Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto

Scheduled · 10 Oct 2026 UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Allen vs. Duncan · Women's Flyweight · Preliminary Card · 3 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada

Ernesta
Kareckaitė

Record

Wins: 6
Losses: 2
Draws: 1

2KO/TKO

0Sub

4Dec

Red corner

6-2-1
Record: 9-3-2; Lithuania
Nationality: Brazil; 28
Age: 30; 175.26 cm
Height — Kareckaitė leads: 165.1 cm; 180.34 cm
Reach — Kareckaitė leads: 175.26 cm; 7.28
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Kareckaitė leads: 3.47; 33%
Finish rateFinish % — Gatto leads: 78%

Melissa
Gatto

View profile

Record

Wins: 9
Losses: 3
Draws: 2

3KO/TKO

4Sub

2Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+9)

6-2-1
Record: 9-3-2; Not published
Recent form: 2-3 last 5; Not published
Stance: Not published; 2
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Gatto leads: 3; 0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Gatto leads: 4; 6.47
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Gatto leads: 2.67; 50%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Gatto leads: 54%; 81%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Kareckaitė leads: 59%; 15:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. time: 12:44

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

At a glance

Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.

Analyst Picks14 analysts 79%11 picks 21%3 picks

AI PredictionComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right now

Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right now

Analyst picks AI forecasts Market odds

What to expect

Case for Kareckaitė

Kareckaitė is 6-2-1 with two knockouts and four decisions, and her tape is built on volume: 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute against 6.47 absorbed. At 1.75 m with a 180 cm reach she is the longer fighter against Gatto's 1.65 m and 175 cm, and her 81% takedown defense is the best defensive figure on either side against an opponent who averages 1.77 takedowns.

Case for Gatto

Gatto is 9-3-2 with four submissions, three knockouts and two decisions, and her listed style is jiu-jitsu, with a 1.77 takedown average and a 0.39 submission average. She lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and defends 54%. She comes off a majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa at UFC Fight Night in April 2026, and her last win was a third-round body-punch TKO of Tamires Vidal in May 2024.

What to Watch

Whether Gatto's 1.77 takedown average can beat Kareckaitė's 81% takedown defense.
Volume against efficiency: Kareckaitė lands 7.28 strikes per minute at 42% accuracy, Gatto 3.47 at 50%.
Reach: Kareckaitė's 180 cm and 1.75 m frame against Gatto's 175 cm and 1.65 m.
Finishing paths: Gatto has seven stoppages in nine wins, while four of Kareckaitė's six wins went to a decision.

Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

(11) 79% Kareckaitė

21% (3) Gatto

Analyst prediction scorecards

James Lynch33 resolved calls James LynchView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 22 11 Method Accuracy 53.8% 7 6 Round Accuracy 0.0% 5 Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Gatto · Dec	Upcoming	Gatto	Dec	Not called
James Lynch picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by decision. Hear it — 1:43 James Lynch on YouTube ↗ James Lynch’s track record → Track record: winner called in 22 of 33 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Marcel Dorff18 resolved calls Marcel DorffView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 12 6 Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4 Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
Marcel Dorff picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Hear it — 4:46 Marcel Dorff’s track record → Track record: winner called in 12 of 18 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Bert MMA12 resolved calls Bert MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4 Method Accuracy 100.0% 1 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
Bert MMA's card recap has the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite winning by decision. Hear it — 23:38 Bert MMA on YouTube ↗ Bert MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 8 of 12 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Clenbat25 resolved calls ClenbatView full track record Winner Accuracy 64.0% 16 9 Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · to win	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Not called	Not called
Clenbat picks Ernesta Kareckaite with medium confidence, citing her height and reach advantage. Hear it — 10:47 Clenbat on YouTube ↗ Clenbat’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Artem MMA60 resolved calls Artem MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.7% 37 23 Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11 Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2 Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
Artem MMA picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite by decision. Hear it — 4:10 Artem MMA on YouTube ↗ Artem MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 37 of 60 resolved picks, 20 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Fight Productions31 resolved calls Fight ProductionsView full track record Winner Accuracy 61.3% 19 12 Method Accuracy 73.7% 14 5 Round Accuracy 38.5% 5 8 Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
Fight Productions backs Ernesta Kareckaite by decision, expecting her volume to win over Melissa Gatto. Hear it — 4:02 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗ Fight Productions’s track record → Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
KingofCrackdown509528 resolved calls KingofCrackdown5095View full track record Winner Accuracy 60.7% 17 11 Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5 Round Accuracy 28.6% 2 5 Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Ernesta Kareckaite to beat Melissa Gatto by decision, at low confidence. No round is predicted. Hear it — 2:04 KingofCrackdown5095 on YouTube ↗ KingofCrackdown5095’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 28 resolved picks, 4 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Walk The Line MMA22 resolved calls Walk The Line MMAView full track record Winner Accuracy 59.1% 13 9 Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3 Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
Walk The Line MMA sides with the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite on a 29-28 scorecard, expecting her striking to take two rounds. Hear it — 17:51 Walk The Line MMA on YouTube ↗ Walk The Line MMA’s track record → Track record: winner called in 13 of 22 resolved picks, 5 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Adam Martin29 resolved calls Adam MartinView full track record Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13 Method Accuracy 0.0% 4 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
Adam Martin picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Hear it — 3:54 Adam Martin’s track record → Track record: winner called in 16 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
The MMA Yuda34 resolved calls The MMA YudaView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 17 17 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · to win	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Not called	Not called
The MMA Yuda picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite, citing her volume and footwork against wrestling attempts. Hear it — 8:26 The MMA Yuda on YouTube ↗ The MMA Yuda’s track record → Track record: winner called in 17 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
MMA JAWN10 resolved calls MMA JAWNView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 5 5 Method Accuracy 100.0% 1 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
The MMA JAWN channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Hear it — 5:17 MMA JAWN on YouTube ↗ MMA JAWN’s track record → Track record: winner called in 5 of 10 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Kyle Marley4 resolved calls Kyle MarleyView full track record Winner Accuracy 50.0% 2 2 Method Accuracy 0.0% 2 Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Gatto · Dec	Upcoming	Gatto	Dec	Not called
Kyle Marley picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by unanimous decision, as stated in a SportsLine article written by Daniel Kohn. Read source Kyle Marley’s track record → Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Chris Schweppe61 resolved calls Chris SchweppeView full track record Winner Accuracy 49.2% 30 31 Method Accuracy 53.3% 16 14 Round Accuracy 27.3% 6 16 Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 3 11 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Gatto · Sub · R2	Upcoming	Gatto	Sub	R2
Schweppe picks Melissa Gatto by second-round submission. Read source Chris Schweppe’s track record → Track record: winner called in 30 of 61 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Brandon K12 resolved calls Brandon KView full track record Winner Accuracy 33.3% 4 8 Method Accuracy 0.0% 1 Round Accuracy 0.0% 1 Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3 How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls	Kareckaitė · Dec	Upcoming	Kareckaitė	Dec	Not called
The Brandon K channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Hear it — 47:57 Brandon K on YouTube ↗ Brandon K’s track record → Track record: winner called in 4 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

1 of 14 see a finish — 1 by submission, 11 by decision.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

Latest eligible AI predictions load when this page is online.

Odds

No consensus line is published for this bout yet. A live price may appear when online; this page will not present an unverified or stale line as current.

Checking the latest live price when online.

Best available price

Ernesta Kareckaitė: +100 at DraftKings
Melissa Gatto: -116 at FanDuel

Highest American-odds quote among 3 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 9, 23:28 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)

Ernesta Kareckaitė: +107 at BetOnline.ag
Melissa Gatto: -112 at Bovada

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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Kareckaitė vs Gatto — Women's Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan