Nelson def. Meng
Dec · unanimous
Meng vs Nelson — Welterweight · Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Result verified. Full fight recap pending source verification.
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Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: The MMA Guru Hit; TheWeasle Hit; HopperoMMA Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; AJ Miss; MMAPREDICTIONGURU Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss.
All 10 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results10 scored · 6 hits · 4 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson · to win | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Cam Nelson as an underdog without a stated method. “I'm going to go with Cam Nelson getting this one done over Ding Mang.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks. | |||||
| Nelson · Sub · R2 | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Picks Cam Nelson by second-round submission. “Cam Nelson is going to get the win by submission in the second round.” Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks. | |||||
| Nelson · Dec | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Cam Nelson by decision. “I'm going to go Cam Nelson by decision.” Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks. | |||||
| Nelson · Dec | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Picks Cam Nelson by decision for his grappling control and ground-and-pound. “Cam Nelson gets it done 29 to 28 on the cards.” Track record: winner called in 60 of 90 resolved picks. | |||||
| Nelson · to win | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Cam Nelson to counter Ding Meng's pressure with wrestling and control. “Cam Nelson is the pick.” Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks. | |||||
| Nelson · to win | Nelson · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Cam Nelson on the strength of his hands and power against Ding Meng's defence. “I'm actually going to take Cam Nelson.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Meng · KO/TKO | Nelson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ding Meng’s experience, kickboxing and home-country conditions to carry him to a knockout. “Ding Meng for the win. We'll say knockout, but decision is live, too.” * Says a decision remains live. Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Meng · Dec | Nelson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ding Meng's experience to carry him to a decision. “For my prediction, I'm going to take Ming Ding to win via decision here.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. | |||||
| Meng · KO/TKO | Nelson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ding Meng for a knockout, placing it around the round-one/round-two boundary. “I'm going to go with Ding Mang to win, probably by knockout. Late first, early second.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks. | |||||
| Meng · to win | Nelson · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Ding Meng for his first UFC win on experience. Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks. | |||||
6 of 10 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 35-10-0
- Record
- 7-1-0
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- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Not published
- Reach
- Not published
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- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
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- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
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- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- China
- Nationality
- Canada
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Meng
Forty-five professional fights and twenty-eight knockouts: Ding Meng has finished thirty of his thirty-five wins, and only nine of his bouts have ever reached the judges. The seam is underneath him — four of his ten defeats are submissions.
Case for Nelson
Nelson is eight fights into a career and four of his seven wins are submissions, which is precisely how Ding Meng has lost four times. He has won four straight and has never been finished, by anyone, in any way.
What We Were Watching For
- Forty-five fights against eight — Ding Meng has competed more than five times as often as Nelson.
- Twenty-eight of Ding Meng's thirty-five wins are knockouts; four of Nelson's seven are submissions.
- Four of Ding Meng's ten defeats are submissions, and submissions are what Nelson does.
- Nelson has won four straight and has never been stopped; Ding Meng has been stopped twice by strikes.
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