UFC veteran Michael Chiesa shares full-card UFC prediction breakdowns and betting picks on his channel.
Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 29 of 42 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 29 13
- Method 1 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 5
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Michael Chiesa scored 70.2 after 4 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: Half The Battle (#12). Against the median of the other 17 ranked analysts they finished 6.8 below, from 11.2 above at Medic vs. Rodriguez.
70.2 now, across 4 cards. The first 1 card is drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
29 of 42 — 69% now, from 83% at their first scored card.
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Method
1 of 3 correct winners that named a method — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
17% 1 of 6 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Round — No round calls
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 330 70.2 5 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 79.0 7 hit · 4 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 87.4 7 hit · 1 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 85.4 10 hit · 2 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 6
- MethodNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Orolbai's wrestling against Wells's forward pressure and expects him to get his hand raised after a distance fight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · to win | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Brahimaj's leg attacks, heavier shots and grappling against Magny. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gives Fernando the edge in the matchup without a method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Luque · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sticks with his earlier Luque selection and records no method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Johnson's power, confidence and reported improvements from camp. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Turner · to win | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Turner as a betting pick without committing to a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Álvarez because he sees more paths to win and questions Njokuani's confidence after the prior loss. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · to win | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Ribovics inside the distance, but does not specify a precise finishing method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Abdul-Malik but explicitly does not expect a finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Robertson · Dec | Dern · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Robertson's matchup and coaching edge, confidently calling a decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Makhachev without turning a possible submission into a method prediction. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 4
- MethodNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Gamrot by decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · to win | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Goes with Ferreira without naming a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · to win | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs del Valle's judo and grappling base to outclass a declining Elkins, without naming a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · to win | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Goes with Miller without naming a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Lemos · to win | Thainara · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
A low-confidence value pick for Lemos, on the view that Thainara has not yet faced a comparably tested opponent. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| No pick | Johns · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Explicitly declines to pick: "This fight just got made today... since I haven't done any research on Johnny Vasquez [Gianni Vazquez], it would be a disservice to you guys to even pick on this fight. So, I'm going to brush that one to the wayside." Notes his earlier pick of Miles Johns was for the since-replaced opponent (Rosas), not Vazquez. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland while allowing that a fight between two big men can turn on one moment. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · to win | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it close to a coin flip but leans Nurgozhay. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to win | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Asplund without naming a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to win | Sousa · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Miranda without naming a method. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller to finish inside the distance. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Foro · to win | Foro · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Foro over Canuto. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 1
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · to win | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Called it a hard fight to pick and admitted a personal relationship with D-Rod, but went with Medic on explosiveness and fast starts, expecting him to bank big early rounds while conceding Rodriguez gets better the longer it goes. “As contradictory as this is, I'm going with [Uroš] Medić. I just think that he's going to win big rounds early.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picked Stirling because he does not think Blachowicz, carrying injuries and age, can find his rhythm if it is disrupted, and sees no plan B for him. Explicitly said he does not expect a finish. “I don't think [Stirling] gets him out of there inside the distance. I think this fight does go 15 minutes.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · to win | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Likes the move to heavyweight for Rakic, who he says is oversized for 205 and will perform better without the cut, with a clear athleticism, speed and power edge over the 40-year-old Tybura. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Thinks Todorovic's habit of repeating the same jab while pressing makes him predictable and walks him into a counter, and that Valentin has the power and the fundamentals to punish it. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Urbina · to win | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Has trained with Urbina and rates his length, teeps, oblique kicks and front-choke game, plus higher-level UFC experience, against Cepo's wild pressure brawling. “I'm taking Gilbert Urbina inside the distance.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 26.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.47 — (50% − 26.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “In the welterweight tilt between Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira, I'm going with Oliveira.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · to win | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “In the featured prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq Musayev.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · to win | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “In the featherweight bout on the prelims, I'm taking Bogdan Grad.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 2
- Method 1 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Temirov · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it close but favors Temirov's explosiveness and more meaningful shots; he explicitly leaves finish versus decision open. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to win | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Patterson as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · Dec | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favors Kuniev's pocket combinations and knees against Fortune's wrestling entries, but does not expect Fortune to be stopped. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Dulatov vs Turman | Dulatov · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to win | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Sola as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Walker · to win | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Walker as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tuchalov · to win | Tuchalov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Tuchalov as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to win | Zaynukov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Expects Zaynukov's output and well-rounded camp experience to overwhelm Rzepecki and find a finish inside two rounds, without naming a specific method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Davis as the more technically complete fighter if he stays mobile and keeps Aliev's grappling from dictating the bout. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · Dec | Vagaev · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Vagaev's deeper game and more reliable gas tank over Izagakhmaev after the latter faded in a previous long-layoff return. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Jacoby as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Hussein as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Michael Chiesa's logged calls.