UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Andre Lima defeats Namsrai Batbayar by Submission

Loss Namsrai Batbayar 10-2-0
Win Andre Lima 12-1-0
Submission

Round 3 · 3:03

Batbayar vs Lima — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The more experienced and polished Brazilian was the more effective of the two throughout the first two rounds, constantly walking down Batbayar and landing the bigger shots in what was a relatively low output contest on both sides.

Midway through the third, Lima dove on a guillotine choke as the Mongolian dipped his head, quickly transitioning to full mount and securing the tap.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Batbayar

Batbayar has never been to a decision. Eleven professional fights, ten wins — five by knockout and five by submission, an even split almost nobody carries — and a single defeat that also ended early. He has won six straight.

Case for Lima

Lima's record is the opposite kind: five of his twelve fights reached the judges and he averages 13:30. He defends 76% of takedowns and throws 0.93 submission attempts per 15 minutes, so his route is to make Batbayar work through rounds Batbayar has never had to fight.

What We Were Watching For

  • Batbayar has never been to a decision in eleven fights. Lima has been to five in twelve.
  • Lima's 76% takedown defence against an opponent whose wins split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
  • Every win of Batbayar's career ended inside the distance; he is 25 and on a six-fight run.
  • Lima's most recent defeat was to Kevin Borjas in June — and Borjas fights Rei Tsuruya on this same card.
Records & career stats
Batbayar vs Lima
10-1-0
Record
11-1-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Mongolia
Nationality
Brazil
25
Age
27
5′4″163 cm
Height — Lima leads
5′7″170 cm
68″173 cm
Reach — Batbayar leads
67″171 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
100%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
5
5
Wins by submissionSub wins — Batbayar leads
2
4.2
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Batbayar leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.89
3.5
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Lima leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.83
44%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Lima leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Batbayar leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
77%
07:13
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:26
Storm Team
Team
Chute Boxe

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 15:57 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision.

“I'm going to go with Andre Lima by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 13:21 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by third-round knockout.

“Eventually knock him out in the third round after accumulation of shots throughout the fight.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

FightIQ's public record lists Andre Lima as its pick over Namsrai Batbayar.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 41:43 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima to outpoint Namsrai Batbayar for a decision win.

“I'll predict him to win by a decision.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 16:55 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima to win a competitive decision.

“I'm going to go with Andre Lemur by decision ... 29-28.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 34:31 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission, expecting his movement, leg kicks and durability to create a later grappling opening.

“Andre Lima by submission.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 7:36 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission as a live plus-money bet.

“I took a shot on Lima by submission. Lima by submission plus 400.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 11:03 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks includes Andre Lima in his parlay.

“This is my parlay. It's Andre Lima and Liu Ce. I think he wins this fight.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 8:07 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision.

“Andre Lima by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 38:08 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Sub

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by submission.

“Give me Andre Lima via submission.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 21:07 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Andre Lima · Dec

Fight result: Andre Lima · Submission

Picks Andre Lima by decision for cleaner, quicker counter work.

“I suspect and I predict Andre Lima comes out here and wins a decision.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Hit.

11 of 11 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Lima · Submission · R3

Closest probability Claude put 68% on Lima.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
42% Batbayar
58% Lima
PickLima · DecisionActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
32% Batbayar
68% Lima
PickLima · DecisionActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
50% Batbayar
50% Lima
PickBatbayar · Submission · R2ActualLima · Submission · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Lima

    Most likely: Lima by decision, about 39 in 100

    Win chance: Batbayar 42%, Lima 58%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Lima

    Most likely: Lima by decision, about 46 in 100

    Win chance: Batbayar 32%, Lima 68%.

    claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Even — no pick

    Most likely: a tie between Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision, about 25 in 100 each

    Win chance: Batbayar 50%, Lima 50%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    No confidence level: the model has it even

2 of 3 models pick Lima; Gemini has it even.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Lima: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 42%.

  • Claude

    Lima: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Even — no pick: Batbayar and Lima each win 50%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Lima by decision: 39% (about 39 in 100).

  • Claude

    Lima by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).

  • Gemini

    A tie: Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision, 25% each (about 25 in 100 each).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Lima by decision (39%); 2. Batbayar by submission (18%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (15%)

  • Claude

    1. Lima by decision (46%); 2. Batbayar by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Lima by submission (14%)

  • Gemini

    1. Batbayar by submission (25%); 1. Lima by decision (25%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (20%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Lima's 58% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Lima's 68% win chance.

  • Gemini

    No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

How does Batbayar win?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar wins 42%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%, decision 10%.

  • Claude

    Batbayar wins 32%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 2%.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar wins 50%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%, decision 10%.

How does Lima win?

  • ChatGPT

    Lima wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%, decision 39%.

  • Claude

    Lima wins 68%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 46%.

  • Gemini

    Lima wins 50%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 25%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Lima. Gemini makes no pick.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (39%).

  • Claude

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (46%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision (25% each).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 22%, decision 49%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 28%, submission 24%, decision 48%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 30%, decision 35%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32%, against 19% for Lima.

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30%, against 22% for Lima.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40%, against 25% for Lima.

Can Batbayar get the finish? Can Lima?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%). Lima: 19% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%).

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Lima: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%). Lima: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 4%. Lima is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 18%.

  • Claude

    Batbayar is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Lima is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%. Lima is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 25%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 50% vs 50%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Batbayar wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    49%.

  • Claude

    48%.

  • Gemini

    35%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 20%, Lima 80%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 4%, Lima 96%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 29%, Lima 71%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Lima by decision, 46% here against 32% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Lima by decision, 25% here against 43% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (58%).

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (68%).

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model has it even — no pick.

Which model is most confident on Batbayar, and which on Lima?

  • All models

    On Batbayar: Gemini (50%). On Lima: Claude (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Lima by decision: from 25% (Gemini) to 46% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    The MMA Guru (Lima by decision), AJ Devito (Lima by decision), Bedtime MMA (Lima by decision), HopperMMA (Lima by decision), Half The Battle (Lima by decision) and FightIQ (Lima by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Lima, most likely by decision.

  • Claude

    The MMA Guru (Lima by decision), AJ Devito (Lima by decision), Bedtime MMA (Lima by decision), HopperMMA (Lima by decision), Half The Battle (Lima by decision) and FightIQ (Lima by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Lima, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    No.

  • Claude

    Yes.

  • Gemini

    No.

ChatGPT

Pick

Lima

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Lima by decision, about 39 in 100

Win chance: Batbayar 42%, Lima 58%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Lima by decision39%
  2. Batbayar by submission18%
  3. Lima by KO/TKO15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Batbayar 14%, Lima 15%.
  2. Submission: Batbayar 18%, Lima 4%.
  3. Decision: Batbayar 10%, Lima 39%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Andre Lima is the 58% pick, with a blue decision the most likely single outcome at 39%. Namsrai Batbayar retains a 42% overall chance, led by submission at 18% and KO/TKO at 14%.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Lima a 58% total win probability and Batbayar 42%.
  • Lima by decision is the largest individual outcome at 39%.
  • Batbayar's combined finish probability is 32%, making an early or late stoppage his clearest modeled route.

X-factor

Whether Batbayar converts his 32% combined finishing chance before the bout reaches the decision outcome favored by the model.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Lima: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lima: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 32%.

  • Gemini

    Even — no pick: Batbayar and Lima each win 50%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Lima by decision: 39% (about 39 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lima by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).

  • Gemini

    A tie: Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision, 25% each (about 25 in 100 each).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Lima by decision (39%); 2. Batbayar by submission (18%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (15%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Lima by decision (46%); 2. Batbayar by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Lima by submission (14%)

  • Gemini

    1. Batbayar by submission (25%); 1. Lima by decision (25%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (20%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Lima's 58% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Lima's 68% win chance.

  • Gemini

    No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

How does Batbayar win?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar wins 42%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%, decision 10%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Batbayar wins 32%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 2%.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar wins 50%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%, decision 10%.

How does Lima win?

  • ChatGPT

    Lima wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%, decision 39%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lima wins 68%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 46%.

  • Gemini

    Lima wins 50%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 25%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Lima. Gemini makes no pick.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (39%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (46%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision (25% each).

More questions (17)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 22%, decision 49%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 28%, submission 24%, decision 48%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 30%, decision 35%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32%, against 19% for Lima.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30%, against 22% for Lima.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40%, against 25% for Lima.

Can Batbayar get the finish? Can Lima?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%). Lima: 19% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Lima: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%). Lima: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 4%. Lima is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 18%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Batbayar is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Lima is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%. Lima is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 25%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 50% vs 50%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Batbayar wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    49%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    48%.

  • Gemini

    35%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 20%, Lima 80%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 4%, Lima 96%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 29%, Lima 71%.

Compared with others 4 questions

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (58%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (68%).

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model has it even — no pick.

Which model is most confident on Batbayar, and which on Lima?

  • ChatGPT

    On Batbayar: Gemini (50%). On Lima: Claude (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Lima by decision: from 25% (Gemini) to 46% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    The MMA Guru (Lima by decision), AJ Devito (Lima by decision), Bedtime MMA (Lima by decision), HopperMMA (Lima by decision), Half The Battle (Lima by decision) and FightIQ (Lima by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Lima, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    No.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Lima

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Lima by decision, about 46 in 100

Win chance: Batbayar 32%, Lima 68%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Lima by decision46%
  2. Batbayar by KO/TKO20%
  3. Lima by submission14%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Batbayar 20%, Lima 8%.
  2. Submission: Batbayar 10%, Lima 14%.
  3. Decision: Batbayar 2%, Lima 46%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Claude sees the fight

Andre Lima is the more proven, longer, higher-volume flyweight — 3.94 SLpM, 57% accuracy, 13:30 average fight time, never finished — against Namsrai Batbayar, a debutant whose record is all finishes and who has not been past round two since 2022 (source-7, source-6, source-2). Batbayar's path is fast: hook, drop, back-take, RNC — the sequence Lima's 76% takedown defense and the scramble issues Borjas exposed invite (source-5). If Lima banks the first five minutes, the level-of-competition gap compounds for him. Model's 68% Lima sits near the market's ~71% (source-11), most of it on the cards.

Keys to victory

  • Experience gap: Andre Lima has 5 UFC bouts and 45+ Octagon minutes; Namsrai Batbayar's best wins are Road to UFC level and he has never fought past round two
  • Namsrai Batbayar's finishes are front-loaded — six first-round stoppages, knockdown into back-take RNC — against a man Borjas out-landed and took down
  • Andre Lima's durability and pacing (never finished, 57% accuracy, 59% defense) vs Namsrai Batbayar's 48% striking defense and 3.42 SApM over a long fight

X-factor

Andre Lima's schedule: a 15-month layoff broken in June, now a ~10-week turnaround plus Brazil-to-Shanghai travel — a slow first round is exactly the window Namsrai Batbayar's power needs.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Lima: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lima: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 42%.

  • Gemini

    Even — no pick: Batbayar and Lima each win 50%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Lima by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lima by decision: 39% (about 39 in 100).

  • Gemini

    A tie: Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision, 25% each (about 25 in 100 each).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Lima by decision (46%); 2. Batbayar by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Lima by submission (14%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Lima by decision (39%); 2. Batbayar by submission (18%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Batbayar by submission (25%); 1. Lima by decision (25%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (20%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Lima's 68% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Lima's 58% win chance.

  • Gemini

    No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

How does Batbayar win?

  • Claude

    Batbayar wins 32%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar wins 42%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%, decision 10%.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar wins 50%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%, decision 10%.

How does Lima win?

  • Claude

    Lima wins 68%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 46%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lima wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%, decision 39%.

  • Gemini

    Lima wins 50%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 25%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Lima. Gemini makes no pick.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (46%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (39%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision (25% each).

More questions (18)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 28%, submission 24%, decision 48%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 22%, decision 49%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 30%, decision 35%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30%, against 22% for Lima.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32%, against 19% for Lima.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40%, against 25% for Lima.

Can Batbayar get the finish? Can Lima?

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Lima: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%). Lima: 19% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%).

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%). Lima: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Batbayar is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Lima is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 4%. Lima is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 18%.

  • Gemini

    Batbayar is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%. Lima is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 25%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 50% vs 50%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Batbayar wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    48%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    49%.

  • Gemini

    35%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 4%, Lima 96%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 20%, Lima 80%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 29%, Lima 71%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Lima by decision, 46% here against 32% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Lima by decision, 25% here against 43% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (68%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (58%).

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model has it even — no pick.

Which model is most confident on Batbayar, and which on Lima?

  • Claude

    On Batbayar: Gemini (50%). On Lima: Claude (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Lima by decision: from 25% (Gemini) to 46% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    The MMA Guru (Lima by decision), AJ Devito (Lima by decision), Bedtime MMA (Lima by decision), HopperMMA (Lima by decision), Half The Battle (Lima by decision) and FightIQ (Lima by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Lima, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    No.

  • Gemini

    No.

claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Even — no pick

No confidence level: the model has it even

Most likely: a tie between Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision, about 25 in 100 each

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Batbayar 50%, Lima 50%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Batbayar by submission, tied for number 125%
  2. Lima by decision, tied for number 125%
  3. Lima by KO/TKO20%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Batbayar 15%, Lima 20%.
  2. Submission: Batbayar 25%, Lima 5%.
  3. Decision: Batbayar 10%, Lima 25%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Gemini sees the fight

Batbayar and Lima clash in a classic grappler versus striker flyweight matchup. Batbayar (10-1-0) brings momentum from his Road to UFC win and a 100% finish rate fueled by aggressive grappling. Lima (11-1-0) counters with elite kickboxing, high striking volume, and a BJJ brown belt. This coin-flip bout hinges on Lima's takedown defense. If Lima keeps it standing, his volume can win rounds, but Batbayar's finishing threat remains constantly dangerous. The forecast predicts Namsrai Batbayar to win, favoring his grappling and finish upside.

Keys to victory

  • Batbayar's aggressive wrestling and 100% finish rate
  • Lima's high striking volume and heavy leg kicks
  • Lima's takedown defense determining whether the bout remains on the feet

X-factor

Lima's takedown defense. If he stuffs Batbayar's entries, he dictates the striking exchanges; if not, Batbayar's perfect finishing rate threatens to end the bout on the mat.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Even — no pick: Batbayar and Lima each win 50%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lima: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 42%.

  • Claude

    Lima: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Batbayar: 32%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    A tie: Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision, 25% each (about 25 in 100 each).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lima by decision: 39% (about 39 in 100).

  • Claude

    Lima by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Batbayar by submission (25%); 1. Lima by decision (25%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (20%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Lima by decision (39%); 2. Batbayar by submission (18%); 3. Lima by KO/TKO (15%)

  • Claude

    1. Lima by decision (46%); 2. Batbayar by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Lima by submission (14%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Lima's 58% win chance.

  • Claude

    7 of 10, based on Lima's 68% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 51%. Decision: 49%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 52%. Decision: 48%.

How does Batbayar win?

  • Gemini

    Batbayar wins 50%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%, decision 10%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar wins 42%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%, decision 10%.

  • Claude

    Batbayar wins 32%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 2%.

How does Lima win?

  • Gemini

    Lima wins 50%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 25%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lima wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%, decision 39%.

  • Claude

    Lima wins 68%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%, decision 46%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Lima. Gemini makes no pick.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcomes were Batbayar by submission and Lima by decision (25% each).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (39%).

  • Claude

    Result: Lima by submission in round 3. Lima by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Lima by decision (46%).

More questions (16)

The result 5 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 35%, submission 30%, decision 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 22%, decision 49%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 28%, submission 24%, decision 48%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40%, against 25% for Lima.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32%, against 19% for Lima.

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30%, against 22% for Lima.

Can Batbayar get the finish? Can Lima?

  • Gemini

    Batbayar: 40% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 25%). Lima: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar: 32% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 18%). Lima: 19% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 4%).

  • Claude

    Batbayar: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%). Lima: 22% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 14%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Batbayar is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%. Lima is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 25%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Batbayar is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 4%. Lima is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 18%.

  • Claude

    Batbayar is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 14%. Lima is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 50% vs 50%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    49%.

  • Claude

    48%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 29%, Lima 71%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 20%, Lima 80%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Batbayar 4%, Lima 96%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Lima by decision, 25% here against 43% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Lima by decision, 46% here against 32% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model has it even — no pick.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (58%).

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 0 back Batbayar and 11 back Lima. This model picks Lima (68%).

Which model is most confident on Batbayar, and which on Lima?

  • Gemini

    On Batbayar: Gemini (50%). On Lima: Claude (68%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Lima by decision: from 25% (Gemini) to 46% (Claude).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    No.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yes.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

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Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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