The W.A.D.E. Concept

Wade sees Topuria as better everywhere: boxing, striking variety, a far superior grappling and submission game, and a near-indestructible chin. The decisive read is that Gaethje gets hit more than he hits, and the men who finished Gaethje, Topuria also finished.

• Won't go the distance: KO late first round / early second
• Gaethje's only path: throw exactly when Topuria throws, vary off the low kick
• The personal beef has only made Topuria more locked in

“This fight will not go the distance. Ilia will knock him out early.”

Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.

▶ Hear it — 29:39 View this fight →

Wade's flagged upset: he had Pereira the whole buildup but makes a late switch to Gane, reasoning that Gane is the better athlete and a natural heavyweight while Pereira carries unnatural ~250 lb that may sap the speed and timing his counter-punching needs. No one has ever knocked Gane out.

• Gane grinds a methodical, tactical decision over five rounds
• Pereira must land real power early to earn Gane's respect
• If Pereira can't land the big one, Gane finds a way

“Yeah, I think I'm gonna go Gane decision. I am. I think I am.”

Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.05 — (50% − 47.5%) ÷ 50%.

* A late switch — he'd backed Pereira the entire buildup before flipping to Gane in this video.

▶ Hear it — 24:16 View this fight →

Wade leans on Zahabi getting hit nearly as often as he lands — a bad idea against O'Malley, who thrives once he finds his flow on a striking-heavy card. He cites coach Tim Welch calling it their best, healthiest camp, and frames it as O'Malley needing a statement.

• Zahabi's tiny margin between strikes landed and absorbed is the danger
• Coach Tim Welch: best camp they've had, fully healthy
• O'Malley needs a big-stage statement

Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.

▶ Hear it — 16:18 View this fight →

Wade expects Hokit to lean on his elite wrestling rather than trade with Lewis's power — the only way he sees Lewis winning. The grappling wears down the older, slower Lewis, who tends to check out when tired, while Hokit mixes in ground-and-pound for a clean-sweep decision.

• Alternative floated: a late stoppage or submission
• Lewis himself expects Hokit to wrestle and tire him
• Standing with Lewis's power would be a terrible idea for Hokit

“I think Josh Hokit's going to win.”

Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.

▶ Hear it — 13:08 View this fight →

Wade rates Ruffy as possibly one of the most talented strikers in the world, with size and reach edges, and is confident Chandler — who can't resist turning fights into brawls to please the crowd — invites exactly the firefight he shouldn't and gets brutally knocked out.

• His pick for Fight of the Night
• Hedge: if Chandler grapples early to tire Ruffy, it could differ
• Chandler throws caution to the wind to entertain

“First round knockout for Mauricio Ruffy.”

Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.

▶ Hear it — 10:17 View this fight →

Wade calls it close but takes Nickal to a smart, safe decision: implement his wrestling and top game without gassing or swinging wild, and crucially without getting caught in one of Daukaus's many submissions.

• A three-round fight means fewer answers about Nickal's gas tank
• Daukaus is a dangerous submission artist with better boxing than people think
• Nickal's 'reintroduce myself' fight at middleweight

“I'm going to go Bo Nickal, decision.”

Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.

▶ Hear it — 7:35 View this fight →

Wade thinks fans are sleeping on Garcia, who he believes should be favoured — on a long streak with seven KOs in his last eight. He argues Lopes is easily hittable, and while Lopes owns one of the best chins he's seen, even that chin can eventually be broken, and Garcia is the man to do it.

• Discounts the #2-vs-#9 ranking gap as not indicative
• Lopes is 'addicted to good fights' and will trade — into Garcia's hands
• Admits possible American bias

“I think Steve Garcia beats Diego Lopes.”

Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Underdog credit earned: 0.00 — credit is earned only on a correct call.

▶ Hear it — 5:08 View this fight →