Bantamweights collide at #UFCEdmonton! 🏹🇨🇦 Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler 🇺🇸 TOMORROW | @UFCFightPass | Early Prelims 5pmET
View video on X ↗UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Chelsea Chandler defeats Melissa Croden by Submission
Submission · kimura
Round 1 · 4:52
Croden vs Chandler — Women's Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(72) 96%
4% (3)
AI Predictions
64%
36%
Market Odds
74%
26%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The opening exchanges were competitive. After Croden took her down late in the round, Chandler rolled through a sweep into top position, landed strikes and secured the submission.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Croden
Croden is 8-3, per UFC, and her recent UFC wins include a decision over Daria Zhelezniakova and a third-round TKO of Tainara Lisboa. Her 4.27 significant strikes per minute and 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes give her both a volume and an entry-based route against Chandler.
Case for Chandler
Chandler is 7-4, per UFC, and her latest fight was a first-round armbar win over Priscila Cachoeira after a TKO loss to Joselyne Edwards. Her 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.27 submission attempts are lower than Croden's, so she needs to make her own recent submission finish count while avoiding Croden's sustained output.
What We Were Watching For
- Can Croden use her 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes to build on her recent win over Zheleznyakova?
- Does Chandler carry the Cachoeira armbar threat into transitions against Croden?
- Will Croden's 4.27 significant strikes landed per minute outpace Chandler's 3.52 landed per minute?
Records & career stats
- 4.27 3.52
- 59% 40%
- 2.13 4.27
- 67% 25%
- 88% 63%
- 8-3-0
- Record
- 7-4-0
- Source pending
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Source pending
- Canada
- Nationality
- United States
- 35
- Age
- 35
- Source pending
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Source pending
- 14:51
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:15
- Alavanca
- Team
- Gracie Fighter Stockton
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(72) 96%
LCroden
4% (3)
ChandlerW
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
FightIQ predicts Melissa Croden at 77% confidence.
“We predict Melissa Croden — 77% confident”
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Jimbo Ortega MMA selects Melissa Croden by decision.
“I'll go decision for Croin Completely unbiased commentary there”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 38 18
- Method Accuracy 62.1% 18 11
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“So give me Melissa Croin by knockout”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
AJ Devito
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
AJ expects Croden's straighter striking and takedown defense to carry her to a decision.
“So, I'll take Croin by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
JakeGerberMMA leans toward Melissa Croden to outwork Chelsea Chandler and win on the scorecards.
“going to lean in the direction of Melissa Cronin to just outwork Chelsea Chandler and get this one done on the scorecards. I'll say 2928.”
* Auto-captions render Croden as “Cronin”; the official bout roster identifies Melissa Croden. The score is captioned as “2928.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Fite Feed
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
The speaker expects Croden’s persistent takedowns and gritty style to produce a ground-and-pound finish.
“I think she'll end up just landing some big ground and pound, and getting a KO in round number two.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.9% 24 13
- Method Accuracy 60.9% 14 9
- Round Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He favors Melissa Croden to wear Chelsea Chandler down and finish by TKO, later specifying the second round.
“So, I'm going Melissa Croin. I think it's going to be a TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
138 MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
138 MMA picks Melissa Croden after saying she has Chelsea Chandler covered in most areas; the auto-captions garble the name.
“I got to take Croin.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Mate Bersenadze
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Mate Bersenadze explicitly predicts Melissa Croden by decision.
“Melissa Croden over Chelsea Chandler by decision”
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.5% 33 19
- Method Accuracy 51.5% 17 16
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Drake Burden selects Melissa Croden to win.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Livid Larry MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He expects Croden's offensive wrestling and pace to exploit Chandler's takedown defense.
“but Melissa Croden will be the pick here. By decision is my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.0% 34 20
- Method Accuracy 79.2% 19 5
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He favors Croden’s scrappiness and predicts a decision; captions render her surname as “Crogen.”
“Melissa Crogen gets it done, decision win.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
HopperMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“Yeah I'm going to go Melissa Croin by grounding pound TKO in round one”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
James Lynch
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Edmonton staff-picks table lists Croden as James Lynch’s winner.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.0% 36 23
- Method Accuracy 45.0% 9 11
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
James leans Croden for her cardio, pace, and pressure, and makes her his official decision pick while noting Chandler’s early danger.
“my official prediction to win via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Garrett Kerman
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
ClutchPoints selects Melissa Croden by decision.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.6% (20 hit, 13 miss, across 33 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 33 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.6% 20 13
- Method Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Combat Edge Model
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Combat Edge Model selects Melissa Croden as its model lean (58%) against Chelsea Chandler. The event card describes a point-in-time model using Elo, records, and matchup data and says forecasts freeze before fight night. It provides win probabilities, not a selected method or round.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Jacob Lines
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Picks Melissa Croden and expects her to have a first- or second-round winning opportunity.
“so I like Melissa in this one but I think she can win it in the first round or second round”
Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
Owen Liao
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Melissa Croden to win.
“Melissa Croden to win”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (9 hit, 6 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 9 6
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
MMA Mathletes
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
One host says Croden is strong in Canada and her loss to Lana Santos is not a bad one. The other host picks Melissa, doubts Chandler's grappling and gas tank, and expects Croden to control the striking and steamroll for three rounds.
“I have Melissa Croin in this fight.”
* The first host says the fight will probably go to a decision; the second does not state a method. Captions garble Croden's surname as “Scarecroen,” “Croin,” and “Cronin.” Both hosts select Melissa, and their surrounding bout discussion identifies Croden vs. Chandler.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 32 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Fight Genie (Claude)
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Fight Genie Claude selects Melissa Croden over Chelsea Chandler by decision. Croden’s wrestling and striking differential target Chandler’s weak takedown defense, though Chandler retains a submission route. Fight Genie states that its displayed probabilities blend model and market inputs; its method page says the pick itself is independent.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 16 11
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 8 8
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) selects Melissa Croden; no round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 16 11
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Tim Edwards
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Edwards lists Melissa Croden as his moneyline best bet, favoring her sharper offense.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.8% 20 14
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He considers Croden the better striker and grappler and expects her to out-position, score takedowns, and grind out the decision.
“So, in this one I got Melissa Crowden via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Kunath
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He expects Croden to pick Chandler up, take her down and finish with ground-and-pound.
“So, give me Melissa Croden. Give me Melissa Croden by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Angelo Bodetti
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“I think the speed's going to be too much and I think we're going to have a a big gap in this fight and it will be the athleticism by Melissa Croin”
Track record: winner called in 29 of 50 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.0% (29 hit, 21 miss, across 50 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 50 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.0% 29 21
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Artem favors Croden’s strength, clinch work and defensive advantage over Chandler. He expects either a damage-based decision or Croden securing the takedowns, while acknowledging that the fighter winning the takedown exchanges will likely win.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Litterine explicitly selects Melissa Croden; no method or round is stated.
“UFC EDMONTON PICK: Croden”
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
BetSam
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He considers Croden equally physical but a better striker with a more rounded skill set.
“The pick is Melissa Croin by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.4% (22 hit, 17 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.4% 22 17
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“that's what I'm going to go with i think Croin is going to break Chandler down i think she's going to finish her in the third i will go Melissa Cronin round three knockout”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Fight Genie (GPT)
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Fight Genie GPT selects Melissa Croden over Chelsea Chandler by decision. Croden’s takedown volume and striking advantage support a decision, tempered by Chandler’s recent submission win. Fight Genie states that its displayed probabilities blend model and market inputs; its method page says the pick itself is independent.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Method Accuracy 53.3% 8 7
- Round Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
MMA.SOCIAL
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMA.SOCIAL selects Melissa Croden by decision; no round is stated.
“Croden by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Clenbat
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
The speaker favors Croden's ground defense, toughness, and striking over Chandler's consistently underwhelming performances.
“I'm going to pick Croin over here, guys.”
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Kasper MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He favors Croden's striking output and physicality, expecting effective combinations and takedowns to control the fight.
“So, I'm picking Croin to win by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
- Method Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Anatoly Pimentel
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Anatoly Pimentel predicts Melissa Croden by decision over Chelsea Chandler.
“A decision win for Croden over Chandler is my prediction”
Track record: winner called in 12 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (12 hit, 10 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Edmonton staff-picks table lists Croden as Cole Shelton’s winner.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
TonyHasDiedMMA picks Melissa Croden to finish Chelsea Chandler by second-round knockout.
“I'm going to pick Melissa Croin to finish Chelsea Chandler ... knock her out in round two of this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
Locked Door MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
They expect Croden’s toughness and pressure in Canada to carry her; the co-host says she is better overall.
“at home in Canada, we think she's just better all around.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 19 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.6% (10 hit, 9 miss, across 19 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 19 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 19 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 19 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Edmonton staff-picks table lists Croden as MikesMMAPicks’s winner.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“I'm going to pick Melissa Croin to win this fight”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Steve Garcia
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“Give me uh Melissa Croin”
Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (15 hit, 14 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Andy Lang
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Andy Lang names Melissa Croden as the pick; he does not specify a method or round.
“Croden is the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 18 17
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Greedo selects Melissa Croden over Chelsea Chandler by decision; the captions render Croden as “Cronin.”
“So, Melissa Cronin to beat Chelsea Chandler by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Bookie Beatdown
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“if there's one Canadian on this card that I feel probably should win this fight it is Melissa Croin”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.1% (23 hit, 22 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (4 hit, 7 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.1% 23 22
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
Walk The Line MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Teller expects Croden's physical strength, clinch work, takedowns and cardio to let her increase the pace and win the later rounds. He thinks Chandler can score at range against Croden's defensive openings, particularly if Croden starts slowly. He nevertheless selects Croden by decision while seeing the money-line value on Chandler.
* He sees Chandler as live to win rounds at range and considers the favorite's price too wide.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 27 27
- Method Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
The Die Hard MMA Podcast
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
“so I'll say Crowden by decision”
Track record: winner called in 7 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (7 hit, 7 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 7 7
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Cagemath CORTEX SHARP V10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Cagemath's CORTEX SHARP V10 selects Melissa Croden at 76% confidence, citing her striking differential and takedown defense.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
mmadbm
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He expects Croden to secure better positions and have slightly more success on the feet.
“Croin by decision is my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 12 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Edmonton staff-picks table lists Croden as Nick Kalikas’s winner.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Bert MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Bert MMA favors Melissa Croden’s striking volume, kicks and cardio in a fight he expects to take place mostly on the feet. He allows Chelsea Chandler some takedowns and possibly a round through wrestling, but picks Croden by unanimous decision.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.2% (17 hit, 19 miss, across 36 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 36 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 36 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (4 hit, 7 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 36 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
Zain Bando
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Edmonton staff-picks table lists Croden as Zain Bando’s winner.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.2% (17 hit, 19 miss, across 36 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 36 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
MMA JAWN
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMA JAWN expects Croden to win minutes with her striking, defense and takedowns, and predicts a unanimous decision.
“the pick's going to be Melissa Croin, and I think she gets it done by unanimous decision.”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.1% (16 hit, 18 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.1% 16 18
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
The speaker favors Croden's cardio, late-round performance, and ability to regain her feet after takedowns.
“give me Melissa Croin by 2928 decision,”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Adam Martin favors Melissa Croden to take Chelsea Chandler down and finish with ground-and-pound; he specifies a third-round knockout.
“I think she takes her down, grounded pounds her and like wins like third round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 6 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 83.3% (5 hit, 1 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
- Method Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Marcel Dorff
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Marcel Dorff picks Melissa Croden by decision, calling it a favorable matchup and explicitly declining to predict a finish.
“I'm going with the decision win again. It's safe again, but I'm going with decision win again. I'm not going with a finish.”
Track record: winner called in 6 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (4 hit, 2 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Drew Beaupre
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Drew Beaupre explicitly selects Croden.
“Pick: Croden”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.8% (11 hit, 13 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.8% 11 13
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
FightStudy
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
FightStudy selects Croden by Decision.
“Prediction: Croden by DEC”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.8% (11 hit, 13 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 72.7% (8 hit, 3 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.8% 11 13
- Method Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
The Sports Scientist
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
He favors Croden's tools, experience, and home crowd support while acknowledging Chandler's ground threat.
“you know, give me give me Croin to win here by decision, by unanimous decision.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.5% (10 hit, 12 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 83.3% (5 hit, 1 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.5% 10 12
- Method Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Andrew Sumian
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Andrew Sumian selects Melissa Croden to win.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.0% 18 22
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Matthew Petela
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Matthew Petela selects Melissa Croden to win.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.0% 18 22
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
BennyPMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
BennyPMMA selects Melissa Croden by Decision.
““I’ll go Cronin here. Let’s just pick Croden. She’ll get this one done.””
Track record: winner called in 9 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 42.9% (9 hit, 12 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 42.9% 9 12
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
MMA Gambling Podcast
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Both MMA Gambling Podcast hosts select the Canadian fighter captioned as “Croin.” One host says the roughly 3-to-1 line is not a good bet but explicitly maintains the pick; the official UFC card identifies her as Melissa Croden.
“I'm going with the Canadian Croin. I think she's better everywhere.”
Track record: winner called in 3 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Lightning MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
No reason is stated for this pick.
“Melissa Croden by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 42.3% (11 hit, 15 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.0% (6 hit, 2 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 42.3% 11 15
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Round Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
The Lab Analytics
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
The Lab Analytics selects Melissa Croden at 63.3% and labels the pick Lean (informational — do not bet). The source describes Lean picks as informational and says not to bet; this records the model's selected winner without presenting it as betting advice. The method estimates are explicitly indicative, so method and round are omitted.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 10 15
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
Kyle Marley
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
SportsLine reports that Kyle Marley backs Melissa Croden to beat Chelsea Chandler by unanimous decision.
Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Edmonton staff-picks table lists Croden as Chris White’s winner.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Alexander K. Lee
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Alexander K. Lee explicitly selects Croden.
“Melissa Croden def. Chelsea Chandler”
Track record: winner called in 14 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 38.9% (14 hit, 22 miss, across 36 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 36 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 36 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 38.9% 14 22
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
AI Sports Metrics
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
AI Sports Metrics explicitly labels Melissa Croden as its AI/model pick against Chelsea Chandler. The page provides separate outcome probabilities but no explicit winner-specific method or round prediction, so those fields are omitted. AI Sports Metrics identifies its UFC model as a fight-level probability beside the devigged market and warns the current MMA winner model has not beaten closing market.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
FunkyBunch MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
The speaker expects Croden's speed, technique, output, and takedowns to overwhelm Chandler.
“pick is going to be Croden. Low medium confidence in the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 33.3% (5 hit, 10 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 5 10
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
SideswipeMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
SideswipeMMA selects Melissa Croden over Chelsea Chandler and includes Croden in a stated double to win. The separate R2/R3 prop is conditional and does not name one method or a single round.
“Croden has her way with Chandler”
* Winner-only pick. The separate prop is Croden to win in rounds 2 or 3 at +300 or better; do not treat it as a specific method or single-round prediction.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
FIGHT//AI explicitly labels Melissa Croden as its AI/model pick against Chelsea Chandler. The page provides separate outcome probabilities but no explicit winner-specific method or round prediction, so those fields are omitted. FIGHT//AI says its displayed probability blends model, market, and fan-sentiment inputs.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Maiden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Croden · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Maiden selects Melissa Croden by decision; no round is stated.
“Maiden picks Melissa Croden (62%) by decision over Chelsea Chandler.”
Track record: winner called in 0 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Tony Sink
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chelsea Chandler
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
DocSports author Tony Sink explicitly selects Chelsea Chandler.
“Tony Sink's Pick: Take Chelsea Chandler (+225)”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (11 hit, 6 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 11 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chelsea Chandler · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Chris Schweppe picks Chelsea Chandler by split decision.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Brandon K
Current pick evidence
Picked: Chelsea Chandler · Dec
Fight result: Chelsea Chandler · Submission
Brandon K selects Chelsea Chandler by Decision.
““I’m going to take Chelsea Chandler by decision here.””
Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 44.4% 20 25
- Method Accuracy 42.9% 6 8
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Analyst picks: FightIQ Miss; Jimbo Ortega MMA Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; AJ Devito Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; Fite Feed Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Tony Sink Hit; 138 MMA Miss; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Drake Burden Miss; Livid Larry MMA Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Miss; James Lynch Miss; James Blissett Miss; Garrett Kerman Miss; Combat Edge Model Miss; Jacob Lines Miss; Owen Liao Miss; MMA Mathletes Miss; Fight Genie (Claude) Miss; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Miss; Tim Edwards Miss; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Miss; Angelo Bodetti Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; BetSam Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Fight Genie (GPT) Miss; MMA.SOCIAL Miss; Clenbat Miss; Kasper MMA Miss; Anatoly Pimentel Miss; Chris Schweppe Hit; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Locked Door MMA Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Steve Garcia Miss; Andy Lang Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Bookie Beatdown Miss; Walk The Line MMA Miss; The Die Hard MMA Podcast Miss; Cagemath CORTEX SHARP V10 Miss; mmadbm Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Bert MMA Miss; Zain Bando Miss; MMA JAWN Miss; Uselyis Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Marcel Dorff Miss; Drew Beaupre Miss; FightStudy Miss; The Sports Scientist Miss; Andrew Sumian Miss; Matthew Petela Miss; Brandon K Hit; BennyPMMA Miss; MMA Gambling Podcast Miss; Lightning MMA Miss; The Lab Analytics Miss; Kyle Marley Miss; Chris White Miss; Alexander K. Lee Miss; AI Sports Metrics Miss; FunkyBunch MMA Miss; SideswipeMMA Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss; Maiden Miss.
Only 3 of 75 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Chandler · Submission · R1
Closest probability Claude put 45% on Chandler.
68%
Croden
32%
Chandler
PickCroden · DecisionActualChandler · Submission · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
55%
Croden
45%
Chandler
PickCroden · DecisionActualChandler · Submission · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
70%
Croden
30%
Chandler
PickCroden · DecisionActualChandler · Submission · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite callAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Croden
Most likely: Croden by decision, about 35 in 100
Win chance: Croden 68%, Chandler 32%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Croden
Most likely: Croden by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Croden 55%, Chandler 45%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Croden
Most likely: Croden by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Croden 70%, Chandler 30%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Croden.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Croden: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Chandler: 32%.
Claude
Croden: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Chandler: 45%.
Gemini
Croden: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Chandler: 30%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Claude
Croden by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Croden by decision (35%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Chandler by decision (18%)
Claude
1. Croden by decision (37%); 2. Chandler by decision (20%); 3. Chandler by submission (13%)
Gemini
1. Croden by decision (46%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Chandler by decision (15%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Croden's 68% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Croden's 55% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Croden's 70% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 39%. Decision: 61%.
How does Croden win?
ChatGPT
Croden wins 68%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%, decision 35%.
Claude
Croden wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
Gemini
Croden wins 70%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 46%.
How does Chandler win?
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 18%.
Claude
Chandler wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Chandler wins 30%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%, decision 15%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (18%).
Claude
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (20%).
Gemini
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (15%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Croden.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (35%).
Claude
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (37%).
Gemini
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (46%).
More questions (18)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 33%, submission 14%, decision 53%.
Claude
KO/TKO 22%, submission 21%, decision 57%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 26%, submission 13%, decision 61%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Croden: 33%, against 14% for Chandler.
Claude
Chandler: 25%, against 18% for Croden.
Gemini
Croden: 24%, against 15% for Chandler.
Can Croden get the finish? Can Chandler?
ChatGPT
Croden: 33% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%). Chandler: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%).
Claude
Croden: 18% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%). Chandler: 25% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%).
Gemini
Croden: 24% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%). Chandler: 15% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Croden is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%. Chandler is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 6%.
Claude
Croden is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 13%. Chandler is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Croden is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 7%. Chandler is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35%. Chandler by decision: 18%.
Claude
Croden by decision: 37%. Chandler by decision: 20%.
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46%. Chandler by decision: 15%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Chandler wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Chandler wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
53%.
Claude
57%.
Gemini
61%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Croden 66%, Chandler 34%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Croden 65%, Chandler 35%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Croden 75%, Chandler 25%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Croden by decision, 46% here against 36% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (68%).
Claude
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (55%).
Gemini
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (70%).
Which model is most confident on Croden, and which on Chandler?
All models
On Croden: Gemini (70%). On Chandler: Claude (45%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
All models
Kyle Marley (Croden by decision), James Blissett (Croden by decision), BennyPMMA (Croden by decision), AJ Devito (Croden by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Croden by decision), MMA JAWN (Croden by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Croden by decision), Artem MMA (Croden by decision), Bert MMA (Croden by decision), The Die Hard MMA Podcast (Croden by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Croden by decision), MMA Mathletes (Croden by decision), Maiden (Croden by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Croden by decision), FightIQ (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Croden by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Croden by decision), FightStudy (Croden by decision), BetSam (Croden by decision), FunkyBunch MMA (Croden by decision), Kasper MMA (Croden by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Croden by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Croden by decision), Lightning MMA (Croden by decision), mmadbm (Croden by decision), The Sports Scientist (Croden by decision), Uselyis (Croden by decision), Marcel Dorff (Croden by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Croden by decision), Anatoly Pimentel (Croden by decision), MMA JOEY (Croden by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Croden by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Croden, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 15 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 17 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 15 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Claude
Yes.
Gemini
No.
ChatGPT
Pick
Croden
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Croden by decision, about 35 in 100
Win chance: Croden 68%, Chandler 32%.
Most likely outcomes
- Croden by decision35%
- Croden by KO/TKO27%
- Chandler by decision18%
- KO/TKO: Croden 27%, Chandler 6%.
- Submission: Croden 6%, Chandler 8%.
- Decision: Croden 35%, Chandler 18%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Croden: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Chandler: 32%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Croden: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Chandler: 45%.
Gemini
Croden: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Chandler: 30%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Croden by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Croden by decision (35%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Chandler by decision (18%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Croden by decision (37%); 2. Chandler by decision (20%); 3. Chandler by submission (13%)
Gemini
1. Croden by decision (46%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Chandler by decision (15%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Croden's 68% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Croden's 55% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Croden's 70% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 39%. Decision: 61%.
How does Croden win?
ChatGPT
Croden wins 68%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%, decision 35%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Croden wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
Gemini
Croden wins 70%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 46%.
How does Chandler win?
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 18%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Chandler wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Chandler wins 30%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%, decision 15%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (18%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (20%).
Gemini
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (15%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Croden.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (35%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (37%).
Gemini
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (46%).
More questions (17)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 33%, submission 14%, decision 53%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 22%, submission 21%, decision 57%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 26%, submission 13%, decision 61%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Croden: 33%, against 14% for Chandler.
Other models' answers
Claude
Chandler: 25%, against 18% for Croden.
Gemini
Croden: 24%, against 15% for Chandler.
Can Croden get the finish? Can Chandler?
ChatGPT
Croden: 33% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%). Chandler: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Croden: 18% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%). Chandler: 25% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%).
Gemini
Croden: 24% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%). Chandler: 15% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Croden is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%. Chandler is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 6%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Croden is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 13%. Chandler is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Croden is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 7%. Chandler is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35%. Chandler by decision: 18%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Croden by decision: 37%. Chandler by decision: 20%.
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46%. Chandler by decision: 15%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Chandler wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Chandler wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
53%.
Other models' answers
Claude
57%.
Gemini
61%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Croden 66%, Chandler 34%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Croden 65%, Chandler 35%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Croden 75%, Chandler 25%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (68%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (55%).
Gemini
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (70%).
Which model is most confident on Croden, and which on Chandler?
ChatGPT
On Croden: Gemini (70%). On Chandler: Claude (45%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Kyle Marley (Croden by decision), James Blissett (Croden by decision), BennyPMMA (Croden by decision), AJ Devito (Croden by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Croden by decision), MMA JAWN (Croden by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Croden by decision), Artem MMA (Croden by decision), Bert MMA (Croden by decision), The Die Hard MMA Podcast (Croden by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Croden by decision), MMA Mathletes (Croden by decision), Maiden (Croden by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Croden by decision), FightIQ (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Croden by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Croden by decision), FightStudy (Croden by decision), BetSam (Croden by decision), FunkyBunch MMA (Croden by decision), Kasper MMA (Croden by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Croden by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Croden by decision), Lightning MMA (Croden by decision), mmadbm (Croden by decision), The Sports Scientist (Croden by decision), Uselyis (Croden by decision), Marcel Dorff (Croden by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Croden by decision), Anatoly Pimentel (Croden by decision), MMA JOEY (Croden by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Croden by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Croden, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 15 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 17 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 15 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 15 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Croden
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Croden by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Croden 55%, Chandler 45%.
Most likely outcomes
- Croden by decision37%
- Chandler by decision20%
- Chandler by submission13%
- KO/TKO: Croden 10%, Chandler 12%.
- Submission: Croden 8%, Chandler 13%.
- Decision: Croden 37%, Chandler 20%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Croden: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Chandler: 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Chandler: 32%.
Gemini
Croden: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Chandler: 30%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Croden by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Croden by decision (37%); 2. Chandler by decision (20%); 3. Chandler by submission (13%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Croden by decision (35%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Chandler by decision (18%)
Gemini
1. Croden by decision (46%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Chandler by decision (15%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Croden's 55% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Croden's 68% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Croden's 70% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 39%. Decision: 61%.
How does Croden win?
Claude
Croden wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden wins 68%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%, decision 35%.
Gemini
Croden wins 70%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 46%.
How does Chandler win?
Claude
Chandler wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 18%.
Gemini
Chandler wins 30%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%, decision 15%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (18%).
Gemini
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (15%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Croden.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (37%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (35%).
Gemini
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (46%).
More questions (17)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 22%, submission 21%, decision 57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 33%, submission 14%, decision 53%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 26%, submission 13%, decision 61%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Chandler: 25%, against 18% for Croden.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden: 33%, against 14% for Chandler.
Gemini
Croden: 24%, against 15% for Chandler.
Can Croden get the finish? Can Chandler?
Claude
Croden: 18% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%). Chandler: 25% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden: 33% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%). Chandler: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%).
Gemini
Croden: 24% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%). Chandler: 15% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Croden is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 13%. Chandler is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 8%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%. Chandler is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 6%.
Gemini
Croden is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 7%. Chandler is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Claude
Croden by decision: 37%. Chandler by decision: 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35%. Chandler by decision: 18%.
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46%. Chandler by decision: 15%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Chandler wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Chandler wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
53%.
Gemini
61%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Croden 65%, Chandler 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Croden 66%, Chandler 34%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Croden 75%, Chandler 25%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (55%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (68%).
Gemini
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (70%).
Which model is most confident on Croden, and which on Chandler?
Claude
On Croden: Gemini (70%). On Chandler: Claude (45%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Kyle Marley (Croden by decision), James Blissett (Croden by decision), BennyPMMA (Croden by decision), AJ Devito (Croden by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Croden by decision), MMA JAWN (Croden by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Croden by decision), Artem MMA (Croden by decision), Bert MMA (Croden by decision), The Die Hard MMA Podcast (Croden by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Croden by decision), MMA Mathletes (Croden by decision), Maiden (Croden by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Croden by decision), FightIQ (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Croden by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Croden by decision), FightStudy (Croden by decision), BetSam (Croden by decision), FunkyBunch MMA (Croden by decision), Kasper MMA (Croden by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Croden by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Croden by decision), Lightning MMA (Croden by decision), mmadbm (Croden by decision), The Sports Scientist (Croden by decision), Uselyis (Croden by decision), Marcel Dorff (Croden by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Croden by decision), Anatoly Pimentel (Croden by decision), MMA JOEY (Croden by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Croden by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Croden, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 17 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 15 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 15 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
No.
Gemini
No.
claude-sonnet-5-5 · 17 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Croden
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Croden by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Croden 70%, Chandler 30%.
Most likely outcomes
- Croden by decision46%
- Croden by KO/TKO18%
- Chandler by decision15%
- KO/TKO: Croden 18%, Chandler 8%.
- Submission: Croden 6%, Chandler 7%.
- Decision: Croden 46%, Chandler 15%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Croden: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Chandler: 30%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Chandler: 32%.
Claude
Croden: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Chandler: 45%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Claude
Croden by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Croden by decision (46%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Chandler by decision (15%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Croden by decision (35%); 2. Croden by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Chandler by decision (18%)
Claude
1. Croden by decision (37%); 2. Chandler by decision (20%); 3. Chandler by submission (13%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Croden's 70% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Croden's 68% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Croden's 55% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 39%. Decision: 61%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 43%. Decision: 57%.
How does Croden win?
Gemini
Croden wins 70%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%, decision 46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden wins 68%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%, decision 35%.
Claude
Croden wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
How does Chandler win?
Gemini
Chandler wins 30%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%, decision 15%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%, decision 18%.
Claude
Chandler wins 45%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (15%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (18%).
Claude
Chandler's most likely upset: Chandler by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Croden.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (46%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (35%).
Claude
Result: Chandler by submission in round 1. Chandler by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Croden by decision (37%).
More questions (18)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 26%, submission 13%, decision 61%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 33%, submission 14%, decision 53%.
Claude
KO/TKO 22%, submission 21%, decision 57%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Croden: 24%, against 15% for Chandler.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden: 33%, against 14% for Chandler.
Claude
Chandler: 25%, against 18% for Croden.
Can Croden get the finish? Can Chandler?
Gemini
Croden: 24% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 6%). Chandler: 15% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 7%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden: 33% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 6%). Chandler: 14% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 8%).
Claude
Croden: 18% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 8%). Chandler: 25% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 13%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Croden is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 7%. Chandler is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 6%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 8%. Chandler is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 6%.
Claude
Croden is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 13%. Chandler is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 8%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Croden by decision: 46%. Chandler by decision: 15%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Croden by decision: 35%. Chandler by decision: 18%.
Claude
Croden by decision: 37%. Chandler by decision: 20%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Chandler wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Chandler wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Chandler wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
61%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
53%.
Claude
57%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Croden 75%, Chandler 25%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Croden 66%, Chandler 34%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Croden 65%, Chandler 35%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Croden by decision, 46% here against 36% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (70%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (68%).
Claude
Of 75 analyst picks, 72 back Croden and 3 back Chandler. This model picks Croden (55%).
Which model is most confident on Croden, and which on Chandler?
Gemini
On Croden: Gemini (70%). On Chandler: Claude (45%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Kyle Marley (Croden by decision), James Blissett (Croden by decision), BennyPMMA (Croden by decision), AJ Devito (Croden by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Croden by decision), MMA JAWN (Croden by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Croden by decision), Artem MMA (Croden by decision), Bert MMA (Croden by decision), The Die Hard MMA Podcast (Croden by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Croden by decision), MMA Mathletes (Croden by decision), Maiden (Croden by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Croden by decision), FightIQ (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Croden by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Croden by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Croden by decision), FightStudy (Croden by decision), BetSam (Croden by decision), FunkyBunch MMA (Croden by decision), Kasper MMA (Croden by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Croden by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Croden by decision), Lightning MMA (Croden by decision), mmadbm (Croden by decision), The Sports Scientist (Croden by decision), Uselyis (Croden by decision), Marcel Dorff (Croden by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Croden by decision), Anatoly Pimentel (Croden by decision), MMA JOEY (Croden by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Croden by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Croden, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 15 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 15 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 17 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
No.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes.
Version not reported · 15 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
74%
Melissa Croden
26%
Chelsea Chandler
Favoured: Croden (74%) Upset
Chandler defeats Croden · Sub R1
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.