UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje defeats Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO
Round 4 · 5:00
Topuria vs Gaethje — Lightweight Title · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Gaethje landed the bigger shots in a strong opening round.
Topuria rallied in the second, hurting Gaethje to the body and pursuing a series of submissions on the canvas.
Gaethje then took control with heavy shots; after a doctor checked Topuria before the fourth, Topuria's corner stopped the fight following the round.
- Official UFC resultsUFC · UFC Freedom 250 results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Topuria
Finishing range almost nobody in the division has: seven KOs and eight submissions across 17-0. The boxing that dropped Volkanovski and Holloway carries real power, and a 94% takedown defense plus 48% striking accuracy mean he rarely gives a round away. Younger, fresher, and unbeaten — he sets the terms.
Case for Gaethje
Twenty knockouts and the heaviest low kicks at 155 lb. At 6.48 significant strikes a minute he is the highest-output striker on the whole card. If he can chop the lead leg and force a firefight, his pace and one-shot power are equalisers against anyone. Championship-round experience and a proven engine that doesn't fade late.
What We Were Watching For
- Can Gaethje's calf kicks slow Topuria's pressure before the boxing finds a home?
- Whose chin blinks first — both carry fight-ending power, and Gaethje was knocked out late by Holloway.
- Does Topuria lean on the grappling, or is this a pure striking match in the pocket?
- Five hard rounds at 37 versus an unbeaten 29-year-old — does mileage tell down the stretch?
- Gaethje absorbs 7.05 significant strikes a minute to Topuria's 3.83 — does that volume overwhelm, or does the defensive gap decide it against the cleanest puncher he's faced?
Records & career stats
- 4.82 6.29
- 62% 51%
- 3.97 6.83
- 95% 73%
- 88% 78%
- 17-0-0
- Record
- 27-5-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- Georgia / Spain
- Nationality
- USA
- 29
- Age
- 37
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 10:26
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:38
- Team Topuria
- Team
- Genesis Training Center
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Justin Gaethje
Gaethje frames the upset around surviving Topuria’s early body work, leaning on durability and pace, and taking over once the fight reached the later rounds.Gaethje frames the upset around surviving Topuria’s early body work, leaning on durability and pace, and taking over once the fight reached the later rounds.
- Said Topuria’s fresh skill set and body shots were dangerous early.
- Pointed to durability, tenacity and championship-round output as the reason the fight turned.
- Treated the win as a career-defining lightweight title moment rather than making an immediate retirement call.
Demetrious Johnson
Demetrious Johnson says he picked against Gaethje, then watched Gaethje survive the expected danger, punish Topuria’s linear boxing entries and produce one of the year’s best fights.Demetrious Johnson says he picked against Gaethje, then watched Gaethje survive the expected danger, punish Topuria’s linear boxing entries and produce one of the year’s best fights.
- Acknowledged his pre-fight Topuria pick was wrong.
- Contrasted Topuria’s knockout reputation with Gaethje’s resilience under fire.
- Focused on Gaethje’s jab and reads as Topuria walked into range.
Ariel Helwani
Helwani says he was wrong to be confident in Topuria, credits Gaethje for winning fairly, and frames the result as an unbelievable career turn after the Holloway knockout.Helwani says he was wrong to be confident in Topuria, credits Gaethje for winning fairly, and frames the result as an unbelievable career turn after the Holloway knockout.
- Said Gaethje won fair and square after Topuria’s corner called the fight off.
- Noted Topuria had never been compromised like that before.
- Saw the result as an absurd title-picture reset and a major late-career achievement for Gaethje.
Chael Sonnen
Sonnen argues Topuria still showed elite skill, but that layoff, fatigue and endurance concerns became decisive while Gaethje left as the unquestioned champion.Sonnen argues Topuria still showed elite skill, but that layoff, fatigue and endurance concerns became decisive while Gaethje left as the unquestioned champion.
- Focused on Topuria’s year away and preparation rhythm as a pre-fight concern.
- Said Topuria had strong moments and body-shot success before fatigue mattered.
- Concluded there is no argument against Gaethje being the world champion after the result.
Daniel Cormier
Cormier calls Gaethje the story of the night, crediting the setting, Gaethje’s resilience, and his third-round surge after Topuria spent energy chasing the second-round finish.Cormier calls Gaethje the story of the night, crediting the setting, Gaethje’s resilience, and his third-round surge after Topuria spent energy chasing the second-round finish.
- Saw the White House setting as part of what elevated Gaethje’s performance.
- Thought Topuria hurt Gaethje badly but spent too much energy trying to finish on the ground.
- Praised Gaethje’s third round and called the night one of the best he had seen.
Fight Society
Fight Society scores the fight for Gaethje before the stoppage, saying Topuria won only the second round, ate more damage than ever before, and had no clear path to an immediate rematch.Fight Society scores the fight for Gaethje before the stoppage, saying Topuria won only the second round, ate more damage than ever before, and had no clear path to an immediate rematch.
- Had Gaethje up 3-1 after four rounds before the stool stoppage.
- Highlighted Gaethje eating Topuria’s best shots and returning heavier damage.
- Suggested Gaethje’s win reshapes the lightweight title picture while Topuria goes back to the drawing board.
Full Mount MMA
Full Mount MMA rounds up the wider MMA reaction to Gaethje’s upset, emphasizing the corner stoppage, Topuria’s hospital trip, and peers praising Gaethje for taking Topuria somewhere unfamiliar.Full Mount MMA rounds up the wider MMA reaction to Gaethje’s upset, emphasizing the corner stoppage, Topuria’s hospital trip, and peers praising Gaethje for taking Topuria somewhere unfamiliar.
- Frames Gaethje as the new undisputed lightweight champion after a fourth-round corner stoppage.
- Highlights fighter reactions that praised Gaethje’s toughness and Topuria’s corner for protecting him.
- Treats the result as a major community-wide shock rather than a narrow technical note.
Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal says he expected Gaethje to get beaten up, then came away impressed by Gaethje’s fakes, movement, pace changes and ability to damage Topuria from the opening round.Masvidal says he expected Gaethje to get beaten up, then came away impressed by Gaethje’s fakes, movement, pace changes and ability to damage Topuria from the opening round.
- Ranked the fight among the greatest he has watched because of the skill level.
- Credited Gaethje’s fakes, length, pace changes and clinch work.
- Thought Topuria walked forward too directly early and paid for it with jab and eye damage.
Nightcap
Nightcap reacts to Gaethje’s upset as a patriotic, legacy-making win, repeatedly crediting him for surviving Topuria’s danger and leaving with the undisputed title.Nightcap reacts to Gaethje’s upset as a patriotic, legacy-making win, repeatedly crediting him for surviving Topuria’s danger and leaving with the undisputed title.
- Called Gaethje’s win an upset for the undisputed lightweight championship.
- Praised Gaethje for making the United States proud on the White House card.
- Returned to the result later in the episode while recapping the full finish-heavy card.
Submission Radio
Submission Radio treats Gaethje’s win as a feel-good shock, arguing that he finally earned the undisputed belt after years of brutal title paths and that Topuria’s corner stoppage changed his aura.Submission Radio treats Gaethje’s win as a feel-good shock, arguing that he finally earned the undisputed belt after years of brutal title paths and that Topuria’s corner stoppage changed his aura.
- Compared the upset to other major recent UFC shocks.
- Said Gaethje’s path through Khabib and then Topuria made the title win especially meaningful.
- Debated whether Topuria’s corner stoppage damages the aura around him going forward.
The MMA Guru
Their pick: Topuria KO/TKO · R2 · ✗ Miss The MMA Guru reverses his pre-fight Topuria confidence after the upset, scoring Gaethje ahead and arguing that Topuria’s power, pacing and confidence failed once Gaethje survived the second round.The MMA Guru reverses his pre-fight Topuria confidence after the upset, scoring Gaethje ahead and arguing that Topuria’s power, pacing and confidence failed once Gaethje survived the second round.
- Had Gaethje up three rounds to one before the stoppage.
- Highlighted Gaethje’s jab, damage and pace after surviving round two.
- Saw Topuria’s failed finish and visible damage as the fight’s psychological swing.
The W.A.D.E. Concept
Their pick: Topuria KO/TKO · ✗ Miss The W.A.D.E. Concept says almost everyone expected Topuria, then breaks down how Gaethje’s willingness to throw with him, jab damage and survival of round two flipped the fight.The W.A.D.E. Concept says almost everyone expected Topuria, then breaks down how Gaethje’s willingness to throw with him, jab damage and survival of round two flipped the fight.
- Admitted the consensus expectation was that Topuria would win.
- Identified Gaethje’s leg kicks, willingness to trade and early jab damage as crucial.
- Saw Topuria’s failed second-round finish as the point where Gaethje remained present and Topuria began fading.
TheMacLife
TheMacLife’s on-site reaction says Topuria may have overpressed for a statement finish, while Gaethje fought well off the back foot, survived the body-shot danger, and took over as damage accumulated.TheMacLife’s on-site reaction says Topuria may have overpressed for a statement finish, while Gaethje fought well off the back foot, survived the body-shot danger, and took over as damage accumulated.
- Noted Topuria fought aggressively and may have chased the White House moment too hard.
- Praised Gaethje for recovering from body shots and surviving full-mount danger.
- Saw the visible damage and corner stoppage as the natural endpoint after round four.
We Want Picks
Their pick: Topuria KO/TKO · R1 · ✗ Miss We Want Picks calls Gaethje-Topuria an all-time fight, arguing that Topuria had the cleaner early weapons but could not break Gaethje once cardio and adversity mattered.We Want Picks calls Gaethje-Topuria an all-time fight, arguing that Topuria had the cleaner early weapons but could not break Gaethje once cardio and adversity mattered.
- Saw round one as close and round two as Topuria’s clearest success.
- Thought Topuria erred by grappling after hurting Gaethje to the body.
- Framed the result as a battle of wills that favored Gaethje once the pace equalized.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's tendency to get hit, while the source leaves the finish between rounds two and three.
“Either round two or round three, Ilia Topuria TKOs Justin Gaethje.”
Track record: winner called in 19 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 82.6% (19 hit, 4 miss, across 23 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 23 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 82.6% 19 4
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Sports Betting Dime's Jaren Kawada predicts Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 72.7% (8 hit, 3 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Wade sees Topuria as better everywhere: boxing, striking variety, a far superior grappling and submission game, and a near-indestructible chin. The decisive read is that Gaethje gets hit more than he hits, and the men who finished Gaethje, Topuria also finished.
- Won't go the distance: KO late first round / early second
- Gaethje's only path: throw exactly when Topuria throws, vary off the low kick
- The personal beef has only made Topuria more locked in
“This fight will not go the distance. Ilia will knock him out early.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
He expects Gaethje to fight patient and movement-heavy like the second Poirier fight (calf kicks, lateral movement, clinch ties to extend it), but believes Topuria is too hard to hit cleanly. Topuria may look bad early reading Gaethje, then in round two make a read and land something brutal.
- Expects Gaethje patient and movement-heavy, trying to extend via the clinch
- Topuria's calf kicks a big factor against a boxing-first Gaethje
- May give Gaethje the first round before the finish
“He will find something brutal and KO Justin Gaethje in the second round, badly.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Topuria's cage-cutting and one-punch power are too much. He works into the pocket, rips the body, and lands the overhand on top for a first-round finish.
“So, I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria knocking Justin Gaethje out in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Ilia Topuria as its pick over Justin Gaethje.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Herrick treats the main event as massively lopsided for Topuria. His view is that Topuria is better everywhere, still in his prime, and too technically sharp for the version of Gaethje that has been repeatedly hittable and knocked out in recent years.
- Calls it Topuria by anything he wants
- Sees Topuria as the better striker, grappler and wrestler
- Frames Gaethje as too hittable for five rounds against Topuria
“It's Topuria by anything that he wants here.”
Track record: winner called in 7 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (7 hit, 3 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 7 3
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.
- 'Gaethje has no KO power': went 25 minutes with Pimblett
- Topuria has a grappling threat he won't need
- Says it 'won't even be close'
“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
AJ expects Topuria's sharper close-range boxing, head movement and counters to make Gaethje look too hittable, ending in a violent knockout inside the first 10 minutes.
“I think Taporia is gonna knock him out.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria, while retaining winner-only fields because the surrounding finish discussion does not establish a single method or round.
“So, I think of course I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.”
Track record: winner called in 43 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.2% (43 hit, 22 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.2% 43 22
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Doesn't buy that Gaethje still has the one-shot power to put Topuria away. Sees Topuria hurt him, start the attack, and finish inside two.
“I think in the second round when Gaethje starts to feel like, okay, now's my time. That's when he's out cold. Ilia Topuria catches him.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“Give me Ilia Topuria by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Topuria is too fast and hits too hard, and beats Gaethje almost anywhere; only a weather-the-storm grind gives Gaethje a chance. He expects a first-round KO.
“Ilia Topuria probably does knock out Justin Gaethje.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
138 MMA picks Topuria despite rooting for Gaethje.
“I do think Topuria wins.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists drake burden picking Ilia Topuria.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Fight IQ with Von picks Topuria by knockout.
“My pick is Ilia Topuria via KO.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
MMA JOEY explicitly selects Ilia Topuria in the main-event breakdown.
“I'm going to go Ilia Topuria with this one.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor.
- Topuria has the edge everywhere, including grappling if it goes long
- Gaethje's only edge is heavy low kicks vs Topuria's front-leg-heavy stance
- Slight caveat: first fight since Topuria's divorce, could fight emotionally
“I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria by KO in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Michael Bisping picks Ilia Topuria to win the UFC Freedom 250 main event.
“I've got Ilia Topuria.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 24 15
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jake letarski picking Ilia Topuria.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.9% 42 27
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria by first-round KO/TKO.
“My pick is Ilya Topuria. My pick is Ilya Topuria via knockout and I'll say comes in round one.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Izzysdegenmind picks Topuria by knockout or TKO.
“Give me Ilia Topuria to win by knockout or TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (9 hit, 6 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 9 6
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Breaking down his own loss to Topuria, he expects Gaethje to shell up and try to drag the champion into deep water, but reads Topuria as too sharp and too defensively safe, and sees him finish the moment Gaethje opens up, likely inside three rounds.
“I think it's going to be a KO for for Ilia.”
Competitive stake: He's picking Topuria — the fighter who beat him. Weigh the call with that history in mind.
Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
GypMMA picks Topuria by a second- or third-round knockout.
“Ilia Topuria round two round three KO.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (10 hit, 7 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.8% 10 7
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
The final Pure Picks recap selects Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout.
“My pick's Ilia Topuria by knockout. I think round one”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Artem MMA predicts Ilia Topuria by knockout and leaves the exact round uncertain.
“I think Topuria is going to knock him out in the second round, maybe the third round, maybe the first round”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jon litterine picking Ilia Topuria.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“Official prediction, I’m going to go Ilia Topuria by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.4% (22 hit, 17 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.4% 22 17
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Clenbat calls Topuria the proper pick by knockout.
“The proper pick is Ilia Topuria by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“I'm picking Topuria to win by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
- Method Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists cole shelton picking Ilia Topuria.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by round-one KO.
“So, I'm taking Ilia Topuria by round one KO.”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Levy favors Topuria as the much cleaner boxer and thinks Gaethje's tendency to get hurt makes him ripe for Topuria's combinations. He expects Topuria to knock Gaethje out and retain the lightweight belt.
“I'm gonna pick Ilia Tapora to come out here on the White House lawn, knock out the always exciting Justin Gachi”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists joe suntszu picking Ilia Topuria.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.1% (34 hit, 30 miss, across 64 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (4 hit, 12 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 64 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to counter Gaethje's aggressive pressure for an early first-round knockout.
“So, I see Topuria getting an early first round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to exploit Gaethje's hittable pressure with speed and power for a first-round finish.
“Ilia chins Gagei in the first.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
TankTopMMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout.
“I'm going to pick Ilia by round one KO.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (4 hit, 2 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 8 8
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Topuria to get a finish in round one, while leaving the method unspecified because the source discusses both knockout and submission routes.
“I think Topuria gets a finish here in round one nonetheless.”
Track record: winner called in 7 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (7 hit, 7 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 7 7
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Uselyis explicitly picks Ilia Topuria by KO without selecting a single round.
“The pick is going to be Ilia Topuria by KO”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists chris olson picking Ilia Topuria.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.1% (32 hit, 39 miss, across 71 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 71 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.1% 32 39
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria; the transcript contains contradictory round wording, so no method or round is inferred.
“the main event, Ilia Topuri against Justin Gi. Third round first round knockout for Ilia Tupurya.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 42.3% (11 hit, 15 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.0% (6 hit, 2 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 42.3% 11 15
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Round Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout.
“on the entire card. My prediction is Ilia Topuria by knockout, and I love the under two and a half rounds prop as well, because I don't see this going the”
Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Rparqs picks Topuria to finish in round two.
“I'm going to take Ilia Topuria. I'm going to take him out round two knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
HorseBeef MMA picks Topuria by first-round knockout.
“Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
FunkyBunch MMA explicitly predicts Ilia Topuria to knock out Justin Gaethje.
“I think that Ilia Topuria is definitely going to knock out Justin Gaethje here”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 33.3% (5 hit, 10 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 5 10
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by third-round knockout.
“With all that being said, like I said, Ilia Topuria round three KO is my prediction.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 3 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Dan Tom sees Topuria as the sharper, more disciplined strategist and thinks Gaethje's decline from the Pimblett fight matters. His closing call is Topuria, while separately floating submission as a possible way the upset-resistant matchup could still look different from the knockout consensus.
“I'm picking Tapora.”
* Roundtable source with multiple analysts; this row uses Dan Tom's own closing pick segment. The transcript renders some names phonetically (Tapora/Gatei), but the bout context and introduced speaker identify the mapping.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Thomas says it's hard for him to see Gaethje winning on Sunday and still expects Topuria to get the better of him the majority of the time. His read is that Topuria's cleaner skill set carries over even in a dangerous, chaos-friendly matchup.
“I still have to say that the majority of the times if they were to fight, if they were to train that Ilia would get the better of him”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Calls Gaethje a legend but a step slow now. Sees a new generation taking over and backs Topuria as the man for the lightweight era.
“now I think it's the Topuria time for lightweight.”
* A short interview soundbite on a third-party clip channel, not a dedicated breakdown — he names a winner but commits to no method or round.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Sanko agrees that Gaethje will have moments, but expects Topuria to rise to the occasion and take over with speed. Her framing is that the fight gets competitive in patches before Topuria's pace and precision separate him.
“I think Ilia rises to the occasion even more and gets the better of him.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout; the transcript gives a first-or-second-round range, so no single round is inferred.
“Tapora will knock out Justin Gai probably in the first or second round.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 2 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Justin Gaethje
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Justin Gaethje.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Current pick evidence
No pick has been recorded.
Fight result: Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO
Won't call it — argues you're either overrating Topuria or underrating Gaethje, and admits he doesn't know which.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Analyst picks: UFC GamblingAddicts Miss; Jaren Kawada Miss; The W.A.D.E. Concept Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; FightIQ Miss; Travis Herrick MMA Miss; Lucas Tracy Miss; AJ Devito Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; MMA Husky Hustler Miss; We Want Picks Miss; 138 MMA Miss; Drake Burden Miss; Fight IQ with Von Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Miss; Michael Bisping Miss; Jake Letarski Miss; James Blissett Miss; Izzysdegenmind Miss; Alexander Volkanovski Miss; GypMMA Miss; Pure Picks Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; BetSam Miss; Clenbat Miss; Kasper MMA Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; Aniki MMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Joe SunTszu Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; TankTopMMA Miss; Hayjive Picks Miss; Uselyis Miss; Chris Olson Miss; Lightning MMA Miss; Moneyball MMA Miss; Rparqs Miss; HorseBeef MMA Miss; FunkyBunch MMA Miss; Blind Bear MMA Miss; Dan Tom Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit; Din Thomas Miss; Islam Makhachev Miss; Laura Sanko Miss; Mark Berry TMA Miss; Chael Sonnen no pick.
Only 1 of 52 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
A previously logged prediction was retracted after a source-verification correction.
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