UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld 8 Aug 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Steven Asplund defeats Guilherme Pat by unanimous decision

Win Steven Asplund View profile 8-2-0

Loss Guilherme Pat View profile 6-2-0

Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks9 analysts✓ Correct 89%8 picks 11%1 pick

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Asplund dropped Pat late in the first round and worked from top position.

Pat rallied in the second with a jab and left hook that dropped Asplund.

Asplund answered with a high kick and stronger pressure over the final five minutes.

Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld — Preliminary Card Results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Asplund

Asplund is one of the highest-volume strikers in the division right now: 10.05 significant strikes landed per minute at 52% accuracy across his UFC and Contender Series fights, with six of his seven career wins by knockout. He needed 16 seconds to finish Anthony Guarascio on the Contender Series to earn his contract, opened his UFC run with a second-round TKO of Sean Sharaf, then dropped a decision to Vitor Petrino in March. That workrate is the exact problem Pat has not yet had to answer inside the Octagon.

Case for Pat

Pat is 6-1 with four of his six wins by knockout, but his UFC output looks nothing like Asplund's: 2.70 significant strikes landed per minute at 62% accuracy, built on picking shots rather than trading volume. He opened his UFC run with a unanimous-decision win over Allen Frye Jr., then lost a majority decision to Thomas Petersen in his next outing. If he can make Asplund's aggression cost something early, the accuracy gap favours him; if the pace holds for three rounds, he has not yet shown he can match that output.

What We Were Watching For

Asplund lands 10.05 significant strikes per minute to Pat's 2.70 — whether that pace holds for three rounds is the central question.
Pat's 62% striking accuracy against Asplund's 52%: picking shots against sheer volume.
Neither man has landed a takedown in his tracked UFC or Contender Series fights, so this is very likely to stay a standup fight.
Asplund has finished six of his seven wins; whether Pat's more conservative output denies him the finish and drags it to the scorecards.

Records & career stats

Asplund vs Pat

Asplund Pat

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 7.88 2.80
Striking def.Striking defense 48% 46%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 5.25 2.82
Takedown def.Takedown defense 100% 100%
FinishingFinish rate 86% 67%

7-2-0
Record: 6-1-0; 4-1 last 5
Recent form: 4-1 last 5; United States
Nationality: Brazil; 28
Age: 32; 1.96 m
Height — Pat leads: 1.98 m; 198 cm
Reach — Pat leads: 206 cm; —
Stance: —; 86%
Finish rateFinish % — Asplund leads: 67%; 6
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Asplund leads: 4; 0
Wins by submissionSub wins: 0; 7.88
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Asplund leads: 2.80; 5.25
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Pat leads: 2.82; 48%
Striking defenseStrike def.: 46%; 100%
Takedown defenseTD def.: 100%; —
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: —; Minnesota Top Team
Team: Lotus MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(8) 89%

WAsplund

11% (1)

PatL

Analyst prediction scorecards

TheWeasle163 resolved calls TheWeasleView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48 Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29 Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33 Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Pat · KO/TKO · R2	Asplund · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Expects Pat to pick Asplund apart for a second-round TKO. “But if he doesn't, then Pat is going to pick him apart for a second round TKO.” Hear it — 13:25 TheWeasle on YouTube ↗ TheWeasle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
KennyOkoyeMMA53 resolved calls KennyOkoyeMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17 Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 62.5% 5 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Miss	Not called
Calls Asplund by knockout the lock of the card. “I think Asplund wins probably by KO as well.” Hear it — 8:17 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗ KennyOkoyeMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls Michael ChiesaView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20 Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to win	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Not called	Not called
Takes Asplund without naming a method. “I definitely like Steven Asplin as well.” Hear it — 5:05 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗ Michael Chiesa’s track record → Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Marcel Dorff18 resolved calls Marcel DorffView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 12 6 Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4 Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R1	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Miss	Miss
Takes Asplund by first-round TKO. “Yeah, man. Steven Aspen's for me as well. first round TKO.” Hear it — 13:23 Marcel Dorff’s track record → Track record: winner called in 12 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Miss	Not called
Takes Asplund by TKO, while allowing for the finish in the second or third round. “I'm going to go with Steven Asplund getting this one done by TKO. I think he'll eventually finish Guilherme Pat in the third round, maybe the second round by TKO.” Hear it — 14:07 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Miss	Miss
Takes Asplund by second-round knockout. “Give me Steven Asplin to win this fight by second round knockout.” Hear it — 22:09 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Half The Battle87 resolved calls Half The BattleView full track record Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34 Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to win	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Not called	Not called
Takes Asplund, hedging between a stoppage and a decision. “I'm going to pick Steven Aspinal. He'll either get a TKO or win a decision.” Hear it — 20:13 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)View full track record Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7 Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · Dec	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Hit	Not called
Takes Asplund on the scorecards. “But as a prediction, I'm going to go Steven Aspen via Decision.” Hear it — 36:49 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗ MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record → Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Adam Martin29 resolved calls Adam MartinView full track record Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2	Asplund · Dec R3	Hit	Miss	Miss
Takes Asplund by second-round knockout. “Easy pick, Steven Asplin. Knocks him out. Easy pick. Overwhelms him with punches in the second round.” Hear it — 13:18 Adam Martin’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

8 of 9 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.