Steveson def. Ellison
KO/TKO · knees and punches · Round 1 · 2:31
Steveson vs Ellison — Heavyweight · UFC 329
What happened
Steveson's power showed early. He mixed front kicks with heavy hands, then closed the distance and unloaded knees and punches in the clinch. Ellison collapsed under the sequence at 2:31 of the first round.
- Steveson mixed front kicks and power punches to open the fight.
- He closed to the clinch and stacked knees and punches.
- Ellison collapsed under the sequence at 2:31 of round one.
Play-by-play source: Sherdog · UFC 329 play-by-play
Watch
More from this fight.
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Signature moments
Signature moments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: Bedtime MMA perfect call; AJ perfect call; Mike Finch perfect call; The MMA Guru perfect call; DFS By The Numbers perfect call; TheWeasle perfect call; Michael Bisping called it; We Want Picks called it; HopperoMMA called it; Half The Battle called it.
10 of 10 nailed it · 6 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Sees Steveson as a heavily protected but legitimate heavyweight prospect, citing his boxing, elite wrestling base, and the matchup placement as signals that the UFC expects him to win cleanly. Picks Steveson to knock Ellison out.
“Gable Steveson, great prospect at heavyweight. He's going to win this fight. He's going to knock this dude out.”
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Treats the fight as a Steveson showcase. He expects the Olympic wrestler to put Ellison on the mat quickly, lean on ground-and-pound, and finish in the first round.
“Gable Stevenson should deliver a first round TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 19 of 31 Mike Finch: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Tried to find an Ellison upset angle, but could not get there. He trusts Steveson's wrestling base, camp, confidence and ground-and-pound to overwhelm Ellison early.
“Gable Stevenson gets him out of there in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 25 of 36 The MMA Guru: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Thinks Ellison is an undersized and inexperienced UFC heavyweight debut opponent for this spot. He expects Steveson's athleticism, wrestling threat and power to be enough for a quick TKO, while noting it would not prove top-level heavyweight readiness yet.
“By TKO in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 36 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Views Ellison as badly overmatched once Steveson wrestles. He points to Ellison's defensive gaps and cardio concerns, expecting Steveson's Olympic-level grappling and top pressure to produce a fast stoppage.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
TheWeasle Analyst called 25 of 37 TheWeasle: predicted Steveson · KO/TKO · R1. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Perfect call.
Treats the matchup as a showcase for Steveson's elite wrestling and athleticism against an opponent he thinks is badly overmatched. He expects Steveson to maul Ellison quickly and finish in round one.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 37 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.
Michael Bisping AnalystFighter called 11 of 19 Michael Bisping: predicted Steveson · to win. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Makes Steveson a clear pick because of his Olympic wrestling base, heavyweight athleticism, speed, power and elite coaching setup. He sees Ellison's limited UFC sample as a bad setup against a prospect he believes could be fast-tracked.
“Of course, he wins.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: predicted Steveson · to win. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
They treat Steveson as the obvious side because of the wrestling base and physical tools, while rejecting the contrarian case against him as overthinking. Ellison is acknowledged as aggressive and hard-hitting, but not enough to offset Steveson's athletic and grappling advantages.
“Gable is going to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: predicted Steveson · Sub · R1. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Backs Gable Steveson's Olympic wrestling and Jon Jones camp work to be too much for Elisha Ellison. He sees the matchup as designed for Steveson to get takedowns, control the fight and find an early submission.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 12 of 19 Half The Battle: predicted Steveson · to win. Actual Steveson · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Makes Gable Steveson the straightforward pick in his UFC debut. He treats the wrestling pedigree and matchup dynamics as too wide a gap to back Elisha Ellison, while not committing to a specific finish method.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 19 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Steveson (90%) Called it
Steveson def. Ellison · KO/TKO R1
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 3-0-0
- Record
- 5-2-0
- 3-0 last 3
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1-2 last 3
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
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- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- USA
- Nationality
- USA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Steveson
This page is really about the Gable Steveson UFC debut question: how quickly can Olympic-level wrestling turn into a dependable heavyweight UFC weapon? Through three pro fights the answer has been 'very quickly' — first-round takedowns, top pressure and finishes every time, plus enough composure against Hugo Lezama to absorb a clean spinning wheel kick and still take over. Against Ellison, Steveson is not being asked to win a long technical kickboxing match; he is being asked to force his wrestling on a hittable heavyweight before the fight becomes a coin-flip pocket exchange.
Case for Ellison
Ellison is the reminder that Steveson is still only three fights into MMA, not a finished heavyweight yet. He has real first-round power, more cage rounds overall, and the one thing Steveson has not had to solve in public: an opponent who can make the wrestling entries costly with a single punch. If Ellison can stay upright, make Steveson strike on the way in and turn this into a frantic heavyweight exchange rather than a controlled clinch, the debut hype suddenly has to survive a live test instead of a clean showcase.
What We Were Watching For
- How fast Steveson shoots in his UFC debut — immediate wrestling says he wants certainty, extended striking says he wants to answer bigger questions early.
- Ellison's first clean counter opportunity when Steveson closes distance — that is the stress test Steveson has not yet had to pass.
- Whether Steveson can run Ellison to the fence and keep him there — if the clinch belongs to Steveson, the matchup starts looking one-sided fast.
- What happens after the first completed takedown — Steveson on top has meant a finish in all three pro wins, while Ellison's one submission loss and UFC stoppage both came once he lost control of the geography.
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