UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Dustin Stoltzfus defeats Mansur Abdul-Malik by Submission
Round 2 · 4:25
Abdul-Malik vs Stoltzfus · UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
At a glance
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The first round was competitive and close, with Stoltzfus working his jab, closing distance into a body lock and landing a spinning elbow along the fence without being able to take the fight down.
The second turned on his hands rather than his grappling. Stoltzfus stunned Abdul-Malik with right hands on the feet and backed him to the cage, and once he had him hurt he brought the fight to the mat, passed through a guillotine attempt and finished with the rear-naked choke at 4:25. The upset took one of the night’s $100,000 performance bonuses.
- Official event identityUFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
- Upset finish reportYahoo Sports · UFC 330 highlights: Stoltzfus shocks Abdul-Malik with upset submission
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Abdul-Malik
Abdul-Malik's path is to keep Stoltzfus under immediate pressure and make the veteran solve power exchanges before he can establish his own rhythm.
Case for Stoltzfus
Stoltzfus's route is to drag the fight away from a single early exchange and test Abdul-Malik once the first attack is denied.
What We Were Watching For
- Stoltzfus's first answer to Abdul-Malik's pressure and power.
- Whether Abdul-Malik can reset after a defended finishing sequence.
- The difference between a quick middleweight firefight and a longer tactical contest.
- Which fighter gets to choose the next phase after the first clinch.
Records & career stats
- 9-1-1
- Record
- 16-8-0
- 3-1-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-3 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- United States
- 28
- Age
- 34
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 4.50
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 45%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 80%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 07:50
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
- Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 68.8% 66 30
- Method Accuracy 42.6% 20 27
- Round Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 22 11
- Method Accuracy 53.8% 7 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39
- Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 22 16
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
- Round Accuracy 7.7% 1 12
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 51.5% 17 16
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Underdog Accuracy 22.2% 2 7
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 51.3% 20 19
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 9 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 9
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 19 19
- Method Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
- Round Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 26 27
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 63.2% 24 14
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round Accuracy 22.2% 2 7
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31
- Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; AJ Devito Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; Michael Chiesa Miss; James Lynch Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Brent Brookhouse Hit; Half The Battle Miss; Brian Campbell Miss; Michael Mormile Miss; Shakiel Mahjouri Miss; Brandon Wise Miss; Alexander K. Lee Miss; Chris Schweppe Hit; Jesse Holland Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls Abdul-Malik by second-round knockout. “I think that Abdul Malik is probably going to KO him in the second round.” Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasleView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R1 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Expects Mansur Abdul-Malik to overwhelm Stoltzfus with wrestling and ground-and-pound for a first-round TKO. “likes to keep his back on the fence. So, I'm going with Mansour by a first round TKO. Easiest win on the card.” Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
AJ Devito
AJ DevitoView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls Abdul-Malik by KO on the strength of his athleticism, wrestling and finishing profile. “Yeah, I like the KO. Plus 100 Malik by KO.” Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEYView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls Abdul-Malik by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. “So, yeah, I'm going Mensur Abdul-Malik. Probably takes him down, probably cracks him with a big shot, then takes him down, just finishes him off with ground and pound. I'll go Mensur Abdul-Malik. I'll say second round TKO, ground and pound.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 96 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KennyOkoyeMMA
KennyOkoyeMMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Selects Abdul-Malik in the full-card prediction segment. “So I'm gonna go Manzer Abdul Malik.” Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Chiesa
Michael ChiesaView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes Abdul-Malik but explicitly does not expect a finish. “I'm taking Abdul Malik.” Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
James Lynch
James LynchView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls Abdul-Malik by second-round TKO, expecting Stoltzfus to be matched to make prospects look good. “I'll go second round TKO here for Mansour Abdul Malik.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMAView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls Abdul-Malik by TKO in either round one or two, so no single round is recorded. “clip Dustin and Dustin won't even know it hit him. Give me Mansor Abdul Malik by round one or round two TKO.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The NumbersView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Favors Abdul-Malik's athleticism and striking over Stoltzfus's defense, while noting concern over Abdul-Malik's urgency. “I'm going to go Maner to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want PicksView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| The hosts explicitly reconfirm that they both picked Abdul-Malik. “get better and go from there. Either way, Jake and I both picked Mansour here.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Brent Brookhouse
Brent BrookhouseView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 14.5%. Stoltzfus · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
| CBS Sports' UFC 330 expert-picks table lists Brookhouse on Stoltzfus by second-round TKO. Track record: winner called in 24 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The BattleView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Abdul-Malik winner-only. “But regardless, I'm going to pick Maner Abdul Malik to win this fight.” Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Brian Campbell
Brian CampbellView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| CBS Sports' UFC 330 expert-picks table lists Campbell on Abdul-Malik by second-round TKO. Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Mormile
Michael MormileView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R1 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| CBS Sports' UFC 330 expert-picks table lists Mormile on Abdul-Malik by first-round KO. Track record: winner called in 17 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Shakiel Mahjouri
Shakiel MahjouriView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R1 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| CBS Sports' UFC 330 expert-picks table lists Mahjouri on Abdul-Malik by first-round KO. Track record: winner called in 20 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Brandon Wise
Brandon WiseView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| CBS Sports' UFC 330 expert-picks table lists Wise on Abdul-Malik by second-round KO. Track record: winner called in 19 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Alexander K. Lee
Alexander K. LeeView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R1 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Fighting's UFC 330 predictions article has Alexander K. Lee picking Mansur Abdul-Malik by first-round knockout. Track record: winner called in 6 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Schweppe
Chris SchweppeView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Underdog call, market price 14.5%. Stoltzfus · Dec | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Chris Schweppe's UFC 330 fight-picks article has him picking Dustin Stoltzfus by decision. Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jesse Holland
Jesse HollandView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Historic market Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Mania's UFC 330 preview has Jesse Holland picking Mansur Abdul-Malik by technical knockout. Track record: winner called in 26 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Only 2 of 19 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
Videos
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