UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Gable Steveson defeats Elisha Ellison by KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:31
Steveson vs Ellison — Heavyweight · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Steveson mixed front kicks and power punches to open the fight.
He closed to the clinch and stacked knees and punches.
Ellison collapsed under the sequence at 2:31 of round one.
- Secondary fallback play-by-play reportSherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Steveson
This page is really about the Gable Steveson UFC debut question: how quickly can Olympic-level wrestling turn into a dependable heavyweight UFC weapon? Through three pro fights the answer has been 'very quickly' — first-round takedowns, top pressure and finishes every time, plus enough composure against Hugo Lezama to absorb a clean spinning wheel kick and still take over. Against Ellison, Steveson is not being asked to win a long technical kickboxing match; he is being asked to force his wrestling on a hittable heavyweight before the fight becomes a coin-flip pocket exchange.
Case for Ellison
Ellison is the reminder that Steveson is still only three fights into MMA, not a finished heavyweight yet. He has real first-round power, more cage rounds overall, and the one thing Steveson has not had to solve in public: an opponent who can make the wrestling entries costly with a single punch. If Ellison can stay upright, make Steveson strike on the way in and turn this into a frantic heavyweight exchange rather than a controlled clinch, the debut hype suddenly has to survive a live test instead of a clean showcase.
What We Were Watching For
- How fast Steveson shoots in his UFC debut — immediate wrestling says he wants certainty, extended striking says he wants to answer bigger questions early.
- Ellison's first clean counter opportunity when Steveson closes distance — that is the stress test Steveson has not yet had to pass.
- Whether Steveson can run Ellison to the fence and keep him there — if the clinch belongs to Steveson, the matchup starts looking one-sided fast.
- What happens after the first completed takedown — Steveson on top has meant a finish in all three pro wins, while Ellison's one submission loss and UFC stoppage both came once he lost control of the geography.
Records & career stats
- 3-0-0
- Record
- 5-2-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- USA
- Nationality
- USA
- 26
- Age
- 29
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 100%
- 01:22
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 02:13
- Jackson Wink MMA Academy - NM
- Team
- Combat Sports & Fitness
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Sees Steveson as a heavily protected but legitimate heavyweight prospect, citing his boxing, elite wrestling base, and the matchup placement as signals that the UFC expects him to win cleanly. Picks Steveson to knock Ellison out.
“Gable Steveson, great prospect at heavyweight. He's going to win this fight. He's going to knock this dude out.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Treats the matchup as a showcase for Steveson's elite wrestling and athleticism against an opponent he thinks is badly overmatched. He expects Steveson to maul Ellison quickly and finish in round one.
“I'm going with Gable Steveson annihilating Alicia Ellison in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Gable Steveson as its pick over Elisha Ellison.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
The surrounding segment explicitly identifies Gable Steveson versus Ellison; the source picks Steveson by first-round knockout.
“I’m going Gable Steveson round one... and get the knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Treats the fight as a Steveson showcase. He expects the Olympic wrestler to put Ellison on the mat quickly, lean on ground-and-pound, and finish in the first round.
“Gable Stevenson should deliver a first round TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Thinks Ellison is an undersized and inexperienced UFC heavyweight debut opponent for this spot. He expects Steveson's athleticism, wrestling threat and power to be enough for a quick TKO, while noting it would not prove top-level heavyweight readiness yet.
“By TKO in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Views Ellison as badly overmatched once Steveson wrestles. He points to Ellison's defensive gaps and cardio concerns, expecting Steveson's Olympic-level grappling and top pressure to produce a fast stoppage.
“Give me Gable Steveson to win by first round TKO. It's going to be brutal.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
They treat Steveson as the obvious side because of the wrestling base and physical tools, while rejecting the contrarian case against him as overthinking. Ellison is acknowledged as aggressive and hard-hitting, but not enough to offset Steveson's athletic and grappling advantages.
“Gable is going to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 329 full-card prediction.
“Either way, I think Gable wins this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Backs Gable Steveson's Olympic wrestling and Jon Jones camp work to be too much for Elisha Ellison. He sees the matchup as designed for Steveson to get takedowns, control the fight and find an early submission.
“I'm going to go with Gable Stevenson to submit him in the first round”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Makes Steveson a clear pick because of his Olympic wrestling base, heavyweight athleticism, speed, power and elite coaching setup. He sees Ellison's limited UFC sample as a bad setup against a prospect he believes could be fast-tracked.
“that is the potential that he has. Of course, he wins.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 24 15
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Picks Gable Steveson by knockout.
“Gable Stevenson by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Chris Schweppe's MMA Fight Picks UFC 329 preview picks Gable Steveson by first-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Aniki MMA picks the stated winner.
“Stevenson by late round one ground and pound TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.3% 16 14
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Gable Steveson
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
Makes Gable Steveson the straightforward pick in his UFC debut. He treats the wrestling pedigree and matchup dynamics as too wide a gap to back Elisha Ellison, while not committing to a specific finish method.
“that UFC debut is I ain't picking no grown man named Alicia to win a UFC fight. My pick is Gable Stevenson.”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elisha Ellison
Fight result: Gable Steveson · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Elisha Ellison.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; 138 MMA Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; Pure Picks Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
15 of 16 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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