UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Luke Riley defeats Kai Kamaka III by KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:03
Riley vs Kamaka III — Featherweight · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Kamaka opened with early calf kicks.
Riley dropped him with a right hand.
Follow-up knees and punches forced the stoppage at 3:03.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Riley
The Luke Riley side of this UFC 329 matchup is easy to grasp: the unbeaten prospect has already answered two useful early-career questions in the cage. He came through Bogdan Grad's wrestling-heavy first round before scoring the comeback knockout in his UFC debut, then showed against Michael Aswell Jr. that he can bank rounds over 15 minutes without needing a quick finish. That matters here because Riley does not need this fight to stay a pure Muay Thai showcase to keep winning; if he can stay upright often enough to make Kamaka trade at his pace, the younger featherweight's cleaner boxing and sharper counters can keep the rise moving.
Case for Kamaka III
Kamaka is the spoiler version of this page, and that is why the matchup matters more than a generic unbeaten-prospect spot. He has already lived through UFC, Bellator and PFL rounds, just returned to the roster with a hard split-decision win over Dakota Hope, and brings the exact kind of layered test Riley has barely had to solve yet: body work, wrestling looks and enough composure to stay useful late. If Kamaka can turn Riley's preferred striking fight into a clinch-and-mat grind or simply drag him into another tight round-three decision, the page stops being about hype and starts being about whether Riley is ready for veteran featherweights right now.
What We Were Watching For
- Kamaka's first serious wrestling sequence — Riley solved Grad's pressure after losing round one, but Kamaka is the cleaner veteran version of that problem.
- Riley's willingness to stay patient after landing clean — if he chases a finish too hard, Kamaka has the experience to turn that aggression into clinch time.
- Body work on both sides: Kamaka leans on it in long fights, while Riley's kicking game is one of the simplest ways to slow the veteran's entries.
- Round three if it is close — Kamaka has made a career out of these late reads, while Riley is still proving his undefeated record holds once the fast start fades.
Records & career stats
- 6.67 5.49
- 61% 55%
- 3.86 6.03
- 38% 55%
- 71% 22%
- 13-0-0
- Record
- 18-7-1
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- UK
- Nationality
- United States
- 26
- Age
- 31
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 07:51
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:05
- NEXT Generation MMA
- Team
- Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · Dec
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Calls it close and expects Kai Kamaka to have moments, but leans Luke Riley by 29-28 decision. He thinks Riley's light movement, speed, body work and left hook make Kamaka's calf-kick game harder to establish over three rounds.
“We're going to go with Luke Riley by 29-28 decision.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Gives Kamaka a chance to land early boxing, but sees Riley's offensive pressure and power as the deciding traits once exchanges open up. He expects Riley to keep throwing through Kamaka's offense and overpower him for a second-round knockout.
“I think Luke Riley at the end of the day is going to overpower him in these exchanges, knocking him out in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · Dec
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Luke Riley as its pick over Kai Kamaka.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Makes Riley the clear side, pointing to his speed and team context while openly treating Kamaka as the much less convincing form read. He says Riley can get it done quickly and however he wants, but does not lock a specific method.
“Um I'm going with Luke Riley”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · Dec
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Picks Luke Riley by decision.
“I predict Riley to win. I think Riley wins by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Respects Kamaka as a live, well-rounded opponent, but thinks Riley's boxing advantage is too sharp. He expects Riley to read the kicks, answer with hands and find a knockout once he gets comfortable.
“I'm going with KO. Luke Riley, first or second round over Kamaka.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · Dec
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Takes Riley because his shots should be the more damaging and eye-catching work. He respects Kamaka's toughness and expects him to survive all three rounds, but not to outscore Riley's power.
“I'm going Luke Riley. I'll go damage-based, power-based decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
They have concerns about Luke Riley if Kai Kamaka can force clinches and make rounds ugly, but both still pick Riley. The shared logic is that Riley is the cleaner and faster striker in what should mostly be a striking matchup.
“Luke Riley is the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction.
“I'm going to take Luke Riley to get it done.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Rates Luke Riley's boxing, Cage Warriors experience and finishing power well above the threat Kai Kamaka brings. He expects Riley to handle the grappling well enough and land a heavy first-round shot.
“I'm going to go with Luke Riley by KO in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · Dec
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Expects a mostly striking fight and sides with Riley's boxing, Thai boxing, footwork, rhythm and youth. He respects Kamaka's experience and UFC return, but thinks Riley has the cleaner tools to win rounds.
“Luke Riley gets the job done, but it will be via a decision.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 24 15
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Leftlane MMA picks Luke Riley in the Riley–Kamaka discussion.
“for now I'll just pick him against this level of comp.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 18 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 18 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 18 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.1% 11 7
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · Dec
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Picks Luke Riley by decision.
“I’m going to go with Luke Riley by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Transcript-verified winner pick from BetSam UFC 329 full-card prediction.
“Luke Riley to win this fight by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.4% (22 hit, 17 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.4% 22 17
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Vreeland expects a striking-heavy matchup to suit Riley and doubts Kamaka’s grappling will deter him.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (17 hit, 14 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Luke Riley · Dec
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Luke Riley by decision.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Kai Kamaka III
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
Aniki MMA picks the stated winner.
“Kai Kamaka by 2928. Unanimous decision.”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Kai Kamaka III
Fight result: Luke Riley · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Kai Kamaka III.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; 138 MMA Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; Leftlane MMA Hit; Pure Picks Hit; BetSam Hit; Daniel Vreeland Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Aniki MMA Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.
16 of 18 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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