UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Round 2 · 0:34
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Kai Asakura and Aoriqileng fought a competitive first round before Asakura landed a clean left high kick in the second.
He followed with an uppercut that dropped Aoriqileng, then knees to the body and heavy strikes to complete the finish.
Aori Qileng is 26-13 with a no contest, and twenty-four of those forty appearances were decided by judges — his record is a long account of still being there at the end. Sixteen of his twenty-six wins came on the cards, and against a man who averages just over six minutes a fight, reaching the third round is itself a plan.
Asakura has finished seventeen of his twenty-two wins and averages 6:11 a fight; only six of his twenty-eight bouts have reached a scorecard. He records 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and does not need one, but his takedown defence is 50% and both of his UFC losses are submissions.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura by first-round knockout.
“Kai Asakura wins this by round one KO.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura by second-round knockout.
“So, Kai Asakura knocking out Ai Chilang in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · Dec
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Kai Asakura as its pick over Aoriqileng.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura by first-round knockout.
“I'm going Asakura KO. I'm thinking a first-round knockout for Kai Asakura.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura's speed and finishing threat to produce an early stoppage.
“A first-round TKO win for Kai Asakura over Aori Chuang.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura to find the knockout in one of the opening two rounds against Aori Qileng.
“Kaya Sakura is going to be the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura by knockout but allows either of the opening two rounds.
“I think Asakura wins by knockout, KO one, two.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura for the superior striking while flagging his takedown defense as Aori Qileng's route to an upset.
“Kai is the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura by first-round knockout.
“Asakura by KO in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura by knockout.
“Kai Asakura is going to get the knockout win here.”
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Shanghai X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Kai Asakura by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Kai Asakura · KO/TKO
Picks Kai Asakura to stop Aori Qileng in the first round as the sharper striker.
“I'm going to pick Kai Asakura to come out here in Shanghai, China, and knock out Iori in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Hit.
12 of 12 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Asakura · KO/TKO · R2
Closest probability Claude and Gemini put 72% on Asakura.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Asakura
Most likely: Asakura by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100
Win chance: Aoriqileng 33%, Asakura 67%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Asakura
Most likely: Asakura by KO/TKO, about 44 in 100
Win chance: Aoriqileng 28%, Asakura 72%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Asakura
Most likely: Asakura by KO/TKO, about 42 in 100
Win chance: Aoriqileng 28%, Asakura 72%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Asakura.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 33%.
Claude
Asakura: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 28%.
Gemini
Asakura: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 28%.
ChatGPT
Asakura by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Claude
Asakura by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Gemini
Asakura by KO/TKO: 42% (about 42 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Aoriqileng by decision (21%); 3. Asakura by decision (14%)
Claude
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Asakura by decision (24%); 3. Aoriqileng by decision (17%)
Gemini
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (42%); 2. Asakura by decision (27%); 3. Aoriqileng by KO/TKO (15%)
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 67% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 72% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 72% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 21%.
Claude
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%, decision 12%.
ChatGPT
Asakura wins 67%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
Claude
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng's most likely upset: Aoriqileng by decision (21%).
Claude
Aoriqileng's most likely upset: Aoriqileng by decision (17%).
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Asakura.
All models
Result: Asakura by KO/TKO in round 2. Asakura by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 58%, submission 7%, decision 35%.
Claude
KO/TKO 53%, submission 6%, decision 41%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 57%, submission 4%, decision 39%.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 53%, against 12% for Aoriqileng.
Claude
Asakura: 48%, against 11% for Aoriqileng.
Gemini
Asakura: 45%, against 16% for Aoriqileng.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Asakura: 53% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%).
Claude
Aoriqileng: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Asakura: 48% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Aoriqileng: 16% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%). Asakura: 45% (KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 5%. Asakura is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 4%. Asakura is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 42% and submitted in 3%. Asakura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 1%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Aoriqileng wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Aoriqileng wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
35%.
Claude
41%.
Gemini
39%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 60%, Asakura 40%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 42%, Asakura 59%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 31%, Asakura 69%.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Asakura by decision, 14% here against 26% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Asakura by decision, 27% here against 19% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (67%).
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (72%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (72%).
All models
On Aoriqileng: ChatGPT (33%). On Asakura: Claude and Gemini, tied (72%).
All models
Asakura by decision: from 14% (ChatGPT) to 27% (Gemini).
ChatGPT
On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.
Gemini
On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
All models
Yes.
Pick
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Asakura by KO/TKO, about 48 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Aoriqileng 33%, Asakura 67%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
Kai Asakura is the model pick, with a 67% total win probability. His most likely route is KO/TKO at 48%, and the forecast centers on a second-round finish. Aori Qileng’s clearest modeled path is a decision, at 21%.
Whether Qileng can extend the fight and shift it toward the scorecards, where the locked distribution gives him his strongest route to victory.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 33%.
Claude
Asakura: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 28%.
Gemini
Asakura: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 28%.
ChatGPT
Asakura by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Claude
Asakura by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Gemini
Asakura by KO/TKO: 42% (about 42 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Aoriqileng by decision (21%); 3. Asakura by decision (14%)
Claude
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Asakura by decision (24%); 3. Aoriqileng by decision (17%)
Gemini
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (42%); 2. Asakura by decision (27%); 3. Aoriqileng by KO/TKO (15%)
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 67% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 72% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 72% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 21%.
Claude
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%, decision 12%.
ChatGPT
Asakura wins 67%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
Claude
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng's most likely upset: Aoriqileng by decision (21%).
Claude
Aoriqileng's most likely upset: Aoriqileng by decision (17%).
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Asakura.
ChatGPT
Result: Asakura by KO/TKO in round 2. Asakura by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 58%, submission 7%, decision 35%.
Claude
KO/TKO 53%, submission 6%, decision 41%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 57%, submission 4%, decision 39%.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 53%, against 12% for Aoriqileng.
Claude
Asakura: 48%, against 11% for Aoriqileng.
Gemini
Asakura: 45%, against 16% for Aoriqileng.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Asakura: 53% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%).
Claude
Aoriqileng: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Asakura: 48% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Aoriqileng: 16% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%). Asakura: 45% (KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 5%. Asakura is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 4%. Asakura is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 42% and submitted in 3%. Asakura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 1%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Aoriqileng wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Aoriqileng wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
35%.
Claude
41%.
Gemini
39%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 60%, Asakura 40%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 42%, Asakura 59%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 31%, Asakura 69%.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Asakura by decision, 14% here against 26% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Asakura by decision, 27% here against 19% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (67%).
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (72%).
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (72%).
ChatGPT
On Aoriqileng: ChatGPT (33%). On Asakura: Claude and Gemini, tied (72%).
ChatGPT
Asakura by decision: from 14% (ChatGPT) to 27% (Gemini).
ChatGPT
On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.
Gemini
On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Asakura by KO/TKO, about 44 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 1.
Win chance: Aoriqileng 28%, Asakura 72%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
Kai Asakura is a clear favorite over Aori Qileng (-300 to -400, ~75-77% de-vigged; source-5, source-10), and the stylistic read supports it. Neither man wrestles — Qileng attempts 1.11 TD/15min at 27% (source-6), Asakura has zero UFC takedowns (source-8) — so this projects as open-space striking, removing Asakura's one proven hole: both UFC losses were R2 submissions (source-3). Qileng absorbs 5.66 sig. strikes/min behind 47% striking defense (source-6) against a 64%-KO-rate finisher (source-3). I shade slightly under the line for Qileng's volume and Asakura's 1-2 UFC record (source-3).
Qileng's 4.40 SLpM at 50% accuracy vs. Kai Asakura's 2.53 at 34% (source-6, source-8): if R1 passes without a knockdown, that output gap makes a Qileng decision live.
Claude
Asakura: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 28%.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 33%.
Claude
Asakura by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).
ChatGPT
Asakura by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Gemini
Asakura by KO/TKO: 42% (about 42 in 100).
Claude
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Asakura by decision (24%); 3. Aoriqileng by decision (17%)
ChatGPT
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Aoriqileng by decision (21%); 3. Asakura by decision (14%)
Gemini
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (42%); 2. Asakura by decision (27%); 3. Aoriqileng by KO/TKO (15%)
Claude
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 72% win chance.
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 67% win chance.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.
Claude
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 21%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%, decision 12%.
Claude
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%, decision 24%.
ChatGPT
Asakura wins 67%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
Gemini
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
Claude
Aoriqileng's most likely upset: Aoriqileng by decision (17%).
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng's most likely upset: Aoriqileng by decision (21%).
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Asakura.
Claude
Result: Asakura by KO/TKO in round 2. Asakura by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Claude
KO/TKO 53%, submission 6%, decision 41%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 58%, submission 7%, decision 35%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 57%, submission 4%, decision 39%.
Claude
Asakura: 48%, against 11% for Aoriqileng.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 53%, against 12% for Aoriqileng.
Gemini
Asakura: 45%, against 16% for Aoriqileng.
Claude
Aoriqileng: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Asakura: 48% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%).
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Asakura: 53% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Aoriqileng: 16% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%). Asakura: 45% (KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%).
Claude
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 4%. Asakura is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 5%. Asakura is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 42% and submitted in 3%. Asakura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 1%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Claude
Aoriqileng wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
41%.
ChatGPT
35%.
Gemini
39%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 42%, Asakura 59%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 60%, Asakura 40%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 31%, Asakura 69%.
Claude
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (72%).
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (67%).
Claude
On Aoriqileng: ChatGPT (33%). On Asakura: Claude and Gemini, tied (72%).
Claude
Asakura by decision: from 14% (ChatGPT) to 27% (Gemini).
Claude
On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.
ChatGPT
On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Gemini
On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Claude
Yes.
claude-opus-5 · 23 Aug61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Asakura by KO/TKO, about 42 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Aoriqileng 28%, Asakura 72%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
Kai Asakura's move up to his natural bantamweight class appears to have unlocked his dynamic striking potential in the UFC, as evidenced by his recent quick finish. While Aori Qileng is a highly durable brawler who applies heavy forward pressure, his defensive liabilities in the pocket play directly into Asakura's elite counter-striking and karate-based angles. Expect a high-paced striking battle where Asakura's speed and precision eventually overwhelm the tough Chinese fighter.
Aori Qileng's renowned durability; if he can absorb Asakura's best shots and turn the fight into a gritty war of attrition, he could disrupt Asakura's rhythm.
Gemini
Asakura: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 28%.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Aoriqileng: 33%.
Gemini
Asakura by KO/TKO: 42% (about 42 in 100).
ChatGPT
Asakura by KO/TKO: 48% (about 48 in 100).
Claude
Asakura by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Gemini
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (42%); 2. Asakura by decision (27%); 3. Aoriqileng by KO/TKO (15%)
ChatGPT
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (48%); 2. Aoriqileng by decision (21%); 3. Asakura by decision (14%)
Claude
1. Asakura by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Asakura by decision (24%); 3. Aoriqileng by decision (17%)
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 72% win chance.
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Asakura's 67% win chance.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 61%. Decision: 39%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 35%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%, decision 12%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 21%.
Claude
Aoriqileng wins 28%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
Gemini
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%, decision 27%.
ChatGPT
Asakura wins 67%: KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
Claude
Asakura wins 72%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%, decision 24%.
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Asakura.
Gemini
Result: Asakura by KO/TKO in round 2. Asakura by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
KO/TKO 57%, submission 4%, decision 39%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 58%, submission 7%, decision 35%.
Claude
KO/TKO 53%, submission 6%, decision 41%.
Gemini
Asakura: 45%, against 16% for Aoriqileng.
ChatGPT
Asakura: 53%, against 12% for Aoriqileng.
Claude
Asakura: 48%, against 11% for Aoriqileng.
Gemini
Aoriqileng: 16% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 1%). Asakura: 45% (KO/TKO 42%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Asakura: 53% (KO/TKO 48%, submission 5%).
Claude
Aoriqileng: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Asakura: 48% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 42% and submitted in 3%. Asakura is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 1%.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 48% and submitted in 5%. Asakura is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Aoriqileng is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 4%. Asakura is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Gemini
Aoriqileng wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
Aoriqileng wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
39%.
ChatGPT
35%.
Claude
41%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 31%, Asakura 69%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 60%, Asakura 40%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Aoriqileng 42%, Asakura 59%.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Asakura by decision, 27% here against 19% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Asakura by decision, 14% here against 26% on average for the others.
Gemini
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (72%).
ChatGPT
Of 12 analyst picks, 0 back Aoriqileng and 12 back Asakura. This model picks Asakura (67%).
Gemini
On Aoriqileng: ChatGPT (33%). On Asakura: Claude and Gemini, tied (72%).
Gemini
Asakura by decision: from 14% (ChatGPT) to 27% (Gemini).
Gemini
On 24 Aug 2026, by gemini-3.1-pro-high.
ChatGPT
On 23 Aug 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 23 Aug 2026, by claude-opus-5.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Gemini
Yes.
gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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