Santiago def. Lui
KO/TKO · strikes · Round 2 · 0:53
Lui vs Santiago — Bantamweight · Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Result verified. Full fight recap pending source verification.
Watch
More from this fight.
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: TheWeasle Hit; Half The Battle Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; AJ Miss; MMAPREDICTIONGURU Miss; HopperoMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss.
All 10 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results10 scored · 2 hits · 8 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago · KO/TKO · R1 | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Picks Hector Santiago by first-round knockout. “Hector Santiago is going to get the win by knockout in the first round.” Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks. | |||||
| Santiago · to win | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Hector Santiago as the live underdog in a standing fight. Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · Dec | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Lawrence Lui's striking and grappling mix to win a decision. “Lawrence Louie ... beats Hector Santiago by decision.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · to win | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Lawrence Lui to outwork Hector Santiago without committing to one finishing method. “I will predict that Lawrence Lui wins.” Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · Sub · R2 | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Lawrence Lui by second-round rear-naked-choke submission. “Lawrence will win via submission, second-round rear choke victory.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · Dec | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Lawrence Lui by decision. “Lawrence Lui by decision.” Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · Sub | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Makes Lawrence Lui by submission the featured bet. “For the best bet show, I'll go Lawrence Lui by submission at plus 400.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · Dec | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks picks Lawrence Lui by decision. “Lawrence Lui by decision. Lawrence Lui should win it.” Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · Dec | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Lawrence Lui by decision, citing his CKB experience, jab, leg kicks, and wrestling. “Give me Lawrence Lui by decision.” Track record: winner called in 60 of 90 resolved picks. | |||||
| Lui · to win | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Lawrence Lui as the more well-rounded fighter without fixing a method. “I'm going to go with Lawrence Louie to win this one 'cause he's a little bit more well-rounded.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks. | |||||
Only 2 of 10 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 8-1-0
- Record
- 6-1-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Not published
- Reach
- Not published
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- New Zealand
- Nationality
- Brazil
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Lui
Lui has won five straight and gets there the slow way: five of his nine professional fights reached the judges, and four of his eight wins are decisions. Nothing on the record says he needs a finish, and nothing on it says he has ever been submitted.
Case for Santiago
Santiago is 6-1 with five of his six wins ending early and only one fight in seven reaching a scorecard. At 33 he has the shorter career and the sharper end to it — his last outing was a knockout at 3:42 of the first.
What We Were Watching For
- Five of Lui's nine fights went to a decision. One of Santiago's seven did.
- Santiago finished five of his six wins; Lui finished four of his eight.
- Santiago's only defeat is a second-round rear-naked choke. Lui has never been submitted.
- Lui last fought in January and is on a five-fight run; Santiago has won two since that defeat.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.