UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Ciryl Gane defeats Alex Pereira by KO/TKO
Pereira vs Gane — Interim Heavyweight Title · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Gane's speed and varied attacks kept Pereira off rhythm in the opening round, where Pereira landed only a smattering of low kicks.
Gane scored with the cleaner shots while Pereira could not get his offence going.
At the start of round two, Gane hurt Pereira with a jab and continued attacking until he secured the stoppage.
- Official UFC resultsUFC · UFC Freedom 250 results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Pereira
Pure, fight-ending power that has finished a who's-who of light heavyweights — 11 of his 13 wins are knockouts, built on a left hook and chopping calf kicks few survive. He stopped Jiří Procházka twice and iced Jamahal Hill in a round, and his takedown defense has quietly become a strength. He doesn't need to win the exchange count; he needs one clean shot, and almost nobody in the sport lands cleaner.
Case for Gane
The most refined movement striker in the division, and for once he's the bigger, true-heavyweight man. Gane lands 5.29 significant strikes a minute while absorbing just 2.33, circling behind a long jab and low kicks to make opponents miss and pay. If he keeps the fight long and at range — and Pereira, unlike a wrestler, won't try to drag him down — his volume and footwork can bank rounds and stretch Pereira into deep water.
What We Were Watching For
- Pereira is moving up from 205 lb to true heavyweight — does the extra mass blunt his speed, or just add to his power?
- Gane has never faced one-shot power like this; can his 61% striking defense hold up over five championship rounds?
- Both of Gane's losses came when he was pressured and grappled — but Pereira is a striker who won't wrestle. Does that quietly play into Gane's hands?
- Pereira's cardio over five hard rounds at a new, heavier weight is the real unknown.
- Neither man is easy to finish, yet both can finish anyone — whoever lands the cleaner counter first likely ends it.
Records & career stats
- 13-3-0
- Record
- 13-2-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-1 (1 NC) last 5
- Brazil
- Nationality
- France
- 38
- Age
- 36
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 85%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 11
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 10:42
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 13:00
- Light Heavyweight (moving up)
- Weight classWeight
- Heavyweight
- Teixeira MMA & Fitness-Bethel, CT
- Team
- MMA Factory - Paris, France
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Ciryl Gane
Gane says the Pereira fight followed the plan: deny Pereira comfortable pressure, make him work, and then ask for the Aspinall rematch as soon as possible.Gane says the Pereira fight followed the plan: deny Pereira comfortable pressure, make him work, and then ask for the Aspinall rematch as soon as possible.
- Credited his team’s preparation and pressure plan.
- Said letting Pereira settle in the center would have created a bad night.
- Named Paris as an ideal location for the Aspinall rematch while leaving timing to the UFC.
Demetrious Johnson
Demetrious Johnson says Gane’s movement and jabs forced Pereira to turn, kept him from landing the heavyweight equalizer, and set up the Aspinall unification question.Demetrious Johnson says Gane’s movement and jabs forced Pereira to turn, kept him from landing the heavyweight equalizer, and set up the Aspinall unification question.
- Highlighted Gane’s footwork and repeated angle changes.
- Said Pereira was reduced to hunting the big punch without enough clean entries.
- Raised the Aspinall unification as the obvious next heavyweight issue.
We Want Picks
Their pick: Gane to win · ✓ Hit We Want Picks says Gane’s win hurts the Aspinall narrative, gives the UFC a marketable interim champion, and leaves Pereira better served staying at heavyweight.We Want Picks says Gane’s win hurts the Aspinall narrative, gives the UFC a marketable interim champion, and leaves Pereira better served staying at heavyweight.
- Said Pereira’s one-punch path was not enough against Gane’s speed and footwork.
- Viewed Gane’s win as strengthening his claim to the Aspinall rematch.
- Suggested Pereira should remain at heavyweight after adding the weight.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
He calls it the trickiest fight on the card and admits Gane has the size, reach and skill to win, but says Gane has the lowest fight IQ he's seen and will sabotage himself. He expects Pereira more comfortable in the pocket and a close decision, maybe via a Gane mistake.
- Explicitly doesn't see Gane KO'd or badly outstruck — expects it close
- Picks Pereira on fight IQ, not a physical edge
- Predicts a clutch grappling moment decides it
“I'm going to go with Alex Pereira by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Pereira's leg kicks limit Gane's footwork and force a mistake, then Pereira counters with the left hook and finishes with ground-and-pound to become the first three-division champ.
“going to go with Alex Pereira knocking Ciryl Gane out in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Herrick calls the matchup close but leans Pereira, citing Pereira's power and leg kicks as the clearest route to slowing Gane's movement.
“I'm still going to lean Pereira.”
Track record: winner called in 7 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (7 hit, 3 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 7 3
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Tracy calls it genuinely close but picks Pereira: Gane lacks finishing power and plays the points game at range, while Pereira can match him there and is faster than people remember. He sees leg kicks accumulating, Gane slowing, and Pereira landing the left hook to finish.
- Gane has no real finishing threat — needs huge volume
- Pereira's leg kicks and underrated speed are the difference
- Could be a late TKO or even a decision if Gane shows up great
“I'm going to go with a third-round KO for Alex Pereira.”
* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
AJ backs Pereira's power and cage pressure to catch Gane after the early movement slows, calling for Pereira to trap him and win by knockout.
“Alex Pereira. I'm going with Alex Pereira to beat Sirill Gan.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Gane ("Gan") stings him early and may win a round, but Pereira's superior striking technique and accumulating low kicks/body shots wear Gane down until he crumbles to the cage pressure.
“So, I'm going to go with Alex Pereira round three TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Picks Alex Pereira by knockout.
“Give me Alex Pereira by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
138 MMA sides with Alex Pereira in the close co-main.
“I'm taking Alex Pereira.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Pereira has built a career knocking out elite technical strikers, while Gane's best striking win is Volkov and he carries no real grappling or knockout threat. Gane is smooth and hard to hit, but Pereira has the power and resume and the host trusts him to find a way.
- Low-confidence pick — unknown how Pereira looks at heavyweight
- Gane is the first opponent not smaller than Pereira
- Wants an instant DQ if Gane eye-pokes
“I'm going to go Alex to finish Ciryl Gane in the very first round.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Artem MMA explicitly picks Alex Pereira by knockout.
“I still really like Alex Pereira in this match up ... win by knockout, too”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Picks Alex Pereira by knockout.
“Picking Alex Pereira to win this fight by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.4% (22 hit, 17 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.4% 22 17
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Picks Alex Pereira by round-three TKO.
“So yes, in this fight, give me Alex Pereira by round three TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
TankTopMMA picks Alex Pereira by second-round knockout.
“I'm going to pick Alex Pereira by round two KO.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (4 hit, 2 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 8 8
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Uselyis explicitly selects Alex Pereira and gives a KO prop as the method evidence.
“I'm going to go Alex Pereira ... Alex by KO”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Picks Alex Pereira by third-round knockout.
“What a fight, man. What a fight Alex against Sir Gan, you know. ... Alex Pereira by third round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 42.3% (11 hit, 15 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.0% (6 hit, 2 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 42.3% 11 15
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Round Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Picks Alex Pereira by knockout; round remains ambiguous between four and five.
“eventually corner Ciryl and land one of those fight-ending punches. My pick is Alex Pereira by knockout in round four or five.”
Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Rparqs picks Pereira to win by knockout.
“I'm going to take Pereira. I'm going to take him by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
HorseBeef MMA picks Pereira by a second-round TKO finish.
“I am picking Pereira and I'm going to pick him by a TKO finish in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Thomas leans Pereira because he trusts his reliability more than Gane's consistency. He treats Gane's talent as real, but says the fight swings on whether Gane shows up with the right mentality, which makes Pereira the safer side of the matchup.
“I am I am. I am I'm favoring Pereira.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alex Pereira
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Sanko also sides with Pereira, calling him the more reliable winner. Her view is that Gane may look good early, but Pereira's steadier form and ability to take over later make him the likelier winner.
“I am too, actually.”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Sports Betting Dime's Jaren Kawada predicts Ciryl Gane by decision.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 72.7% (8 hit, 3 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Wade's flagged upset: he had Pereira the whole buildup but makes a late switch to Gane, reasoning that Gane is the better athlete and a natural heavyweight while Pereira carries unnatural ~250 lb that may sap the speed and timing his counter-punching needs. No one has ever knocked Gane out.
- Gane grinds a methodical, tactical decision over five rounds
- Pereira must land real power early to earn Gane's respect
- If Pereira can't land the big one, Gane finds a way
“Yeah, I think I'm gonna go Gane decision. I am. I think I am.”
* A late switch — he'd backed Pereira the entire buildup before flipping to Gane in this video.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Ciryl Gane as its pick over Alex Pereira.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
DFS By The Numbers picks Ciryl Gane by decision.
“I'm going Ciryl Gane here. I'm going to take Ciryl Gane to actually win this fight by decisions.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Despite being a vocal Pereira fan, he thinks Gane is too fast, too clean and too big for Pereira to walk down and knock out at heavyweight.
“I'm about to pick Ciryl Gane.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists drake burden picking Ciryl Gane.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Fight IQ with Von picks Ciryl Gane by decision.
“My pick is Ciryl Gane via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
MMA JOEY picks Ciryl Gane to win by points after the matchup breakdown.
“I'm going to pick at Ciryl Gane probably winning this fight by points.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Bisping favoured Gane on points the moment the fight was made — a Pereira win would be an upset. Gane's speed, lateral movement, angles and natural heavyweight size are a problematic stylistic matchup for a Pereira who walks straight forward, and the mass that lets Pereira hit hard also slows him down.
- Picked Gane on points the minute the fight was made
- Pereira has to cut the cage off perfectly to land — Gane isn't fazed by size or power
- Thinks the odds should be wider in Gane's favour
“The minute this fight was made, I favoured Ciryl on points. If Alex Pereira pulls it off, in my opinion, it's an upset.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 24 15
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jake letarski picking Ciryl Gane.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.9% 42 27
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Lucrative James picks Ciryl Gane by decision.
“My official prediction is going to be Ciryl Gane wins the fight via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Izzysdegenmind picks Ciryl Gane by decision.
“Give me Ciryl Gane to win by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (9 hit, 6 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 9 6
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
GypMMA picks Ciryl Gane by decision.
“Ciryl Gane will outpoint Pereira and I think he will take the decision.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (10 hit, 7 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.8% 10 7
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
The final Pure Picks recap selects Ciryl Gane by decision.
“Going with Ciryl Gane by decision”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists jon litterine picking Ciryl Gane.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Clenbat picks Ciryl Gane with very low confidence.
“My pick is going to be Cyril Gane with beyond low confidence.”
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane · Dec
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
Picks Ciryl Gane by decision.
“my pick is Gane to win by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
- Method Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists cole shelton picking Ciryl Gane.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists joe suntszu picking Ciryl Gane.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.1% (34 hit, 30 miss, across 64 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (4 hit, 12 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 64 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ciryl Gane
Fight result: Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO
RotoWire's UFC Freedom 250 expert-picks table lists chris olson picking Ciryl Gane.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.1% (32 hit, 39 miss, across 71 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 71 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.1% 32 39
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Analyst picks: Jaren Kawada Hit; The W.A.D.E. Concept Hit; Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; FightIQ Hit; Travis Herrick MMA Miss; Lucas Tracy Miss; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Miss; We Want Picks Hit; 138 MMA Miss; Drake Burden Hit; Fight IQ with Von Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Miss; Michael Bisping Hit; Jake Letarski Hit; James Blissett Hit; Izzysdegenmind Hit; GypMMA Hit; Pure Picks Hit; Artem MMA Miss; Jon Litterine Hit; BetSam Miss; Clenbat Hit; Kasper MMA Hit; Cole Shelton Hit; Aniki MMA Miss; Joe SunTszu Hit; TankTopMMA Miss; Uselyis Miss; Chris Olson Hit; Lightning MMA Miss; Moneyball MMA Miss; Rparqs Miss; HorseBeef MMA Miss; Din Thomas Miss; Laura Sanko Miss.
20 of 40 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
No current consensus line is saved on this page.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.