UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 15 Aug 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US

Jeremiah Wells defeats Myktybek Orolbai by Submission

Win Jeremiah Wells View profile 14-4-1

Loss Myktybek Orolbai View profile 16-3-1

Submission · guillotine choke

Round 3 · 1:24

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks13 analysts✗ Incorrect 0%0 picks 100%13 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Wells lost the first two rounds and needed something decisive rather than a points recovery going into the third.

He found it early in that round: a haymaker rocked Orolbai and forced him to reach for the clinch. Wells immediately latched onto a power guillotine and ended the contest at 1:24. The finish earned one of the night’s $100,000 performance bonuses.

Official event identityUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Official preliminary-card reportUFC · UFC 330 prelims results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Wells

Wells's route is to make the fight physical early, use striking to create a reaction and capitalize before Orolbai settles into his grappling rhythm.

Case for Orolbai

Orolbai's route is to threaten Wells from either phase, especially if he can turn a striking exchange into a body lock or a scramble.

What We Were Watching For

Whether Wells can keep Orolbai from changing the phase of the fight on his terms.
Orolbai's first response to Wells's pressure and pocket work.
The quality of the transitions after the first defended takedown.
Which fighter adapts best when the first finish does not appear.

Records & career stats

Wells vs Orolbai

13-4-1
Record: 16-2-1; 3-2 last 5
Recent form: 4-1 last 5; United States
Nationality: Kyrgyzstan; 39
Age: 28; 1.75 m
Height — Orolbai leads: 1.78 m; 188 cm
Reach: 188 cm; —
Stance: —; 69%
Finish rateFinish % — Orolbai leads: 81%; 5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Orolbai leads: 7; 5
Wins by submissionSub wins — Orolbai leads: 6; 2.21
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Wells leads: 0.41; —
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min: —; —
Striking defenseStrike def.: —; —
Takedown defenseTD def.: —; —
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: —; Daniel Gracie Team
Team: Team Alpha Male

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(0) 0%

WWells

100% (13)

OrolbaiL

Analyst prediction scorecards

Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Dec	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Expects Orolbai's pressure and takedowns to wear Wells down for a decision. “I'm going to go with Mike Trizano Oralbay.” Hear it — 1:21 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
AJ Devito237 resolved calls AJ DevitoView full track record Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72 Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42 Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2 Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Calls Orolbai the definite pick for his wrestling, control and faster striking against Wells's grappling exposure. “Orai definitely the pick.” Hear it — 24:47 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗ AJ Devito’s track record → Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA JOEY96 resolved calls MMA JOEYView full track record Winner Accuracy 68.8% 66 30 Method Accuracy 42.6% 20 27 Round Accuracy 26.9% 7 19 Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub · R2	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Orolbai by second-round rear-naked choke after expecting him to control Wells. “I'll go with Mokaev Oralbay, second round rear-naked choke.” Hear it — 3:27 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗ MMA JOEY’s track record → Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
KennyOkoyeMMA53 resolved calls KennyOkoyeMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17 Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 62.5% 5 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Selects Orolbai in the full-card prediction segment. “I'm going to go Orby for the win.” Hear it — 4:21 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗ KennyOkoyeMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls Michael ChiesaView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20 Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Orolbai's wrestling against Wells's forward pressure and expects him to get his hand raised after a distance fight. “It's going to be Mechtobec Oral by getting his hand raised.” Hear it — 6:45 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗ Michael Chiesa’s track record → Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls JakeGerberMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39 Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18 Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Expects Orolbai to hurt Wells, use takedowns and dominant position, then find a submission. “We're going Micktobeck, Orli. I think he destroys Jeremiah Wells.” Hear it — 7:00 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Favors Orolbai's dominant matchup position over Wells. “I'm going to go with Mike Dbecker getting this one done.” Hear it — 3:33 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub · R3	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Expects Orolbai's strength and grappling to wear Wells down before a late submission; flags Wells's takedown defense and cardio. “We'll go My Titty Back Oral Boy to win this fight by third round submission.” Hear it — 3:26 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Leftlane MMA18 resolved calls Leftlane MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7 Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Mike Orolbai by submission; the caption renders Orolbai as Oral Bay. “controls that motion everywhere. He's going to sub Jeremiah Wells.” Hear it — 0:41 Leftlane MMA on YouTube ↗ Leftlane MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 11 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Half The Battle87 resolved calls Half The BattleView full track record Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34 Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Picks Orolbai to put Wells through the grinder, without committing to a method. “I just think Oral comes out here and puts Jeremiah Wells through the grinder.” Hear it — 45:15 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Bookie Beatdown26 resolved calls Bookie BeatdownView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 13 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 1 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Both hosts ultimately endorse Orolbai by submission; the shared method is confirmed in the closing slate. “Give me a strongman sub this week on Oro by.” Hear it — 92:08 Bookie Beatdown on YouTube ↗ Bookie Beatdown’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Alexander K. Lee12 resolved calls Alexander K. LeeView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6 Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Fighting's UFC 330 predictions article has Alexander K. Lee picking Myktybek Orolbai. Read source Alexander K. Lee’s track record → Track record: winner called in 6 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Dec	Wells · Sub R3	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Chris Schweppe's UFC 330 fight-picks article has him picking Myktybek Orolbai by decision. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Only 0 of 13 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.