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Scorecard
Called 5 of 14 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
5 of 14 — 36% now, from 33% at their first scored card.
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Method
1 of 2 correct winners that named a method — too few to chart a trend.
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Round
0 of 1 correct winner that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
0 of 4 priced underdog calls — too few to chart a trend.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Crypto.com UFC 331 3 hit · 4 miss
- UFC 329 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 2 hit · 4 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · to win | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · to win | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · to win | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 27.2%. Ruffy · to win | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 27.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 28.5%. McGregor · KO/TKO · R2 | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Lightning MMA gives a transcript-verified UFC 329 main-event pick for Conor McGregor by KO/TKO in round 2. “Second round knockout, Conor McGregor.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 28.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 40.5%. Garcia · KO/TKO · R2 | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Steve Garcia by second-round TKO, with decision retained as an alternative in the transcript. “Diego against Steve Casia. Let's go with the American Steve Casia by second round TKO. Maybe a decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · Dec | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Bo Nickal by decision. “Bone Nickel against K Dawkins. We got to go with Bone Nickel by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 19.0%. Chandler · Dec | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Michael Chandler by decision. “Michael Chandler against Mauricio Rafi or Rafi against Michael Chandler. We got to go with Michael Chandler. ... Chandler by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 19.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Josh Hokit to win by first-round knockout; the video explicitly identifies the canonical Lewis–Hokit matchup. “Derek Lewis against Josh Hockett. ... I believe Josh can knock him out with his speed in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R3 | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Alex Pereira by third-round knockout. “What a fight, man. What a fight Alex against Sir Gan, you know. ... Alex Pereira by third round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ilia Topuria; the transcript contains contradictory round wording, so no method or round is inferred. “the main event, Ilia Topuri against Justin Gi. Third round first round knockout for Ilia Tupurya.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Lightning MMA's logged calls.