Damian Pinas defeats César Almeida by KO/TKO
Pinas vs Almeida — Middleweight · UFC 329
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More from this fight.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Both fighters exchanged kicks and punches through the round.
Pinas landed a punch that dropped Almeida.
A follow-up punch sealed the KO at 4:44.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: DFS By The Numbers Hit; AJ Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; Half The Battle Hit; Mike Finch Miss; Lucas Tracy Miss; We Want Picks Miss.
All 10 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results10 scored · 7 hits · 3 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO · R1 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
| Takes Pinas to be the first fighter to knock Almeida out. He acknowledges Almeida has never been stopped by strikes, but believes Pinas' power and aggression can break that trend early. Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Calls it close, but favours Pinas because of his length, power and finishing upside. He thinks Pinas has more live knockout paths than Almeida and is the stronger side despite the hard matchup. “I have to favor the side of Pinas.” Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · Dec | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Leans to Pinas' explosiveness and athleticism, with enough power to hurt Almeida and win key exchanges. He still expects Almeida to be durable enough to survive the scary moments and force a competitive decision. “I'll say decision. I'll weirdly say decision here.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Backs Damian Pinas by round-two knockout while acknowledging Almeida as a skilled kickboxer who may start well. The read is that Pinas' length, explosiveness and straight right eventually find Almeida during a mostly striking fight. “I'm going to go with Demian Pynoos by round two knockout.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Respects Almeida's kickboxing experience but thinks Pinas is explosive enough, long enough and straight enough with his entries to beat Almeida to the target. He expects some competitive striking exchanges before Pinas' speed and accuracy produce a second-round knockout. “Knocking out Caesar Almeida in the second round.” Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · to win | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Backs Pinas because he sees the matchup playing into the younger knockout puncher's hands. He respects Almeida's Glory kickboxing background, but thinks Pinas' first-round UFC knockout form and upside make him the side. “I don't think Almeida gets the job done here.” Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · to win | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Backs Damian Pinas as the younger, more explosive prospect with the athleticism to outgrow Cesar Almeida quickly. He thinks Pinas can strike with Almeida and may even show wrestling wrinkles against an opponent with takedown-defense concerns. Track record: winner called in 40 of 60 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Almeida · Dec | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Takes the underdog Almeida in a split-pick fight. He acknowledges Pinas as a tall task, but settles on Almeida to survive the danger and win on the cards. “Caesar Almeida via a decision.” Track record: winner called in 30 of 49 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Almeida · Dec | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Respects Pinas' knockout hype but sides with Almeida's experience, power, body work, and proven takedown defense. He expects Almeida to survive the early danger and win a crafty striking decision. “I'm going to go with Caesar Almeida to get this one done.” Track record: winner called in 21 of 32 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Almeida · to win | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| They give Damian Pinas real first-round knockout value because of his pressure and power, but the shared pick is Cesar Almeida. The argument is that Almeida is the cleaner, more experienced striker if he survives the early heat and the fight extends.
“I'm going Caesar as a pick.” Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks. | |||||
7 of 10 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 9-1-0
- Record
- 7-2-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-1 last 3
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 6.33
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 5.89
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 39%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 03:00
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- Suriname
- Nationality
- Brazil
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Pinas
Pinas is the kind of undefeated middleweight prospect who can make a page feel bigger than his name value because the style translates instantly: pressure, knockdowns and a finish rate that has erased nearly everyone before the scorecards mattered. The core matchup question is whether Almeida gets the calm, measured kickboxing fight he wants, and Pinas's best argument is that he almost never lets opponents have that comfort. If he backs Almeida up early with the jab-cross and forces the veteran to trade before range is set, the younger fighter's chaos becomes the story.
Case for Almeida
Almeida is the recognizable side for good reason: he is a former elite kickboxer who has already shown, against Budka, Potieria and Alhassan, that his UFC-level power and timing are real even when the fight gets ugly first. Pinas may be 9-1 with eight knockouts, but none of that regional tape answers what happens when the other man is the cleaner counter striker and the more experienced problem-solver. If Almeida makes him reset, check his aggression and think between bursts, the prospect's usual pace can start working against him.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Pinas can pressure without running onto counters — he wants to compress the cage, but Almeida is built to punish straight-line entries.
- Almeida's first clean body or hook counter — if he is landing those early, the veteran kickboxing read is already taking hold.
- Any wrestling detour from either side — Almeida's losses came when opponents changed the geography, while Pinas still has not had to show much Plan B on the UFC stage.
- How the fight looks once the first-round surge passes — Pinas usually finishes early, while Almeida has already proven he can win or survive deeper UFC rounds.
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