42%
Batbayar
58%
Lima
PickLima · DecisionActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledLima def. Batbayar
Sub · Round 3 · 3:03
Batbayar vs Lima — Flyweight · Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Result verified. Full fight recap pending source verification.
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
0
LBatbayar
10
LimaW
Analyst picks: The MMA Guru Hit; TheWeasle Hit; AJ Hit; MMAPREDICTIONGURU Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; HopperoMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Half The Battle Hit.
All 10 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results10 scored · 10 hits · 0 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima to win a competitive decision. “I'm going to go with Andre Lemur by decision ... 29-28.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · KO/TKO · R3 | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| Picks Andre Lima by third-round knockout. “Andre Lima is going to get the win by knockout in the third round.” Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima to outpoint Namsrai Batbayar for a decision win. “I'll predict him to win by a decision.” Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · Sub | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima by submission. “Give me Andre Lima via submission.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima by decision. “I'm going to go with Andre Lima by decision.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima by decision. “Andre Lima by decision.” Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · Sub | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima by submission as a live plus-money bet. “I took a shot on Lima by submission. Lima by submission plus 400.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · to win | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks includes Andre Lima in his parlay. “This is my parlay. It's Andre Lima and Liu Ce. I think he wins this fight.” Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · Sub | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima by submission, expecting his movement, leg kicks and durability to create a later grappling opening. “Andre Lima by submission.” Track record: winner called in 60 of 90 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Andre Lima by decision for cleaner, quicker counter work. “I suspect and I predict Andre Lima comes out here and wins a decision.” Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks. | |||||
10 of 10 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions — Results
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Lima · Submission · R3
Closest probability Claude put 68% on Lima.
32%
Batbayar
68%
Lima
PickLima · DecisionActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
50%
Batbayar
50%
Lima
PickBatbayar · Submission · R2ActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedArchive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 10-1-0
- Record
- 11-1-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3.94
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2.66
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 59%
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 76%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 13:30
- Mongolia
- Nationality
- Brazil
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Batbayar
Batbayar has never been to a decision. Eleven professional fights, ten wins — five by knockout and five by submission, an even split almost nobody carries — and a single defeat that also ended early. He has won six straight.
Case for Lima
Lima's record is the opposite kind: five of his twelve fights reached the judges and he averages 13:30. He defends 76% of takedowns and throws 0.93 submission attempts per 15 minutes, so his route is to make Batbayar work through rounds Batbayar has never had to fight.
What We Were Watching For
- Batbayar has never been to a decision in eleven fights. Lima has been to five in twelve.
- Lima's 76% takedown defence against an opponent whose wins split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
- Every win of Batbayar's career ended inside the distance; he is 25 and on a six-fight run.
- Lima's most recent defeat was to Kevin Borjas in June — and Borjas fights Rei Tsuruya on this same card.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-7
Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.
ChatGPT
42%
58%
Claude
32%
68%
Gemini
50%
50%
2 of 3 models favour Lima. The combined forecast puts 44% on Decision as the likeliest finish.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Andre Lima is the 58% pick, with a blue decision the most likely single outcome at 39%. Namsrai Batbayar retains a 42% overall chance, led by submission at 18% and KO/TKO at 14%.”
What to watch
- The locked distribution gives Lima a 58% total win probability and Batbayar 42%.
- Lima by decision is the largest individual outcome at 39%.
- Batbayar's combined finish probability is 32%, making an early or late stoppage his clearest modeled route.
Swing factor
Whether Batbayar converts his 32% combined finishing chance before the bout reaches the decision outcome favored by the model.
Where the models differ
The models differ on winner, finish method, round timing, confidence. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTLima · Decision · medium confidence
- ClaudeLima · Decision · medium confidence
- GeminiBatbayar · Submission · Round 2 · low confidence
Agreement 2 of 3 models pick Lima.
Method outlook KO/TKO 31% · Submission 25% · Decision 44%.
Model spread 32%–50% Batbayar · 50%–68% Lima.
Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
ChatGPT
gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-24
Overall win probability
42%
Batbayar
58%
Lima
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
14%
15%
29% · KO/TKO: Batbayar 14%, Lima 15%
18%
4%
22% · Submission: Batbayar 18%, Lima 4%
10%
39%
49% · Decision: Batbayar 10%, Lima 39%
Pick
Andre Lima
How ChatGPT sees the fight
Andre Lima is the 58% pick, with a blue decision the most likely single outcome at 39%. Namsrai Batbayar retains a 42% overall chance, led by submission at 18% and KO/TKO at 14%.
Keys to victory
- The locked distribution gives Lima a 58% total win probability and Batbayar 42%.
- Lima by decision is the largest individual outcome at 39%.
- Batbayar's combined finish probability is 32%, making an early or late stoppage his clearest modeled route.
X-factor
Whether Batbayar converts his 32% combined finishing chance before the bout reaches the decision outcome favored by the model.
KO/TKO 29%Submission 22%Decision 49%
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
Claude
claude-opus-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-08-24
Overall win probability
32%
Batbayar
68%
Lima
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
20%
8%
28% · KO/TKO: Batbayar 20%, Lima 8%
10%
14%
24% · Submission: Batbayar 10%, Lima 14%
2%
46%
48% · Decision: Batbayar 2%, Lima 46%
Pick
Andre Lima
How Claude sees the fight
Andre Lima is the more proven, longer, higher-volume flyweight — 3.94 SLpM, 57% accuracy, 13:30 average fight time, never finished — against Namsrai Batbayar, a debutant whose record is all finishes and who has not been past round two since 2022 (source-7, source-6, source-2). Batbayar's path is fast: hook, drop, back-take, RNC — the sequence Lima's 76% takedown defense and the scramble issues Borjas exposed invite (source-5). If Lima banks the first five minutes, the level-of-competition gap compounds for him. Model's 68% Lima sits near the market's ~71% (source-11), most of it on the cards.
Keys to victory
- Experience gap: Andre Lima has 5 UFC bouts and 45+ Octagon minutes; Namsrai Batbayar's best wins are Road to UFC level and he has never fought past round two
- Namsrai Batbayar's finishes are front-loaded — six first-round stoppages, knockdown into back-take RNC — against a man Borjas out-landed and took down
- Andre Lima's durability and pacing (never finished, 57% accuracy, 59% defense) vs Namsrai Batbayar's 48% striking defense and 3.42 SApM over a long fight
X-factor
Andre Lima's schedule: a 15-month layoff broken in June, now a ~10-week turnaround plus Brazil-to-Shanghai travel — a slow first round is exactly the window Namsrai Batbayar's power needs.
KO/TKO 28%Submission 24%Decision 48%
11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
Gemini
gemini-3.1-pro-high · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-24
Overall win probability
50%
Batbayar
50%
Lima
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
15%
20%
35% · KO/TKO: Batbayar 15%, Lima 20%
25%
5%
30% · Submission: Batbayar 25%, Lima 5%
10%
25%
35% · Decision: Batbayar 10%, Lima 25%
Pick
Namsrai Batbayar
How Gemini sees the fight
Batbayar and Lima clash in a classic grappler versus striker flyweight matchup. Batbayar (10-1-0) brings momentum from his Road to UFC win and a 100% finish rate fueled by aggressive grappling. Lima (11-1-0) counters with elite kickboxing, high striking volume, and a BJJ brown belt. This coin-flip bout hinges on Lima's takedown defense. If Lima keeps it standing, his volume can win rounds, but Batbayar's finishing threat remains constantly dangerous. The forecast predicts Namsrai Batbayar to win, favoring his grappling and finish upside.
Keys to victory
- Batbayar's aggressive wrestling and 100% finish rate
- Lima's high striking volume and heavy leg kicks
- Lima's takedown defense determining whether the bout remains on the feet
X-factor
Lima's takedown defense. If he stuffs Batbayar's entries, he dictates the striking exchanges; if not, Batbayar's perfect finishing rate threatens to end the bout on the mat.
KO/TKO 35%Submission 30%Decision 35%
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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