Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert — Oct. 10 UFC Fight Night

Scheduled · 10 Oct 2026 UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Allen vs. Duncan · Lightweight · Co-Main Event · 3 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada

Matheus
Camilo

View profile

Record

Wins: 11
Losses: 3
Draws: 0

5KO/TKO

2Sub

4Dec

Red corner

11-3-0
Record: 14-6-1; Brazil
Nationality: United Kingdom; 25
Age: 38; 1.778 m
Height — Herbert leads: 185.42 cm; 176.53 cm
Reach — Herbert leads: 195.58 cm; 2.22
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Herbert leads: 3.19; 64%
Finish rateFinish % — Herbert leads: 79%

Jai
Herbert

View profile

Record

Wins: 14
Losses: 6
Draws: 1

10KO/TKO

1Sub

3Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+10)

11-3-0
Record: 14-6-1; Not published
Recent form: Not published; Not published
Stance: Not published; 5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Herbert leads: 10; 2
Wins by submissionSub wins — Camilo leads: 1; 3.05
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Camilo leads: 3.34; 67%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Camilo leads: 53%; Not published
Takedown defenseTD def.: 67%; 08:25
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 10:42; Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV
Team: Renegade Jiu-Jitsu

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks14 analysts 71%10 picks 29%4 picks

AI PredictionComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right now

Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right now

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What to expect

Case for Camilo

Camilo is 11-3-0 and 4-1 over his last five, with UFC wins over Viacheslav Borshchev in November 2025 and Nazim Sadykhov in June 2026. His tape is grappling-oriented, with a 4.16 takedown average and 53% takedown accuracy, which gives him a clear plan against an opponent listed at 67% takedown defense.

Case for Herbert

Herbert is 14-6-1 with ten of his wins by knockout, and he lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute while defending 53% of the strikes thrown at him. His 67% takedown defense is the base for keeping the fight standing, where his knockout power is most dangerous.

What to Watch

Whether Camilo's 4.16 takedown average holds up against Herbert's 67% takedown defense.
How much of the fight is spent standing, where Herbert has produced ten of his 14 wins.
Camilo's recent form, 4-1 over his last five, against a veteran with six career losses.
Pace and distance: Camilo's average fight time is 8:25 and Herbert's is 10:42.

Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

(10) 71% Camilo

29% (4) Herbert

Analyst prediction scorecards

James Lynch33 resolved calls James LynchView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 22 11 Method Accuracy 53.8% 7 6 Round Accuracy 0.0% 5 Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · Dec	Upcoming	Camilo	Dec	Not called
James Lynch picks Matheus Camilo to beat Jai Herbert by decision. Hear it — 19:10 James Lynch on YouTube ↗ James Lynch’s track record → Track record: winner called in 22 of 33 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Bert MMA12 resolved calls Bert MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4 Method Accuracy 100.0% 1 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Herbert · Dec	Upcoming	Herbert	Dec	Not called
Bert MMA picks the underdog Jai Herbert on a 29-28 scorecard, expecting a veteran, more technical Herbert to win rounds two and three. “I'm going to go 29-28.” Hear it — 7:24 Bert MMA on YouTube ↗ Bert MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 8 of 12 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Clenbat25 resolved calls ClenbatView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.0% 16 9 Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Herbert · to win	Upcoming	Herbert	Not called	Not called
Clenbat picks the underdog Jai Herbert with low-to-medium confidence, citing his height and reach advantage. Hear it — 19:01 Clenbat on YouTube ↗ Clenbat’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Artem MMA60 resolved calls Artem MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.7% 37 23 Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11 Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2 Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Herbert · to win	Upcoming	Herbert	Not called	Not called
Artem MMA picks the 38-year-old Jai Herbert over Matheus Camilo, calling it a hipster pick. Hear it — 25:27 Artem MMA on YouTube ↗ Artem MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 37 of 60 resolved picks, 20 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Fight Productions31 resolved calls Fight ProductionsView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.3% 19 12 Method Accuracy 73.7% 14 5 Round Accuracy 38.5% 5 8 Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · KO/TKO · R1	Upcoming	Camilo	KO/TKO	R1
Fight Productions leans Matheus Camilo, citing more ways to mix it up and the finishing edge on the feet, by first-round knockout. “I'm going to take Camilo to win this one by round one knockout.” Hear it — 36:50 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗ Fight Productions’s track record → Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Walk The Line MMA22 resolved calls Walk The Line MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 59.1% 13 9 Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3 Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · KO/TKO	Upcoming	Camilo	KO/TKO	Not called
Walk The Line MMA expects Matheus Camilo to finish Jai Herbert by TKO, noting Herbert has been finished before. Hear it — 49:45 Walk The Line MMA on YouTube ↗ Walk The Line MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 22 resolved picks, 5 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Andrew Richardson52 resolved calls Andrew RichardsonView full track record Winner Accuracy 57.7% 30 22 Method Accuracy 70.0% 21 9 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Herbert · Dec	Upcoming	Herbert	Dec	Not called
Andrew Richardson picks Jai Herbert to beat Matheus Camilo by decision. Read source Andrew Richardson’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 52 resolved picks, 21 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Cole Shelton88 resolved calls Cole SheltonView full track record Winner Accuracy 55.7% 49 39 Method Accuracy 66.7% 2 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · to win	Upcoming	Camilo	Not called	Not called
Cole Shelton picks Matheus Camilo to beat Jai Herbert. Read source Cole Shelton’s track record → Track record: winner called in 49 of 88 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Adam Martin29 resolved calls Adam MartinView full track record Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · KO/TKO · R1	Upcoming	Camilo	KO/TKO	R1
Adam Martin picks Matheus Camilo to beat Jai Herbert by knockout in round one. Hear it — 20:38 Adam Martin’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Yuda34 resolved calls The MMA YudaView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 17 17 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · to win	Upcoming	Camilo	Not called	Not called
The MMA Yuda picks Matheus Camilo over Jai Herbert. “I'm picking Mattheus Camo to win this fight.” Hear it — 32:15 The MMA Yuda on YouTube ↗ The MMA Yuda’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA JAWN10 resolved calls MMA JAWNView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 5 5 Method Accuracy 100.0% 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · Dec	Upcoming	Camilo	Dec	Not called
The MMA JAWN channel picks Matheus Camilo to beat Jai Herbert by decision. Hear it — 19:43 MMA JAWN on YouTube ↗ MMA JAWN’s track record → Track record: winner called in 5 of 10 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · KO/TKO · R1	Upcoming	Camilo	KO/TKO	R1
Schweppe picks Matheus Camilo by first-round knockout. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Chris Cross17 resolved calls Chris CrossView full track record Winner Accuracy 47.1% 8 9 Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · to win	Upcoming	Camilo	Not called	Not called
TCMMA Podcast likes Matheus Camilo to get the job done in a very close fight built on takedowns and control time. Hear it — 2:52 Chris Cross on YouTube ↗ Chris Cross’s track record → Track record: winner called in 8 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Brandon K12 resolved calls Brandon KView full track record Winner Accuracy 33.3% 4 8 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Camilo · Dec	Upcoming	Camilo	Dec	Not called
The Brandon K channel picks Matheus Camilo to beat Jai Herbert by decision. Hear it — 44:52 Brandon K on YouTube ↗ Brandon K’s track record → Track record: winner called in 4 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

4 of 14 see a finish — 4 by KO/TKO, 5 by decision.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

Latest eligible AI predictions load when this page is online.

Odds

No consensus line is published for this bout yet. A live price may appear when online; this page will not present an unverified or stale line as current.

Checking the latest live price when online.

Best available price

Matheus Camilo: -190 at BetRivers
Jai Herbert: +160 at DraftKings

Highest American-odds quote among 3 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 9, 23:28 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)

Matheus Camilo: -190 at BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Bovada
Jai Herbert: +163 at Bovada

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Camilo vs Herbert — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan