Win chance: Tsuruya 82%, Borjas 18%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Tsuruya by decision36%
  2. Tsuruya by submission34%
  3. Tsuruya by KO/TKO, tied for number 312%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Tsuruya 12%, Borjas 12%.
  2. Submission: Tsuruya 34%, Borjas 1%.
  3. Decision: Tsuruya 36%, Borjas 5%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Claude sees the fight

Rei Tsuruya should win by imposing a wrestling-first game: entries, control, back-take, choke. Tsuruya's UFC takedown completion is only ~25% (8/32) and his striking output is low (17/32/17 sig. strikes in three UFC bouts), so a grindy decision is at least as likely as a finish. Kevin Borjas has the output and pop edge standing (3.87 vs 2.40 SLpM) but absorbs 5.27/min, has 0 UFC takedowns and 73% TDD, and is on a 70-day turnaround in his third fight in six months after missing weight in June. The model prices Tsuruya ~82%, marginally under the ~85% no-vig market.

Keys to victory

  • Grappling gap: Rei Tsuruya's wrestling base and 2.01 subs/15min vs Kevin Borjas' 73% TDD; Borjas was taken down before Imanol Rodriguez finished him
  • Standing risk is real: Kevin Borjas has the volume (3.87 SLpM) and knockdown edge against Rei Tsuruya's 43% strike defense and 0.00 knockdown average
  • Load and weight: Borjas' 70-day turnaround, three fights in six months and a 3 lb miss in June vs Tsuruya's first 125 lb cut since March 2025

X-factor

Weigh-ins (Aug 28) were unknown at research close: Kevin Borjas missed weight last time after walking around 170, and Rei Tsuruya returns to 125 post-layoff — either bad cut reshapes the grappling.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Borjas: 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Borjas: 28%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 85% (about 85 in 100 fights). Borjas: 15%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Tsuruya by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya by submission: 36% (about 36 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya by submission: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Tsuruya by decision (36%); 2. Tsuruya by submission (34%); 3. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (12%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Tsuruya by submission (36%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (29%); 3. Borjas by KO/TKO (18%)

  • Gemini

    1. Tsuruya by submission (45%); 2. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (20%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 82% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 72% win chance.

  • Gemini

    9 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 85% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 77%. Decision: 23%.

How does Tsuruya win?

  • Claude

    Tsuruya wins 82%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%, decision 36%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya wins 72%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%, decision 29%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya wins 85%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%, decision 20%.

How does Borjas win?

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%, decision 9%.

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 3%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Tsuruya.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tsuruya by decision (36%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's most likely outcome.

  • Gemini

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's most likely outcome.

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 24%, submission 35%, decision 41%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 25%, submission 37%, decision 38%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 47%, decision 23%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46%, against 13% for Borjas.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43%, against 19% for Borjas.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65%, against 12% for Borjas.

Can Tsuruya get the finish? Can Borjas?

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%). Borjas: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%). Borjas: 19% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%).

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%). Borjas: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 34%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 36%.

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Borjas is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 45%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 85% vs 15%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15% (about 1 in 7 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    41%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    38%.

  • Gemini

    23%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 88%, Borjas 12%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 76%, Borjas 24%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 87%, Borjas 13%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Tsuruya by decision, 36% here against 25% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Tsuruya by decision, 20% here against 33% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (82%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (72%).

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (85%).

Which model is most confident on Tsuruya, and which on Borjas?

  • Claude

    On Tsuruya: Gemini (85%). On Borjas: ChatGPT (28%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Tsuruya by decision: from 20% (Gemini) to 36% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    FightIQ (Tsuruya by decision): the same winner and method as this model; this model favours Tsuruya, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Tsuruya

Confidence 9 of 10 · High

Most likely: Tsuruya by submission, about 45 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 1.

Win chance: Tsuruya 85%, Borjas 15%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Tsuruya by submission45%
  2. Tsuruya by KO/TKO, tied for number 220%
  3. Tsuruya by decision, tied for number 220%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Tsuruya 20%, Borjas 10%.
  2. Submission: Tsuruya 45%, Borjas 2%.
  3. Decision: Tsuruya 20%, Borjas 3%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Gemini sees the fight

Based on the provided records and inferred stylistic profiles from the assignment, Rei Tsuruya (11-1-0) enters as the clear favorite over Kevin Borjas (11-5-0). Model inference suggests that Tsuruya will effectively implement a dominant, likely grappling-heavy game plan, exploiting Borjas's statistical defensive gaps to secure a submission or TKO. Borjas's most viable path to victory relies on landing a concussive strike, which remains a low-probability outcome given the respective trajectories of both fighters.

Keys to victory

  • Rei Tsuruya's strong 11-1-0 record suggests a dominant stylistic advantage, inferred to be a high-level grappling skill set.
  • Kevin Borjas's 11-5-0 record indicates exploitable defensive vulnerabilities against top-tier prospects.
  • Model inference points to a likely early finish for Tsuruya via submission or ground strikes due to the notable disparity in their professional records.

X-factor

High-variance striking exchanges in the opening minutes representing Borjas's primary path to an upset.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 85% (about 85 in 100 fights). Borjas: 15%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Borjas: 28%.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 82% (about 82 in 100 fights). Borjas: 18%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya by submission: 45% (about 45 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya by submission: 36% (about 36 in 100).

  • Claude

    Tsuruya by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Tsuruya by submission (45%); 2. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (20%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Tsuruya by submission (36%); 2. Tsuruya by decision (29%); 3. Borjas by KO/TKO (18%)

  • Claude

    1. Tsuruya by decision (36%); 2. Tsuruya by submission (34%); 3. Tsuruya by KO/TKO (12%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    9 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 85% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 72% win chance.

  • Claude

    8 of 10, based on Tsuruya's 82% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 77%. Decision: 23%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 62%. Decision: 38%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.

How does Tsuruya win?

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya wins 85%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%, decision 20%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya wins 72%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%, decision 29%.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya wins 82%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%, decision 36%.

How does Borjas win?

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%, decision 9%.

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%, decision 5%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Tsuruya.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's most likely outcome.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Tsuruya by submission in round 1. Tsuruya by submission was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Tsuruya by decision (36%).

More questions (17)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 47%, decision 23%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 25%, submission 37%, decision 38%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 24%, submission 35%, decision 41%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65%, against 12% for Borjas.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43%, against 19% for Borjas.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46%, against 13% for Borjas.

Can Tsuruya get the finish? Can Borjas?

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya: 65% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 45%). Borjas: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya: 43% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 36%). Borjas: 19% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Tsuruya: 46% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 34%). Borjas: 13% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%. Borjas is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 45%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 36%.

  • Claude

    Tsuruya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 1%. Borjas is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 34%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 85% vs 15%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 82% vs 18%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Borjas wins 15% (about 1 in 7 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Borjas wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Borjas wins 18% (about 1 in 6 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    23%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    38%.

  • Claude

    41%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 87%, Borjas 13%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 76%, Borjas 24%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Tsuruya 88%, Borjas 12%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Tsuruya by decision, 20% here against 33% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Tsuruya by decision, 36% here against 25% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (85%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (72%).

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 9 back Tsuruya and 0 back Borjas. This model picks Tsuruya (82%).

Which model is most confident on Tsuruya, and which on Borjas?

  • Gemini

    On Tsuruya: Gemini (85%). On Borjas: ChatGPT (28%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Tsuruya by decision: from 20% (Gemini) to 36% (Claude).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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