Final · 29 Aug 2026

Sumudaerji def. Perez

Dec · unanimous

Perez vs Sumudaerji — Flyweight · Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Perez (26-10-0) vs Sumudaerji (19-7-0)

Flyweight
3 rounds
Main Card
Nurmagomedov vs. Song • 29 Aug 2026
Shanghai, China

Result verified. Full fight recap pending source verification.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Analyst picks: TheWeasle Hit; AJ Hit; MMAPREDICTIONGURU Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; HopperoMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Half The Battle Hit; The MMA Guru Miss.

All 10 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results10 scored · 9 hits · 1 miss
Predicted byPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Sumudaerji · KO/TKO · R3Sumudaerji · DecHitMissMiss
Sumudaerji · to winSumudaerji · DecHitNot calledNot called
Sumudaerji · to winSumudaerji · DecHitNot calledNot called
Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · DecHitHitNot called
Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · DecHitHitNot called
Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · DecHitHitNot called
Sumudaerji · to winSumudaerji · DecHitNot calledNot called
Sumudaerji · DecSumudaerji · DecHitHitNot called
Sumudaerji · KO/TKOSumudaerji · DecHitMissNot called
Perez · to winSumudaerji · DecMissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

9 of 10 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions — Results

Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Sumudaerji · Decision

Closest probability ChatGPT and Claude put 64% on Sumudaerji.

ChatGPT13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
36% Perez
64% Sumudaerji
PickSumudaerji · DecisionActualSumudaerji · Decision
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
Claude11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
36% Perez
64% Sumudaerji
PickSumudaerji · DecisionActualSumudaerji · Decision
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
Gemini13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
45% Perez
55% Sumudaerji
PickSumudaerji · KO/TKO · R2ActualSumudaerji · Decision
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
Perez vs Sumudaerji
26-10-0
Record
19-7-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
34
Age
30
1.68 m
Height — Sumudaerji leads
1.73 m
166 cm
Reach — Sumudaerji leads
183 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
—
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Sumudaerji leads
13
7
Wins by submissionSub wins — Perez leads
1
4.22
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.40
3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Sumudaerji leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.29
59%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Sumudaerji leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
63%
74%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
73%
06:47
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:44
United States
Nationality
China

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Perez

They met in May and it was waved off at 1:45 of the second round after an accidental groin kick, with nothing resolved. Perez is the more varied finisher — seven knockouts and seven submissions among twenty-six wins, 2.07 takedowns and 0.83 submission attempts per 15 minutes — and the more volatile: he averages 6:47 a fight.

Case for Sumudaerji

Sumudaerji has won three straight, all of them on the cards, and is the tidier striker on paper: 4.40 significant strikes landed a minute against 2.29 absorbed, behind 63% defence. Thirteen of his nineteen wins are knockouts, but the current version banks rounds, and three banked rounds wins this.

What We Were Watching For

  • A rematch of a no contest — their May meeting ended at 1:45 of round two on an accidental groin kick.
  • Both men lose the same way: six of Perez's ten defeats are submissions, and six of Sumudaerji's seven are.
  • Perez's last defeat was Asu Almabayev's flying guillotine, 22 seconds into the third round.
  • Sumudaerji's last three wins are all decisions. Perez has not won one since March 2019.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

The Read

Latest snapshot · T-7

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

ChatGPT
36% 64%
Claude
36% 64%
Gemini
45% 55%

3 of 3 models favour Sumudaerji. The combined forecast puts 48% on Decision as the likeliest finish.

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Sumudaerji is the 64% pick, most likely by decision. His reach, striking efficiency and strong early success in the unfinished first meeting favor him at distance, while Perez's wrestling and Sumudaerji's historical submission vulnerability keep the matchup competitive.”

What to watch

  • Sumudaerji led the first meeting 26-9 in significant strikes through 6:45 and scored its only knockdown.
  • Sumudaerji has a 6.5-inch reach advantage and stronger career striking accuracy and defensive metrics.
  • Perez's primary upset route is sustained wrestling and submission pressure against an opponent with six submission losses among seven professional defeats.

Swing factor

Whether Perez can convert early grappling entries into sustained control; he went 0-for-2 on takedowns in the first meeting but remains the more credible submission threat.

Where the models differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence. The full model calls are below.

  • ChatGPTSumudaerji · Decision · medium confidence
  • ClaudeSumudaerji · Decision · medium confidence
  • GeminiSumudaerji · KO/TKO · Round 2 · low confidence

Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Sumudaerji.

Method outlook KO/TKO 34% · Submission 18% · Decision 48%.

Model spread 36%–45% Perez · 55%–64% Sumudaerji.

Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

ChatGPT

gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

36% Perez
64% Sumudaerji

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

10%
18%
28% · KO/TKO: Perez 10%, Sumudaerji 18%
15%
4%
19% · Submission: Perez 15%, Sumudaerji 4%
11%
42%
53% · Decision: Perez 11%, Sumudaerji 42%

Pick

Sumudaerji

Decisionmedium · ●●○

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Sumudaerji is the 64% pick, most likely by decision. His reach, striking efficiency and strong early success in the unfinished first meeting favor him at distance, while Perez's wrestling and Sumudaerji's historical submission vulnerability keep the matchup competitive.

Keys to victory

  • Sumudaerji led the first meeting 26-9 in significant strikes through 6:45 and scored its only knockdown.
  • Sumudaerji has a 6.5-inch reach advantage and stronger career striking accuracy and defensive metrics.
  • Perez's primary upset route is sustained wrestling and submission pressure against an opponent with six submission losses among seven professional defeats.

X-factor

Whether Perez can convert early grappling entries into sustained control; he went 0-for-2 on takedowns in the first meeting but remains the more credible submission threat.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

Claude

claude-opus-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

36% Perez
64% Sumudaerji

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

10%
28%
38% · KO/TKO: Perez 10%, Sumudaerji 28%
13%
3%
16% · Submission: Perez 13%, Sumudaerji 3%
13%
33%
46% · Decision: Perez 13%, Sumudaerji 33%

Pick

Sumudaerji

Decisionmedium · ●●○

How Claude sees the fight

Immediate rematch of a May 30, 2026 No Contest (groin kick, R2 1:45): Perez won R1 with pressure and front-headlock threats before Sumudaerji dropped him with a straight left early in R2 (source-1, source-9). The market sits at Sumudaerji -195/-235, ~63-65% no-vig (source-10). I lean with it: his +7-inch reach, 2.29 SApM absorbed and 73% takedown defense across three straight decision wins outweigh Perez's guillotine path — real against a man with six submission losses, but Perez is 34, averages 6:47 of cage time, and is on a 13-week turnaround (source-3, source-5, source-6).

Keys to victory

  • Sumudaerji's 7-inch reach edge and straight left dropped Perez in R2 of the first fight; the market now prices him -195/-235 (source-9, source-10)
  • Perez's path is the guillotine: 6 of Sumudaerji's 7 losses are submissions, but his TDD is 73% and he stuffed the R1 takedown attempt (source-3, source-6)
  • Perez is 34 and averages 6:47 per fight; Sumudaerji averages 10:44 with three straight decisions, so distance math favors blue (source-5, source-6)

X-factor

Foul recurrence: the first bout featured an eye poke and low blows, so another point deduction or no contest is a live outcome (source-1, source-9).

11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent

Gemini

gemini-3.1-pro-high · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-24

Overall win probability

45% Perez
55% Sumudaerji

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

10%
25%
35% · KO/TKO: Perez 10%, Sumudaerji 25%
15%
5%
20% · Submission: Perez 15%, Sumudaerji 5%
20%
25%
45% · Decision: Perez 20%, Sumudaerji 25%

Pick

Sumudaerji

KO/TKO · Round 2low · ●○○

How Gemini sees the fight

Sumudaerji possesses a significant 7-inch reach and 2-inch height advantage that will complicate distance management for Perez. Although Perez has the wrestling edge and a high striking volume, bridging the distance against a long, southpaw Sanda striker will be challenging. Sumudaerji's youth and outside precision striking give him a clear path to victory, provided he can avoid Perez's takedown attempts.

Keys to victory

  • Sumudaerji's massive 7-inch reach and 2-inch height advantage.
  • Perez's strong grappling base and top control advantage on the mat.
  • Sumudaerji's southpaw stance and outside distance management.

X-factor

Perez's ability to safely bridge the distance and enter the pocket without absorbing significant damage from Sumudaerji's long-range attacks.

13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Fighters

Alex Perez
26-10-0 · Flyweight
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Sumudaerji
19-7-0 · Flyweight
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