Asplund def. Pat
Dec · unanimous · 5:00
Asplund vs Pat — Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
Steven Asplund won a back-and-forth heavyweight decision over Guilherme Pat by answering Pat's second-round rally with a stronger final frame. Asplund controlled the first, recovered his momentum with a high kick in the second and finished the fight as the clearer late force.
- Asplund dropped Pat late in the first round and worked from top position.
- Pat rallied in the second with a jab and left hook that dropped Asplund.
- Asplund answered with a high kick and stronger pressure over the final five minutes.
- 29–28
- 29–28
- 29–28
Play-by-play source: UFC.com · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld prelim results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: Bedtime MMA called it; The MMA Guru called it; DFS By The Numbers called it; MMAPREDICTIONGURU perfect call; Half The Battle called it; Adam Martin called it; Marcel Dorff called it; Bookie Beatdown called it; KennyOkoyeMMA called it; JakeGerberMMA called it; Michael Chiesa called it; AJ called it; TheWeasle missed; Mike Finch missed.
12 of 14 nailed it · 1 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 58 of 88 Bedtime MMA: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO · R3. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund by a third-round standing TKO.
Track record: winner called in 58 of 88 resolved picks, 25 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 39 of 56 The MMA Guru: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund by second-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 39 of 56 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 54 of 76 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 54 of 76 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call.
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 15 of 25 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Asplund · Decision. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Takes Asplund on the scorecards.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 25 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 26 of 36 Half The Battle: predicted Asplund · to win. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund, hedging between a stoppage and a decision.
Track record: winner called in 26 of 36 resolved picks, 5 a perfect call.
Adam Martin AnalystBetting desk called 14 of 16 Adam Martin: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 16 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Marcel Dorff Analyst called 12 of 15 Marcel Dorff: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund by first-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 15 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call.
Bookie Beatdown Betting deskAnalyst called 10 of 16 Bookie Beatdown: predicted Asplund · to win. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Leans Asplund for a finish.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
KennyOkoyeMMA Analyst called 15 of 18 KennyOkoyeMMA: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Calls Asplund by knockout the lock of the card.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 18 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 30 of 38 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund by second-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 30 of 38 resolved picks, 4 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter called 24 of 31 Michael Chiesa: predicted Asplund · to win. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund without naming a method.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 31 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 48 of 60 AJ: predicted Asplund · KO/TKO. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Asplund by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 48 of 60 resolved picks, 23 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 34 of 48 TheWeasle: predicted Pat · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Miss.
Expects Pat to pick Asplund apart for a second-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 48 resolved picks, 14 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 22 of 35 Mike Finch: predicted Pat · Decision. Actual Asplund · Dec. Result: Miss.
Takes Pat in a close decision.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 35 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Asplund (72%) Called it
Asplund def. Pat · Dec
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 10.05 2.70
- 50% 51%
- 6.64 2.03
- 100% 100%
- 86% 67%
- 7-2-0
- Record
- 6-1-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- United States
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Minnesota Top Team
- Team
- Lotus MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Asplund
Asplund is one of the highest-volume strikers in the division right now: 10.05 significant strikes landed per minute at 52% accuracy across his UFC and Contender Series fights, with six of his seven career wins by knockout. He needed 16 seconds to finish Anthony Guarascio on the Contender Series to earn his contract, opened his UFC run with a second-round TKO of Sean Sharaf, then dropped a decision to Vitor Petrino in March. That workrate is the exact problem Pat has not yet had to answer inside the Octagon.
Case for Pat
Pat is 6-1 with four of his six wins by knockout, but his UFC output looks nothing like Asplund's: 2.70 significant strikes landed per minute at 62% accuracy, built on picking shots rather than trading volume. He opened his UFC run with a unanimous-decision win over Allen Frye Jr., then lost a majority decision to Thomas Petersen in his next outing. If he can make Asplund's aggression cost something early, the accuracy gap favours him; if the pace holds for three rounds, he has not yet shown he can match that output.
What We Were Watching For
- Asplund lands 10.05 significant strikes per minute to Pat's 2.70 — whether that pace holds for three rounds is the central question.
- Pat's 62% striking accuracy against Asplund's 52%: picking shots against sheer volume.
- Neither man has landed a takedown in his tracked UFC or Contender Series fights, so this is very likely to stay a standup fight.
- Asplund has finished six of his seven wins; whether Pat's more conservative output denies him the finish and drags it to the scorecards.
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