UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 15 Aug 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US

Chidi Njokuani defeats Joel Álvarez by unanimous decision

Win Bang Bang Chidi Njokuani View profile 26-12-0

Loss El Fenómeno Joel Álvarez View profile 23-5-0

Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks13 analysts✗ Incorrect 8%1 pick 92%12 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

This was a striking match fought almost entirely at distance. UFC’s own prelim report calls it a "slightly more ramped up sparring session", with both men trading from range rather than committing to anything that would change the shape of the fight.

Njokuani won it on volume and variety. Across all three rounds he was the more active fighter, working every target while avoiding anything significant coming back. The judges returned 30–27, 30–27 and 29–28 in his favour.

Official event identityUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Official preliminary-card reportUFC · UFC 330 prelims results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Njokuani

The official UFC card lists Njokuani in the red corner for this three-round welterweight bout. His documented UFC profile supplies the record and performance context for the matchup.

Case for Álvarez

The official UFC card lists Álvarez in the blue corner. His public UFC profile records a long finishing résumé, so this preview stays with that sourced record rather than inferring a late-replacement narrative.

What We Were Watching For

Which fighter establishes the first sustained exchange at welterweight?
Can Álvarez turn a close exchange into one of his documented finishing sequences?
Does Njokuani make the contest a measured three-round striking fight?

Records & career stats

Njokuani vs Álvarez

25-12-0
Record: 23-4-0; 3-2 last 5
Recent form: 4-1 last 5; United States
Nationality: Spain; 37
Age: 33; 1.91 m
Height — Njokuani leads: 1.88 m; 203 cm
Reach — Njokuani leads: 196 cm; Orthodox
Stance: Orthodox; 64%
Finish rateFinish % — Álvarez leads: 96%; 15
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Njokuani leads: 5; 1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Álvarez leads: 17; 5.78
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Njokuani leads: 4.59; —
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min: 4.13; —
Striking defenseStrike def.: 48%; —
Takedown defenseTD def.: 48%; —
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 08:19

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(1) 8%

WNjokuani

92% (12)

ÁlvarezL

Analyst prediction scorecards

Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Njokuani · Dec	Njokuani · Dec R3	Hit	Hit	Not called
Backs Njokuani to win a decision over Álvarez. “I'm going to go with Chidi Njokuani to win this.” Hear it — 19:38 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
AJ Devito237 resolved calls AJ DevitoView full track record Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72 Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42 Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2 Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Álvarez for his grappling and kickboxing edges without a final method call. “I'm going Alvarez.” Hear it — 67:14 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗ AJ Devito’s track record → Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA JOEY96 resolved calls MMA JOEYView full track record Winner Accuracy 68.8% 66 30 Method Accuracy 42.6% 20 27 Round Accuracy 26.9% 7 19 Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Sub · R1	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Álvarez by first-round guillotine submission in the replacement-aware matchup segment. “I'm going to go Yoel Alvarez first round guillotine submission.” Hear it — 21:42 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗ MMA JOEY’s track record → Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
KennyOkoyeMMA53 resolved calls KennyOkoyeMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17 Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 62.5% 5 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Selects Álvarez in the full-card prediction segment. “I'm going to go Alvarez for the win there.” Hear it — 13:58 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗ KennyOkoyeMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls Michael ChiesaView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20 Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Álvarez because he sees more paths to win and questions Njokuani's confidence after the prior loss. “I got to go with Joel Alvarez.” Hear it — 52:01 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗ Michael Chiesa’s track record → Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls JakeGerberMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39 Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18 Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Sub	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Predicts Álvarez to club and submit Njokuani, without a single round call. “Joel Alvarez to get this one done by a submission.” Hear it — 35:38 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Álvarez's striking and backs him over Njokuani. “I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez getting this one done. He should win.” Hear it — 19:28 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Dec	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Álvarez as more reliable under adversity and ultimately selects a decision despite acknowledging multiple methods are possible. “Give me Alvarez to win. I'll take Alvarez to win by decision in this one.” Hear it — 17:53 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
HopperMMA120 resolved calls HopperMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44 Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23 Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19 Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Dec	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Álvarez after noting Njokuani's recent form, but expects a decision rather than a finish. “I'm going to go with Yoel Alvarez. I'm going to pick him to win this one by decision.” Hear it — 13:23 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Half The Battle87 resolved calls Half The BattleView full track record Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34 Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Álvarez to break Njokuani down down the stretch, without a formal finish-method call. “I'm gonna go with Joel Alvarez to come out here and break Chitty down the stretch.” Hear it — 28:46 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Bookie Beatdown26 resolved calls Bookie BeatdownView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 13 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 1 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Both hosts agree on Álvarez; only one specifies submission, so the channel consensus is recorded winner-only. “I think Alvarez is going to sub him. Yeah, I got Alvarez as well.” Hear it — 42:02 Bookie Beatdown on YouTube ↗ Bookie Beatdown’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Alexander K. Lee12 resolved calls Alexander K. LeeView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6 Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Fighting's UFC 330 predictions article has Alexander K. Lee picking Joel Alvarez. Read source Alexander K. Lee’s track record → Track record: winner called in 6 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Sub · R2	Njokuani · Dec R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Chris Schweppe's UFC 330 fight-picks article has him picking Joel Alvarez by second-round submission. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Only 1 of 13 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.