Montanha def. Sutherland
Sub · rear-naked choke · Round 1 · 1:50
Sutherland vs Montanha — Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
Jose Montanha made a forceful UFC debut by taking Louie Sutherland down early, returning him to the mat after he briefly rose and flattening him out. The Brazilian secured the rear-naked choke at 1:50 of round one.
- Montanha took Sutherland down early and returned him to the canvas when he worked back to his feet.
- He flattened Sutherland out and attacked the choke from dominant position.
- Sutherland tapped to the rear-naked choke just before the two-minute mark.
Play-by-play source: UFC.com · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld prelim results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: The MMA Guru missed; Bedtime MMA missed; DFS By The Numbers missed; MMAPREDICTIONGURU missed; Marcel Dorff missed; Bookie Beatdown missed; JakeGerberMMA missed; Michael Chiesa missed; TheWeasle perfect call; We Want Picks called it; Half The Battle called it; Adam Martin perfect call; KennyOkoyeMMA called it.
5 of 13 called the winner · 2 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
TheWeasle Analyst called 34 of 48 TheWeasle: predicted Montanha · Sub · R1. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Perfect call.
Expects Sutherland to give up his back and get choked out inside the first round.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 48 resolved picks, 14 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 45 of 67 We Want Picks: predicted Montanha · to win. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Takes the underdog, Montanha.
Track record: winner called in 45 of 67 resolved picks.
Half The Battle Analyst called 26 of 36 Half The Battle: predicted Montanha · to win. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Backs Montanha to upset Sutherland.
Track record: winner called in 26 of 36 resolved picks, 5 a perfect call.
Adam Martin AnalystBetting desk called 14 of 16 Adam Martin: predicted Montanha · Sub. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Perfect call.
Takes the underdog on a submission finish.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 16 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 15 of 18 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Montanha · to win. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Hit.
Leans the slight underdog, Montanha.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 18 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 39 of 56 The MMA Guru: predicted Sutherland · KO/TKO. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Takes Sutherland to finish Montanha by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 39 of 56 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 58 of 88 Bedtime MMA: predicted Sutherland · Decision. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Takes Sutherland on the scorecards.
Track record: winner called in 58 of 88 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 54 of 76 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Sutherland · Decision. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Calls Sutherland the rightful favourite and takes him by decision.
Track record: winner called in 54 of 76 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Sutherland · to win. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Expects Sutherland to win.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Marcel Dorff Analyst called 12 of 15 Marcel Dorff: predicted Sutherland · Decision. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Takes Sutherland as the favourite by decision.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 15 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 10 of 16 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Sutherland · Decision. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Leans on Sutherland's cardio for a decision win.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 30 of 38 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Sutherland · Decision. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Takes Sutherland by a 30-27 scorecard.
Track record: winner called in 30 of 38 resolved picks, 4 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 24 of 31 Michael Chiesa: predicted Sutherland · to win. Actual Montanha · Sub R1. Result: Miss.
Takes Sutherland while allowing that a fight between two big men can turn on one moment.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 31 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Sutherland (64%) Upset
Montanha def. Sutherland · Sub R1
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 11-5-0
- Record
- 6-1-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 8
- Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins
- —
- 0
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- —
- 1.81
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- 2.03
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- 30%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- Not published
- 0%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- Not published
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- England
- Nationality
- Brazil
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Sutherland
Sutherland has finished eight of his eleven career wins by knockout, and he arrives on a rebound: a unanimous-decision win over Tai Tuivasa in May, after being stopped by strikes against Brando Pericic and submitted by Valter Walker in the two fights before that. He also puts in real takedown volume for a heavyweight — 4.95 attempts per 15 minutes — so Montanha cannot assume this stays a standup fight simply because Sutherland's identity is knockout power.
Case for Montanha
Montanha arrives at 6-1 with a record built on finishing: four of his six wins are submissions, including a three-fight run of first-round submissions that took 8:29 in total. His only loss is a 2022 decision to Richard Jacobi. He is making his UFC debut, so there is no Octagon tape and no per-minute UFC numbers on him yet — Sutherland is the first real read anyone gets.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Montanha's takedown entries get past Sutherland's hands before Sutherland's power decides it — eight of Sutherland's eleven wins have come by knockout.
- Montanha's three-fight run of first-round submissions, 8:29 combined, meeting UFC heavyweight competition for the first time.
- Sutherland's own recent form: a decision win over Tuivasa on the heels of being stopped by strikes, then submitted, in the two fights before that — which version turns up.
- A UFC debutant with no Octagon tape against an opponent who has now been finished twice in three fights — whichever way it breaks, it is unlikely to be dull.
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