UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev  24 Oct 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Lone’er Kavanagh defeats Ramazan Temirov by KO/TKO

Win Lone’er Kavanagh 11-2-0
Loss Ramazan Temirov 20-4-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 1 · 4:28

Kavanagh vs Temirov · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Both flyweights landed good shots as they traded over the first three minutes.

Late in the round Kavanagh connected with an uppercut that froze Temirov, and the precise follow-up strikes left him down on the canvas for the stoppage.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Kavanagh

Kavanagh's 10-2 record and 4.13 significant strikes landed per minute make sustained output his clearest route in this flyweight matchup. His profile lists 50% striking accuracy and 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him both a striking base and a possible level-change option against Temirov's finishing threat.

Case for Temirov

Temirov enters at 20-3 with 12 knockout wins and 11 first-round finishes; UFC's latest listed result is a first-round TKO of Steve Erceg in July 2026. His 4.73 significant strikes landed per minute and 3.38 knockdowns per 15 minutes point to the danger of letting his power dictate an open exchange.

What We Were Watching For

  • Can Kavanagh keep Temirov from converting his 3.38 knockdowns-per-15-minute rate into clean early damage?
  • Whether Kavanagh can use his 4.13 significant strikes per minute to outscore Temirov without accepting prolonged exchanges.
  • Does Kavanagh's 1.12 takedowns-per-15-minute rate provide a credible way to vary the striking rhythm?
  • How Temirov's 11 first-round finishes shape the opening pace if Kavanagh can extend the fight.
Records & career stats
Kavanagh vs Temirov
10-2-0
Record
20-3-0
Not published
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Not published
England
Nationality
Uzbekistan
27
Age
29
5′6″168 cm
Height — Kavanagh leads
5′4″163 cm
67″170 cm
Reach — Kavanagh leads
63″160 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Not published
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
65%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Temirov leads
12
1
Wins by submissionSub wins
1
4.13
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Temirov leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.73
3.94
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Temirov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.65
54%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Temirov leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
62%
83%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Temirov leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
100%
13:27
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
07:24
Great Britain Top Team · London
Team
Legion Fight Club

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

The Cage Doctor
Hear it — 12:14 The Cage Doctor on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

The Cage Doctor picks Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

“I’m going to pick Loner Kavanagh.”

Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).

View full track record (9 calls)
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Lone’er Kavanagh for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Billy Ward
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).

View full track record (7 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

FightIQ's snapshot explicitly predicts Lone'er Kavanagh at site-displayed confidence of 55%; tier LOW.

“We predict Lone'er Kavanagh — 55% confident”

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 30:39 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision. Very low confidence

“it's scary. I'll go Kavanaaugh by”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 36:22 Gemini YouTube analysisLucas Tracy on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

“i'm leaning loner kavanaaugh”

* Analyst stated a lean

Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Tom Feely
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Sherdog preview by Tom Feely names Kavanagh as the pick, by decision.

“The pick is Kavanagh by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 70:24 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

MMA Lock of the Night picks Lone’er Kavanagh by KO/TKO. round two or round three

“two, round three knockout for Looney”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 41:24 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

* Acknowledges Temirov’s power and danger while selecting Kavanagh by first-round TKO.

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 55:39 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

JakeGerberMMA picks Lone’er Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 2.

“Aljamain Sterling a call. Bye knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
Fite Feed
Hear it — 27:45 Fite Feed on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Fite Feed picks Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision.

“Loni Kavanagh by way of decision. Lock it in”

Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).

View full track record (37 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 28:34 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

DFS By The Numbers picks Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision. Slight lean; expects Kavanagh to lose or be hurt in round one, then win the later rounds.

“Give me Loni Kavanagh by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Lone’er Kavanagh for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
138 MMA
Hear it — 33:02 138 MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

138 MMA sides with Lone’er Kavanagh and considers a decision his most likely winning route.

* He worries about a Temirov knockout and also allows Kavanagh knockout or submission alternatives.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
HopperMMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
Michael Bisping
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMichael Bisping on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).

View full track record (39 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 30:04 James Blissett on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Backs Kavanagh by decision on skill, saying Temirov's knockout-in-round-one route is a betting angle rather than his pick.

Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).

View full track record (79 calls)
Garrett Kerman
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.6% (20 hit, 13 miss, across 33 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 33 resolved calls).

View full track record (33 calls)
Tom Taylor
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

Track record: winner called in 6 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

FightChoice's current AI ensemble narrowly selects Lone’er Kavanagh at 51.0% and predicts a decision, despite most individual models favoring Ramazan Temirov. It supersedes the page's older Temirov selection.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
MMA Mathletes
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMMA Mathletes on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 28:07 KingofCrackdown5095 on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision. low confidence

“So, in this one I got Lanier Kownacki”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).

View full track record (63 calls)
Michael Mormile
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (22 hit, 16 miss, across 38 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 38 resolved calls).

View full track record (38 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 39:40 Mike Finch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

* Expects Kavanagh to lose the first round and win the next two; acknowledges Temirov’s power and discusses a kick-based finish as an alternative.

Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 44:49 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Fight Productions selects Lone’er Kavanagh by round-2 knockout.

“I'm going to take Kavanaaugh to win this one by round two knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Kasper MMA
Hear it — 10:18 Gemini YouTube analysisKasper MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

“so I'm picking Kavanaaugh to win by decision”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).

View full track record (42 calls)
Shakiel Mahjouri
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

Track record: winner called in 25 of 46 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.3% (25 hit, 21 miss, across 46 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (10 hit, 10 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 9 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 46 resolved calls).

View full track record (46 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Schweppe explicitly selects Kavanagh by decision.

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
Voice of MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisVoice of MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).

View full track record (21 calls)
Andy Lang
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Lone’er Kavanagh to win.

Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).

View full track record (35 calls)
Sean Sheehan
Hear it — 16:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

In his recap Sheehan goes with Kavanagh, saying he has stuck with him this far.

“I'll go with my guy, Lonnie Kavana.”

Track record: winner called in 4 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).

View full track record (8 calls)
Brandon K
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisBrandon K on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).

View full track record (45 calls)
The Lab Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Lone'er Kavanagh (53.7% model probability; LOW confidence, LEAN tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).

View full track record (25 calls)
Josh Schonwald
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lone’er Kavanagh

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Josh Schonwald picks Lone’er Kavanagh, per the Doc's Sports pick line.

“Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Lone'er Kavanagh (-102)”

Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).

View full track record (15 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 27:09 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Bedtime MMA picks Ramazan Temirov by KO/TKO in round 2.

“I'm going with Ramazan Temirov by knockout”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 23:36 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).

View full track record (75 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 76:40 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

AJ Devito picks Ramazan Temirov.

“I'm going to go powerhouse Tarov.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
Brent Brookhouse
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 28 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.1% (28 hit, 15 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 22.2% (2 hit, 7 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Ramazan Temirov for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Mate Bersenadze
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).

View full track record (52 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 27:20 Livid Larry MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Livid Larry MMA picks Ramazan Temirov by KO/TKO. Official lean; very close fight

“done by KO officially. Um, and it's not”

Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 17:02 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

MMA JOEY picks Ramazan Temirov over Lone’er Kavanagh, calling Temirov next level after citing his win over Steve Erceg.

“I'm going Tamirvov.”

* Captions garble both names; the adjacent matchup and official UFC 333 card identify Kavanagh vs. Temirov.

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
Jake Letarski
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Combat Edge Model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Combat Edge Model’s frozen UFC 333 forecast favors Ramazan Temirov (58%) over Lone’er Kavanagh (42%); the source publishes winner probabilities, not a method or round. Observation snapshot: 2026-10-17 (not asserted as the original publication or lock date); the source labels this forecast version v0.8-2026-10-04.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
Fight Genie (Claude)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · Dec

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_22260e for Kavanagh–Temirov on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

The Oracle selects Ramazan Temirov with a 52% win probability.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Tim Edwards
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
Kunath
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisKunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · Round 1

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Artem MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisArtem MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).

View full track record (95 calls)
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

MMA Intel explicitly selects Ramazan Temirov; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Ramazan Temirov for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Ramazan Temirov for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Ramazan Temirov for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Fight Society
Hear it — 12:59 Fight Society on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Fight Society picks Ramazan Temirov because he is on home soil, has bricks for hands, and has already shown the power to chin Kavanagh.

“I'm going to go with Temirov by KO in this fight just because we've seen Kevana chinned before.”

Track record: winner called in 4 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).

View full track record (7 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine explicitly selects Ramazan Temirov; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).

View full track record (124 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Andrew Richardson predicts Temirov by knockout, citing Kavanagh coming off a grueling loss to Royval three months ago.

“Prediction: Temirov via knockout”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Brian Campbell
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 3

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 24 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.8% (24 hit, 19 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.0% (13 hit, 7 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 7.1% (1 hit, 13 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
Fight Genie (GPT)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_22260e for Kavanagh–Temirov on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Ramazan Temirov by ko/tko; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Ian Undery
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 5 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).

View full track record (9 calls)
Aniki MMA
Hear it — 33:52 Gemini YouTube analysisAniki MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

“so yeah give me Ramisan Tim by second round KO”

Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).

View full track record (30 calls)
Half The Battle
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHalf The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisTonyHasDiedMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).

View full track record (53 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 59:44 Greedo Plays MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Greedo picks Ramazan Temirov by first-round knockout.

* He says Kavanagh could have success if he survives the first round, but does not expect him to do so.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).

View full track record (72 calls)
Walk The Line MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisWalk The Line MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Brandon Wise
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 21 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 48.8% (21 hit, 22 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 8.3% (1 hit, 11 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
DON SMOKE MMA
Hear it — 8:50 Gemini YouTube analysisDON SMOKE MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

“I'm going to go with Tamarov”

Track record: winner called in 12 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 46.2% (12 hit, 14 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).

View full track record (26 calls)
Andrew Sumian
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Combat Press preview by Andrew Sumian names Temirov by knockout. The sentence says "the English native"; the article places it in the Kavanagh vs. Temirov section.

“He is going to hand the English native his second straight loss, and this time, it will be by knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).

View full track record (40 calls)
Lyle Fitzsimmons
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 4 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
Ethan Diamandas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).

View full track record (5 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Ramazan Temirov over Lone'er Kavanagh (55% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Chris Faria
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Lone’er Kavanagh · KO/TKO

Selects Ramazan Temirov to win.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)

Analyst picks: The Cage Doctor Hit; UFC Predict — Logistic Core Hit; Billy Ward Hit; Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Michael Chiesa Miss; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Brent Brookhouse Miss; Fite Feed Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; UFC Predict — CatBoost Miss; UFC Predict — Main + Market Hit; 138 MMA Hit; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Livid Larry MMA Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; Jake Letarski Miss; James Blissett Hit; Garrett Kerman Hit; Combat Edge Model Miss; Tom Taylor Hit; FightChoice AI ensemble Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; Fight Genie (Claude) Miss; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Miss; Tim Edwards Miss; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Kunath Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Michael Mormile Hit; Mike Finch Hit; MMA Intel Miss; UFC Predict — Ensemble Miss; UFC Predict — LightGBM Miss; UFC Predict — XGBoost Miss; Fight Society Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Fight Productions Hit; Brian Campbell Miss; Fight Genie (GPT) Miss; MMA.SOCIAL Miss; Ian Undery Miss; Kasper MMA Hit; Shakiel Mahjouri Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Aniki MMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Voice of MMA Hit; Andy Lang Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Walk The Line MMA Miss; Sean Sheehan Hit; Brandon Wise Miss; DON SMOKE MMA Miss; Andrew Sumian Miss; Brandon K Hit; The Lab Analytics Hit; Josh Schonwald Hit; Lyle Fitzsimmons Miss; Ethan Diamandas Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss; Chris Faria Miss.

34 of 72 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability ChatGPT put 55% on Kavanagh.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
55% Kavanagh
44% Temirov
PickKavanagh · DecisionActualKavanagh · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
39% Kavanagh
59% Temirov
PickTemirov · DecisionActualKavanagh · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook underdogMissSportsbook underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Sportsbook underdog: underdog call, miss
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
53% Kavanagh
46% Temirov
PickKavanagh · DecisionActualKavanagh · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Kavanagh

    Most likely: Temirov by KO/TKO, about 33 in 100

    Win chance: Kavanagh 55%, Temirov 44%, draw or no contest 1%.

    gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Temirov

    Most likely: Temirov by decision, about 31 in 100

    Win chance: Kavanagh 39%, Temirov 59%, draw or no contest 2%.

    claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Kavanagh

    Most likely: Kavanagh by decision, about 38 in 100

    Win chance: Kavanagh 53%, Temirov 46%, draw or no contest 1%.

    Version not reported · 23 Oct

    Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

2 of 3 models pick Kavanagh; 1 of 3 models pick Temirov.

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Temirov: 44%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Temirov: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Kavanagh: 39%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Temirov: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov by KO/TKO: 33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Claude

    Temirov by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Temirov by KO/TKO (33%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (32%); 3. Kavanagh by KO/TKO (19%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov’s early punching power and stoppage of Erceg make a knockout his clearest route. Kavanagh’s knockout loss to Johnson shows the danger of sustained exchanges.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh’s reach, varied striking and five-round win over Moreno support a points victory if he manages distance. His stronger overall opposition provides a narrow confidence edge.
    • Kavanagh by KO/TKO: Kavanagh has the speed and counterpunching power to punish aggressive entries. Temirov’s forward pressure could create openings for clean, damaging counters.

  • Claude

    1. Temirov by decision (31%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (22%); 3. Temirov by KO/TKO (21%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov's wrestling, volume and power should win more rounds against a Kavanagh on a short turnaround.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh's accuracy and range striking could take a close decision if he stuffs takedowns.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov just stopped Erceg and carries power that could finish a tired Kavanagh.

  • Gemini

    1. Kavanagh by decision (38%); 2. Temirov by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Temirov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh holds notable height, reach, and footwork advantages, allowing him to manage distance and out-point Temirov over three rounds.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov carries explosive pocket power, and Kavanagh has previously shown defensive vulnerability against heavy punchers.
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov can bank rounds on damage and impact with fast forward bursts even if he does not find a clean finish.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 55% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Temirov's 59% win chance.

  • Gemini

    5 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 53% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Kavanagh win?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh wins 55%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh wins 53%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

How does Temirov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%, decision 10%.

  • Claude

    Temirov wins 59%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%, decision 31%.

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh to weather Temirov’s explosive attacks and win rounds with cleaner distance striking, though an early stoppage is a serious threat.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov should use power punches and wrestling to control a short-notice Kavanagh, most likely winning a decision, with a real chance of a late stoppage.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Lone’er Kavanagh should use his reach and footwork to control distance and outpoint Ramazan Temirov over three rounds, provided he survives Temirov's early knockout power.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 26%.

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 18%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 64% (from 55%), Temirov 35% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should find more opportunities to establish his kicks and counters as the opening intensity settles. Temirov can still win rounds with pressure, so surviving the first does not settle the matchup.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 39% (from 39%), Temirov 59% (from 59%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it reaches round two, the fight likely becomes a grind where Temirov's wrestling and volume wear on Kavanagh, though Kavanagh's accurate counters keep him live.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 60% (from 53%), Temirov 39% (from 46%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once the opening round passes, Temirov's primary knockout window narrows and his forward blitzes become easier to read. Kavanagh is then well positioned to settle into a steady rhythm and pick him apart from range.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1 (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov’s clearest route is to close distance early, force Kavanagh toward the fence and land powerful combinations before Kavanagh establishes his rhythm.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh's most likely upset: Kavanagh by decision (22%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh keeps distance, lands accurate counters and pot-shots, defends takedowns, and takes a clear rounds-based decision or catches Temirov coming in.

  • Gemini

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by decision (16%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is most likely to win by closing the distance with explosive forward bursts to catch Kavanagh in the pocket for an early stoppage, or by stealing rounds with big damaging moments.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should attack the legs, counter Temirov’s entries and exit exchanges at an angle, mixing in takedowns when available. Temirov should cut off the cage and deliver compact combinations without overextending.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: stay at range, win the accuracy battle and stuff takedowns. Temirov: pressure with power punches, mix in wrestling to drain Kavanagh and finish with ground-and-pound or a late TKO.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's best path is to stay on the move, use long kicks and straight punches to maintain distance, and win a clear decision. Temirov's best path is to cut off the cage early and force chaotic pocket exchanges where his heavy hands can find a finish.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Kavanagh can land low kicks and leave safely, and whether Temirov reaches punching range without absorbing clean counters.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov closes distance and gets Kavanagh to the fence or ground, and whether Kavanagh's counters land cleanly as Temirov enters.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov can cut off the cage to trap Kavanagh near the fence, and whether Kavanagh keeps his chin protected when exiting pocket exchanges.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Kavanagh, Claude: Temirov, Gemini: Kavanagh).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by KO/TKO (33%).

  • Claude

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by decision (31%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Kavanagh by decision (38%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    7% (about 7 in 100).

  • Claude

    6% (about 6 in 100).

  • Gemini

    5% (about 5 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 52%, submission 5%, decision 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 40%, submission 5%, decision 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

  • Claude

    2%.

  • Gemini

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov: 34%, against 23% for Kavanagh.

  • Claude

    Temirov: 28%, against 17% for Kavanagh.

  • Gemini

    Temirov: 30%, against 15% for Kavanagh.

Can Kavanagh get the finish? Can Temirov?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 23% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%). Temirov: 34% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Kavanagh: 17% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Temirov: 28% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%). Temirov: 30% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 1%. Temirov is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 4%.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 7%. Temirov is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 2%. Temirov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 39%.

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh by decision: 32%. Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1: 18%.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh by decision: 22%. Temirov by decision: 31%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38%. Temirov by decision: 16%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their speed, power and contrasting approaches to striking make this an appealing fight with danger in every exchange.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a fun flyweight matchup between a pressure-heavy power puncher and a rangy, accurate striker, with finish potential on both sides.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an exciting clash of styles that pits Kavanagh's slick outside movement against Temirov's relentless, fight-ending pocket power.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    26%.

  • Claude

    18%.

  • Gemini

    21%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

  • Claude

    35%.

  • Gemini

    36%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 12%.

  • Claude

    Round 3: 10%.

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 10%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 76%, submission 25%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 64%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 72%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 16%, Temirov 29%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 62%. If it goes longer: Temirov 59%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 13%, Temirov 22%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 69%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 66%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 11%, Temirov 25%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 76%, Temirov 24%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 41%, Temirov 59%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 70%, Temirov 30%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could take control if his kicks repeatedly interrupt Temirov’s entries. Temirov could overwhelm him if pressure keeps Kavanagh trapped along the fence.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov could dominate if his takedowns land early and Kavanagh, who is on a quick turnaround after a submission loss, cannot get back to his feet.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could make this look one-sided if his lateral movement completely neutralizes Temirov's entries, while Temirov could make it brief and one-sided with an early knockout in the pocket.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s reach and more varied distance striking give him the narrow edge: he has more ways to score while keeping Temirov outside his strongest range.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov's combination of wrestling and power gives him the edge in controlling where the fight takes place.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh holds the most important edge in height, reach, and footwork, giving him the tools to dictate range and when exchanges happen.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s response to sustained punching pressure is the biggest uncertainty. His strong performance against Moreno sits alongside a knockout loss to Johnson.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's short turnaround after his July loss, and how fresh he is, is the biggest X-factor.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is Kavanagh's defensive composure and durability when forced to trade in the pocket against a massive puncher.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh cannot maintain his movement under pressure would shift me toward Temirov. A compromised weight cut or credible injury report would also materially change the forecast.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh is fully recovered and has a strong takedown defense plan, or that Temirov struggles with the weight cut or the pace, would shift me toward Kavanagh.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Temirov display patient cage-cutting footwork and sustained cardio across three full rounds, rather than relying on explosive bursts, would shift the outlook toward him.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify their current injury status.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm Kavanagh's physical recovery after his July fight, or Temirov's camp and weight-cut status.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Temirov's cardio holds up when forced to chase an elusive mover for three full rounds, and whether Kavanagh has fully tightened his pocket defense against heavy punchers.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh in striking through range and variety, while Temirov carries the greater early knockout threat. I lean Kavanagh in offensive grappling because he has shown more sustained takedown and control work.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking is close, with Kavanagh more accurate and Temirov heavier and busier; Temirov wins the grappling thanks to his wrestling and Kavanagh's recent submission loss.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should win the striking on volume and distance management, while grappling should barely feature with neither fighter relying on a submission game.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is slightly better placed later because he has completed five rounds successfully against Moreno. Temirov has won a full-length UFC fight too, so a dramatic fade should not be assumed.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is better placed later because of his volume and wrestling pressure, while Kavanagh is on a quick turnaround.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is much better placed in the later rounds because his technical range-control style ages well as Temirov's early explosiveness fades.

Biggest danger for Kavanagh, and for Temirov

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s biggest danger is getting pinned near the fence and caught by Temirov’s powerful follow-up punches. Temirov’s biggest danger is chasing Kavanagh through kicks and counters until he falls behind or gets hurt.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: being taken down and controlled or submitted as in his last loss. Temirov: walking into Kavanagh's accurate counters while pressuring forward.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Kavanagh, the biggest danger is getting caught flush during a careless exit or backing straight onto the fence against Temirov's blitz. For Temirov, the biggest danger is chasing from the outside without cutting the cage and losing rounds on volume as his pace slows.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 10% here against 24% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 31% here against 13% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Kavanagh by decision, 38% here against 27% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (55%).

  • Claude

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Temirov (59%).

  • Gemini

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (53%).

Which model is most confident on Kavanagh, and which on Temirov?

  • All models

    On Kavanagh: ChatGPT (55%). On Temirov: Claude (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Temirov by decision: from 10% (ChatGPT) to 31% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Chris Schweppe (Kavanagh by decision), HopperMMA (Kavanagh by decision), 138 MMA (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Bisping (Kavanagh by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Kavanagh by decision), Fite Feed (Kavanagh by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Kavanagh by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Kavanagh by decision), James Blissett (Kavanagh by decision), Tom Feely (Kavanagh by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Mormile (Kavanagh by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Kavanagh by decision), Garrett Kerman (Kavanagh by decision), Mike Finch (Kavanagh by decision) and Kasper MMA (Kavanagh by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Kavanagh, most likely by decision.

  • Claude

    Fight Genie (Claude) (Temirov by decision) and Michael Chiesa (Temirov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Temirov, most likely by decision.

  • Gemini

    Chris Schweppe (Kavanagh by decision), HopperMMA (Kavanagh by decision), 138 MMA (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Bisping (Kavanagh by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Kavanagh by decision), Fite Feed (Kavanagh by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Kavanagh by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Kavanagh by decision), James Blissett (Kavanagh by decision), Tom Feely (Kavanagh by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Mormile (Kavanagh by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Kavanagh by decision), Garrett Kerman (Kavanagh by decision), Mike Finch (Kavanagh by decision) and Kasper MMA (Kavanagh by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Kavanagh, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 7%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

  • Claude

    No.

  • Gemini

    No.

ChatGPT

Pick

Kavanagh

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Temirov by KO/TKO, about 33 in 100

Win chance: Kavanagh 55%, Temirov 44%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Temirov by KO/TKO33%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov’s early punching power and stoppage of Erceg make a knockout his clearest route. Kavanagh’s knockout loss to Johnson shows the danger of sustained exchanges.

  2. Kavanagh by decision32%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s reach, varied striking and five-round win over Moreno support a points victory if he manages distance. His stronger overall opposition provides a narrow confidence edge.

  3. Kavanagh by KO/TKO19%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh has the speed and counterpunching power to punish aggressive entries. Temirov’s forward pressure could create openings for clean, damaging counters.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Kavanagh KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%; Temirov KO/TKO 18%, submission <1%.
  2. Round 2: Kavanagh KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%; Temirov KO/TKO 10%, submission <1%.
  3. Round 3: Kavanagh KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%; Temirov KO/TKO 5%, submission <1%.
  4. Decision: Kavanagh 32%; Temirov 10%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in ChatGPT's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Kavanagh KO/TKO7%7%5%—
Kavanagh Submission1%2%2%—
Kavanagh Decision———32%
Temirov KO/TKO18%10%5%—
Temirov Submission<1%<1%<1%—
Temirov Decision———10%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Temirov: 44%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Temirov: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Kavanagh: 39%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Temirov: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov by KO/TKO: 33% (about 33 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Temirov by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Temirov by KO/TKO (33%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (32%); 3. Kavanagh by KO/TKO (19%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov’s early punching power and stoppage of Erceg make a knockout his clearest route. Kavanagh’s knockout loss to Johnson shows the danger of sustained exchanges.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh’s reach, varied striking and five-round win over Moreno support a points victory if he manages distance. His stronger overall opposition provides a narrow confidence edge.
    • Kavanagh by KO/TKO: Kavanagh has the speed and counterpunching power to punish aggressive entries. Temirov’s forward pressure could create openings for clean, damaging counters.
Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Temirov by decision (31%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (22%); 3. Temirov by KO/TKO (21%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov's wrestling, volume and power should win more rounds against a Kavanagh on a short turnaround.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh's accuracy and range striking could take a close decision if he stuffs takedowns.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov just stopped Erceg and carries power that could finish a tired Kavanagh.

  • Gemini

    1. Kavanagh by decision (38%); 2. Temirov by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Temirov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh holds notable height, reach, and footwork advantages, allowing him to manage distance and out-point Temirov over three rounds.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov carries explosive pocket power, and Kavanagh has previously shown defensive vulnerability against heavy punchers.
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov can bank rounds on damage and impact with fast forward bursts even if he does not find a clean finish.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 55% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Temirov's 59% win chance.

  • Gemini

    5 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 53% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Kavanagh win?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh wins 55%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%, decision 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh wins 53%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

How does Temirov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%, decision 10%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Temirov wins 59%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%, decision 31%.

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh to weather Temirov’s explosive attacks and win rounds with cleaner distance striking, though an early stoppage is a serious threat.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov should use power punches and wrestling to control a short-notice Kavanagh, most likely winning a decision, with a real chance of a late stoppage.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Lone’er Kavanagh should use his reach and footwork to control distance and outpoint Ramazan Temirov over three rounds, provided he survives Temirov's early knockout power.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 26%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 18%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 64% (from 55%), Temirov 35% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should find more opportunities to establish his kicks and counters as the opening intensity settles. Temirov can still win rounds with pressure, so surviving the first does not settle the matchup.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 39% (from 39%), Temirov 59% (from 59%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it reaches round two, the fight likely becomes a grind where Temirov's wrestling and volume wear on Kavanagh, though Kavanagh's accurate counters keep him live.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 60% (from 53%), Temirov 39% (from 46%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once the opening round passes, Temirov's primary knockout window narrows and his forward blitzes become easier to read. Kavanagh is then well positioned to settle into a steady rhythm and pick him apart from range.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1 (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov’s clearest route is to close distance early, force Kavanagh toward the fence and land powerful combinations before Kavanagh establishes his rhythm.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Kavanagh's most likely upset: Kavanagh by decision (22%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh keeps distance, lands accurate counters and pot-shots, defends takedowns, and takes a clear rounds-based decision or catches Temirov coming in.

  • Gemini

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by decision (16%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is most likely to win by closing the distance with explosive forward bursts to catch Kavanagh in the pocket for an early stoppage, or by stealing rounds with big damaging moments.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should attack the legs, counter Temirov’s entries and exit exchanges at an angle, mixing in takedowns when available. Temirov should cut off the cage and deliver compact combinations without overextending.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: stay at range, win the accuracy battle and stuff takedowns. Temirov: pressure with power punches, mix in wrestling to drain Kavanagh and finish with ground-and-pound or a late TKO.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's best path is to stay on the move, use long kicks and straight punches to maintain distance, and win a clear decision. Temirov's best path is to cut off the cage early and force chaotic pocket exchanges where his heavy hands can find a finish.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Kavanagh can land low kicks and leave safely, and whether Temirov reaches punching range without absorbing clean counters.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov closes distance and gets Kavanagh to the fence or ground, and whether Kavanagh's counters land cleanly as Temirov enters.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov can cut off the cage to trap Kavanagh near the fence, and whether Kavanagh keeps his chin protected when exiting pocket exchanges.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Kavanagh, Claude: Temirov, Gemini: Kavanagh).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by KO/TKO (33%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by decision (31%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Kavanagh by decision (38%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    7% (about 7 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6% (about 6 in 100).

  • Gemini

    5% (about 5 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 52%, submission 5%, decision 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 40%, submission 5%, decision 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov: 34%, against 23% for Kavanagh.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Temirov: 28%, against 17% for Kavanagh.

  • Gemini

    Temirov: 30%, against 15% for Kavanagh.

Can Kavanagh get the finish? Can Temirov?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 23% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%). Temirov: 34% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Kavanagh: 17% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Temirov: 28% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%). Temirov: 30% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 1%. Temirov is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 4%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 7%. Temirov is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 2%. Temirov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 39%.

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh by decision: 32%. Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1: 18%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Kavanagh by decision: 22%. Temirov by decision: 31%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38%. Temirov by decision: 16%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their speed, power and contrasting approaches to striking make this an appealing fight with danger in every exchange.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a fun flyweight matchup between a pressure-heavy power puncher and a rangy, accurate striker, with finish potential on both sides.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an exciting clash of styles that pits Kavanagh's slick outside movement against Temirov's relentless, fight-ending pocket power.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    26%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    18%.

  • Gemini

    21%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    35%.

  • Gemini

    36%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 12%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 3: 10%.

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 10%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 76%, submission 25%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 64%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 72%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 16%, Temirov 29%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 62%. If it goes longer: Temirov 59%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 13%, Temirov 22%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 69%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 66%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 11%, Temirov 25%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 76%, Temirov 24%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 41%, Temirov 59%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 70%, Temirov 30%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could take control if his kicks repeatedly interrupt Temirov’s entries. Temirov could overwhelm him if pressure keeps Kavanagh trapped along the fence.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov could dominate if his takedowns land early and Kavanagh, who is on a quick turnaround after a submission loss, cannot get back to his feet.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could make this look one-sided if his lateral movement completely neutralizes Temirov's entries, while Temirov could make it brief and one-sided with an early knockout in the pocket.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s reach and more varied distance striking give him the narrow edge: he has more ways to score while keeping Temirov outside his strongest range.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov's combination of wrestling and power gives him the edge in controlling where the fight takes place.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh holds the most important edge in height, reach, and footwork, giving him the tools to dictate range and when exchanges happen.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s response to sustained punching pressure is the biggest uncertainty. His strong performance against Moreno sits alongside a knockout loss to Johnson.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's short turnaround after his July loss, and how fresh he is, is the biggest X-factor.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is Kavanagh's defensive composure and durability when forced to trade in the pocket against a massive puncher.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh cannot maintain his movement under pressure would shift me toward Temirov. A compromised weight cut or credible injury report would also materially change the forecast.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh is fully recovered and has a strong takedown defense plan, or that Temirov struggles with the weight cut or the pace, would shift me toward Kavanagh.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Temirov display patient cage-cutting footwork and sustained cardio across three full rounds, rather than relying on explosive bursts, would shift the outlook toward him.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify their current injury status.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm Kavanagh's physical recovery after his July fight, or Temirov's camp and weight-cut status.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Temirov's cardio holds up when forced to chase an elusive mover for three full rounds, and whether Kavanagh has fully tightened his pocket defense against heavy punchers.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh in striking through range and variety, while Temirov carries the greater early knockout threat. I lean Kavanagh in offensive grappling because he has shown more sustained takedown and control work.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking is close, with Kavanagh more accurate and Temirov heavier and busier; Temirov wins the grappling thanks to his wrestling and Kavanagh's recent submission loss.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should win the striking on volume and distance management, while grappling should barely feature with neither fighter relying on a submission game.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is slightly better placed later because he has completed five rounds successfully against Moreno. Temirov has won a full-length UFC fight too, so a dramatic fade should not be assumed.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is better placed later because of his volume and wrestling pressure, while Kavanagh is on a quick turnaround.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is much better placed in the later rounds because his technical range-control style ages well as Temirov's early explosiveness fades.

Biggest danger for Kavanagh, and for Temirov

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s biggest danger is getting pinned near the fence and caught by Temirov’s powerful follow-up punches. Temirov’s biggest danger is chasing Kavanagh through kicks and counters until he falls behind or gets hurt.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: being taken down and controlled or submitted as in his last loss. Temirov: walking into Kavanagh's accurate counters while pressuring forward.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Kavanagh, the biggest danger is getting caught flush during a careless exit or backing straight onto the fence against Temirov's blitz. For Temirov, the biggest danger is chasing from the outside without cutting the cage and losing rounds on volume as his pace slows.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 10% here against 24% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 31% here against 13% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Kavanagh by decision, 38% here against 27% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (55%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Temirov (59%).

  • Gemini

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (53%).

Which model is most confident on Kavanagh, and which on Temirov?

  • ChatGPT

    On Kavanagh: ChatGPT (55%). On Temirov: Claude (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov by decision: from 10% (ChatGPT) to 31% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Chris Schweppe (Kavanagh by decision), HopperMMA (Kavanagh by decision), 138 MMA (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Bisping (Kavanagh by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Kavanagh by decision), Fite Feed (Kavanagh by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Kavanagh by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Kavanagh by decision), James Blissett (Kavanagh by decision), Tom Feely (Kavanagh by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Mormile (Kavanagh by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Kavanagh by decision), Garrett Kerman (Kavanagh by decision), Mike Finch (Kavanagh by decision) and Kasper MMA (Kavanagh by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Kavanagh, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fight Genie (Claude) (Temirov by decision) and Michael Chiesa (Temirov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Temirov, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 7%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    No.

  • Gemini

    No.

gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Temirov

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Temirov by decision, about 31 in 100

Win chance: Kavanagh 39%, Temirov 59%, draw or no contest 2%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Temirov by decision31%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov's wrestling, volume and power should win more rounds against a Kavanagh on a short turnaround.

  2. Kavanagh by decision22%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's accuracy and range striking could take a close decision if he stuffs takedowns.

  3. Temirov by KO/TKO21%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov just stopped Erceg and carries power that could finish a tired Kavanagh.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Kavanagh KO/TKO 6%, submission 1%; Temirov KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%.
  2. Round 2: Kavanagh KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%; Temirov KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%.
  3. Round 3: Kavanagh KO/TKO 3%, submission 1%; Temirov KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%.
  4. Decision: Kavanagh 22%; Temirov 31%.

Draw or no contest: 2%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Claude's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Kavanagh KO/TKO6%5%3%—
Kavanagh Submission1%2%1%—
Kavanagh Decision———22%
Temirov KO/TKO8%8%5%—
Temirov Submission3%3%2%—
Temirov Decision———31%
Draw or no contest2%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Temirov: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Kavanagh: 39%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Temirov: 44%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Temirov: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Temirov by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov by KO/TKO: 33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Temirov by decision (31%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (22%); 3. Temirov by KO/TKO (21%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov's wrestling, volume and power should win more rounds against a Kavanagh on a short turnaround.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh's accuracy and range striking could take a close decision if he stuffs takedowns.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov just stopped Erceg and carries power that could finish a tired Kavanagh.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Temirov by KO/TKO (33%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (32%); 3. Kavanagh by KO/TKO (19%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov’s early punching power and stoppage of Erceg make a knockout his clearest route. Kavanagh’s knockout loss to Johnson shows the danger of sustained exchanges.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh’s reach, varied striking and five-round win over Moreno support a points victory if he manages distance. His stronger overall opposition provides a narrow confidence edge.
    • Kavanagh by KO/TKO: Kavanagh has the speed and counterpunching power to punish aggressive entries. Temirov’s forward pressure could create openings for clean, damaging counters.

  • Gemini

    1. Kavanagh by decision (38%); 2. Temirov by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Temirov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh holds notable height, reach, and footwork advantages, allowing him to manage distance and out-point Temirov over three rounds.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov carries explosive pocket power, and Kavanagh has previously shown defensive vulnerability against heavy punchers.
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov can bank rounds on damage and impact with fast forward bursts even if he does not find a clean finish.
How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Temirov's 59% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 55% win chance.

  • Gemini

    5 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 53% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Kavanagh win?

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh wins 55%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%, decision 32%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh wins 53%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

How does Temirov win?

  • Claude

    Temirov wins 59%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%, decision 31%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%, decision 10%.

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov should use power punches and wrestling to control a short-notice Kavanagh, most likely winning a decision, with a real chance of a late stoppage.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh to weather Temirov’s explosive attacks and win rounds with cleaner distance striking, though an early stoppage is a serious threat.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Lone’er Kavanagh should use his reach and footwork to control distance and outpoint Ramazan Temirov over three rounds, provided he survives Temirov's early knockout power.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 26%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 39% (from 39%), Temirov 59% (from 59%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it reaches round two, the fight likely becomes a grind where Temirov's wrestling and volume wear on Kavanagh, though Kavanagh's accurate counters keep him live.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 64% (from 55%), Temirov 35% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should find more opportunities to establish his kicks and counters as the opening intensity settles. Temirov can still win rounds with pressure, so surviving the first does not settle the matchup.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 60% (from 53%), Temirov 39% (from 46%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once the opening round passes, Temirov's primary knockout window narrows and his forward blitzes become easier to read. Kavanagh is then well positioned to settle into a steady rhythm and pick him apart from range.

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Kavanagh's most likely upset: Kavanagh by decision (22%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh keeps distance, lands accurate counters and pot-shots, defends takedowns, and takes a clear rounds-based decision or catches Temirov coming in.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1 (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov’s clearest route is to close distance early, force Kavanagh toward the fence and land powerful combinations before Kavanagh establishes his rhythm.

  • Gemini

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by decision (16%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is most likely to win by closing the distance with explosive forward bursts to catch Kavanagh in the pocket for an early stoppage, or by stealing rounds with big damaging moments.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: stay at range, win the accuracy battle and stuff takedowns. Temirov: pressure with power punches, mix in wrestling to drain Kavanagh and finish with ground-and-pound or a late TKO.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should attack the legs, counter Temirov’s entries and exit exchanges at an angle, mixing in takedowns when available. Temirov should cut off the cage and deliver compact combinations without overextending.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's best path is to stay on the move, use long kicks and straight punches to maintain distance, and win a clear decision. Temirov's best path is to cut off the cage early and force chaotic pocket exchanges where his heavy hands can find a finish.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov closes distance and gets Kavanagh to the fence or ground, and whether Kavanagh's counters land cleanly as Temirov enters.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Kavanagh can land low kicks and leave safely, and whether Temirov reaches punching range without absorbing clean counters.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov can cut off the cage to trap Kavanagh near the fence, and whether Kavanagh keeps his chin protected when exiting pocket exchanges.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Kavanagh, Claude: Temirov, Gemini: Kavanagh).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by decision (31%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by KO/TKO (33%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Kavanagh by decision (38%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    6% (about 6 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7% (about 7 in 100).

  • Gemini

    5% (about 5 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 52%, submission 5%, decision 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 40%, submission 5%, decision 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Claude

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

  • Gemini

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Temirov: 28%, against 17% for Kavanagh.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov: 34%, against 23% for Kavanagh.

  • Gemini

    Temirov: 30%, against 15% for Kavanagh.

Can Kavanagh get the finish? Can Temirov?

  • Claude

    Kavanagh: 17% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Temirov: 28% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 23% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%). Temirov: 34% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%).

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%). Temirov: 30% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 7%. Temirov is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 1%. Temirov is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 4%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 2%. Temirov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 39%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Kavanagh by decision: 22%. Temirov by decision: 31%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh by decision: 32%. Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1: 18%.

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38%. Temirov by decision: 16%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a fun flyweight matchup between a pressure-heavy power puncher and a rangy, accurate striker, with finish potential on both sides.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their speed, power and contrasting approaches to striking make this an appealing fight with danger in every exchange.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an exciting clash of styles that pits Kavanagh's slick outside movement against Temirov's relentless, fight-ending pocket power.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Claude

    18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    26%.

  • Gemini

    21%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Claude

    35%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

  • Gemini

    36%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Claude

    Round 3: 10%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 12%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 76%, submission 25%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 62%. If it goes longer: Temirov 59%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 13%, Temirov 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 64%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 72%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 16%, Temirov 29%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 69%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 66%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 11%, Temirov 25%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 41%, Temirov 59%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 76%, Temirov 24%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 70%, Temirov 30%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov could dominate if his takedowns land early and Kavanagh, who is on a quick turnaround after a submission loss, cannot get back to his feet.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could take control if his kicks repeatedly interrupt Temirov’s entries. Temirov could overwhelm him if pressure keeps Kavanagh trapped along the fence.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could make this look one-sided if his lateral movement completely neutralizes Temirov's entries, while Temirov could make it brief and one-sided with an early knockout in the pocket.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov's combination of wrestling and power gives him the edge in controlling where the fight takes place.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s reach and more varied distance striking give him the narrow edge: he has more ways to score while keeping Temirov outside his strongest range.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh holds the most important edge in height, reach, and footwork, giving him the tools to dictate range and when exchanges happen.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's short turnaround after his July loss, and how fresh he is, is the biggest X-factor.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s response to sustained punching pressure is the biggest uncertainty. His strong performance against Moreno sits alongside a knockout loss to Johnson.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is Kavanagh's defensive composure and durability when forced to trade in the pocket against a massive puncher.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh is fully recovered and has a strong takedown defense plan, or that Temirov struggles with the weight cut or the pace, would shift me toward Kavanagh.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh cannot maintain his movement under pressure would shift me toward Temirov. A compromised weight cut or credible injury report would also materially change the forecast.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Temirov display patient cage-cutting footwork and sustained cardio across three full rounds, rather than relying on explosive bursts, would shift the outlook toward him.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm Kavanagh's physical recovery after his July fight, or Temirov's camp and weight-cut status.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify their current injury status.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Temirov's cardio holds up when forced to chase an elusive mover for three full rounds, and whether Kavanagh has fully tightened his pocket defense against heavy punchers.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking is close, with Kavanagh more accurate and Temirov heavier and busier; Temirov wins the grappling thanks to his wrestling and Kavanagh's recent submission loss.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh in striking through range and variety, while Temirov carries the greater early knockout threat. I lean Kavanagh in offensive grappling because he has shown more sustained takedown and control work.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should win the striking on volume and distance management, while grappling should barely feature with neither fighter relying on a submission game.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is better placed later because of his volume and wrestling pressure, while Kavanagh is on a quick turnaround.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is slightly better placed later because he has completed five rounds successfully against Moreno. Temirov has won a full-length UFC fight too, so a dramatic fade should not be assumed.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is much better placed in the later rounds because his technical range-control style ages well as Temirov's early explosiveness fades.

Biggest danger for Kavanagh, and for Temirov

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: being taken down and controlled or submitted as in his last loss. Temirov: walking into Kavanagh's accurate counters while pressuring forward.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s biggest danger is getting pinned near the fence and caught by Temirov’s powerful follow-up punches. Temirov’s biggest danger is chasing Kavanagh through kicks and counters until he falls behind or gets hurt.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Kavanagh, the biggest danger is getting caught flush during a careless exit or backing straight onto the fence against Temirov's blitz. For Temirov, the biggest danger is chasing from the outside without cutting the cage and losing rounds on volume as his pace slows.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 31% here against 13% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 10% here against 24% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Kavanagh by decision, 38% here against 27% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Temirov (59%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (55%).

  • Gemini

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (53%).

Which model is most confident on Kavanagh, and which on Temirov?

  • Claude

    On Kavanagh: ChatGPT (55%). On Temirov: Claude (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Temirov by decision: from 10% (ChatGPT) to 31% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    Fight Genie (Claude) (Temirov by decision) and Michael Chiesa (Temirov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Temirov, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Chris Schweppe (Kavanagh by decision), HopperMMA (Kavanagh by decision), 138 MMA (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Bisping (Kavanagh by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Kavanagh by decision), Fite Feed (Kavanagh by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Kavanagh by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Kavanagh by decision), James Blissett (Kavanagh by decision), Tom Feely (Kavanagh by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Mormile (Kavanagh by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Kavanagh by decision), Garrett Kerman (Kavanagh by decision), Mike Finch (Kavanagh by decision) and Kasper MMA (Kavanagh by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Kavanagh, most likely by decision.

  • Gemini

    Chris Schweppe (Kavanagh by decision), HopperMMA (Kavanagh by decision), 138 MMA (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Bisping (Kavanagh by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Kavanagh by decision), Fite Feed (Kavanagh by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Kavanagh by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Kavanagh by decision), James Blissett (Kavanagh by decision), Tom Feely (Kavanagh by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Mormile (Kavanagh by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Kavanagh by decision), Garrett Kerman (Kavanagh by decision), Mike Finch (Kavanagh by decision) and Kasper MMA (Kavanagh by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Kavanagh, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 7%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    No.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Kavanagh

Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Kavanagh by decision, about 38 in 100

Win chance: Kavanagh 53%, Temirov 46%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Kavanagh by decision38%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh holds notable height, reach, and footwork advantages, allowing him to manage distance and out-point Temirov over three rounds.

  2. Temirov by KO/TKO28%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov carries explosive pocket power, and Kavanagh has previously shown defensive vulnerability against heavy punchers.

  3. Temirov by decision16%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov can bank rounds on damage and impact with fast forward bursts even if he does not find a clean finish.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Kavanagh KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%; Temirov KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%.
  2. Round 2: Kavanagh KO/TKO 4%, submission 1%; Temirov KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%.
  3. Round 3: Kavanagh KO/TKO 3%, submission 1%; Temirov KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%.
  4. Decision: Kavanagh 38%; Temirov 16%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Gemini's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Kavanagh KO/TKO5%4%3%—
Kavanagh Submission1%1%1%—
Kavanagh Decision———38%
Temirov KO/TKO14%9%5%—
Temirov Submission1%1%1%—
Temirov Decision———16%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Temirov: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Temirov: 44%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Temirov: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Kavanagh: 39%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov by KO/TKO: 33% (about 33 in 100).

  • Claude

    Temirov by decision: 31% (about 31 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Kavanagh by decision (38%); 2. Temirov by KO/TKO (28%); 3. Temirov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh holds notable height, reach, and footwork advantages, allowing him to manage distance and out-point Temirov over three rounds.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov carries explosive pocket power, and Kavanagh has previously shown defensive vulnerability against heavy punchers.
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov can bank rounds on damage and impact with fast forward bursts even if he does not find a clean finish.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Temirov by KO/TKO (33%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (32%); 3. Kavanagh by KO/TKO (19%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov’s early punching power and stoppage of Erceg make a knockout his clearest route. Kavanagh’s knockout loss to Johnson shows the danger of sustained exchanges.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh’s reach, varied striking and five-round win over Moreno support a points victory if he manages distance. His stronger overall opposition provides a narrow confidence edge.
    • Kavanagh by KO/TKO: Kavanagh has the speed and counterpunching power to punish aggressive entries. Temirov’s forward pressure could create openings for clean, damaging counters.

  • Claude

    1. Temirov by decision (31%); 2. Kavanagh by decision (22%); 3. Temirov by KO/TKO (21%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Temirov by decision: Temirov's wrestling, volume and power should win more rounds against a Kavanagh on a short turnaround.
    • Kavanagh by decision: Kavanagh's accuracy and range striking could take a close decision if he stuffs takedowns.
    • Temirov by KO/TKO: Temirov just stopped Erceg and carries power that could finish a tired Kavanagh.
How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    5 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 53% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Kavanagh's 55% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Temirov's 59% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 57%. Decision: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Kavanagh win?

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh wins 53%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh wins 55%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 22%.

How does Temirov win?

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44%: KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%, decision 10%.

  • Claude

    Temirov wins 59%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%, decision 31%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Lone’er Kavanagh should use his reach and footwork to control distance and outpoint Ramazan Temirov over three rounds, provided he survives Temirov's early knockout power.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh to weather Temirov’s explosive attacks and win rounds with cleaner distance striking, though an early stoppage is a serious threat.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov should use power punches and wrestling to control a short-notice Kavanagh, most likely winning a decision, with a real chance of a late stoppage.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (47% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 26%.

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 18%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 60% (from 53%), Temirov 39% (from 46%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once the opening round passes, Temirov's primary knockout window narrows and his forward blitzes become easier to read. Kavanagh is then well positioned to settle into a steady rhythm and pick him apart from range.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 64% (from 55%), Temirov 35% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should find more opportunities to establish his kicks and counters as the opening intensity settles. Temirov can still win rounds with pressure, so surviving the first does not settle the matchup.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Kavanagh 39% (from 39%), Temirov 59% (from 59%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it reaches round two, the fight likely becomes a grind where Temirov's wrestling and volume wear on Kavanagh, though Kavanagh's accurate counters keep him live.

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by decision (16%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is most likely to win by closing the distance with explosive forward bursts to catch Kavanagh in the pocket for an early stoppage, or by stealing rounds with big damaging moments.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov's most likely upset: Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1 (18%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov’s clearest route is to close distance early, force Kavanagh toward the fence and land powerful combinations before Kavanagh establishes his rhythm.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh's most likely upset: Kavanagh by decision (22%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh keeps distance, lands accurate counters and pot-shots, defends takedowns, and takes a clear rounds-based decision or catches Temirov coming in.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's best path is to stay on the move, use long kicks and straight punches to maintain distance, and win a clear decision. Temirov's best path is to cut off the cage early and force chaotic pocket exchanges where his heavy hands can find a finish.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should attack the legs, counter Temirov’s entries and exit exchanges at an angle, mixing in takedowns when available. Temirov should cut off the cage and deliver compact combinations without overextending.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: stay at range, win the accuracy battle and stuff takedowns. Temirov: pressure with power punches, mix in wrestling to drain Kavanagh and finish with ground-and-pound or a late TKO.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov can cut off the cage to trap Kavanagh near the fence, and whether Kavanagh keeps his chin protected when exiting pocket exchanges.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Kavanagh can land low kicks and leave safely, and whether Temirov reaches punching range without absorbing clean counters.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Temirov closes distance and gets Kavanagh to the fence or ground, and whether Kavanagh's counters land cleanly as Temirov enters.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Kavanagh, Claude: Temirov, Gemini: Kavanagh).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Kavanagh by decision (38%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by KO/TKO (33%).

  • Claude

    Result: Kavanagh by KO/TKO in round 1. Kavanagh by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Temirov by decision (31%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    5% (about 5 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7% (about 7 in 100).

  • Claude

    6% (about 6 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 40%, submission 5%, decision 54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 52%, submission 5%, decision 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Gemini

    1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Temirov: 30%, against 15% for Kavanagh.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov: 34%, against 23% for Kavanagh.

  • Claude

    Temirov: 28%, against 17% for Kavanagh.

Can Kavanagh get the finish? Can Temirov?

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%). Temirov: 30% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh: 23% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 4%). Temirov: 34% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Kavanagh: 17% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Temirov: 28% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 7%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 2%. Temirov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 33% and submitted in 1%. Temirov is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 4%.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 7%. Temirov is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 59% vs 39%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Kavanagh by decision: 38%. Temirov by decision: 16%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Kavanagh by decision: 32%. Temirov by KO/TKO in round 1: 18%.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh by decision: 22%. Temirov by decision: 31%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Temirov wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Temirov wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Kavanagh wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 8th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is an exciting clash of styles that pits Kavanagh's slick outside movement against Temirov's relentless, fight-ending pocket power.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their speed, power and contrasting approaches to striking make this an appealing fight with danger in every exchange.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a fun flyweight matchup between a pressure-heavy power puncher and a rangy, accurate striker, with finish potential on both sides.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Gemini

    21%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    26%.

  • Claude

    18%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Gemini

    36%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    45%.

  • Claude

    35%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    54%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    53%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 10%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 12%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 76%, submission 25%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 69%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 66%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 11%, Temirov 25%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 64%. If it goes longer: Kavanagh 72%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 16%, Temirov 29%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Temirov 62%. If it goes longer: Temirov 59%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Kavanagh 13%, Temirov 22%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 70%, Temirov 30%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 76%, Temirov 24%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Kavanagh 41%, Temirov 59%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could make this look one-sided if his lateral movement completely neutralizes Temirov's entries, while Temirov could make it brief and one-sided with an early knockout in the pocket.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh could take control if his kicks repeatedly interrupt Temirov’s entries. Temirov could overwhelm him if pressure keeps Kavanagh trapped along the fence.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov could dominate if his takedowns land early and Kavanagh, who is on a quick turnaround after a submission loss, cannot get back to his feet.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh holds the most important edge in height, reach, and footwork, giving him the tools to dictate range and when exchanges happen.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s reach and more varied distance striking give him the narrow edge: he has more ways to score while keeping Temirov outside his strongest range.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov's combination of wrestling and power gives him the edge in controlling where the fight takes place.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is Kavanagh's defensive composure and durability when forced to trade in the pocket against a massive puncher.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s response to sustained punching pressure is the biggest uncertainty. His strong performance against Moreno sits alongside a knockout loss to Johnson.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh's short turnaround after his July loss, and how fresh he is, is the biggest X-factor.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Temirov display patient cage-cutting footwork and sustained cardio across three full rounds, rather than relying on explosive bursts, would shift the outlook toward him.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh cannot maintain his movement under pressure would shift me toward Temirov. A compromised weight cut or credible injury report would also materially change the forecast.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence that Kavanagh is fully recovered and has a strong takedown defense plan, or that Temirov struggles with the weight cut or the pace, would shift me toward Kavanagh.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Temirov's cardio holds up when forced to chase an elusive mover for three full rounds, and whether Kavanagh has fully tightened his pocket defense against heavy punchers.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify their current injury status.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm Kavanagh's physical recovery after his July fight, or Temirov's camp and weight-cut status.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh should win the striking on volume and distance management, while grappling should barely feature with neither fighter relying on a submission game.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Kavanagh in striking through range and variety, while Temirov carries the greater early knockout threat. I lean Kavanagh in offensive grappling because he has shown more sustained takedown and control work.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking is close, with Kavanagh more accurate and Temirov heavier and busier; Temirov wins the grappling thanks to his wrestling and Kavanagh's recent submission loss.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is much better placed in the later rounds because his technical range-control style ages well as Temirov's early explosiveness fades.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh is slightly better placed later because he has completed five rounds successfully against Moreno. Temirov has won a full-length UFC fight too, so a dramatic fade should not be assumed.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Temirov is better placed later because of his volume and wrestling pressure, while Kavanagh is on a quick turnaround.

Biggest danger for Kavanagh, and for Temirov

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Kavanagh, the biggest danger is getting caught flush during a careless exit or backing straight onto the fence against Temirov's blitz. For Temirov, the biggest danger is chasing from the outside without cutting the cage and losing rounds on volume as his pace slows.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh’s biggest danger is getting pinned near the fence and caught by Temirov’s powerful follow-up punches. Temirov’s biggest danger is chasing Kavanagh through kicks and counters until he falls behind or gets hurt.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kavanagh: being taken down and controlled or submitted as in his last loss. Temirov: walking into Kavanagh's accurate counters while pressuring forward.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Kavanagh by decision, 38% here against 27% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 10% here against 24% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Temirov by decision, 31% here against 13% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (53%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Kavanagh (55%).

  • Claude

    Of 72 analyst picks, 34 back Kavanagh and 38 back Temirov. This model picks Temirov (59%).

Which model is most confident on Kavanagh, and which on Temirov?

  • Gemini

    On Kavanagh: ChatGPT (55%). On Temirov: Claude (59%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Temirov by decision: from 10% (ChatGPT) to 31% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    Chris Schweppe (Kavanagh by decision), HopperMMA (Kavanagh by decision), 138 MMA (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Bisping (Kavanagh by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Kavanagh by decision), Fite Feed (Kavanagh by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Kavanagh by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Kavanagh by decision), James Blissett (Kavanagh by decision), Tom Feely (Kavanagh by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Kavanagh by decision), Michael Mormile (Kavanagh by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Kavanagh by decision), Garrett Kerman (Kavanagh by decision), Mike Finch (Kavanagh by decision) and Kasper MMA (Kavanagh by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Kavanagh, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Fight Genie (Claude) (Temirov by decision) and Michael Chiesa (Temirov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Temirov, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 7%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    No.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 5 sportsbooks

50% Lone’er Kavanagh
50% Ramazan Temirov

Market had it a coin-flip

Kavanagh defeats Temirov · KO/TKO R1

Final pre-fight line · as of 24 Oct 17:29 UTC · 5 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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