MMA betting show hosted by Paul Shaughnessy and Cody Saftic, covering UFC picks, props, and market angles.
Bookie Beatdown on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 14 of 24 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 14 10
- Method 1 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 4
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows, so its flattening is arithmetic, not a verdict: read where a line sits, and read the vs. the field strip for whether this analyst gained or lost ground on the rest of the roster. Winner is scored on every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
Bookie Beatdown scored 59.7 after 4 cards, against a ranked field spanning 59.7 to 92.5. Also plotted: TheWeasle (#1).
59.7 now, across 4 cards. The first 3 cards are drawn dashed and hollow: below 20 resolved calls there is no published score yet. The shaded band is where the whole ranked field sits — 59.7 to 92.5 across 18 analysts, this one included.
14 of 24 — 58% now, from 100% at their first scored card. The first 1 point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
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Method
1 of 3 correct winners that named a method — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
20% 1 of 5 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Round — No round calls
Card by card
Newest card first — the charts above run oldest to newest. One mark per scored call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 330 59.7 4 hit · 4 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 64.1 5 hit · 2 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 55.6 4 hit · 4 miss
- UFC 329 100.0 1 hit · 0 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 4
- MethodNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · to win | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Dern, citing her broader grappling and striking edge and Robertson's five-round uncertainty. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts agree on Álvarez; only one specifies submission, so the channel consensus is recorded winner-only. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · to win | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts explicitly settle on Fernandes, with a live-betting caveat that does not change the pick. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Johnson; the finish talk remains conditional, so no method is recorded. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Luque · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts settle on Luque for the same stated matchup reasons. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Fernando, characterizing him as the more finished product. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Magny · to win | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Magny; the discussed round-three prop is not stored as a method prediction. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.17 — (50% − 41.5%) ÷ 50%. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts ultimately endorse Orolbai by submission; the shared method is confirmed in the closing slate. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 2
- Method 1
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Salkilld · to win | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts favour Salkilld — the five-round distance is what tips it — but they name different methods, so none is recorded. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans on Sutherland's cardio for a decision win. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Names Nurgozhay by knockout as the official pick. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to win | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Leans Asplund for a finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to win | Sousa · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans Miranda without a firm method. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller, hedging between a TKO and a submission. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Foro · to win | Foro · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Foro without a method. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 4 4
- Method 2
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 22.5%. Rodriguez · to win | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Medic a coin-flip fighter who is a defensive liability and says the price is far too short, so he takes the underdog, expecting Rodriguez to have the edge if the fight escapes the first round. “I'm going to go with Daniel Rodriguez for this main event being that the line is just way off to me.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 22.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Blachowicz is 43 and a step slow, while Stirling is 28, 6'4" and still improving; expects Stirling to be quicker to the punch and win at range, but thinks Blachowicz is too durable to finish. “[Stirling] by decision would be the official pick.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · to win | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Rakic on speed and leg kicks moving up to heavyweight, while flatly refusing to bet him at the price because of the chin, the cardio and Tybura's grappling. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Treats it as a 50/50 fight where Valentin is KO-or-bust with almost no volume, so he takes the home fighter on the grappling edge and the plus-money price. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Cepo · to win | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Lands on Cepo because Urbina is chinny and has been violently knocked out repeatedly, even though Cepo is defensively sloppy and easy to take down. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Rates Oliveira a far better athlete with a stiff jab, reach and power, and sees Elliott as a generalist with takedown and striking-defence holes. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Klein is faster with better striking and a reach advantage, and Musayev's offensive wrestling is not good enough to change that. Calls it their best value play. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Grad's relentless pressure, high work rate and takedowns beat Buzukja, described as a generalist with no volume and no power to make Grad respect him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner 1
- MethodCalls the winner, not the method
- RoundCalls the winner, not the round
- UnderdogNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · to win | Basharat · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
They acknowledge Garza's pressure, crowd-friendly style, youth and short-notice upside, but frame the UFC debut as too much too soon. Their read is that Basharat can manage close rounds with footwork, takedowns and clinch control, while Garza's wrestling defense and durability remain the major concerns. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Bookie Beatdown's logged calls.