UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Diego Lopes defeats Steve Garcia by KO/TKO
Lopes vs Garcia — Featherweight · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Garcia got the better of the exchanges in the opening round.
Early in round two, Garcia sat Lopes down with a clean left hand.
Lopes answered by connecting with his own shots, and after Garcia tried to fire back, Lopes pounded out the finish.
- Official UFC resultsUFC · UFC Freedom 250 results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Lopes
A relentless, finish-hunting featherweight who challenged for the title and owns wins over Brian Ortega and Dan Ige. Lopes is dangerous in every phase — slick submissions, wild scrambles and real power — and fights at a chaotic pace that overwhelms opponents. He's the more proven, higher-level operator here.
Case for Garcia
Maybe the hottest finisher in the division nobody's talking about — a seven-fight win streak, six by stoppage, with genuine one-shot power in both hands. Garcia is big for 145 lb and hits hard enough to end Lopes's night the instant he gets careless in a scramble.
What We Were Watching For
- Lopes thrives in chaos — does that play into Garcia's power, or into Lopes's scrambles?
- Garcia's finishing streak against the best opponent of his career by a clear margin.
- Can Lopes drag it to the mat and find the submission before Garcia lands clean?
- Two heavy hitters at 145 lb — the first mistake could end it either way.
Records & career stats
- 3.79 5.46
- 47% 60%
- 4.65 2.22
- 69% 89%
- 85% 79%
- 27-8-0
- Record
- 19-5-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- USA
- 31
- Age
- 34
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Southpaw
- 11:34
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 05:58
- Brazilian Warriors / Lobo Gym
- Team
- Jackson Wink MMA Academy - NM
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Diego Lopes
Lopes says his corner told him to go forward after the first round, and he made the pressure adjustment that let him exchange and finish Garcia.Lopes says his corner told him to go forward after the first round, and he made the pressure adjustment that let him exchange and finish Garcia.
- Identified forward pressure as the key corner instruction after round one.
- Said he made the necessary adjustments once Garcia chose to exchange.
- Backed his ability to trade with opponents in the middle of the octagon.
Demetrious Johnson
Demetrious Johnson says Lopes struggled with Garcia’s footwork early, then found the finish once he crossed the gap and committed to combination exchanges.Demetrious Johnson says Lopes struggled with Garcia’s footwork early, then found the finish once he crossed the gap and committed to combination exchanges.
- Highlighted Garcia’s early success taking dominant angles.
- Said Lopes became dangerous when he stopped circling and started fighting through the pocket.
- Credited the drop and second-round finish once Lopes chose to exchange.
We Want Picks
Their pick: Lopes to win · ✓ Hit We Want Picks says Lopes was losing striking exchanges until he committed to throwing, where the power gap immediately changed the fight and produced the finish.We Want Picks says Lopes was losing striking exchanges until he committed to throwing, where the power gap immediately changed the fight and produced the finish.
- Thought Lopes struggled early with Garcia’s striking and footwork.
- Called the power difference obvious once Lopes committed to the exchange.
- Argued Lopes can win more fights if he starts throwing earlier.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · Sub
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Sports Betting Dime's Jaren Kawada predicts Diego Lopes by submission.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 72.7% (8 hit, 3 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Lopes is far more durable than Garcia, who is too open for his own good, so Lopes weathers a chaotic first and knocks him out in the second.
“fights. And that is why I'm going to go with Diego Lopez to win this fight by a”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · Dec
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Diego Lopes as its pick over Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Herrick sides with Lopes because Garcia's knockout streak has not come against Lopes-level opposition. He sees Lopes as better tested, harder to hurt, and likely to win a competitive three-round fight on the scorecards.
- Garcia is dangerous, but has not beaten this tier of featherweight
- Lopes has already shown durability against elite opposition
- Calls the pick medium-high confidence, around 65-70%
“With my pick, I'm going to go with Lopez. I got that at probably decision.”
Track record: winner called in 7 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (7 hit, 3 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 7 3
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Tracy admits he's worried Garcia's long, rangy striking could trouble Lopes, but trusts Lopes's proven iron chin, power and more well-rounded grappling. He sees Lopes as the bigger threat in a firefight and able to take Garcia down and bully him.
- Lopes's chin is battle-tested (Volk x2, Silva, Ige); Garcia's is unproven
- Power and grappling edge — could take Garcia down
- Worried Garcia's slick range striking could make Lopes look lost
“That's for sure. He He's in for a tough task. I'm going to lean Diego Lopez by a”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
AJ expects Lopes to survive Garcia's pressure behind the better chin, cleaner counters and grappling threat, then find a later-stage finish as Garcia walks into big shots.
“So, Diego Lopez over Steve Garcia later stage finish is going to be my pick.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Lopes ("Diego Lopez") is better and made a career of catching pressure fighters coming in, so he survives Garcia's early rush and finishes him with ground-and-pound in the first round.
“Steve Garcia getting this one done. I'm going with Diego Lopez by late or mid”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · Sub
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Picks Diego Lopez by submission.
“Give me Diego Lopez by submission.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
A tiny lean for Diego: once you factor in his grappling and five-round title-fight experience he's the more dangerous overall.
“I'm going to pick Diego because I think he's the more dangerous overall.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists drake burden picking Diego Lopes.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · Dec
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Garcia is a sloppy, very hittable fighter taking a massive step up, while Lopes has gone fifty minutes with Volkanovski and finished Jean Silva. The host thinks Lopes is a step ahead and too sharp, though Lopes tends to go to decision.
- Medium confidence — admits the odds (~63%) are closer than expected
- Garcia's danger is real — seven of his last eight by KO
- A very winnable stylistic matchup for Lopes, not a domination
“I'm going to go with Diego Lopes to beat Steve Garcia by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Lopes is probably going to beat Garcia despite Bisping loving Garcia. He expects Lopes — who did much of his camp at Oklahoma State — to shoot takedowns and use his jiu-jitsu rather than bang with Garcia, whose finishing power is most dangerous on the feet.
- Expects Lopes to wrestle (Oklahoma State camp) and win on the ground
- May rob fans of the striking battle, since Garcia's edge is on the feet
“Diego Lopes is probably going to beat Steve Garcia. I love Steve Garcia.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 24 15
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Lucrative James picks Diego Lopes by second-round KO/TKO.
“I will be predicting Diego Lopez to win this fight via knockout in round two.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
The final Pure Picks recap selects Diego Lopes.
“My pick's still Diego Lopez right now”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Artem MMA explicitly picks Diego Lopez by knockout.
“I did pick Diego Lopez to win this match up by knockout”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · Sub
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Picks Diego Lopes by submission.
“Official prediction for this fight, I’m going to go with Diego Lopes by submission.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.4% (22 hit, 17 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.4% 22 17
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Clenbat leans Diego Lopes as the pick.
“I'm going to lean Diego Lopes for my pick.”
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Picks Diego Lopes by knockout.
“I'm picking Lopes to win by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
- Method Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Picks Diego Lopes by round-two TKO.
“fight is going to be Diego Lopes by round two TKO to ground and pound or a”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
TankTopMMA takes Lopes to finish Garcia.
“I'm going to be taking Diego Lopes by a round one finish.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (4 hit, 2 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 8 8
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · Sub
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
CBS Sports' UFC Freedom 250 article says SportsLine expert Kyle Marley backs Diego Lopes by submission over Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Picks Diego Lopes; method is explicitly left as decision or third-round knockout, so no single method is recorded.
“distance or Lopez catches Steve late in the third round. My prediction, Diego Lopez by decision or third round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Diego Lopes · Sub
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Rparqs picks Lopes to win by submission.
“Give me Diego Lopez here. I'm going to say first round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Wade thinks fans are sleeping on Garcia, who he believes should be favoured — on a long streak with seven KOs in his last eight. He argues Lopes is easily hittable, and while Lopes owns one of the best chins he's seen, even that chin can eventually be broken, and Garcia is the man to do it.
- Discounts the #2-vs-#9 ranking gap as not indicative
- Lopes is 'addicted to good fights' and will trade — into Garcia's hands
- Admits possible American bias
“I'm putting it out there right now. I think Steve Garcia beats Diego Lopez.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia · Dec
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
He flips from expecting Garcia to get outclassed: after watching tape he thinks Garcia — a long, lanky southpaw with nasty boxing and reach — out-strikes Lopes. The length helps Garcia see takedowns coming and pile up body and straight shots while Lopes hunts one big shot.
- Reach and length let Garcia counter and read the takedowns
- Garcia's chin means he won't be KO'd
- Self-flags it as a crazy pick / upset
“Steve Garcia is going to pull this one off by decision.”
* He flags it himself as a 'crazy pick.'
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
138 MMA sides with Steve Garcia in the close opener.
“I think I'm going to take Steve Garcia.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia · KO/TKO
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Fight IQ with Von picks Garcia by knockout.
“My pick is Steve Garcia via KO.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia · Dec
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
MMA JOEY selects Steve Garcia by decision after comparing the striking and momentum in the matchup.
“I'm going Steve Garcia decision 2928.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jake letarski picking Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.9% 42 27
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Izzysdegenmind selects Steve Garcia for the opener.
“Give me Steve Garcia to win by knockout or TKO or decision.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (9 hit, 6 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 9 6
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
GypMMA sides with Garcia after tape study.
“I think Steve Garcia can actually beat Diego Lopes.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (10 hit, 7 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.8% 10 7
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jon litterine picking Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists cole shelton picking Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Levy likes Garcia as an underdog because he believes Garcia has better MMA boxing fundamentals, footwork and minute-winning tools, while Lopes relies more on opportunistic finishing moments.
- Garcia's boxing fundamentals and footwork are the edge
- Lopes has finish danger and a ground advantage
- Sees Garcia as a live underdog who can extend the streak
“department. So, for that reason, I'm going to pick Steve Garcia to come out”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists joe suntszu picking Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.1% (34 hit, 30 miss, across 64 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (4 hit, 12 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 64 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Uselyis explicitly picks Steve Garcia.
“The pick is going to be Steve Garcia”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists chris olson picking Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.1% (32 hit, 39 miss, across 71 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 71 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.1% 32 39
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
Picks Steve Garcia by second-round TKO, with decision retained as an alternative in the transcript.
“Diego against Steve Casia. Let's go with the American Steve Casia by second round TKO. Maybe a decision.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 42.3% (11 hit, 15 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.0% (6 hit, 2 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 42.3% 11 15
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Round Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia · Dec
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
HorseBeef MMA flips to Garcia by decision.
“I'm going to say Steve Garcia via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Garcia
Fight result: Diego Lopes · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Steve Garcia.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Jaren Kawada Hit; The W.A.D.E. Concept Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Travis Herrick MMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; We Want Picks Hit; 138 MMA Miss; Drake Burden Hit; Fight IQ with Von Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; Jake Letarski Miss; James Blissett Hit; Izzysdegenmind Miss; GypMMA Miss; Pure Picks Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Jon Litterine Miss; BetSam Hit; Clenbat Hit; Kasper MMA Hit; Cole Shelton Miss; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Miss; Joe SunTszu Miss; TankTopMMA Hit; Uselyis Miss; Chris Olson Miss; Lightning MMA Miss; Kyle Marley Hit; Moneyball MMA Hit; Rparqs Hit; HorseBeef MMA Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.
23 of 40 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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