UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Liu Ce defeats Levi Rodrigues Jr. by KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:26
Liu Ce vs Rodrigues Jr. — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Liu Ce and Levi Rodrigues Jr. traded shots in range from the opening bell, with Liu hurting Rodrigues repeatedly.
As both continued swinging late in the first round, Liu landed a heavy right hand that sent Rodrigues to the canvas for the knockout.
- Primary sourceOfficial UFC source
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Liu Ce
Liu Ce has had four professional fights and every one ended in strikes — three wins by TKO and the single loss the same way. His longest night finished at 1:55 of the second round. He arrives 3-1 with nothing on the record that shows what he does after that.
Case for Rodrigues Jr.
Rodrigues Jr. has never seen a scorecard either: five knockouts, one knockout loss and a no contest across seven fights, at a 100% finish rate. Six weeks ago Felipe Franco stopped him in the second round on his UFC debut, which is the newest fact in this bout and the least comfortable.
What We Were Watching For
- Not one of their fights has reached a judge — Liu Ce is 3-1, Rodrigues Jr. 5-1 with a no contest.
- Liu Ce's longest fight lasted 6:55. Rodrigues Jr.'s longest reached 21 seconds into a third round, on an injury stoppage.
- Both men's only defeats are second-round TKOs: Liu Ce to Ivan Gnizditskiy in October 2024, Rodrigues Jr. to Felipe Franco in July.
- This is Liu Ce's first UFC fight. Rodrigues Jr.'s one previous UFC appearance is also his only professional loss.
Records & career stats
- 13.31 3.74
- 51% 29%
- 6.32 7.27
- 100% 57%
- 100% 100%
- 3-1-0
- Record
- 5-1-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-1-1 last 5
- China
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 29
- Age
- 29
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 04:26
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 04:49
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout.
“I'm going to pick Liu Ce by round one KO.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Liu Ce as its pick over Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Liu Ce, the kickboxer, to stop Levi Rodrigues Jr. by first-round knockout.
“I'm going to say Liu Ce to win by first-round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Liu Ce to find the knockout through his power against Levi Rodrigues Jr.
“I'm going to pick Lou here. I'm going to pick Lou.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Liu Ce to knock out Levi Rodrigues Jr. early, citing Ce's toughness, length and power in a likely trading fight.
“So, give me C. Louie to win this fight and win it by first round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Liu Ce for his striking and cage defense, expecting him to outbox and out-kickbox Levi Rodrigues Jr.
“Liu is the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout.
“I'm going to go Liu Ce by KO in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Liu Ce for a knockout, allowing either of the opening two rounds.
“Liu Ce is going to get the knockout win, either round one or round two.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. while presenting submission and TKO as alternative routes, so no single method is recorded.
“Levi Rodriguez Jr. ... win by submission or TKO over Leuch.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Levi Rodrigues Jr. · KO/TKO
Fight result: Liu Ce · KO/TKO
Picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. to score an upset knockout in a standing brawl.
“I'm gonna pick Lebby Rodriguez to come out here and get this upset and knock Lou out.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Miss.
8 of 10 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
No current consensus line is saved on this page.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.