UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Round 3 · 5:00
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Malkoun worked well behind his jab, but Vagaev's power made the difference in the first round and he hurt Malkoun towards the end of it.
Vagaev kept the power advantage from there, out-hustling Malkoun and mixing in timely takedowns. All three judges scored it 29-28 for Vagaev.
UFC lists Vagaev with a 25-4 record and a 4.00 takedown average per 15 minutes; his profile also notes that he began wrestling at 19. Repeated entries and top control give him a clear route to make Malkoun work defensively across three rounds.
Malkoun's UFC profile shows a 10-3-0 record and a 5.39 takedown average per 15 minutes, alongside 4.23 significant strikes landed per minute. If he can make the grappling exchanges reciprocal and keep his own pace, he has a path to contest Vagaev's control rather than simply defend it.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
FightIQ's snapshot explicitly predicts Abubakar Vagaev at site-displayed confidence of 56%; tier LOW.
“We predict Abubakar Vagaev — 56% confident”
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Abubakar Vagaev. Self-described vibes pick of the favorite on one of the toughest fights to call
“I'm going to go with Vagayv here. This”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Sherdog prelims preview by Tom Feely names Vagaev as the pick, by decision.
“The pick is Vagaev by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Selects Abubakar Vagaev to win.
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
AJ Devito picks Abubakar Vagaev by Decision.
“I'm going with Vagv to get it done in a”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Selects Abubakar Vagaev to win.
* Acknowledges uncertainty about his recollection of an earlier Vagaev fight, then repeats Vagaev as his selection.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
JakeGerberMMA picks Abubakar Vagaev by Decision. Gives the lean to Vagaev (18:38)
“to me, and I'm going to say Vagabov gets”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
DFS By The Numbers picks Abubakar Vagaev by Decision. Expects a decision; says if anyone finishes it would be Vagaev.
“Give me Vagaev to, you know, win at least two of the three rounds and win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Selects Abubakar Vagaev to win.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Livid Larry MMA picks Abubakar Vagaev by Decision. Lean; calls it a close one and likely a no-bet
“decided to lean Vagia by decision”
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Next Fight explicitly selects Abubakar Vagaev; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (5 hit, 3 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Thinks Vagaev can out-grapple Malkoun and picks him to win by decision.
“my ultimate prediction will be Abubakar Vagayev to win this fight, and I'll say he wins it via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_4017c3 for Vagaev–Malkoun on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
The Oracle selects Abubakar Vagaev with a 58% win probability.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Selects Abubakar Vagaev to win.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Jon Litterine explicitly selects Abubakar Vagaev; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Fight Productions selects Abubakar Vagaev by decision.
“I do just slightly lean towards Vagive here honestly on the feet or in the grappling. So I'm going to take him to win this one by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_4017c3 for Vagaev–Malkoun on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Abubakar Vagaev by decision; no round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
RotoWire parlay leg by Cole Shelton names Vagaev as the winner, by decision.
“Vagaev should be able to exert his will in the grappling department en route to a decision win to close out the parlay.”
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
“so yeah I'm going to be picking Abu Bakarvag to win by a big juicy 2928 decision”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (15 hit, 14 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Selects Abubakar Vagaev to win.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Greedo picks Abubakar Vagaev by decision, expecting him to win the wrestling exchanges.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
Picked: Abubakar Vagaev
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Abubakar Vagaev over Jacob Malkoun (51% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Billy Ward identifies Jacob Malkoun as undervalued against Abubakar Vagaev and recommends taking that side before the price moves. The article makes no method or round prediction.
“Verdict: Malkoun Undervalued.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Bedtime MMA picks Jacob Malkoun by Decision. Allows 'maybe a late finish' but picks decision
“Malkoun by decision. I don't I don't”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
“i'm going to go with jacob malcoun”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun · Sub
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
MMA Lock of the Night picks Jacob Malkoun by Submission. called 'the sneaky spot'; round 2 or round 3
“gonna say Malcoun by submission in round”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Fite Feed picks Jacob Malkoun.
“I'm picking Jacob.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
138 MMA picks Jacob Malkoun, expecting repeated mat returns and a probable 29–28 decision.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Jacob Malkoun by Decision. low confidence
“Malcolm via decision. Now, for the next”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Selects Jacob Malkoun to win.
* Acknowledges Malkoun’s back issue and possible first-round loss, and Vagaev’s home advantage, while selecting Malkoun by decision, probably 29–28.
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
MMA Intel explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
“so I'm picking Malcoun to win by decision”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun · Dec
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Schweppe explicitly selects Jacob Malkoun by decision.
“Chris’ Pick: Malkoun by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
Guy Bruhn picks Jacob Malkoun, per the Doc's Sports pick line.
“Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Jacob Malkoun (+140)”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 47.6% (10 hit, 11 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
Picked: Jacob Malkoun
Fight result: Abubakar Vagaev · Decision
The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Jacob Malkoun (61.2% model probability; MED confidence, STRONG tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).
Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core Miss; Billy Ward Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Miss; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Fite Feed Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; UFC Predict — CatBoost Miss; UFC Predict — Main + Market Miss; 138 MMA Miss; Mate Bersenadze Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Next Fight model Hit; HopperMMA Hit; James Blissett Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; Fight Genie (Claude) Hit; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Hit; Tim Edwards Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Mike Finch Miss; MMA Intel Miss; UFC Predict — Ensemble Miss; UFC Predict — LightGBM Miss; UFC Predict — XGBoost Miss; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Fight Genie (GPT) Hit; MMA.SOCIAL Hit; Kasper MMA Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Hit; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; Voice of MMA Miss; Steve Garcia Hit; Andy Lang Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Miss; Guy Bruhn Miss; The Lab Analytics Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.
31 of 52 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Vagaev · Decision · R3
Closest probability Gemini put 57% on Vagaev.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Vagaev
Most likely: Vagaev by decision, about 45 in 100
Win chance: Vagaev 56%, Malkoun 43%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Vagaev
Most likely: Vagaev by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 42%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Vagaev
Most likely: Vagaev by decision, about 47 in 100
Win chance: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 42%, draw or no contest 2%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Vagaev.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Vagaev by decision (45%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (9%)
Claude
1. Vagaev by decision (37%); 2. Malkoun by decision (26%); 3. Malkoun by KO/TKO (13%)
Gemini
1. Vagaev by decision (47%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (8%)
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 56% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 57% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 57% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev wins 56%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 45%.
Claude
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%, decision 37%.
Gemini
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 47%.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%, decision 35%.
Claude
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 35%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect a competitive wrestling contest, with Vagaev narrowly winning a decision through stronger clinch positions and effective offense from top position.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev likely uses wrestling and control to grind out a decision, while Malkoun looks to land power shots and stay upright.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should edge out a competitive decision by using his defensive wrestling and cleaner counter-striking to fend off Malkoun's relentless grappling pressure.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (36% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 7%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 13%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 7%.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 55% (from 56%), Malkoun 44% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If neither establishes control early, transitions and striking between takedown attempts become more important. Malkoun can gain ground if Vagaev's pace drops.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 57% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it goes past round 1, Vagaev's pressure and wrestling usually accumulate, but Malkoun's durability and grinding style keep him live. The pace may slow and decisions become likely.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 56% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a grueling cardio test where Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling volume clashes with Vagaev's championship-proven conditioning and counter-striking on the break.
ChatGPT
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun can win by denying sustained control, making Vagaev repeatedly restart his wrestling and landing the cleaner punches between exchanges.
Claude
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (26%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun stuffs takedowns, wins scrambles, and lands heavier strikes in the pocket for a late stoppage or a close decision.
Gemini
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun is most likely to pull off the win by using his natural middleweight size and relentless chain-wrestling to push Vagaev against the fence and sustain top control across three rounds.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should pressure into the clinch, secure top position and turn control into damaging short strikes. Malkoun should keep exchanges mobile, use his boxing and chain takedowns when Vagaev overcommits.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: take Malkoun down repeatedly, control him on the mat, and hunt a back-take or submission. Malkoun: defend takedowns, make it a physical striking fight, and land the harder shots.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev wins best by stuffing takedowns, controlling the clinch, and landing cleaner strikes on the break. Malkoun wins best by imposing a relentless chain-wrestling pace to keep Vagaev pinned against the fence or on the mat.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Malkoun can escape Vagaev's first established top position and whether his punches force Vagaev into hurried takedown attempts.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Vagaev's first takedown attempts succeed and how Malkoun gets up. Also watch who wins the clinch exchanges.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Vagaev frames off the cage during Malkoun's first chain-wrestling sequence, and whether Malkoun eats clean counters when closing the distance.
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Vagaev.
All models
Result: Vagaev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
ChatGPT
45% (about 45 in 100).
Claude
37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
47% (about 47 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 24%, submission 13%, decision 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11%, against 8% for Malkoun.
Claude
Vagaev: 20%, against 16% for Malkoun.
Gemini
Vagaev: 11%, against 7% for Malkoun.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Malkoun: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%).
Claude
Vagaev: 20% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%). Malkoun: 16% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Malkoun: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
ChatGPT
Vagaev is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 1%. Malkoun is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Vagaev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 3%. Malkoun is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Vagaev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Malkoun is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37%. Malkoun by decision: 26%.
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Malkoun wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Malkoun wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, particularly if you enjoy technical wrestling battles where small adjustments decide who controls the fight.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A decent grappler-versus-puncher matchup with real stylistic tension, though not a marquee fight.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans who appreciate high-level tactical grappling scrambles and grueling cage-control battles, though action seekers may find it slow.
ChatGPT
7%.
Claude
13%.
Gemini
6%.
ChatGPT
14%.
Claude
26%.
Gemini
13%.
ChatGPT
80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 6%.
Claude
Round 3: 11%.
Gemini
Round 3: 5%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 85%, submission 15%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 66%, submission 34%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 62%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 55%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 14%, Malkoun 12%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 60%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 56%, Malkoun 44%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 58%, Malkoun 42%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 43%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could pull away if he consistently wins the initial clinch exchanges and prevents Malkoun from standing. Malkoun could dominate later if those exchanges exhaust Vagaev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could dominate if his wrestling lands early and he holds top control for most of the fight. Malkoun could run away with it only if he stops takedowns and lands cleanly.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Malkoun cannot secure takedowns, Vagaev could make it a one-sided striking clinic, whereas Malkoun could dominate if his natural size lets him effortlessly ragdoll and ride Vagaev.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I give Vagaev a narrow edge in positional wrestling, especially turning close clinch exchanges into sustained top position.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's elite wrestling and top control against Malkoun's tendency to be taken down is the biggest edge.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev holds the most important edge with his superior striking accuracy and defensive grappling, allowing him to win minutes on the feet if he neutralizes Malkoun's takedowns.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move to middleweight is the biggest variable: a lighter weight cut could help his stamina, but controlling established middleweights presents a different physical test.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move up to middleweight, including how his size and cardio hold up against a larger, stronger opponent.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun's natural size at middleweight is the biggest X-factor, as Vagaev spent much of his career at welterweight and must contend with a heavy, physical blanket.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Malkoun can repeatedly separate from the clinch without tiring would shift my forecast toward him, particularly if he also controls the standing exchanges.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early signs that Vagaev's takedowns are being stuffed, or that Malkoun is badly hurt or tiring, would shift my view.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a poor weight cut or diminished cardio for Vagaev at middleweight would shift the outlook toward Malkoun's relentless wrestling pace.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or how Vagaev's conditioning will respond to the move to middleweight.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How Vagaev's body handles the move up in weight, and whether late changes in camp or weight cut affected either fighter.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how Vagaev's physical strength will translate against a dedicated, natural middleweight grinder like Malkoun inside the UFC cage.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Malkoun in open-space striking through his boxing and activity. I lean Vagaev in grappling through positional control, although Malkoun's repeated attacks make that edge uncertain.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun should win the striking thanks to better volume and accuracy. Vagaev should win the grappling thanks to superior wrestling pedigree and control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should win the striking due to his cleaner technique and crisp counters on the break, while Malkoun holds the offensive grappling edge through relentless chain-wrestling and top control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun gets a slight late-round lean if the wrestling remains competitive. Vagaev's longer-fight experience helps, but his ability to maintain an exhausting pace at middleweight is uncertain.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev is slightly better placed late because his wrestling grinds opponents down, but Malkoun's toughness keeps it close.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters have proven cardio, but Malkoun is slightly better placed late if he can make Vagaev carry his natural middleweight size in grueling wrestling exchanges.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's biggest danger is spending too much energy on unsuccessful wrestling and losing the later exchanges. Malkoun's biggest danger is repeatedly initiating grappling that leaves him underneath Vagaev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: getting caught by Malkoun's heavy hands while shooting or after the weight move. Malkoun: being taken down and controlled for long stretches, risking submission.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Vagaev, the biggest danger is getting overwhelmed by Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling pace and size against the cage. For Malkoun, the biggest danger is getting caught with a clean counter strike while recklessly closing the distance or losing rounds on the feet if his takedowns fail.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Malkoun by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 37% here against 46% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 47% here against 41% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (56%).
Claude
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (57%).
Gemini
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (57%).
All models
On Vagaev: Gemini (57%). On Malkoun: ChatGPT (43%).
All models
Vagaev by decision: from 37% (Claude) to 47% (Gemini).
All models
Fight Productions (Vagaev by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Vagaev by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Vagaev by decision), Kunath (Vagaev by decision), HopperMMA (Vagaev by decision), Artem MMA (Vagaev by decision), AJ Devito (Vagaev by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Vagaev by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Vagaev by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Vagaev by decision), James Blissett (Vagaev by decision), Tom Feely (Vagaev by decision), Cole Shelton (Vagaev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Vagaev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Vagaev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Vagaev, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
All models
Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.
All models
Yes.
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vagaev by decision, about 45 in 100
Win chance: Vagaev 56%, Malkoun 43%, draw or no contest 1%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's decision-heavy record and wins over experienced opposition support a control-based victory.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun's sustained wrestling and recent decision wins make a competitive points victory his clearest route.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Vagaev establishes prolonged top position, accumulated strikes offer a secondary route. His limited finishing record keeps this well behind a decision.
Draw or no contest: 1%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vagaev KO/TKO | 4% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Vagaev Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Vagaev Decision | — | — | — | 45% |
| Malkoun KO/TKO | 2% | 3% | 3% | — |
| Malkoun Submission | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| Malkoun Decision | — | — | — | 35% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Vagaev by decision (45%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (9%)
Claude
1. Vagaev by decision (37%); 2. Malkoun by decision (26%); 3. Malkoun by KO/TKO (13%)
Gemini
1. Vagaev by decision (47%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (8%)
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 56% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 57% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 57% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev wins 56%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 45%.
Claude
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%, decision 37%.
Gemini
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 47%.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%, decision 35%.
Claude
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 35%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect a competitive wrestling contest, with Vagaev narrowly winning a decision through stronger clinch positions and effective offense from top position.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev likely uses wrestling and control to grind out a decision, while Malkoun looks to land power shots and stay upright.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should edge out a competitive decision by using his defensive wrestling and cleaner counter-striking to fend off Malkoun's relentless grappling pressure.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (36% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 7%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 13%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 7%.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 55% (from 56%), Malkoun 44% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If neither establishes control early, transitions and striking between takedown attempts become more important. Malkoun can gain ground if Vagaev's pace drops.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 57% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it goes past round 1, Vagaev's pressure and wrestling usually accumulate, but Malkoun's durability and grinding style keep him live. The pace may slow and decisions become likely.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 56% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a grueling cardio test where Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling volume clashes with Vagaev's championship-proven conditioning and counter-striking on the break.
ChatGPT
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun can win by denying sustained control, making Vagaev repeatedly restart his wrestling and landing the cleaner punches between exchanges.
Claude
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (26%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun stuffs takedowns, wins scrambles, and lands heavier strikes in the pocket for a late stoppage or a close decision.
Gemini
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun is most likely to pull off the win by using his natural middleweight size and relentless chain-wrestling to push Vagaev against the fence and sustain top control across three rounds.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should pressure into the clinch, secure top position and turn control into damaging short strikes. Malkoun should keep exchanges mobile, use his boxing and chain takedowns when Vagaev overcommits.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: take Malkoun down repeatedly, control him on the mat, and hunt a back-take or submission. Malkoun: defend takedowns, make it a physical striking fight, and land the harder shots.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev wins best by stuffing takedowns, controlling the clinch, and landing cleaner strikes on the break. Malkoun wins best by imposing a relentless chain-wrestling pace to keep Vagaev pinned against the fence or on the mat.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Malkoun can escape Vagaev's first established top position and whether his punches force Vagaev into hurried takedown attempts.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Vagaev's first takedown attempts succeed and how Malkoun gets up. Also watch who wins the clinch exchanges.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Vagaev frames off the cage during Malkoun's first chain-wrestling sequence, and whether Malkoun eats clean counters when closing the distance.
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Vagaev.
ChatGPT
Result: Vagaev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
ChatGPT
45% (about 45 in 100).
Claude
37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
47% (about 47 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 24%, submission 13%, decision 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11%, against 8% for Malkoun.
Claude
Vagaev: 20%, against 16% for Malkoun.
Gemini
Vagaev: 11%, against 7% for Malkoun.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Malkoun: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%).
Claude
Vagaev: 20% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%). Malkoun: 16% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Malkoun: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
ChatGPT
Vagaev is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 1%. Malkoun is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Vagaev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 3%. Malkoun is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Vagaev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Malkoun is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37%. Malkoun by decision: 26%.
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Malkoun wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Malkoun wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, particularly if you enjoy technical wrestling battles where small adjustments decide who controls the fight.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A decent grappler-versus-puncher matchup with real stylistic tension, though not a marquee fight.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans who appreciate high-level tactical grappling scrambles and grueling cage-control battles, though action seekers may find it slow.
ChatGPT
7%.
Claude
13%.
Gemini
6%.
ChatGPT
14%.
Claude
26%.
Gemini
13%.
ChatGPT
80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 6%.
Claude
Round 3: 11%.
Gemini
Round 3: 5%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 85%, submission 15%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 66%, submission 34%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 62%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 55%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 14%, Malkoun 12%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 60%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 56%, Malkoun 44%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 58%, Malkoun 42%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 43%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could pull away if he consistently wins the initial clinch exchanges and prevents Malkoun from standing. Malkoun could dominate later if those exchanges exhaust Vagaev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could dominate if his wrestling lands early and he holds top control for most of the fight. Malkoun could run away with it only if he stops takedowns and lands cleanly.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Malkoun cannot secure takedowns, Vagaev could make it a one-sided striking clinic, whereas Malkoun could dominate if his natural size lets him effortlessly ragdoll and ride Vagaev.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I give Vagaev a narrow edge in positional wrestling, especially turning close clinch exchanges into sustained top position.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's elite wrestling and top control against Malkoun's tendency to be taken down is the biggest edge.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev holds the most important edge with his superior striking accuracy and defensive grappling, allowing him to win minutes on the feet if he neutralizes Malkoun's takedowns.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move to middleweight is the biggest variable: a lighter weight cut could help his stamina, but controlling established middleweights presents a different physical test.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move up to middleweight, including how his size and cardio hold up against a larger, stronger opponent.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun's natural size at middleweight is the biggest X-factor, as Vagaev spent much of his career at welterweight and must contend with a heavy, physical blanket.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Malkoun can repeatedly separate from the clinch without tiring would shift my forecast toward him, particularly if he also controls the standing exchanges.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early signs that Vagaev's takedowns are being stuffed, or that Malkoun is badly hurt or tiring, would shift my view.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a poor weight cut or diminished cardio for Vagaev at middleweight would shift the outlook toward Malkoun's relentless wrestling pace.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or how Vagaev's conditioning will respond to the move to middleweight.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How Vagaev's body handles the move up in weight, and whether late changes in camp or weight cut affected either fighter.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how Vagaev's physical strength will translate against a dedicated, natural middleweight grinder like Malkoun inside the UFC cage.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Malkoun in open-space striking through his boxing and activity. I lean Vagaev in grappling through positional control, although Malkoun's repeated attacks make that edge uncertain.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun should win the striking thanks to better volume and accuracy. Vagaev should win the grappling thanks to superior wrestling pedigree and control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should win the striking due to his cleaner technique and crisp counters on the break, while Malkoun holds the offensive grappling edge through relentless chain-wrestling and top control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun gets a slight late-round lean if the wrestling remains competitive. Vagaev's longer-fight experience helps, but his ability to maintain an exhausting pace at middleweight is uncertain.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev is slightly better placed late because his wrestling grinds opponents down, but Malkoun's toughness keeps it close.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters have proven cardio, but Malkoun is slightly better placed late if he can make Vagaev carry his natural middleweight size in grueling wrestling exchanges.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's biggest danger is spending too much energy on unsuccessful wrestling and losing the later exchanges. Malkoun's biggest danger is repeatedly initiating grappling that leaves him underneath Vagaev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: getting caught by Malkoun's heavy hands while shooting or after the weight move. Malkoun: being taken down and controlled for long stretches, risking submission.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Vagaev, the biggest danger is getting overwhelmed by Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling pace and size against the cage. For Malkoun, the biggest danger is getting caught with a clean counter strike while recklessly closing the distance or losing rounds on the feet if his takedowns fail.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Malkoun by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 37% here against 46% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 47% here against 41% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (56%).
Claude
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (57%).
Gemini
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (57%).
ChatGPT
On Vagaev: Gemini (57%). On Malkoun: ChatGPT (43%).
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: from 37% (Claude) to 47% (Gemini).
ChatGPT
Fight Productions (Vagaev by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Vagaev by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Vagaev by decision), Kunath (Vagaev by decision), HopperMMA (Vagaev by decision), Artem MMA (Vagaev by decision), AJ Devito (Vagaev by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Vagaev by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Vagaev by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Vagaev by decision), James Blissett (Vagaev by decision), Tom Feely (Vagaev by decision), Cole Shelton (Vagaev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Vagaev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Vagaev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Vagaev, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
ChatGPT
Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vagaev by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 42%, draw or no contest 1%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's wrestling and control should win rounds over three, as in his UFC debut.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun's durability, takedown defense and better striking could win a close decision.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun has the more powerful striking and could land a stoppage if Vagaev's entries are sloppy.
Draw or no contest: 1%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vagaev KO/TKO | 4% | 4% | 3% | — |
| Vagaev Submission | 3% | 4% | 3% | — |
| Vagaev Decision | — | — | — | 37% |
| Malkoun KO/TKO | 5% | 5% | 4% | — |
| Malkoun Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Malkoun Decision | — | — | — | 26% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
Claude
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).
Claude
1. Vagaev by decision (37%); 2. Malkoun by decision (26%); 3. Malkoun by KO/TKO (13%)
ChatGPT
1. Vagaev by decision (45%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (9%)
Gemini
1. Vagaev by decision (47%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (8%)
Claude
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 57% win chance.
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 56% win chance.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%, decision 37%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev wins 56%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 45%.
Gemini
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 47%.
Claude
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%, decision 26%.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%, decision 35%.
Gemini
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 35%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev likely uses wrestling and control to grind out a decision, while Malkoun looks to land power shots and stay upright.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect a competitive wrestling contest, with Vagaev narrowly winning a decision through stronger clinch positions and effective offense from top position.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should edge out a competitive decision by using his defensive wrestling and cleaner counter-striking to fend off Malkoun's relentless grappling pressure.
Claude
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 13%.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (36% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 7%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 7%.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 57% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it goes past round 1, Vagaev's pressure and wrestling usually accumulate, but Malkoun's durability and grinding style keep him live. The pace may slow and decisions become likely.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 55% (from 56%), Malkoun 44% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If neither establishes control early, transitions and striking between takedown attempts become more important. Malkoun can gain ground if Vagaev's pace drops.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 56% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a grueling cardio test where Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling volume clashes with Vagaev's championship-proven conditioning and counter-striking on the break.
Claude
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (26%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun stuffs takedowns, wins scrambles, and lands heavier strikes in the pocket for a late stoppage or a close decision.
ChatGPT
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun can win by denying sustained control, making Vagaev repeatedly restart his wrestling and landing the cleaner punches between exchanges.
Gemini
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun is most likely to pull off the win by using his natural middleweight size and relentless chain-wrestling to push Vagaev against the fence and sustain top control across three rounds.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: take Malkoun down repeatedly, control him on the mat, and hunt a back-take or submission. Malkoun: defend takedowns, make it a physical striking fight, and land the harder shots.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should pressure into the clinch, secure top position and turn control into damaging short strikes. Malkoun should keep exchanges mobile, use his boxing and chain takedowns when Vagaev overcommits.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev wins best by stuffing takedowns, controlling the clinch, and landing cleaner strikes on the break. Malkoun wins best by imposing a relentless chain-wrestling pace to keep Vagaev pinned against the fence or on the mat.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Vagaev's first takedown attempts succeed and how Malkoun gets up. Also watch who wins the clinch exchanges.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Malkoun can escape Vagaev's first established top position and whether his punches force Vagaev into hurried takedown attempts.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Vagaev frames off the cage during Malkoun's first chain-wrestling sequence, and whether Malkoun eats clean counters when closing the distance.
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Vagaev.
Claude
Result: Vagaev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Claude
37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
45% (about 45 in 100).
Gemini
47% (about 47 in 100).
Claude
KO/TKO 24%, submission 13%, decision 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
2%.
Claude
Vagaev: 20%, against 16% for Malkoun.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11%, against 8% for Malkoun.
Gemini
Vagaev: 11%, against 7% for Malkoun.
Claude
Vagaev: 20% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%). Malkoun: 16% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Malkoun: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%).
Gemini
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Malkoun: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
Claude
Vagaev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 3%. Malkoun is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 10%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 1%. Malkoun is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
Gemini
Vagaev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Malkoun is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37%. Malkoun by decision: 26%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
Claude
Malkoun wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A decent grappler-versus-puncher matchup with real stylistic tension, though not a marquee fight.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, particularly if you enjoy technical wrestling battles where small adjustments decide who controls the fight.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans who appreciate high-level tactical grappling scrambles and grueling cage-control battles, though action seekers may find it slow.
Claude
13%.
ChatGPT
7%.
Gemini
6%.
Claude
26%.
ChatGPT
14%.
Gemini
13%.
Claude
63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Round 3: 11%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 6%.
Gemini
Round 3: 5%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 66%, submission 34%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 85%, submission 15%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 55%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 14%, Malkoun 12%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 62%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 60%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 58%, Malkoun 42%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 56%, Malkoun 44%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 43%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could dominate if his wrestling lands early and he holds top control for most of the fight. Malkoun could run away with it only if he stops takedowns and lands cleanly.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could pull away if he consistently wins the initial clinch exchanges and prevents Malkoun from standing. Malkoun could dominate later if those exchanges exhaust Vagaev.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Malkoun cannot secure takedowns, Vagaev could make it a one-sided striking clinic, whereas Malkoun could dominate if his natural size lets him effortlessly ragdoll and ride Vagaev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's elite wrestling and top control against Malkoun's tendency to be taken down is the biggest edge.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I give Vagaev a narrow edge in positional wrestling, especially turning close clinch exchanges into sustained top position.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev holds the most important edge with his superior striking accuracy and defensive grappling, allowing him to win minutes on the feet if he neutralizes Malkoun's takedowns.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move up to middleweight, including how his size and cardio hold up against a larger, stronger opponent.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move to middleweight is the biggest variable: a lighter weight cut could help his stamina, but controlling established middleweights presents a different physical test.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun's natural size at middleweight is the biggest X-factor, as Vagaev spent much of his career at welterweight and must contend with a heavy, physical blanket.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early signs that Vagaev's takedowns are being stuffed, or that Malkoun is badly hurt or tiring, would shift my view.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Malkoun can repeatedly separate from the clinch without tiring would shift my forecast toward him, particularly if he also controls the standing exchanges.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a poor weight cut or diminished cardio for Vagaev at middleweight would shift the outlook toward Malkoun's relentless wrestling pace.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How Vagaev's body handles the move up in weight, and whether late changes in camp or weight cut affected either fighter.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or how Vagaev's conditioning will respond to the move to middleweight.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how Vagaev's physical strength will translate against a dedicated, natural middleweight grinder like Malkoun inside the UFC cage.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun should win the striking thanks to better volume and accuracy. Vagaev should win the grappling thanks to superior wrestling pedigree and control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Malkoun in open-space striking through his boxing and activity. I lean Vagaev in grappling through positional control, although Malkoun's repeated attacks make that edge uncertain.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should win the striking due to his cleaner technique and crisp counters on the break, while Malkoun holds the offensive grappling edge through relentless chain-wrestling and top control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev is slightly better placed late because his wrestling grinds opponents down, but Malkoun's toughness keeps it close.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun gets a slight late-round lean if the wrestling remains competitive. Vagaev's longer-fight experience helps, but his ability to maintain an exhausting pace at middleweight is uncertain.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters have proven cardio, but Malkoun is slightly better placed late if he can make Vagaev carry his natural middleweight size in grueling wrestling exchanges.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: getting caught by Malkoun's heavy hands while shooting or after the weight move. Malkoun: being taken down and controlled for long stretches, risking submission.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's biggest danger is spending too much energy on unsuccessful wrestling and losing the later exchanges. Malkoun's biggest danger is repeatedly initiating grappling that leaves him underneath Vagaev.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Vagaev, the biggest danger is getting overwhelmed by Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling pace and size against the cage. For Malkoun, the biggest danger is getting caught with a clean counter strike while recklessly closing the distance or losing rounds on the feet if his takedowns fail.
Claude
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 37% here against 46% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Malkoun by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 47% here against 41% on average for the others.
Claude
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (57%).
ChatGPT
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (56%).
Claude
On Vagaev: Gemini (57%). On Malkoun: ChatGPT (43%).
Claude
Vagaev by decision: from 37% (Claude) to 47% (Gemini).
Claude
Fight Productions (Vagaev by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Vagaev by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Vagaev by decision), Kunath (Vagaev by decision), HopperMMA (Vagaev by decision), Artem MMA (Vagaev by decision), AJ Devito (Vagaev by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Vagaev by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Vagaev by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Vagaev by decision), James Blissett (Vagaev by decision), Tom Feely (Vagaev by decision), Cole Shelton (Vagaev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Vagaev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Vagaev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Vagaev, most likely by decision.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Claude
Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vagaev by decision, about 47 in 100
Win chance: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 42%, draw or no contest 2%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev combines proven championship-level grappling defense with cleaner technical striking and strong cage control. In a grinding affair, his defensive wrestling and crisp counters on the break allow him to win rounds on the scorecards.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun sets a relentless chain-wrestling pace with elite cardio and natural size at middleweight. If he can push Vagaev against the fence and sustain top control across three rounds, he can grind out a decision victory.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun has shown vulnerability to clean power strikes when closing distance recklessly. Vagaev possesses enough counter-striking accuracy and ground-and-pound pressure to capitalize on a scramble or failed takedown entry.
Draw or no contest: 2%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vagaev KO/TKO | 3% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Vagaev Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Vagaev Decision | — | — | — | 47% |
| Malkoun KO/TKO | 2% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Malkoun Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Malkoun Decision | — | — | — | 35% |
| Draw or no contest | 2% | |||
Gemini
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Vagaev: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Malkoun: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
1. Vagaev by decision (47%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (8%)
ChatGPT
1. Vagaev by decision (45%); 2. Malkoun by decision (35%); 3. Vagaev by KO/TKO (9%)
Claude
1. Vagaev by decision (37%); 2. Malkoun by decision (26%); 3. Malkoun by KO/TKO (13%)
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 57% win chance.
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vagaev's 56% win chance.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 37%. Decision: 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 47%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev wins 56%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 45%.
Claude
Vagaev wins 57%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%, decision 37%.
Gemini
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 35%.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%, decision 35%.
Claude
Malkoun wins 42%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%, decision 26%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should edge out a competitive decision by using his defensive wrestling and cleaner counter-striking to fend off Malkoun's relentless grappling pressure.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect a competitive wrestling contest, with Vagaev narrowly winning a decision through stronger clinch positions and effective offense from top position.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev likely uses wrestling and control to grind out a decision, while Malkoun looks to land power shots and stay upright.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 7%.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (36% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 7%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 13%.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 56% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a grueling cardio test where Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling volume clashes with Vagaev's championship-proven conditioning and counter-striking on the break.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 55% (from 56%), Malkoun 44% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If neither establishes control early, transitions and striking between takedown attempts become more important. Malkoun can gain ground if Vagaev's pace drops.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Vagaev 57% (from 57%), Malkoun 42% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it goes past round 1, Vagaev's pressure and wrestling usually accumulate, but Malkoun's durability and grinding style keep him live. The pace may slow and decisions become likely.
Gemini
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun is most likely to pull off the win by using his natural middleweight size and relentless chain-wrestling to push Vagaev against the fence and sustain top control across three rounds.
ChatGPT
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (35%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun can win by denying sustained control, making Vagaev repeatedly restart his wrestling and landing the cleaner punches between exchanges.
Claude
Malkoun's most likely upset: Malkoun by decision (26%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun stuffs takedowns, wins scrambles, and lands heavier strikes in the pocket for a late stoppage or a close decision.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev wins best by stuffing takedowns, controlling the clinch, and landing cleaner strikes on the break. Malkoun wins best by imposing a relentless chain-wrestling pace to keep Vagaev pinned against the fence or on the mat.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should pressure into the clinch, secure top position and turn control into damaging short strikes. Malkoun should keep exchanges mobile, use his boxing and chain takedowns when Vagaev overcommits.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: take Malkoun down repeatedly, control him on the mat, and hunt a back-take or submission. Malkoun: defend takedowns, make it a physical striking fight, and land the harder shots.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Vagaev frames off the cage during Malkoun's first chain-wrestling sequence, and whether Malkoun eats clean counters when closing the distance.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Malkoun can escape Vagaev's first established top position and whether his punches force Vagaev into hurried takedown attempts.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Vagaev's first takedown attempts succeed and how Malkoun gets up. Also watch who wins the clinch exchanges.
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Vagaev.
Gemini
Result: Vagaev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
47% (about 47 in 100).
ChatGPT
45% (about 45 in 100).
Claude
37% (about 37 in 100).
Gemini
KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 16%, submission 3%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 24%, submission 13%, decision 63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
Vagaev: 11%, against 7% for Malkoun.
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11%, against 8% for Malkoun.
Claude
Vagaev: 20%, against 16% for Malkoun.
Gemini
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%). Malkoun: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
ChatGPT
Vagaev: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Malkoun: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%).
Claude
Vagaev: 20% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 10%). Malkoun: 16% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Vagaev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Malkoun is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 1%. Malkoun is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Vagaev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 3%. Malkoun is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: 47%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
ChatGPT
Vagaev by decision: 45%. Malkoun by decision: 35%.
Claude
Vagaev by decision: 37%. Malkoun by decision: 26%.
Gemini
Malkoun wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Malkoun wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans who appreciate high-level tactical grappling scrambles and grueling cage-control battles, though action seekers may find it slow.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, particularly if you enjoy technical wrestling battles where small adjustments decide who controls the fight.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A decent grappler-versus-puncher matchup with real stylistic tension, though not a marquee fight.
Gemini
6%.
ChatGPT
7%.
Claude
13%.
Gemini
13%.
ChatGPT
14%.
Claude
26%.
Gemini
81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
63%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Round 3: 5%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 6%.
Claude
Round 3: 11%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 85%, submission 15%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 66%, submission 34%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 60%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 62%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 8%, Malkoun 5%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 55%. If it goes longer: Vagaev 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Vagaev 14%, Malkoun 12%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 57%, Malkoun 43%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 56%, Malkoun 44%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vagaev 58%, Malkoun 42%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Malkoun cannot secure takedowns, Vagaev could make it a one-sided striking clinic, whereas Malkoun could dominate if his natural size lets him effortlessly ragdoll and ride Vagaev.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could pull away if he consistently wins the initial clinch exchanges and prevents Malkoun from standing. Malkoun could dominate later if those exchanges exhaust Vagaev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev could dominate if his wrestling lands early and he holds top control for most of the fight. Malkoun could run away with it only if he stops takedowns and lands cleanly.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev holds the most important edge with his superior striking accuracy and defensive grappling, allowing him to win minutes on the feet if he neutralizes Malkoun's takedowns.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I give Vagaev a narrow edge in positional wrestling, especially turning close clinch exchanges into sustained top position.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's elite wrestling and top control against Malkoun's tendency to be taken down is the biggest edge.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun's natural size at middleweight is the biggest X-factor, as Vagaev spent much of his career at welterweight and must contend with a heavy, physical blanket.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move to middleweight is the biggest variable: a lighter weight cut could help his stamina, but controlling established middleweights presents a different physical test.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's move up to middleweight, including how his size and cardio hold up against a larger, stronger opponent.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a poor weight cut or diminished cardio for Vagaev at middleweight would shift the outlook toward Malkoun's relentless wrestling pace.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Malkoun can repeatedly separate from the clinch without tiring would shift my forecast toward him, particularly if he also controls the standing exchanges.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early signs that Vagaev's takedowns are being stuffed, or that Malkoun is badly hurt or tiring, would shift my view.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how Vagaev's physical strength will translate against a dedicated, natural middleweight grinder like Malkoun inside the UFC cage.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or how Vagaev's conditioning will respond to the move to middleweight.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How Vagaev's body handles the move up in weight, and whether late changes in camp or weight cut affected either fighter.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev should win the striking due to his cleaner technique and crisp counters on the break, while Malkoun holds the offensive grappling edge through relentless chain-wrestling and top control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Malkoun in open-space striking through his boxing and activity. I lean Vagaev in grappling through positional control, although Malkoun's repeated attacks make that edge uncertain.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun should win the striking thanks to better volume and accuracy. Vagaev should win the grappling thanks to superior wrestling pedigree and control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters have proven cardio, but Malkoun is slightly better placed late if he can make Vagaev carry his natural middleweight size in grueling wrestling exchanges.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Malkoun gets a slight late-round lean if the wrestling remains competitive. Vagaev's longer-fight experience helps, but his ability to maintain an exhausting pace at middleweight is uncertain.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev is slightly better placed late because his wrestling grinds opponents down, but Malkoun's toughness keeps it close.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Vagaev, the biggest danger is getting overwhelmed by Malkoun's relentless chain-wrestling pace and size against the cage. For Malkoun, the biggest danger is getting caught with a clean counter strike while recklessly closing the distance or losing rounds on the feet if his takedowns fail.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev's biggest danger is spending too much energy on unsuccessful wrestling and losing the later exchanges. Malkoun's biggest danger is repeatedly initiating grappling that leaves him underneath Vagaev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Vagaev: getting caught by Malkoun's heavy hands while shooting or after the weight move. Malkoun: being taken down and controlled for long stretches, risking submission.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 47% here against 41% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Malkoun by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Vagaev by decision, 37% here against 46% on average for the others.
Gemini
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (57%).
ChatGPT
Of 52 analyst picks, 31 back Vagaev and 21 back Malkoun. This model picks Vagaev (56%).
Gemini
On Vagaev: Gemini (57%). On Malkoun: ChatGPT (43%).
Gemini
Vagaev by decision: from 37% (Claude) to 47% (Gemini).
Gemini
Fight Productions (Vagaev by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Vagaev by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Vagaev by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Vagaev by decision), Kunath (Vagaev by decision), HopperMMA (Vagaev by decision), Artem MMA (Vagaev by decision), AJ Devito (Vagaev by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Vagaev by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Vagaev by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Vagaev by decision), James Blissett (Vagaev by decision), Tom Feely (Vagaev by decision), Cole Shelton (Vagaev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Vagaev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Vagaev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Vagaev, most likely by decision.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Gemini
Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Favoured: Vagaev (58%) Called it
Vagaev defeats Malkoun · Dec
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