UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Sean Woodson defeats Jack Jenkins by split decision

Loss Jack Jenkins 14-5-0
Win Sean Woodson 14-2-1
Split decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Jenkins vs Woodson — Featherweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Woodson won two judges' scorecards 29-28, while Jenkins won the third 29-28.

The bout took place at Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China, on August 29, 2026.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Jenkins

Jenkins shoots — 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes — and lands 4.48 significant strikes a minute while giving up 2.95. Nine of his fourteen wins ended early. The weakness his record names is the neck: three of his four defeats are submissions.

Case for Woodson

Woodson gives up nothing at range and has 25 centimetres of it to give: 198 cm of reach against 173, 5.57 significant strikes landed a minute, and 85% takedown defence. He also absorbs 4.18 a minute and has taken eight of his sixteen fights to the judges.

What We Were Watching For

  • A 25-centimetre reach difference — Woodson at 198 cm, Jenkins at 173.
  • Jenkins's 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes against Woodson's 85% takedown defence.
  • Three of Jenkins's four career defeats are submissions. Woodson has one.
  • Woodson has not fought since Dan Ige stopped him in April 2025; Jenkins last fought that September.
Records & career stats
Jenkins vs Woodson
Jenkins Woodson
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.25 5.39
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 58% 59%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.08 4.04
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 74% 86%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 64% 36%
14-4-0
Record
13-2-1
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Australia
Nationality
United States
31
Age
32
5′7″170 cm
Height — Woodson leads
6′2″189 cm
68″173 cm
Reach — Woodson leads
78″198 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
64%
Finish rateFinish % — Jenkins leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
36%
6
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Jenkins leads
4
3
Wins by submissionSub wins — Jenkins leads
1
4.25
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Woodson leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.39
3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Jenkins leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.04
58%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
74%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Woodson leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
86%
13:13
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:06
Absolute Mixed Martial Arts
Team
Legacy MMS

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 10:21 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO while acknowledging a decision remains possible.

“I'm going to say Jack Jenkins by TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 12:17 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · KO/TKO

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by TKO without a stated round.

“I'm going to go with Jenkins by TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 19:54 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by decision in a close matchup, citing his damaging leg kicks.

“Jack Jenkins by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 23:10 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins by decision, noting routes through leg kicks, power, and grappling.

“I'm going to take Jack Jenkins for the upset.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 16:21 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins, pointing to Sean Woodson's vulnerable legs.

“I'm picking Jack Jenkins.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 29:45 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Jack Jenkins

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Jack Jenkins for an upset through his leg kicks and game plan.

“I'm going to pick Jack Jenkins to upset Shawn Woodson.”

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 9:36 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“I'm going Shawn Woodson by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).

View full track record (163 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

FightIQ's public record lists Sean Woodson as its pick over Jack Jenkins.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 23:14 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson on his substantial height and reach advantage, expecting him to control the striking from distance.

“Shawn Woodson to go out and get it done. That is going to be my pick for this matchup.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:43 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“I'm going to go Sean Woodson by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 22:50 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Sean Woodson · Dec

Fight result: Sean Woodson · Decision

Picks Sean Woodson by decision.

“Sean Woodson by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Miss.

5 of 11 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Woodson · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT put 59% on Woodson.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
41% Jenkins
59% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
46% Jenkins
54% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
45% Jenkins
55% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Woodson

    Most likely: Woodson by decision, about 42 in 100

    Win chance: Jenkins 41%, Woodson 59%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Woodson

    Most likely: Woodson by decision, about 33 in 100

    Win chance: Jenkins 46%, Woodson 54%.

    claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug

    Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Woodson

    Most likely: Woodson by decision, about 35 in 100

    Win chance: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

3 of 3 models pick Woodson.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 41%.

  • Claude

    Woodson: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 46%.

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 45%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).

  • Claude

    Woodson by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Woodson by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Woodson by decision (42%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (16%)

  • Claude

    1. Woodson by decision (33%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (18%)

  • Gemini

    1. Woodson by decision (35%); 2. Jenkins by decision (28%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (17%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 59% win chance.

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Woodson's 54% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 55% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

How does Jenkins win?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 27%.

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 27%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

How does Woodson win?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson wins 59%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%, decision 42%.

  • Claude

    Woodson wins 54%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

  • Gemini

    Woodson wins 55%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%, decision 35%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (27%).

  • Claude

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (27%).

  • Gemini

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (28%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Woodson.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • All models

    Result: Woodson by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    42% (about 42 in 100).

  • Claude

    33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Gemini

    35% (about 35 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 69%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 6%, decision 60%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 8%, decision 63%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 17%, against 14% for Jenkins.

  • Claude

    Woodson: 21%, against 19% for Jenkins.

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 20%, against 17% for Jenkins.

Can Jenkins get the finish? Can Woodson?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%). Woodson: 17% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Jenkins: 19% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%). Woodson: 21% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    Jenkins: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Woodson: 20% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 1%. Woodson is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%.

  • Claude

    Jenkins is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 46%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 42%.

  • Claude

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 33%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins by decision: 28%. Woodson by decision: 35%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    69%.

  • Claude

    60%.

  • Gemini

    63%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 39%, Woodson 61%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 44%, Woodson 56%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 42% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 33% here against 39% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 35% here against 38% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (59%).

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (54%).

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (55%).

Which model is most confident on Jenkins, and which on Woodson?

  • All models

    On Jenkins: Claude (46%). On Woodson: ChatGPT (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Woodson by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 42% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • All models

    TheWeasle (Woodson by decision), MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) (Woodson by decision), HopperMMA (Woodson by decision) and FightIQ (Woodson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Woodson, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 42%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Woodson

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Woodson by decision, about 42 in 100

Win chance: Jenkins 41%, Woodson 59%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Woodson by decision42%
  2. Jenkins by decision27%
  3. Woodson by KO/TKO16%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Jenkins 10%, Woodson 16%.
  2. Submission: Jenkins 4%, Woodson 1%.
  3. Decision: Jenkins 27%, Woodson 42%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Sean Woodson is the 59% pick over Jack Jenkins, with a Woodson decision the most likely single outcome at 42%. The locked distribution favors a fight reaching the scorecards, so no finish round is predicted.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Woodson a 59% overall win probability compared with Jenkins' 41%.
  • Woodson by decision is the leading individual outcome at 42%.
  • The combined decision probability is 69%, making a scorecard result the model's clearest expectation.

X-factor

Jenkins' 31% combined chance of a knockout, submission, or decision win leaves a meaningful upset path despite Woodson's model edge.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 41%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Woodson: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 46%.

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 45%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Woodson by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Woodson by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Woodson by decision (42%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (16%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Woodson by decision (33%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (18%)

  • Gemini

    1. Woodson by decision (35%); 2. Jenkins by decision (28%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (17%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 59% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Woodson's 54% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 55% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

How does Jenkins win?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 27%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 27%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

How does Woodson win?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson wins 59%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%, decision 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Woodson wins 54%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

  • Gemini

    Woodson wins 55%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%, decision 35%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (27%).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (28%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Woodson.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Woodson by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    42% (about 42 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Gemini

    35% (about 35 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 69%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 6%, decision 60%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 8%, decision 63%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 17%, against 14% for Jenkins.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Woodson: 21%, against 19% for Jenkins.

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 20%, against 17% for Jenkins.

Can Jenkins get the finish? Can Woodson?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%). Woodson: 17% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Jenkins: 19% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%). Woodson: 21% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    Jenkins: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Woodson: 20% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 1%. Woodson is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Jenkins is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 46%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 42%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 33%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins by decision: 28%. Woodson by decision: 35%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    69%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    60%.

  • Gemini

    63%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 39%, Woodson 61%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 44%, Woodson 56%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 42% here against 34% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 33% here against 39% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 35% here against 38% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (59%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (54%).

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (55%).

Which model is most confident on Jenkins, and which on Woodson?

  • ChatGPT

    On Jenkins: Claude (46%). On Woodson: ChatGPT (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 42% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    TheWeasle (Woodson by decision), MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) (Woodson by decision), HopperMMA (Woodson by decision) and FightIQ (Woodson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Woodson, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 42%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Woodson

Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Woodson by decision, about 33 in 100

Win chance: Jenkins 46%, Woodson 54%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Woodson by decision33%
  2. Jenkins by decision27%
  3. Woodson by KO/TKO18%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Jenkins 16%, Woodson 18%.
  2. Submission: Jenkins 3%, Woodson 3%.
  3. Decision: Jenkins 27%, Woodson 33%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Claude sees the fight

Length versus pressure. Sean Woodson is a modest favorite (about -149/-164; Jack Jenkins drifted +105 to +118/+128). Woodson's jab-and-move range game and 85% takedown defense blunt Jenkins' weakest tool (20% takedown accuracy). Jenkins answers with 61% striking accuracy, lower absorption (2.95/min) and the body/leg-kick attrition that beat Ramon Taveras. I shade slightly off the line toward Jenkins on efficiency, Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff and age 34, and the travel split (Jenkins a 2-hour shift, Woodson 13). Decision remains the modal outcome in the locked distribution.

Keys to victory

  • 10-inch reach gap (68 vs 78) sets the range; Jack Jenkins' 20% takedown accuracy against Sean Woodson's 85% takedown defense removes the clinch equalizer
  • Sean Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff (last fought Apr 2025) at age 34 plus a 13-hour zone shift, against Jack Jenkins' 2-hour trip from Australia
  • Sean Woodson absorbs 4.18 strikes/min; opponents who closed the gap got results: Saldana knockdowns, Ige R3 TKO, Erosa submission, the Jack Jenkins template

X-factor

Distance control: the cause of Sean Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff is unreported, so if his range management slips at all, Jack Jenkins' close-range accumulation becomes the live path to a finish.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Woodson: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 46%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 41%.

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 45%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Woodson by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Woodson by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Woodson by decision (33%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (18%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Woodson by decision (42%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (16%)

  • Gemini

    1. Woodson by decision (35%); 2. Jenkins by decision (28%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (17%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Woodson's 54% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 59% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 55% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

How does Jenkins win?

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 27%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

How does Woodson win?

  • Claude

    Woodson wins 54%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson wins 59%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%, decision 42%.

  • Gemini

    Woodson wins 55%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%, decision 35%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (27%).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (28%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Woodson.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Woodson by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    33% (about 33 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    42% (about 42 in 100).

  • Gemini

    35% (about 35 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 6%, decision 60%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 69%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 8%, decision 63%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Woodson: 21%, against 19% for Jenkins.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 17%, against 14% for Jenkins.

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 20%, against 17% for Jenkins.

Can Jenkins get the finish? Can Woodson?

  • Claude

    Jenkins: 19% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%). Woodson: 21% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%). Woodson: 17% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%).

  • Gemini

    Jenkins: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Woodson: 20% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Jenkins is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 1%. Woodson is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 46%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 33%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 42%.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins by decision: 28%. Woodson by decision: 35%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    60%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    69%.

  • Gemini

    63%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 39%, Woodson 61%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 44%, Woodson 56%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 33% here against 39% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 42% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 35% here against 38% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (54%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (59%).

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (55%).

Which model is most confident on Jenkins, and which on Woodson?

  • Claude

    On Jenkins: Claude (46%). On Woodson: ChatGPT (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Woodson by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 42% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    TheWeasle (Woodson by decision), MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) (Woodson by decision), HopperMMA (Woodson by decision) and FightIQ (Woodson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Woodson, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 42%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Woodson

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Woodson by decision, about 35 in 100

Win chance: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Woodson by decision35%
  2. Jenkins by decision28%
  3. Woodson by KO/TKO17%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Jenkins 12%, Woodson 17%.
  2. Submission: Jenkins 5%, Woodson 3%.
  3. Decision: Jenkins 28%, Woodson 35%.

AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard

How Gemini sees the fight

Sean Woodson's massive 10-inch reach and 7-inch height advantages present a difficult puzzle for Jack Jenkins. While Jenkins possesses the heavy calf kicks and wrestling capabilities (1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes) necessary to close the distance and ground the fight, Woodson's technical out-fighting and intercepting knees will make entries perilous. Expect Woodson to manage the range effectively with his jab and linear strikes, frustrating Jenkins on the outside to secure a competitive decision victory.

Keys to victory

  • Woodson possesses a drastic physical advantage, boasting a 7-inch height and 10-inch reach discrepancy over Jenkins.
  • Jenkins must utilize his heavy calf kicks to compromise Woodson's movement and help bridge the vast striking distance.
  • Jenkins averages 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, offering a clear grappling path to bypass Woodson's outside striking.

X-factor

Jenkins' ability to safely navigate Woodson's intercepting step-in knees when attempting to enter the pocket or shoot for takedowns.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 45%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 41%.

  • Claude

    Woodson: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Jenkins: 46%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Woodson by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).

  • Claude

    Woodson by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Woodson by decision (35%); 2. Jenkins by decision (28%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (17%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Woodson by decision (42%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (16%)

  • Claude

    1. Woodson by decision (33%); 2. Jenkins by decision (27%); 3. Woodson by KO/TKO (18%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 55% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Woodson's 59% win chance.

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Woodson's 54% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

How does Jenkins win?

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 28%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 27%.

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 27%.

How does Woodson win?

  • Gemini

    Woodson wins 55%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%, decision 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson wins 59%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%, decision 42%.

  • Claude

    Woodson wins 54%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%, decision 33%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (28%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (27%).

  • Claude

    Jenkins's most likely upset: Jenkins by decision (27%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Woodson.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Woodson by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    35% (about 35 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    42% (about 42 in 100).

  • Claude

    33% (about 33 in 100).

More questions (20)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 29%, submission 8%, decision 63%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 69%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 6%, decision 60%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Woodson: 20%, against 17% for Jenkins.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Woodson: 17%, against 14% for Jenkins.

  • Claude

    Woodson: 21%, against 19% for Jenkins.

Can Jenkins get the finish? Can Woodson?

  • Gemini

    Jenkins: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Woodson: 20% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%). Woodson: 17% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Jenkins: 19% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%). Woodson: 21% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Jenkins is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 1%. Woodson is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%.

  • Claude

    Jenkins is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 3%. Woodson is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 46%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Jenkins by decision: 28%. Woodson by decision: 35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 42%.

  • Claude

    Jenkins by decision: 27%. Woodson by decision: 33%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Jenkins wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Jenkins wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Jenkins wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    63%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    69%.

  • Claude

    60%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 44%, Woodson 56%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 39%, Woodson 61%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Jenkins 45%, Woodson 55%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 35% here against 38% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 42% here against 34% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Woodson by decision, 33% here against 39% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (55%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (59%).

  • Claude

    Of 11 analyst picks, 6 back Jenkins and 5 back Woodson. This model picks Woodson (54%).

Which model is most confident on Jenkins, and which on Woodson?

  • Gemini

    On Jenkins: Claude (46%). On Woodson: ChatGPT (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Woodson by decision: from 33% (Claude) to 42% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    TheWeasle (Woodson by decision), MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) (Woodson by decision), HopperMMA (Woodson by decision) and FightIQ (Woodson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Woodson, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 24 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 42%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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