Pure Picks is an MMA betting service led by James Nguyen, Alex Guo, Gerard Francis and Kevin Wan, four friends from the University of California Santa Barbara. Its membership includes preliminary picks before weigh-ins, revised picks afterward, parlays and live bets.
Scorecard
Called 17 of 29 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss Field median Gap to the field
17 of 29 — 59% now, from 67% at their first scored card.
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Method
58% 7 of 12 correct winners that named a method
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Round
0 of 1 correct winner that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
38% 3 of 8 priced underdog calls
The opening point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Crypto.com UFC 331 4 hit · 6 miss
- UFC 329 9 hit · 4 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 4 hit · 2 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Ferreira · Sub | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Pure Picks transcript pick: Brunno Ferreira by submission. “I'm going to go Bruno here by submission.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · to win | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · to win | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · to win | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · to win | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · to win | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · to win | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 69.2% 9 4
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Durden · Dec | Costa · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Cody Durden by decision. “I’ll roll with Cody Deran to win by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Ryan Gandra by KO. “Ryan Gandra gets a a KO finish on Zach Ree.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Almeida · Dec | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks César Almeida by decision. “Caesar Almeida by decision for me.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Wang · Dec | Wang · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Wang Cong by decision. “I’m going to go with the striker here, Kong Wang, to win by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Luke Riley by decision. “I’m going to go with Luke Riley by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yañez · KO/TKO | Yañez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Final pick changed from decision to KO; the later explicit choice is retained. “I’ll change it. Adrien Giannis by KO on Cody Garbrandt.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Gable Steveson by knockout. “Gable Stevenson by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · Dec | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Final pick is Whittaker by decision after earlier consideration of a knockout. “So give me Robert Whitaker decision, maybe even a split decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. McKinney · KO/TKO · R1 | Green · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Terrance McKinney by first-round KO. “Give me Terence McKini by KO round one.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lone’er Kavanagh by KO; the source gives round two or three, so the round is left unset. “I'm gonna say Loner Kavanaaugh TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Mario Bautista by decision. “I'm going to go with Mario Batista by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Paddy Pimblett by submission despite explicitly noting low confidence. “Not too confident, but I’ll go Patty Pimpblelet by submission.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · Dec | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Max Holloway by decision. “Give me Max Holloway by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · to win | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
The final Pure Picks recap selects Diego Lopes. “My pick's still Diego Lopez right now” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Daukaus · Dec | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
The final Pure Picks recap selects Bo Nickal by decision. “I'm going to Bo Nickal decision” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · Dec | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
The final Pure Picks recap selects Sean O'Malley by decision. “I'm going with O'Malley by decision” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 47.5%. Gane · Dec | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
The final Pure Picks recap selects Ciryl Gane by decision. “Going with Ciryl Gane by decision” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R2 | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
The final Pure Picks recap selects Mauricio Ruffy by second-round knockout. “Rufi, I'm going with round two knockout” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
The final Pure Picks recap selects Ilia Topuria by first-round knockout. “My pick's Ilia Topuria by knockout. I think round one” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Pure Picks's logged calls.