UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez 1 Aug 2026 · Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia, RS

Michael Oliveira defeats Oban Elliott by KO/TKO

Win Michael Oliveira View profile 10-0-0

Loss The Welsh Gangster Oban Elliott View profile 12-5-0

KO/TKO · punches

Round 1 · 1:49

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks12 analysts✓ Correct 8%1 pick 92%11 picks

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Oliveira dropped Elliott with a stiff right hand early. Elliott then looked to wrestle his way back into the fight.

Oliveira stuffed the takedown entries. A clean one-two then put Elliott down for a second time.

Oliveira finished on the ground at 1:49 of round one.

Official UFC resultsUFC.com — UFC Belgrade prelim results

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Elliott

Elliott has faced far better opposition, and he is the only wrestler in the matchup — 1.48 takedowns per fifteen minutes against an opponent who has not recorded one in UFC-tracked competition. Oliveira built his 9-0 on the Brazilian regional circuit and Contender Series without meeting a ranked UFC name, and taking an undefeated striker into deep water is the clearest path to ending that run.

Case for Oliveira

Oliveira is 9-0 with an 89% finish rate and lands 8.28 significant strikes a minute — the highest figure recorded on this card, and more than double Elliott's 3.62. Eight of his nine wins are finishes, and Elliott has been stopped once already this year.

What We Were Watching For

Oliveira's output — 8.28 strikes a minute is more than double Elliott's 3.62.
Whether Elliott looks for takedowns early to break Oliveira's rhythm.
Elliott's recovery from a submission loss in January.
Oliveira's first real step up in competition at 9-0.

Records & career stats

Elliott vs Oliveira

Elliott Oliveira

OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.62 8.28
Striking def.Striking defense 60% 64%
DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.36 3.35
Takedown def.Takedown defense 52% 100%
FinishingFinish rate 50% 89%

12-4-0
Record: 9-0-0; 3-2 last 5
Recent form: 5-0 last 5; British
Nationality: Brazil; 28
Age: 28; 1.83 m
Height — Oliveira leads: 1.85 m; 183 cm
Reach — Oliveira leads: 199 cm; —
Stance: —; 50%
Finish rateFinish % — Oliveira leads: 89%; 3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Oliveira leads: 9; 3
Wins by submissionSub wins — Elliott leads: 0; 3.62
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Oliveira leads: 8.28; 2.36
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Elliott leads: 3.35; 60%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Oliveira leads: 64%; 52%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Oliveira leads: 100%; 11:34
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 05:23; Shore Mixed Martial Arts
Team: KO Squad MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

(1) 8%

LElliott

92% (11)

OliveiraW

Analyst prediction scorecards

Bedtime MMA170 resolved calls Bedtime MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 70.6% 120 50 Method Accuracy 63.6% 56 32 Round Accuracy 40.0% 10 15 Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Believes Elliott's wrestling will not land on the bigger, more physically gifted Oliveira, who controls range behind the jab and counters patiently. “You know what I'm saying, dude? Like, Oan Elliot, it was nice having you Oan Elliot, it was nice having you around. You know, listen, I I'm picking Michael Olivera by KO. I I I I'm picking Michael Olivera by KO. I I I do feel like, listen, here's this is do feel like, listen, here's this is what I'll say. I think Oan Elliot can what I'll say. I think Oan Elliot can actually do good in this matchup. I feel actually do good in this matchup. I feel like this is going to be one of those like this is” Hear it — 13:21 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 120 of 170 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
AJ Devito237 resolved calls AJ DevitoView full track record Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72 Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42 Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2 Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Sees Oliveira as a freakishly powerful, technically patient striker with a large size and reach edge, and thinks a declining Elliott has been handed a nightmare matchup. “to me fading him against a terrifying Brazilian UFC debut. His game's Brazilian UFC debut. His game's ruthless, man. And I'm going Michael ruthless, man. And I'm going Michael Alivera to knock Oban out. So, we're Alivera to knock Oban out. So, we're going with the Brazilian freak to pull going with the Brazilian freak to pull this one off. And I think he is getting this one off. And I think he is getting a KO. Next fight up the card featured a KO. Next fight up the card featured prelim of the ni” Hear it — 35:16 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗ AJ Devito’s track record → Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
KennyOkoyeMMA53 resolved calls KennyOkoyeMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17 Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2 Round Accuracy 0.0% 2 Underdog Accuracy 62.5% 5 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Expects a close first round, then Oliveira coming alive with the faster, harder shots, while admitting he is rooting for Elliott and calling it a close decision fight. “comfortable in winning, it's like I'll probably lean Oliveira by either late probably lean Oliveira by either late finish or Oliveira by uh points. So, I'm finish or Oliveira by uh points. So, I'm going to go Michael Oliveira, but this going to go Michael Oliveira, but this is still a competitive close fight. It is still a competitive close fight. It could should be interesting. I do [ __ ] could should be interesting. I do [ __ ] with Oban. Oban, we still follow each with Ob” Hear it — 9:31 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗ KennyOkoyeMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 36 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls Michael ChiesaView full track record Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20 Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “card, I'm taking Mark O. Madsen. And then in the welterweight tilt between then in the welterweight tilt between Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira, I'm Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira, I'm going with Oliveira. And in the featured going with Oliveira. And in the featured prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq Musayev. So, one more time, guys, I'm Musayev. So, one more time, guys, I'm takin” Hear it — 2:09 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗ Michael Chiesa’s track record → Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
JakeGerberMMA116 resolved calls JakeGerberMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.4% 77 39 Method Accuracy 61.7% 29 18 Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Thinks Elliott has been badly overrated and calls this a layup for Oliveira, who has a six-and-a-half-inch reach edge, real power and a solid gas tank. “like the UFC just tossing a layup here for Michael Alivera to get the two-hand for Michael Alivera to get the two-hand jam and put on some style points here. jam and put on some style points here. Michael Alivera is knocking out Oon Michael Alivera is knocking out Oon Elliott. And I think it might take a Elliott. And I think it might take a little bit of time, but I'm going to say little bit of time, but I'm going to say first or second round knockout. I'll first or second round knockout. I'll l” Hear it — 33:32 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 77 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Guru296 resolved calls The MMA GuruView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101 Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49 Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23 Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Underdog call, market price 23.5%. Elliott · Dec	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Miss	Not applicable — the winner call missed	Not applicable — the winner call missed
Backs Elliott as a near 3-to-1 underdog on craft and experience, saying the green Oliveira has not seen entries like Elliott's takedown-to-knee-and-low-kick sequences. “Nikolic getting this one done by brutal finish, in all honesty, in the first two finish, in all honesty, in the first two rounds. rounds. Ode Osbourne Elliott versus Michael Ode Osbourne Elliott versus Michael Oliveira. Listen. Oliveira. Listen. Somehow, someway, we're pulling this one Somehow, someway, we're pulling this one off. off. I've been casting spells on Michael I've been casting spells on Michael Oliveira. I've done some Garusalem Oliveira. I've done some Garusalem voodoo to ensure our” Hear it — 13:01 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗ The MMA Guru’s track record → Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
DFS By The Numbers142 resolved calls DFS By The NumbersView full track record Winner Accuracy 65.5% 93 49 Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34 Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25 Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Describes Oliveira as terrifying and impossible to take down, marching opponents down and breaking them, while Elliott is on back-to-back losses and has been finished repeatedly. “Elliott's been subbed once, but I think he's going to get knocked out again he's going to get knocked out again here. I mean, I give me a Michael here. I mean, I give me a Michael Oliveira. Give me a Michael Oliveira by Oliveira. Give me a Michael Oliveira by brutal brutal brutal brutal brutal second round knockout. brutal second round knockout. Up [snorts] next we have Nina Milosevic Up [snorts] next we have Nina Milosevic going against Hailey Cowan. going against Hailey Cowan. We got Milosevic” Hear it — 15:44 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 142 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
We Want Picks145 resolved calls We Want PicksView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52 Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Elliott’s losses come from being taken down and Oliveira does not wrestle, so he expects a striker-versus-striker fight that Oliveira’s volume and pressure win. “This is not as clear as people are going to make it. Minus 400, you're just snap to make it. Minus 400, you're just snap decision. I don't necessarily agree with decision. I don't necessarily agree with that. Michael is the pick. He should that. Michael is the pick. He should win. win. But odds matter. But odds matter. And Oban, yes, he's on a recent skid, And Oban, yes, he's on a recent skid, but that's because he was taken down. but that's because he was taken down. His losses are from people ” Hear it — 21:46 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record → Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
HopperMMA120 resolved calls HopperMMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 63.3% 76 44 Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23 Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19 Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R1	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Hit
Says he was never on the Oban Elliott hype train — good everywhere, great nowhere — against an athletic undefeated Brazilian with an 89% KO rate. “striking subpar. And then he got dominated by Suk Kim Cowan, destroyed by dominated by Suk Kim Cowan, destroyed by Jonathan Mekhonnin. I'm going to go with Jonathan Mekhonnin. I'm going to go with Michael Oliveira by KO in the first Michael Oliveira by KO in the first round. Yeah, Michael Oliveira looks round. Yeah, Michael Oliveira looks dangerous, man. Very athletic guy, dangerous, man. Very athletic guy, undefeated guy from Brazil who knocks undefeated guy from Brazil who knocks everybody out” Hear it — 3:53 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗ HopperMMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 76 of 120 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Half The Battle87 resolved calls Half The BattleView full track record Winner Accuracy 60.9% 53 34 Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 29.4% 5 12 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Not called
Names Oliveira his fighter to watch and a future top-10 guy — cerebral, technical, good takedown defence — while Elliott has fallen off since the Hafez win. “main card for a numbered event because this guy, Michael Oliveira, is the this guy, Michael Oliveira, is the absolute goods and I think he's going to absolute goods and I think he's going to show that on Saturday when he comes out show that on Saturday when he comes out here and knocks out Oban Elliott. If here and knocks out Oban Elliott. If you're planning on betting on the fights you're planning on betting on the fights this weekend, I wanted to let y'all know this weekend, I wanted to let y'” Hear it — 33:06 Half The Battle on YouTube ↗ Half The Battle’s track record → Track record: winner called in 53 of 87 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)View full track record Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28 Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11 Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7 Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Hit	Miss
Grants Elliott heart, cardio and the only grappling path, but expects him to press forward and run into Oliveira's left hook from a much longer, more damaging striker. “feel like he's that likely to be able to strike for three rounds without getting strike for three rounds without getting clipped with that heat. So, give me clipped with that heat. So, give me Oliveira via round two KO/TKO. Oliveira via round two KO/TKO. And man, I mean, the good fights just And man, I mean, the good fights just keep on coming. I know a lot of people keep on coming. I know a lot of people [ __ ] on this card, but maybe I'm like a [ __ ] on this card, but mayb” Hear it — 40:53 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗ MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record → Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Bookie Beatdown26 resolved calls Bookie BeatdownView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 13 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 1 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Historic market Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win	Oliveira · KO/TKO R1	Hit	Not called	Not called
Rates Oliveira a far better athlete with a stiff jab, reach and power, and sees Elliott as a generalist with takedown and striking-defence holes. “know, trying to move away, try to mitigate some of the damage. And none of mitigate some of the damage. And none of that looks good for the judges. So, it's that looks good for the judges. So, it's Michael Oliveira for me. Michael Oliveira for me. >> All right, moving on down, we've got uh >> All right, moving on down, we've got uh Bogdan Grad taking on Dennis Buzukja. Bogdan Grad minus 200 favorite, come Bogdan Grad minus 200 favorite, come back on Buzukja plus 174. back on Buzukja ” Hear it — 70:15 Bookie Beatdown on YouTube ↗ Bookie Beatdown’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

11 of 12 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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