Luke Riley defeats Kai Kamaka III by KO/TKO
Riley vs Kamaka — Featherweight · UFC 329
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More from this fight.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Kamaka opened with early calf kicks.
Riley dropped him with a right hand.
Follow-up knees and punches forced the stoppage at 3:03.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: DFS By The Numbers Hit; AJ Hit; Mike Finch Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperoMMA Hit.
All 10 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results10 scored · 10 hits · 0 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Takes Riley because his shots should be the more damaging and eye-catching work. He respects Kamaka's toughness and expects him to survive all three rounds, but not to outscore Riley's power. “I'm going Luke Riley. I'll go damage-based, power-based decision.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Trusts Riley's prospect momentum and sharper hands, while respecting Kamaka's seasoning across UFC, Bellator and PFL. He expects Riley to win a hard-fought decision. “I think Luke Riley wins a hard-fought decision against him.” Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · to win | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Likes Riley as the more consequential striker. He respects Kamaka's technical layers and cardio, but thinks Riley's power, damage and late-round push make him a bad matchup. “Give me Luke Riley.” Track record: winner called in 30 of 49 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · to win | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Makes Riley the clear side, pointing to his speed and team context while openly treating Kamaka as the much less convincing form read. He says Riley can get it done quickly and however he wants, but does not lock a specific method. “Luke Riley's getting this one done however he wants.” Track record: winner called in 21 of 32 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Respects Kamaka as a live, well-rounded opponent, but thinks Riley's boxing advantage is too sharp. He expects Riley to read the kicks, answer with hands and find a knockout once he gets comfortable. “I'm going with KO. Luke Riley, first or second round over Kamaka.” Track record: winner called in 66 of 99 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Calls it close and expects Kai Kamaka to have moments, but leans Luke Riley by 29-28 decision. He thinks Riley's light movement, speed, body work and left hook make Kamaka's calf-kick game harder to establish over three rounds. “We're going to go with Luke Riley by 29-28 decision.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO · R2 | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Gives Kamaka a chance to land early boxing, but sees Riley's offensive pressure and power as the deciding traits once exchanges open up. He expects Riley to keep throwing through Kamaka's offense and overpower him for a second-round knockout. Track record: winner called in 45 of 61 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Expects a mostly striking fight and sides with Riley's boxing, Thai boxing, footwork, rhythm and youth. He respects Kamaka's experience and UFC return, but thinks Riley has the cleaner tools to win rounds. “Luke Riley gets the job done, but it will be via a decision.” Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · to win | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| They have concerns about Luke Riley if Kai Kamaka can force clinches and make rounds ugly, but both still pick Riley. The shared logic is that Riley is the cleaner and faster striker in what should mostly be a striking matchup. “Luke Riley is the pick.” Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks. | |||||
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO · R1 | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
| Rates Luke Riley's boxing, Cage Warriors experience and finishing power well above the threat Kai Kamaka brings. He expects Riley to handle the grappling well enough and land a heavy first-round shot. Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks. | |||||
10 of 10 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 13-0-0
- Record
- 18-7-1
- 3-0 last 3
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-1 last 3
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- UK
- Nationality
- USA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Riley
The Luke Riley side of this UFC 329 matchup is easy to grasp: the unbeaten prospect has already answered two useful early-career questions in the cage. He came through Bogdan Grad's wrestling-heavy first round before scoring the comeback knockout in his UFC debut, then showed against Michael Aswell Jr. that he can bank rounds over 15 minutes without needing a quick finish. That matters here because Riley does not need this fight to stay a pure Muay Thai showcase to keep winning; if he can stay upright often enough to make Kamaka trade at his pace, the younger featherweight's cleaner boxing and sharper counters can keep the rise moving.
Case for Kamaka
Kamaka is the spoiler version of this page, and that is why the matchup matters more than a generic unbeaten-prospect spot. He has already lived through UFC, Bellator and PFL rounds, just returned to the roster with a hard split-decision win over Dakota Hope, and brings the exact kind of layered test Riley has barely had to solve yet: body work, wrestling looks and enough composure to stay useful late. If Kamaka can turn Riley's preferred striking fight into a clinch-and-mat grind or simply drag him into another tight round-three decision, the page stops being about hype and starts being about whether Riley is ready for veteran featherweights right now.
What We Were Watching For
- Kamaka's first serious wrestling sequence — Riley solved Grad's pressure after losing round one, but Kamaka is the cleaner veteran version of that problem.
- Riley's willingness to stay patient after landing clean — if he chases a finish too hard, Kamaka has the experience to turn that aggression into clinch time.
- Body work on both sides: Kamaka leans on it in long fights, while Riley's kicking game is one of the simplest ways to slow the veteran's entries.
- Round three if it is close — Kamaka has made a career out of these late reads, while Riley is still proving his undefeated record holds once the fast start fades.
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