UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Denise Gomes defeats Yan Xiaonan by KO/TKO

Loss Yan Xiaonan 19-6-0
Win Denise Gomes 13-3-0
KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:49

Yan Xiaonan vs Gomes — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Denise Gomes hurt Yan Xiaonan earlier in the opening round, but Yan recovered.

Gomes then landed a lead elbow and precise follow-up shots late in the round to secure the stoppage.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Yan Xiaonan

Yan lands 4.69 significant strikes a minute and has recorded 0.00 submission attempts per 15 — she does not go looking for the mat. Her fights average 15:01 and two have gone five rounds. The route is range, volume, and the scorecards that follow.

Case for Gomes

Gomes has won four in a row and stopped seven of her twelve opponents, and she will do what Yan will not: 1.45 takedowns and 0.72 submission attempts per 15 minutes, against a 65% takedown defence. The number working against her is her own 52% strike defence.

What We Were Watching For

  • Yan has not fought since Virna Jandiroba beat her in April 2025 — sixteen months out. Gomes fought in November and has won four straight.
  • Gomes's 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes against Yan's 65% takedown defence, the lower of the two.
  • Output is close, 4.69 against 4.43 landed a minute. Defence is not: 60% against 52%.
  • Yan averages 15:01 a fight and Gomes 11:30. Ten of Yan's nineteen wins went to the cards; seven of Gomes's twelve ended early.
Records & career stats
Yan Xiaonan vs Gomes
19-5-0
Record
12-3-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
China
Nationality
Brazil
37
Age
26
5′5″165 cm
Height — Yan Xiaonan leads
5′2″157 cm
63″160 cm
Reach
63″160 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
47%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
8
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Yan Xiaonan leads
0
4.67
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Yan Xiaonan leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.40
3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.19
60%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Yan Xiaonan leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
53%
65%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
14:18
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:50

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 25:31 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 23:04 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“So, I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by a decision.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 30:42 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win a close decision on cleaner output and experience at range.

“I'm going to go Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 56:06 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision for her technical striking, footwork, jab, and grappling defence.

“Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 21:49 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision.

“Yan Xiaonan by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 48:36 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win at home.

“I expect her to get the victory here. Yan Xiaonan getting the win.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Yan Xiaonan by decision.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 7:39 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision.

“I'm going to pick her to come out here and win this unanimous decision in China.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yan Xiaonan · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai preview has Jesse Holland picking Xiaonan Yan by decision.

Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).

View full track record (55 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

FightIQ's public record lists Denise Gomes as its pick over Yan Xiaonan.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 63:24 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Denise Gomes by decision, expecting her pressure and body work to slow Yan Xiaonan in a competitive fight.

“My official pick is Gomes by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 27:25 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes · Dec

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Picks Denise Gomes by decision as the younger, improving fighter with power and grappling routes.

“I'm going to take Denise Gomes for the upset.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 15:56 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks takes Denise Gomes as the underdog.

“I think Denise Gomes wins as a dog.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Denise Gomes

Fight result: Denise Gomes · KO/TKO

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Denise Gomes.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Jesse Holland Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.

5 of 14 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Gomes · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability Gemini put 65% on Gomes.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
58% Xiaonan
42% Gomes
PickXiaonan · DecisionActualGomes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
56% Xiaonan
44% Gomes
PickXiaonan · DecisionActualGomes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
35% Xiaonan
65% Gomes
PickGomes · DecisionActualGomes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market underdogHitHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a hit.Historic market underdog: underdog call, hit
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Xiaonan

    Most likely: Xiaonan by decision, about 44 in 100

    Win chance: Xiaonan 58%, Gomes 42%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Xiaonan

    Most likely: Xiaonan by decision, about 41 in 100

    Win chance: Xiaonan 56%, Gomes 44%.

    claude-opus-5 · 23 Aug

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Gomes

    Most likely: Gomes by decision, about 45 in 100

    Win chance: Xiaonan 35%, Gomes 65%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

2 of 3 models pick Xiaonan; 1 of 3 models pick Gomes.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gomes: 42%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Gomes: 44%.

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Xiaonan: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Gomes by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Xiaonan by decision (44%); 2. Gomes by decision (23%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (17%)

  • Claude

    1. Xiaonan by decision (41%); 2. Gomes by decision (22%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (19%)

  • Gemini

    1. Gomes by decision (45%); 2. Xiaonan by decision (29%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (15%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 58% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 56% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Gomes's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

How does Xiaonan win?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan wins 56%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%, decision 41%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%, decision 29%.

How does Gomes win?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 23%.

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Gomes wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 45%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (23%).

  • Claude

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (22%).

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan's most likely upset: Xiaonan by decision (29%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Xiaonan, Claude: Xiaonan, Gemini: Gomes).

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (44%).

  • Claude

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (41%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Gomes by decision (45%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 3%, decision 67%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 63%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 6%, decision 74%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes: 19%, against 14% for Xiaonan.

  • Claude

    Gomes: 22%, against 15% for Xiaonan.

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 20%, against 6% for Xiaonan.

Can Xiaonan get the finish? Can Gomes?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Gomes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 15% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%). Gomes: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan: 6% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%). Gomes: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Gomes is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44%. Gomes by decision: 23%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41%. Gomes by decision: 22%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan by decision: 29%. Gomes by decision: 45%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    67%.

  • Claude

    63%.

  • Gemini

    74%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 66%, Gomes 34%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 65%, Gomes 35%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 39%, Gomes 61%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 23% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 22% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 45% here against 23% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (58%).

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (56%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Gomes (65%).

Which model is most confident on Xiaonan, and which on Gomes?

  • All models

    On Xiaonan: ChatGPT (58%). On Gomes: Gemini (65%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Gomes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Half The Battle (Xiaonan by decision), The MMA Guru (Xiaonan by decision), TheWeasle (Xiaonan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Xiaonan by decision), HopperMMA (Xiaonan by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Xiaonan by decision), Jesse Holland (Xiaonan by decision) and Andrew Richardson (Xiaonan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Xiaonan, most likely by decision.

  • Claude

    Half The Battle (Xiaonan by decision), The MMA Guru (Xiaonan by decision), TheWeasle (Xiaonan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Xiaonan by decision), HopperMMA (Xiaonan by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Xiaonan by decision), Jesse Holland (Xiaonan by decision) and Andrew Richardson (Xiaonan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Xiaonan, most likely by decision.

  • Gemini

    AJ Devito (Gomes by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Gomes by decision) and FightIQ (Gomes by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Gomes, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Xiaonan

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Xiaonan by decision, about 44 in 100

Win chance: Xiaonan 58%, Gomes 42%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Xiaonan by decision44%
  2. Gomes by decision23%
  3. Gomes by KO/TKO17%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Xiaonan 13%, Gomes 17%.
  2. Submission: Xiaonan 1%, Gomes 2%.
  3. Decision: Xiaonan 44%, Gomes 23%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Yan Xiaonan is the slight favorite, most likely by decision. Her superior documented striking defense, height, and high-level UFC experience give her the steadier three-round path, while Denise Gomes' youth, recent four-fight winning streak, greater takedown activity, and finishing profile keep the matchup competitive.

Keys to victory

  • Yan's 60% significant-strike defense compares favorably with Gomes' 51%, despite broadly similar striking output and absorption rates.
  • Yan has faced more elite opposition and owns substantially more UFC and five-round experience.
  • Gomes is approximately 11.5 years younger, has won four straight, and carries the greater recent momentum after Yan's roughly 16.5-month layoff and latest loss.

X-factor

Whether Gomes can turn her youth, pressure, and more frequent takedown offense into sustained control; if she cannot, Yan's cleaner defensive striking and experience are more likely to decide close, a

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gomes: 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Gomes: 44%.

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Xiaonan: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Gomes by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Xiaonan by decision (44%); 2. Gomes by decision (23%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (17%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Xiaonan by decision (41%); 2. Gomes by decision (22%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (19%)

  • Gemini

    1. Gomes by decision (45%); 2. Xiaonan by decision (29%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (15%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 58% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 56% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Gomes's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

How does Xiaonan win?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Xiaonan wins 56%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%, decision 41%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%, decision 29%.

How does Gomes win?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 23%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Gomes wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 45%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (23%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (22%).

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan's most likely upset: Xiaonan by decision (29%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Xiaonan, Claude: Xiaonan, Gemini: Gomes).

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (44%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (41%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Gomes by decision (45%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 3%, decision 67%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 63%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 6%, decision 74%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes: 19%, against 14% for Xiaonan.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Gomes: 22%, against 15% for Xiaonan.

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 20%, against 6% for Xiaonan.

Can Xiaonan get the finish? Can Gomes?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Gomes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 15% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%). Gomes: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan: 6% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%). Gomes: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Gomes is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44%. Gomes by decision: 23%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41%. Gomes by decision: 22%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan by decision: 29%. Gomes by decision: 45%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    67%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    63%.

  • Gemini

    74%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 66%, Gomes 34%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 65%, Gomes 35%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 39%, Gomes 61%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 23% here against 34% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 22% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 45% here against 23% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (58%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (56%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Gomes (65%).

Which model is most confident on Xiaonan, and which on Gomes?

  • ChatGPT

    On Xiaonan: ChatGPT (58%). On Gomes: Gemini (65%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Half The Battle (Xiaonan by decision), The MMA Guru (Xiaonan by decision), TheWeasle (Xiaonan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Xiaonan by decision), HopperMMA (Xiaonan by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Xiaonan by decision), Jesse Holland (Xiaonan by decision) and Andrew Richardson (Xiaonan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Xiaonan, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    AJ Devito (Gomes by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Gomes by decision) and FightIQ (Gomes by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Gomes, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Xiaonan

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Xiaonan by decision, about 41 in 100

Win chance: Xiaonan 56%, Gomes 44%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Xiaonan by decision41%
  2. Gomes by decision22%
  3. Gomes by KO/TKO19%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Xiaonan 13%, Gomes 19%.
  2. Submission: Xiaonan 2%, Gomes 3%.
  3. Decision: Xiaonan 41%, Gomes 22%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Claude sees the fight

Yan Xiaonan by decision is the modal outcome (~41%). She is the longer, higher-volume Sanda striker (4.69 sig/min, 60% striking defense) facing a 52% striking defense, and she beat Angela Hill, who out-paced and clinch-controlled Gomes (source-5, source-6, source-13). Offsetting: Yan is 37 off a 16.5-month layoff with 0% takedown accuracy and 65% TDD, while Gomes at 26 is 4-0 with real knockdown power and new wrestling (source-2, source-9, source-18). Three rounds compress Yan's grind-out edge. Yan ~56% / Gomes ~44%, in line with the ~-157 market (source-15).

Keys to victory

  • Yan's volume/technical striking and elite-opposition resume vs. Gomes' porous 52% striking defense (source-5, source-6)
  • Yan's 16.5-month layoff at 37 after a shutout loss to Jandiroba, unexplained in public reporting (source-2, source-9)
  • Gomes' knockdown rate plus emerging takedown/clinch game aimed at Yan's 65% TDD and zero offensive wrestling (source-6, source-18)

X-factor

Ring rust: if Yan's timing and cardio decayed over 16.5 months, Gomes' overhand and new trip-takedown game can steal or finish a round in a three-rounder where one bad frame is decisive.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Gomes: 44%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gomes: 42%.

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Xiaonan: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Gomes by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Xiaonan by decision (41%); 2. Gomes by decision (22%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (19%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Xiaonan by decision (44%); 2. Gomes by decision (23%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (17%)

  • Gemini

    1. Gomes by decision (45%); 2. Xiaonan by decision (29%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (15%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 56% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 58% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Gomes's 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

How does Xiaonan win?

  • Claude

    Xiaonan wins 56%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%, decision 41%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%, decision 29%.

How does Gomes win?

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 23%.

  • Gemini

    Gomes wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 45%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (22%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (23%).

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan's most likely upset: Xiaonan by decision (29%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Xiaonan, Claude: Xiaonan, Gemini: Gomes).

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (41%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (44%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Gomes by decision (45%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 63%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 3%, decision 67%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 6%, decision 74%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Gomes: 22%, against 15% for Xiaonan.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes: 19%, against 14% for Xiaonan.

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 20%, against 6% for Xiaonan.

Can Xiaonan get the finish? Can Gomes?

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 15% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%). Gomes: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Gomes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan: 6% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%). Gomes: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Gomes is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41%. Gomes by decision: 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44%. Gomes by decision: 23%.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan by decision: 29%. Gomes by decision: 45%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    63%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    67%.

  • Gemini

    74%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 65%, Gomes 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 66%, Gomes 34%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 39%, Gomes 61%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 22% here against 34% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 23% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 45% here against 23% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (56%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (58%).

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Gomes (65%).

Which model is most confident on Xiaonan, and which on Gomes?

  • Claude

    On Xiaonan: ChatGPT (58%). On Gomes: Gemini (65%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Gomes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    Half The Battle (Xiaonan by decision), The MMA Guru (Xiaonan by decision), TheWeasle (Xiaonan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Xiaonan by decision), HopperMMA (Xiaonan by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Xiaonan by decision), Jesse Holland (Xiaonan by decision) and Andrew Richardson (Xiaonan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Xiaonan, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    AJ Devito (Gomes by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Gomes by decision) and FightIQ (Gomes by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Gomes, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-opus-5 · 23 Aug61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Gomes

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Gomes by decision, about 45 in 100

Win chance: Xiaonan 35%, Gomes 65%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Gomes by decision45%
  2. Xiaonan by decision29%
  3. Gomes by KO/TKO15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Xiaonan 5%, Gomes 15%.
  2. Submission: Xiaonan 1%, Gomes 5%.
  3. Decision: Xiaonan 29%, Gomes 45%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Gemini sees the fight

While Yan Xiaonan brings extensive top-tier experience and a high-volume striking attack to her home country, Denise Gomes's significant youth advantage and more varied offensive arsenal give her the edge. Gomes's power and willingness to mix in grappling should allow her to win rounds against the 37-year-old veteran in a competitive bout that likely goes the distance.

Keys to victory

  • Gomes possesses a substantial 11-year youth advantage (26 vs 37), which is a critical factor in the women's strawweight division.
  • Yan relies on high-volume Sanda striking and experience, whereas Gomes possesses strong power and is more willing to mix in takedown threats.
  • Yan holds a significant edge in high-level UFC experience and will benefit from a hometown crowd advantage in China.

X-factor

Gomes's ability to utilize her grappling to disrupt Yan's striking rhythm versus Yan's ability to maintain her high-volume output and manage distance over three rounds.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Xiaonan: 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gomes: 42%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Gomes: 44%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Gomes by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41% (about 41 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Gomes by decision (45%); 2. Xiaonan by decision (29%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (15%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Xiaonan by decision (44%); 2. Gomes by decision (23%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (17%)

  • Claude

    1. Xiaonan by decision (41%); 2. Gomes by decision (22%); 3. Gomes by KO/TKO (19%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Gomes's 65% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 58% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Xiaonan's 56% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 26%. Decision: 74%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

How does Xiaonan win?

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%, decision 29%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 44%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan wins 56%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%, decision 41%.

How does Gomes win?

  • Gemini

    Gomes wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%, decision 45%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%, decision 23%.

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan's most likely upset: Xiaonan by decision (29%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (23%).

  • Claude

    Gomes's most likely upset: Gomes by decision (22%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Xiaonan, Claude: Xiaonan, Gemini: Gomes).

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Gomes by decision (45%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (44%).

  • Claude

    Result: Gomes by KO/TKO in round 1. Gomes by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Xiaonan by decision (41%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 6%, decision 74%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 30%, submission 3%, decision 67%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 63%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Gomes: 20%, against 6% for Xiaonan.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes: 19%, against 14% for Xiaonan.

  • Claude

    Gomes: 22%, against 15% for Xiaonan.

Can Xiaonan get the finish? Can Gomes?

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan: 6% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%). Gomes: 20% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Gomes: 19% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 2%).

  • Claude

    Xiaonan: 15% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 2%). Gomes: 22% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 5%. Gomes is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 2%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 3%. Gomes is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan by decision: 29%. Gomes by decision: 45%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Xiaonan by decision: 44%. Gomes by decision: 23%.

  • Claude

    Xiaonan by decision: 41%. Gomes by decision: 22%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Xiaonan wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Gomes wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Gomes wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    74%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    67%.

  • Claude

    63%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 39%, Gomes 61%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 66%, Gomes 34%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Xiaonan 65%, Gomes 35%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 45% here against 23% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 23% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Gomes by decision, 22% here against 34% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Gomes (65%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (58%).

  • Claude

    Of 14 analyst picks, 9 back Xiaonan and 5 back Gomes. This model picks Xiaonan (56%).

Which model is most confident on Xiaonan, and which on Gomes?

  • Gemini

    On Xiaonan: ChatGPT (58%). On Gomes: Gemini (65%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Gomes by decision: from 22% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    AJ Devito (Gomes by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Gomes by decision) and FightIQ (Gomes by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Gomes, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Half The Battle (Xiaonan by decision), The MMA Guru (Xiaonan by decision), TheWeasle (Xiaonan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Xiaonan by decision), HopperMMA (Xiaonan by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Xiaonan by decision), Jesse Holland (Xiaonan by decision) and Andrew Richardson (Xiaonan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Xiaonan, most likely by decision.

  • Claude

    Half The Battle (Xiaonan by decision), The MMA Guru (Xiaonan by decision), TheWeasle (Xiaonan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Xiaonan by decision), HopperMMA (Xiaonan by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Xiaonan by decision), Jesse Holland (Xiaonan by decision) and Andrew Richardson (Xiaonan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Xiaonan, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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