Final · 29 Aug 2026

Woodson def. Jenkins

Dec · split

Jenkins vs Woodson — Featherweight · Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Jenkins (14-4-0) vs Woodson (13-2-1)

Featherweight
3 rounds
Preliminary Card
Nurmagomedov vs. Song • 29 Aug 2026
Shanghai, China

Result verified. Full fight recap pending source verification.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Analyst picks: TheWeasle Hit; AJ Hit; MMAPREDICTIONGURU Hit; HopperoMMA Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; We Want Picks Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Half The Battle Miss.

All 10 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results10 scored · 4 hits · 6 misses
Predicted byPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Woodson · DecWoodson · DecHitHitNot called
Woodson · to winWoodson · DecHitNot calledNot called
Woodson · DecWoodson · DecHitHitNot called
Woodson · DecWoodson · DecHitHitNot called
Jenkins · KO/TKOWoodson · DecMissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jenkins · KO/TKOWoodson · DecMissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jenkins · DecWoodson · DecMissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jenkins · to winWoodson · DecMissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jenkins · DecWoodson · DecMissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jenkins · to winWoodson · DecMissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

4 of 10 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions — Results

Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Woodson · Decision

Closest probability ChatGPT put 59% on Woodson.

ChatGPT13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
41% Jenkins
59% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
Claude11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
46% Jenkins
54% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
Gemini13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
45% Jenkins
55% Woodson
PickWoodson · DecisionActualWoodson · Decision
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
Jenkins vs Woodson
14-4-0
Record
13-2-1
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
31
Age
32
1.70 m
Height — Woodson leads
1.89 m
173 cm
Reach — Woodson leads
198 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
—
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
6
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Jenkins leads
4
3
Wins by submissionSub wins — Jenkins leads
1
4.48
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / min — Woodson leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.57
2.95
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Jenkins leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.18
59%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
72%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Woodson leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
85%
12:58
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:50
Australia
Nationality
United States

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Jenkins

Jenkins shoots — 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes — and lands 4.48 significant strikes a minute while giving up 2.95. Nine of his fourteen wins ended early. The weakness his record names is the neck: three of his four defeats are submissions.

Case for Woodson

Woodson gives up nothing at range and has 25 centimetres of it to give: 198 cm of reach against 173, 5.57 significant strikes landed a minute, and 85% takedown defence. He also absorbs 4.18 a minute and has taken eight of his sixteen fights to the judges.

What We Were Watching For

  • A 25-centimetre reach difference — Woodson at 198 cm, Jenkins at 173.
  • Jenkins's 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes against Woodson's 85% takedown defence.
  • Three of Jenkins's four career defeats are submissions. Woodson has one.
  • Woodson has not fought since Dan Ige stopped him in April 2025; Jenkins last fought that September.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

The Read

Latest snapshot · T-7

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

ChatGPT
41% 59%
Claude
46% 54%
Gemini
45% 55%

3 of 3 models favour Woodson. The combined forecast puts 64% on Decision as the likeliest finish.

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Sean Woodson is the 59% pick over Jack Jenkins, with a Woodson decision the most likely single outcome at 42%. The locked distribution favors a fight reaching the scorecards, so no finish round is predicted.”

What to watch

  • The locked distribution gives Woodson a 59% overall win probability compared with Jenkins' 41%.
  • Woodson by decision is the leading individual outcome at 42%.
  • The combined decision probability is 69%, making a scorecard result the model's clearest expectation.

Swing factor

Jenkins' 31% combined chance of a knockout, submission, or decision win leaves a meaningful upset path despite Woodson's model edge.

Where the models differ

The models differ on confidence. The full model calls are below.

  • ChatGPTWoodson · Decision · medium confidence
  • ClaudeWoodson · Decision · low confidence
  • GeminiWoodson · Decision · low confidence

Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Woodson.

Method outlook KO/TKO 30% · Submission 6% · Decision 64%.

Model spread 41%–46% Jenkins · 54%–59% Woodson.

Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

ChatGPT

gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

41% Jenkins
59% Woodson

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

10%
16%
26% · KO/TKO: Jenkins 10%, Woodson 16%
4%
1%
5% · Submission: Jenkins 4%, Woodson 1%
27%
42%
69% · Decision: Jenkins 27%, Woodson 42%

Pick

Sean Woodson

Decisionmedium · ●●○

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Sean Woodson is the 59% pick over Jack Jenkins, with a Woodson decision the most likely single outcome at 42%. The locked distribution favors a fight reaching the scorecards, so no finish round is predicted.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Woodson a 59% overall win probability compared with Jenkins' 41%.
  • Woodson by decision is the leading individual outcome at 42%.
  • The combined decision probability is 69%, making a scorecard result the model's clearest expectation.

X-factor

Jenkins' 31% combined chance of a knockout, submission, or decision win leaves a meaningful upset path despite Woodson's model edge.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

Claude

claude-opus-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

46% Jenkins
54% Woodson

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

16%
18%
34% · KO/TKO: Jenkins 16%, Woodson 18%
3%
3%
6% · Submission: Jenkins 3%, Woodson 3%
27%
33%
60% · Decision: Jenkins 27%, Woodson 33%

Pick

Sean Woodson

Decisionlow · ●○○

How Claude sees the fight

Length versus pressure. Sean Woodson is a modest favorite (about -149/-164; Jack Jenkins drifted +105 to +118/+128). Woodson's jab-and-move range game and 85% takedown defense blunt Jenkins' weakest tool (20% takedown accuracy). Jenkins answers with 61% striking accuracy, lower absorption (2.95/min) and the body/leg-kick attrition that beat Ramon Taveras. I shade slightly off the line toward Jenkins on efficiency, Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff and age 34, and the travel split (Jenkins a 2-hour shift, Woodson 13). Decision remains the modal outcome in the locked distribution.

Keys to victory

  • 10-inch reach gap (68 vs 78) sets the range; Jack Jenkins' 20% takedown accuracy against Sean Woodson's 85% takedown defense removes the clinch equalizer
  • Sean Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff (last fought Apr 2025) at age 34 plus a 13-hour zone shift, against Jack Jenkins' 2-hour trip from Australia
  • Sean Woodson absorbs 4.18 strikes/min; opponents who closed the gap got results: Saldana knockdowns, Ige R3 TKO, Erosa submission, the Jack Jenkins template

X-factor

Distance control: the cause of Sean Woodson's ~16.5-month layoff is unreported, so if his range management slips at all, Jack Jenkins' close-range accumulation becomes the live path to a finish.

11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent

Gemini

gemini-3.1-pro-high · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

45% Jenkins
55% Woodson

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

12%
17%
29% · KO/TKO: Jenkins 12%, Woodson 17%
5%
3%
8% · Submission: Jenkins 5%, Woodson 3%
28%
35%
63% · Decision: Jenkins 28%, Woodson 35%

Pick

Sean Woodson

Decisionlow · ●○○

How Gemini sees the fight

Sean Woodson's massive 10-inch reach and 7-inch height advantages present a difficult puzzle for Jack Jenkins. While Jenkins possesses the heavy calf kicks and wrestling capabilities (1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes) necessary to close the distance and ground the fight, Woodson's technical out-fighting and intercepting knees will make entries perilous. Expect Woodson to manage the range effectively with his jab and linear strikes, frustrating Jenkins on the outside to secure a competitive decision victory.

Keys to victory

  • Woodson possesses a drastic physical advantage, boasting a 7-inch height and 10-inch reach discrepancy over Jenkins.
  • Jenkins must utilize his heavy calf kicks to compromise Woodson's movement and help bridge the vast striking distance.
  • Jenkins averages 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, offering a clear grappling path to bypass Woodson's outside striking.

X-factor

Jenkins' ability to safely navigate Woodson's intercepting step-in knees when attempting to enter the pocket or shoot for takedowns.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Fight News

Fighters

Jack Jenkins
14-4-0 · Featherweight
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Sean Woodson
13-2-1 · Featherweight
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